EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[rabp77]

I still have hope that they will advance the dates significantly from the March Bulletin when they have the departments fully staffed. No one wants their heads on the chopping block as Trump has been firing people in his lasts days as President . What is important is to have the RFEs issued as most people on the 2012 EAD have their medicals expired.That way the GCs can be issued once the new administration takes over .

There have been years where they have waited till last quarter to apply horizontal spill over (it's the horizontal spillover that will have a big impact, since the spillover from family gets spread to every country). Since they have many application in queue, and are processing them, there is a chance of rapid forward movement in final months. If the applications have been pre-adjudicated, once the FAD becomes current, the final approvals can happen very quickly. So i would not loose hope that full quota will not be used, at least not yet.

[rabp77]

Hello

Can anyone please guide me on which address to use to submit I131 and I765 together for the first time?
I485 receipt starts with MSC% and we are based in NJ.

Thanks!

Please review the page: https://www.uscis.gov/i-765-addresses

You should check under "If You Have a Pending Adjustment of Status Application",

[AceMan]

Thanks Spec.

I have trust and faith in the agencies and their employees who will not waste a single visa in FY21. Just waiting for 01202021 12 Noon...so that the printers will start rumbling.. we need 1000 GCs/day to be printed to achieve 262K target by Sept 30th.

The same agencies and their employees set the Final action date as the cut off date for kids aging out when they introduced Filing dates in 2015. There is no guarantee USCIS will remove the mandatory interview even.

However let us hope the new year and the new administration can bring about meaningful changes with legal immigration.

[longwaitgigu]

Just a thought
On mandatory interviews, AILA might suggest administration to keep the interview mandate. As less gc issued generates more revenue for h1 b extension for them

[spacetime]

Gurus,

I’m sure you must have seen David Bier’s tweet for pending AOS for India as of March 31, 2020. Here is the link.

https://twitter.com/david_j_bier/sta...431284738?s=21

Based on these numbers , what do you think of chances of advancements for EB2/3 India?

[Positive]

Right now, everything appears to be going out of whack. Just checked the processing times. EAD processing times for Texas Service Center have jumped from 1.5 to 5 months to 4 to 9 months, similar for most other service centers. The processing time for AP remains 3-5 months which is odd. The I-485 processing times are 11.5 to 30 months. I am not sure it will get better rather than worse anytime soon. While Stephen Miller's grip on immigration will be gone soon, it is unclear how many of his stooges are now embedded in USCIS. This in addition to the elements that already existed in USCIS and managed to visa bulletin reversal in Obama's days. Add to that the avalanche of applications filed since October and it looks more and more bleak even to get that EAD/AP benefit.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Right now, everything appears to be going out of whack. Just checked the processing times. EAD processing times for Texas Service Center have jumped from 1.5 to 5 months to 4 to 9 months, similar for most other service centers. The processing time for AP remains 3-5 months which is odd. The I-485 processing times are 11.5 to 30 months. I am not sure it will get better rather than worse anytime soon. While Stephen Miller's grip on immigration will be gone soon, it is unclear how many of his stooges are now embedded in USCIS. This in addition to the elements that already existed in USCIS and managed to visa bulletin reversal in Obama's days. Add to that the avalanche of applications filed since October and it looks more and more bleak even to get that EAD/AP benefit.

USCIS got all the money they wanted, probably north of a couple of hundred million dollars, in the past few months. Now they can go ahead and claim that since they have all those new applications, they have to up the service times. In reality, a fee-based service provider handles that by increasing the amount of resources to handle the extra load. Companies providing web services increase server and bandwidth capacities during peak times. Mobile operators increase available channel bandwidth by providing temporary towers around major sporting and other mass gathering events. This is not reinventing the wheel, but they get away with this because there is no accountability and we are at their mercy. Immigration is of course a privilege and not a right as they will helpfully remind us if we protest. We are just pawns in a bigger game.

[YTeleven]

I don't see any new data points in this tweet.. no changes to my predictions.. just wait till 01202021 and see the change in the direction..

[vsivarama]

Gurus,

I’m sure you must have seen David Bier’s tweet for pending AOS for India as of March 31, 2020. Here is the link.

https://twitter.com/david_j_bier/sta...431284738?s=21

Based on these numbers , what do you think of chances of advancements for EB2/3 India?

The numbers are not pending AOS numbers. They are more like approved i-140 numbers which is available today. There is no way USCIS will have pending AOS numbers for EB2 past May 15, 2011 and for EB3 past Jan 1st, 2015.

[subbuss]

Thanks all for the suggestions on EAD/AP. I got the receipt # last week starting with MSC (Missouri) and I am self-filing EAD/AP and also asked out attorneys on why they are charging so much. They have since reduced it from $1700 per person to $850 per person.

