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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #8201
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    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    It was filed in Nebraska - EB3 fresh application with PERM
    What is date of filing of i485 in October
    Was it file with i140?

  2. #8202
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    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    What is date of filing of i485 in October
    Was it file with i140?
    Also from which state u applying?
    I am hearing pure downgrade r going to texas
    Rest to Nebraska and Vermont

  3. #8203
    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Also from which state u applying?
    I am hearing pure downgrade r going to texas
    Rest to Nebraska and Vermont
    Yes Concurrently filed from California . Mine is not a downgrade application.
    Receipt Date 22nd Oct 2020

  4. #8204
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Thanks Spec. I took another look through the numbers - and man is the situation dire!! More than 50K/year PERMs for India and like 13K for China - and no regulatory relief on the horizon. Covid will help matters for long suffering folks - but those that entered the queue in last couple years are looking at decades of wait.

    Interesting that EB-2/3-China will likely be the big sufferer going forward as well. They will soon need spillover as their annual demand will significantly outpace annual quota - but the giant backlog of India will suck up any spillover.
    Yes , that seems to be a steady 50K just for India and another 12K for China. Thanks Spec as always for gathering all the data .
    If you assume that there is one dependent for a primary (I guess its 2.2 in reality ) , that will be 100K GCs just for India . Optimistically if remove duplicate filings and both spouses filing , I guess that will still be a minimum of 70K GCs needed each year just for India and another 10K for China . Those filing for GC or those who have filed over the last 4 years desperately need not just reform to the existing GC process (removal of country quota) but also a one time GC grant of about 400K GCs to remove decades of waiting .
    With the current state of immigration , i guess the only hope is for kids to file for your GC if you file today .

  5. #8205
    Quote Originally Posted by rabp77 View Post
    Friends, happy to inform you all that we just received the approval notice. Extremely thankful to q and spec for the forum, comments, encouragement and advice. You guys rock. Hoping the queue keeps moving ahead fast, and we see lots of approvals in the next year.
    Congratulations !

  6. #8206
    Quote Originally Posted by Moveon View Post
    Yes , that seems to be a steady 50K just for India and another 12K for China. Thanks Spec as always for gathering all the data .
    If you assume that there is one dependent for a primary (I guess its 2.2 in reality ) , that will be 100K GCs just for India . Optimistically if remove duplicate filings and both spouses filing , I guess that will still be a minimum of 70K GCs needed each year just for India and another 10K for China . Those filing for GC or those who have filed over the last 4 years desperately need not just reform to the existing GC process (removal of country quota) but also a one time GC grant of about 400K GCs to remove decades of waiting .
    With the current state of immigration , i guess the only hope is for kids to file for your GC if you file today .
    It is a dire situation. When I filed in 2010, people were saying it will take a decade for getting greened an that seemed unjust and unfair. Now it seems it will take a decade to move 1 year of PD. Its a tragedy that no one in power considers this a gross injustice.

  7. #8207
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    It is a dire situation. When I filed in 2010, people were saying it will take a decade for getting greened an that seemed unjust and unfair. Now it seems it will take a decade to move 1 year of PD. Its a tragedy that no one in power considers this a gross injustice.
    Yes it is . I feel even more for those who came to this country with their kids born in India. Those kids will need to move to F1 and then hope to get an HIB and file for a GC to maintain status and wait until their kids file for a GC. Just imagine their trauma. They did nothing wrong but have to suffer their whole life because no one cares . I wish DACA had a provision for such kids, but then legal immigration is not a vote bank.

  8. #8208
    Quote Originally Posted by Moveon View Post
    Yes it is . I feel even more for those who came to this country with their kids born in India. Those kids will need to move to F1 and then hope to get an HIB and file for a GC to maintain status and wait until their kids file for a GC. Just imagine their trauma. They did nothing wrong but have to suffer their whole life because no one cares . I wish DACA had a provision for such kids, but then legal immigration is not a vote bank.
    As the elections indicated, this country is divided almost exactly in half and there are no compromises being visible on the horizon. So we are destined to deal with this outdated immigration rules for a lot more time.

    Any ideas as to December bulletin release from sources? Theoretically speaking they can take as late as Nov 30 to release it as it falls on a Monday. Won't be the least surprised if that happens. Hoping for some aggressive movement in Final Action dates at least in Dec bulletin.

  9. #8209
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    As the elections indicated, this country is divided almost exactly in half and there are no compromises being visible on the horizon. So we are destined to deal with this outdated immigration rules for a lot more time.

