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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #8326
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Can anyone explain this
    How 436 gc issued in eb3 for month of October via CP if EO is still existing
    Spectator has mentioned in CP processing
    longwaitgigu,

    There are various exceptions in the EOs and the Consulates have some latitude.

    Notably, there's an exception for health workers due to COVID-19. Nearly 60% of the EB3 approvals are for Philippines, known for providing nurses.

    I think CO has mentioned that priority is also given to cases where age-out is a consideration.

    In short - it's not a total blanket ban.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  2. #8327
    Hi Gurus: please move this to the appropriate page but wanted to ask about the Expedited processing options for H4 visas due to Financial loss. Has anyone been able to avail this service? When I try to call the 800 number, there is no way to get to an agent to take up the case. Is there any other way to reach them ?

  3. #8328
    USCIS is not going to furlough anyone this year, which should be welcome news for processing more applications in a timely fashion. Hopefully they do their job, at least beginning from noon on Jan 20, 2021.

    https://twitter.com/Haleaziz/status/1331256633180127233

  4. #8329
    Quote Originally Posted by 08jul11 View Post
    Hi Gurus: please move this to the appropriate page but wanted to ask about the Expedited processing options for H4 visas due to Financial loss. Has anyone been able to avail this service? When I try to call the 800 number, there is no way to get to an agent to take up the case. Is there any other way to reach them ?
    https://www.uscis.gov/forms/forms-in...pedite-request

  5. #8330
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    My PD is 2012 June and we just downgraded to eb3. When do u think we can expect a GC? How many years from now on? Provided our downgrade application gets approved.

    Thanks,
    Orchid

  6. #8331
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orchid1987 View Post
    My PD is 2012 June and we just downgraded to eb3. When do u think we can expect a GC? How many years from now on? Provided our downgrade application gets approved.

    Thanks,
    Orchid
    After USCIS stopped publishing pending inventory data, this question can be answered only by making a few assumptions. My assumption may sound too optimistic for some, but in the best case scenario you may get yours in a year. The assumptions made here are full spillover is utilized without any being wasted, and most people before May 15 2011 PD would not be downgrading. But i have no data to say how realistic these assumptions are. You could use whereismyGC service to get a more accurate date (which is likely to use more available data into account). Good Luck.

  7. #8332
    My Priority date is Mar 2011. I filed my I-485 in EB2 category. What is the estimated date for getting GC. Will it be any sooner if I downgrade to EB3 (after getting EB3 I-140 approved). Is it worth downgrading? I ask this because Gurus are suggesting that use of EAD/AP will jeopardize future Downgrade/Upgrade. Its like - we can have the cake but not eat it.

  8. #8333
    Quote Originally Posted by rabp77 View Post
    After USCIS stopped publishing pending inventory data, this question can be answered only by making a few assumptions. My assumption may sound too optimistic for some, but in the best case scenario you may get yours in a year. The assumptions made here are full spillover is utilized without any being wasted, and most people before May 15 2011 PD would not be downgrading. But i have no data to say how realistic these assumptions are. You could use whereismyGC service to get a more accurate date (which is likely to use more available data into account). Good Luck.

    With the current rules the best case for date movement is May 15th 2011 before the end of FY 21 for Eb3. To reach there it has to move forward by close to 45 days every bulletin and the movement was on par for the first quarter.

  9. #8334
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    Quote Originally Posted by waitin4gc View Post
    My Priority date is Mar 2011. I filed my I-485 in EB2 category. What is the estimated date for getting GC. Will it be any sooner if I downgrade to EB3 (after getting EB3 I-140 approved). Is it worth downgrading? I ask this because Gurus are suggesting that use of EAD/AP will jeopardize future Downgrade/Upgrade. Its like - we can have the cake but not eat it.
    Take it with a grain of salt. You may get your GC faster in EB3 rather than EB2.

    This is from the collective wisdom in this forum that anybody after Apr 2010 PD is trying to downgrade as much as possible to EB3. Simply because EB2 Queue is crowded 5 times to 1 of EB3 Queue.

  10. #8335
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    I think at some point eb2 and eb3 will go in parallel. If SO is applied correctly. Without any wastage. 2010,2011 will clear for sure. 2012 May clear next yr if there is low demand from row.

  11. #8336
    My PD is EB2 May 2013, Recently applied EB2 >>EB3 Downgrade (I-140& I-485), I hold General Manager[GM] title with SOC code 11:1021 with wage of $120K, Planning to start my own business exactly same field and plan to hold GM title in additional small change[90% remain same] in responsibility but with pay of $75[due to startup]+ 100% Company ownership, thinking to use AC21 to sign my own 1-485J,, Please let me know if this still in compliance of existing ac21 policy for self employment or not? Pls explain if any risks involved. FYI: I plan to do only after 180 days of both I-140& I-485 Which ever comes latest.

  12. #8337
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    Quote Originally Posted by waitin4gc View Post
    My Priority date is Mar 2011. I filed my I-485 in EB2 category. What is the estimated date for getting GC. Will it be any sooner if I downgrade to EB3 (after getting EB3 I-140 approved). Is it worth downgrading? I ask this because Gurus are suggesting that use of EAD/AP will jeopardize future Downgrade/Upgrade. Its like - we can have the cake but not eat it.
    Is is not possible to upgrade/downgrade once you switch to EAD?