One question on AP filing address: Should I send the AP to
Chicago
USCIS
Attn: FBAS
131 S. Dearborn, 3rd Floor
Chicago, IL 60603-5517

or
Texas
USCIS
Attn: NFB AOS
2501 S. State Hwy. 121 Business
Ste. 400
Lewisville, TX 75067?

Everything else was sent to TX, and Chicago seems like location for Family Based applications. Any thoughts would be helpful.

[vsivarama]

Thanks all for the suggestions on EAD/AP. I got the receipt # last week starting with MSC (Missouri) and I am self-filing EAD/AP and also asked out attorneys on why they are charging so much. They have since reduced it from $1700 per person to $850 per person.

One question on AP filing address: Should I send the AP to
Chicago
USCIS
Attn: FBAS
131 S. Dearborn, 3rd Floor
Chicago, IL 60603-5517

or
Texas
USCIS
Attn: NFB AOS
2501 S. State Hwy. 121 Business
Ste. 400
Lewisville, TX 75067?

Everything else was sent to TX, and Chicago seems like location for Family Based applications. Any thoughts would be helpful.

Check out the link below to make your determination. Looks like Chicago for receipts starting with MSC.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-131-addresses

[spacetime]

The numbers are not pending AOS numbers. They are more like approved i-140 numbers which is available today. There is no way USCIS will have pending AOS numbers for EB2 past May 15, 2011 and for EB3 past Jan 1st, 2015.

You're right! I missed that. Hope they start releasing numbers under new admin..

[subbuss]

Thanks Visvarama. I noticed that.

Only question is, the Chicago address shows FBAS (believe its Family Based) and the others show NFB (Non Family Based). A bit of dilemma here, whether to go with whats in official uscis page or send it to where I sent 485 and will send AP. Would have made it a lot easier if my lawyers had filed all three together.

[vsivarama]

Thanks Visvarama. I noticed that.

Only question is, the Chicago address shows FBAS (believe its Family Based) and the others show NFB (Non Family Based). A bit of dilemma here, whether to go with whats in official uscis page or send it to where I sent 485 and will send AP. Would have made it a lot easier if my lawyers had filed all three together.

As per documents shared by my attorney, you will determine the address by going to the URL below when filing with 485 receipt. I am filing my EAD and AP separately as well. From What he said was I can send all 4 applications (2EADs + 2APs for my wife and I) in the same mail. The lockbox will sort them and send them where appropriate.

https://www.uscis.gov/forms/forms-in...box-facilities

Anyone with experience filing recently by themselves can chime in.

[subbuss]

Thats what I thought too. My plan was to send all (2 EADs and 2 APs) to TX lockbox, but, if I follow USCIS website, my EAD goes to TX and AP goes to Chicago. Dont want AP to be rejected because it was sent to a different address.
If I send it to Chicago, at least I can argue that I followed the instructions on their website, but it will be to two different locations. If I send it to different locations, will I not get a combo card?

[vsivarama]

I do not want to read too much into the USCIS instructions but a point to note will be "Filing your Form I-131 alone, and your Form I-485 receipt notice" on the above link for I-131. By the wording it seems if you are applying for I-131 separately without the EAD (i-765).

[gcwait]

Thats what I thought too. My plan was to send all (2 EADs and 2 APs) to TX lockbox, but, if I follow USCIS website, my EAD goes to TX and AP goes to Chicago. Dont want AP to be rejected because it was sent to a different address.
If I send it to Chicago, at least I can argue that I followed the instructions on their website, but it will be to two different locations. If I send it to different locations, will I not get a combo card?

Following USCIS link is a bit old but you may find it useful:

https://www.uscis.gov/archive/filing...-adjustment-of

[subbuss]

Thanks gcwait. Agree its dated, but it makes a lot of sense. I am going to send both to TX and hope the lockboxes forward it to the appropriate processing locations.

[texas_]

Right now status says uscis fingerprint fee received but is there a way we know on uscis case tracker updates when they send a paper copies for fingerprints schedule ?
It’s very important to know on uscis case tracking so we can keep an eye on a anticipated physical mail from uscis in our mailbox

[FarAwayfromGC]

You raise an interesting point. Based on how dates are progressing, I think CO is taking an extremely conservative approach, by assuming there will be no vertical/horizontal SO and distributing the 5,200 visas for EB2-I in a prorated manner. Sadly, if this approach doesn’t change soon enough, they are bound to waste visas at the end of the FY.

The fact is , there are too many of us in the line, if you look at the pending inventory for India as of March 2020 . CO being cautious is not a surprise.

This was posted on twitter by David Bier . Not sure if this data is accurate but, I follow David on Twitter and he is a reliable source of information.

https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...431284738?s=20

[idliman]

CO being cautious is not a surprise.
This was posted on twitter by David Bier.