    Any ideas as to December bulletin release from sources? Theoretically speaking they can take as late as Nov 30 to release it as it falls on a Monday. Won't be the least surprised if that happens. Hoping for some aggressive movement in Final Action dates at least in Dec bulletin.
    I was looking at the 2006 fiscal , where dates started to gallop from the december bulletin. Hope it happens again . With the Biden administration we should atleast see the departments getting staffed from Feb , so there is some hope still left to issue the whole 265K GCs.

    Month EB2 EB3
    10/2005 : 01-Nov-99 : 01-Jan-98
    11/2005: 01-Nov-99 : 01-Jan-98
    12/2005: 01JUL- 00. : 01-Jan-99
    01/2006: 01JAN01. : 01-JUN-99
    02/2006: 01-AUG-01. : 01-JAN-00
    03/2006: 01-JAN-02. : 01-JAN-01
    04/2006: 01-JUL-02. : 01-FEB-01
    05/2006: 01-JAN-03. : 01-MAR-01
    06/2006: 01-JAN-03. : 08-APR-01
    07/2006: 01-JAN-03 : 15-APR-01
    08/2006: Unavailable : 01-APR-01
    09/2006: Unavailable : 01-APR-01

  10. #8210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moveon View Post
    I was looking at the 2006 fiscal , where dates started to gallop from the december bulletin. Hope it happens again . With the Biden administration we should atleast see the departments getting staffed from Feb , so there is some hope still left to issue the whole 265K GCs.

    Month EB2 EB3
    10/2005 : 01-Nov-99 : 01-Jan-98
    11/2005: 01-Nov-99 : 01-Jan-98
    12/2005: 01JUL- 00. : 01-Jan-99
    01/2006: 01JAN01. : 01-JUN-99
    02/2006: 01-AUG-01. : 01-JAN-00
    03/2006: 01-JAN-02. : 01-JAN-01
    04/2006: 01-JUL-02. : 01-FEB-01
    05/2006: 01-JAN-03. : 01-MAR-01
    06/2006: 01-JAN-03. : 08-APR-01
    07/2006: 01-JAN-03 : 15-APR-01
    08/2006: Unavailable : 01-APR-01
    09/2006: Unavailable : 01-APR-01
    2005 there was no FAD or FD implemented at that time. So that is a factor now and they already have all the required applications in queue for quite some time.
    Infact anything before Apr'2010 for EB2 they should have the closest of numbers and can allocate the visas as needed.

  11. #8211
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    2005 there was no FAD or FD implemented at that time. So that is a factor now and they already have all the required applications in queue for quite some time.
    Infact anything before Apr'2010 for EB2 they should have the closest of numbers and can allocate the visas as needed.
    Why would they not work on all the applications already filed starting the first month of the fiscal year (oct 2020)? Is manpower a factor ? I don't really see the reasoning behind not making May 2010 the FAD for the EB2-I as they already have Most of the applications filed till then.

  12. #8212
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    Why would they not work on all the applications already filed starting the first month of the fiscal year (oct 2020)? Is manpower a factor ? I don't really see the reasoning behind not making May 2010 the FAD for the EB2-I as they already have Most of the applications filed till then.
    Manpower is definitely a factor because as an example EB2I who got current back in July are yet to receive RFE let alone approval.

  13. #8213
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    Quote Originally Posted by ak7419 View Post
    Manpower is definitely a factor because as an example EB2I who got current back in July are yet to receive RFE let alone approval.
    That's likely the reason why eb3 moved faster than eb2. Eb3 cases were filed recently, so with unexpired medicals had one less reason for rfe.

  14. #8214
    Quote Originally Posted by ak7419 View Post
    Manpower is definitely a factor because as an example EB2I who got current back in July are yet to receive RFE let alone approval.
    I won't generalize. I know ppl. who have even received their cards from being current in July.

  15. #8215
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    Inspired p
    I am still trying to figure out
    How urs i485 applied in Nebraska service center
    As most goes to Arizona or Texas service center

  16. #8216
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    I won't generalize. I know ppl. who have even received their cards from being current in July.
    Sorry I should have qualified it as "only TSC folks"

  17. #8217
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    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Inspired p
    I am still trying to figure out
    How urs i485 applied in Nebraska service center
    As most goes to Arizona or Texas service center
    The applications are NOT sent to a service center. They are sent to a lockbox facility in Texas or Phoenix. The following is the process that ensues in a lockbox facility as per USCIS website.

    https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/organ...ng-information

    When staff at the lockbox receive your package, they will:
    Evaluate data from scanned images against acceptance criteria;
    Accept or reject forms and related fees based on current regulations and policies;
    Verify that you submitted the correct fee
    Deposit payments to the U.S. Treasury;
    Send receipt notices for accepted forms to you (and your representative, if applicable);
    Return rejected forms to you (or your representative, if applicable); and
    Send your package to the appropriate USCIS service center or field office for further processing.