  13. #8338
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orchid1987 View Post
    I think at some point eb2 and eb3 will go in parallel. If SO is applied correctly. Without any wastage. 2010,2011 will clear for sure. 2012 May clear next yr if there is low demand from row.
    This thing has been mentioned by many people since more than 4-5 years ago. In theory, it makes sense because most people who filed EB3 10 years ago, would now qualify for EB2, and any petition that qualifies for EB2 will qualify for EB3. However, this has not been the case so far because, there are costs and hurdles associated with switching. Some companies refuse to downgrade or file a 2nd petition, and in other cases people have used the EAD, and changed companies, so upgrading or downgrading can require a new perm. If you observe China, Eb3 is currently 1.5 years ahead of EB2, and that has been the case for most part for a few years.

  14. #8339
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    Quote Originally Posted by aqvamoorthy View Post
    My PD is EB2 May 2013, Recently applied EB2 >>EB3 Downgrade (I-140& I-485), I hold General Manager[GM] title with SOC code 11:1021 with wage of $120K, Planning to start my own business exactly same field and plan to hold GM title in additional small change[90% remain same] in responsibility but with pay of $75[due to startup]+ 100% Company ownership, thinking to use AC21 to sign my own 1-485J,, Please let me know if this still in compliance of existing ac21 policy for self employment or not? Pls explain if any risks involved. FYI: I plan to do only after 180 days of both I-140& I-485 Which ever comes latest.
    My lawyer once told me that self-employment, freelance consulting, etc., are fine for AC21 as long as the job duties are similar and you are able to clearly prove that you won't be a public charge and have the ability to generate income to support yourself. If you have a history being successfully self-employed, it won't be a problem. But if you get into your own business and within a few months you had to respond to an RFE/Supplement-J with financial information, you might have a harder time since your business has just started.

  15. #8340
    Quote Originally Posted by nbk1976 View Post
    My lawyer once told me that self-employment, freelance consulting, etc., are fine for AC21 as long as the job duties are similar and you are able to clearly prove that you won't be a public charge and have the ability to generate income to support yourself. If you have a history being successfully self-employed, it won't be a problem. But if you get into your own business and within a few months you had to respond to an RFE/Supplement-J with financial information, you might have a harder time since your business has just started.
    People have done this in the past. But first get a good immigration lawyer and a CPA who can together formulate the paper work so as to not have a conflict with the law .
    With your PD of May 2013 you could get your GC in 4 years provided there is a huge SO this year too. The Biden Admin will be more lenient towards AC21 so the next 4 years could be OK. But if things change in 2025 , that's when you need a good lawyer and CPA who would have filed the right paper work .

  16. #8341
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    Urgent question on behalf of a friend.

    My friend has to travel to India urgently due to a family emergency. He recently filed for I485 & EAD/AP in October and has not got the receipt numbers yet. Is there any impact to the pending I485 or AP applications if he travels at this time? He is currently on a H1B visa and intends to re-enter with the same.


    @admins - I posted on this thread for visibility. please move this to an appropriate thread later.

  17. #8342
    Quote Originally Posted by tenyearsgone View Post
    Urgent question on behalf of a friend.

    My friend has to travel to India urgently due to a family emergency. He recently filed for I485 & EAD/AP in October and has not got the receipt numbers yet. Is there any impact to the pending I485 or AP applications if he travels at this time? He is currently on a H1B visa and intends to re-enter with the same.


    @admins - I posted on this thread for visibility. please move this to an appropriate thread later.
    https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...ergency-travel

  18. #8343
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    thanks for the link. Good information

  19. #8344
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    Thanks for the link. It was a useful read, but a little confusing w.r.t I-485 withdrawal. Attorney clarification was that the I-485 would be fine, but the AP would be denied since this is a first time application for AP and there's no valid AP during the travel duration. The advice was to reapply for AP after returning based on the pending I485.

  20. #8345
    Quote Originally Posted by tenyearsgone View Post
    Thanks for the link. It was a useful read, but a little confusing w.r.t I-485 withdrawal. Attorney clarification was that the I-485 would be fine, but the AP would be denied since this is a first time application for AP and there's no valid AP during the travel duration. The advice was to reapply for AP after returning based on the pending I485.
    Yes, the attorney is correct. There will not be any impact on the I-485, but the I-131 will be denied due to not having a valid I-94 and will have to be reapplied for once back in the US.

  21. #8346
    There is a tweet from IV on S386 being passed by UC.! Did anyone hear from any other source.? Nothing is coming up on the news or .gov yet.

  22. #8347
    Quote Originally Posted by Noesis View Post
    There is a tweet from IV on S386 being passed by UC.! Did anyone hear from any other source.? Nothing is coming up on the news or .gov yet.
    Any S386 / HR1044 discussion: Please post in the following thread:
    https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...8454#post68454
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  23. #8348
    Thank you.

  24. #8349
    Any predictions for the visa bulletin for January . USCIS should have garnered enough information in EB1 , and ROW categories in the last 2 and half months to anticipate the horizontal spillover likely for this year. From Q2 there has to have movement in action dates if they do not want to waste visas.
    PD EB3-I 10-28-2010; RD 10-23-2020 LPR 08-26-2021

  25. #8350
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    Any predictions for the visa bulletin for January . USCIS should have garnered enough information in EB1 , and ROW categories in the last 2 and half months to anticipate the horizontal spillover likely for this year. From Q2 there has to have movement in action dates if they do not want to waste visas.
    USCIS has not approved any GCs for 2 weeks now (very few, but practically 0). They are right now slower than their speed last year this time (based on trackitt approvals). We can make all the predictions we want, but if no one is applying pressure on USCIS to speed up, they are unlikely to exceed 150,000 GCs this year.

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