Not sure how updated this data is. EB2I & EB3I have the same pending inventory of 4.2K for 2009 in the above table. EB3I, 2009 was FA current at least 3 months back and EB3I FA 01OCT09 was current for 6 months or more. All the 2009 EB3I folks should have shown up in the system by now with increasing porting cases from EB2I. Yet, EB3I had leaped ahead of EB2I. If they are allocating visa's quarterly, it does not make sense considering the total visas are only 5200. Just curious. Have I missed something major about why EB3I had jumped for quarterly allocation scenario?

Additional Thoughts:

1. OP. Thanks for posting this valuable information.
2. The ratio of EB2I to EB3I varies anywhere from 3:1 (33%) to 6:1 (16%).
3. For folks in 2010 to 2012 it is a no brainier to downgrade to EB3I. Even with porting EB3I should be faster for the next 2 years.
4. Anyone and everyone in 2009 to 2012 with EB2I should consider clogging the system with two I140's. EB3I folks in 2012+ or so may prepare with an additional I-140 (in-case they end up wasting majority of GCs this year).
5. ROW is FA current for both EB2 & EB3. If ROW EB3 has FA cutoff after the pandemic, that may slow EB3 in 2022 or 2023.

[AceMan]

Not sure how updated this data is. EB2I & EB3I have the same pending inventory of 4.2K for 2009 in the above table. EB3I, 2009 was FA current at least 3 months back and EB3I FA 01OCT09 was current for 6 months or more. All the 2009 EB3I folks should have shown up in the system by now with increasing porting cases from EB2I. Yet, EB3I had leaped ahead of EB2I. If they are allocating visa's quarterly, it does not make sense considering the total visas are only 5200. Just curious. Have I missed something major about why EB3I had jumped for quarterly allocation scenario?

Additional Thoughts:

1. OP. Thanks for posting this valuable information.
2. The ratio of EB2I to EB3I varies anywhere from 3:1 (33%) to 6:1 (16%).
3. For folks in 2010 to 2012 it is a no brainier to downgrade to EB3I. Even with porting EB3I should be faster for the next 2 years.
4. Anyone and everyone in 2009 to 2012 with EB2I should consider clogging the system with two I140's. EB3I folks in 2012+ or so may prepare with an additional I-140 (in-case they end up wasting majority of GCs this year).
5. ROW is FA current for both EB2 & EB3. If ROW EB3 has FA cutoff after the pandemic, that may slow EB3 in 2022 or 2023.

Porting is not recommended as you are presenting. EB1 is having rapid movement and expected to be current within next 2 bulletins. The 3rd quarter of 2021 EB2 should get the long awaited vertical spillover which has been absent for the last 4-5 years. Eb3I is expected to get only the horizontal spillover. So if you look at the numbers provided by Spec,
(E1 --------------- 5,246 -- 74,932
E2 --------------- 5,245 -- 74,932
E3/EW ------------ 5,245 -- 74,932*
E4/SR ------------ 1,302 -- 18,602
E5 --------------- 1,302 -- 18,602)

Eb2 I should be in a position to clear all the numbers till May 2011 before the end of the Fiscal.

[kuku82]

Nope no updates on the online case status for me either.

No it did not for me. But the I-485 and I-765 statuses got immediately updated as soon as the fingerprint appointments were done.

Got my biometrics appt notice today. The application forms were delivered on 10/23 processed by NBC.

[MidWestMaverick]

Hello everyone. I have been following this blog for a year and just want to thank you all for the information and analysis.

I have a basic question about the current situation - Since there are going to be a lot of people with I-140s in both categories, would USCIS try to keep parity in EB2-I and EB3-I dates? Looking at the data FarAwayfromGC, in the absence of large scale downgrading, EB3 might remain ahead of EB2 in the near future.

[AceMan]

The fact is , there are too many of us in the line, if you look at the pending inventory for India as of March 2020 . CO being cautious is not a surprise.

This was posted on twitter by David Bier . Not sure if this data is accurate but, I follow David on Twitter and he is a reliable source of information.

https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...431284738?s=20

The dates mentioned was March 2020 and that was released just before the Covid situation. My interpretation is as follows.

For October 2020, Eb3 filing dates moved up to January 1st 2015, and E2 dates moved up to May 15th 2011. It looks like they have decided to accept 25,000 primary 140 applicants and their dependents in. They kept the tap open for November 2020 bulletin also, and in December they throttled it back to January 1st 2014 for Eb3, which means they would have received enough downgrades from May 2011 - Jan 2015.

The speed at which Eb1 India moved from May 2020 to October 2020 appears to have processed around 20,000 primaries for Eb1 at that time. Eb1 candidates generally use up 2-3 dependent visas, so that was a really good movement.

All of this points to some good movement in the offering from April bulletin.

Usual disclaimer, I rarely got my predictions right.