  18. #8218
    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Inspired p
    I am still trying to figure out
    How urs i485 applied in Nebraska service center
    As most goes to Arizona or Texas service center
    No idea. I have zero clue on how this works. I just know the address where application package was sent because lawyer shared the Fedex tracking information

  19. #8219
    What are the December visa bulletin predictions?
    Calculations say it should jump 6 month every visa bulletin at least, don't they ?
    Giving USCIS the benefit of the doubt, they will now have sufficient application count from Oct/Nov to get a better idea. I think My prediction is FAD will move twice as much as November, EB-I will move 1 and half months and EB3-I will move 3 months.

  20. #8220
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    What are the December visa bulletin predictions?
    Calculations say it should jump 6 month every visa bulletin at least, don't they ?
    Giving USCIS the benefit of the doubt, they will now have sufficient application count from Oct/Nov to get a better idea. I think My prediction is FAD will move twice as much as November, EB-I will move 1 and half months and EB3-I will move 3 months.
    If application count is the criteria for the Date movement, i don't think they have an idea of count as the receipts are still pending for OCT filers. Looks like they are not issuing the receipts as the order they received, because some of the OCT 3rd week people got receipts and some of the 2nd week filers did not get .
    I am thinking the date movement will be the same for couple of months and start moving rapidly .

  21. #8221
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    I feel eb2 FAD should move my 4 months, considering they expects it to reach FD my sept21. EB3 is still tricky as they still won't have clear numbers of downgrade, but I think EB3 FAd should move by 3.5 months.
    They might still consider FD for December, but more and more I look at numbers and downgrade news , I feel FD for EB3 might be moved up to mid of 2014 as precaution.
    By end of December, with reciepts/rejection trend, and possibly CO's insight, we get clearer picture.

    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    What are the December visa bulletin predictions?
    Calculations say it should jump 6 month every visa bulletin at least, don't they ?
    ........

  22. #8222
    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    I feel eb2 FAD should move my 4 months, considering they expects it to reach FD my sept21. EB3 is still tricky as they still won't have clear numbers of downgrade, but I think EB3 FAd should move by 3.5 months.
    They might still consider FD for December, but more and more I look at numbers and downgrade news , I feel FD for EB3 might be moved up to mid of 2014 as precaution.
    By end of December, with receipts/rejection trend, and possibly CO's insight, we get clearer picture.
    I think many of us will be surprised by the actual downgrade numbers beyond 2010. It looks like everyone who can downgrade and employer coorperation had downgraded (exception being CTS). Initially I was thinking about 30% downgrades (EB2 to EB3). Now it looks like 60% or more.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  23. #8223
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    I think many of us will be surprised by the actual downgrade numbers beyond 2010. It looks like everyone who can downgrade and employer coorperation had downgraded (exception being CTS). Initially I was thinking about 30% downgrades (EB2 to EB3). Now it looks like 60% or more.
    If you take a look at January 2019, Eb3 had an April 2010 filing date. It will be 2 years when the next bulletin is released and we are still a month away from hitting that date.

    I can see the funny side of this. From 2009-2019 most of the people in Eb2 had some kind of discussion at the beginning if they should be in Eb2 or 3. A decade later most of these exceptionally skilled people running backwards to fit under regular skills is hilarious in a sad way. Sad because of the rules governing the system. Hilarious because almost all of them should have been Eb3 to start with and they are back to the place where they really belong.

  24. #8224
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    I think many of us will be surprised by the actual downgrade numbers beyond 2010. It looks like everyone who can downgrade and employer coorperation had downgraded (exception being CTS). Initially I was thinking about 30% downgrades (EB2 to EB3). Now it looks like 60% or more.

    I think upgrade/downgrade doesn't matter as long a they don't use Ead. once applicant start using Ead then you can't switch the category.

  25. #8225
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    If you take a look at January 2019, Eb3 had an April 2010 filing date. It will be 2 years when the next bulletin is released and we are still a month away from hitting that date.

    I can see the funny side of this. From 2009-2019 most of the people in Eb2 had some kind of discussion at the beginning if they should be in Eb2 or 3. A decade later most of these exceptionally skilled people running backwards to fit under regular skills is hilarious in a sad way. Sad because of the rules governing the system. Hilarious because almost all of them should have been Eb3 to start with and they are back to the place where they really belong.
    With the amount of time it takes to even file 485, everyone from India and may be China gains the 5 years experience and become eligible for EB2. We should be considerate and the only place they do not belong is wait for more than a decade to just file for 485. The pace at which things are going, some may actually near retirement before they get greened and that is the sad part.

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