On EB3 downgrade rejection, it is isolated to one service center due to a training issue. There is no change in USCIS policy, downgrade must be a new application.
On EB3 downgrade rejection, it is isolated to one service center due to a training issue. There is no change in USCIS policy, downgrade must be a new application.
As per my attorney, AILA verified this with USCIS, and USCIS confirmed that they are accepting applications filed as new and everything else is just conjecture at this point. Even if they reject all the downgrades, the lawyers will refile the application in November regardless of FD or FAD as they were filed in a timely manner and there is no basis in the rules for rejection. I know our trust in govt. is very low at this point, but USCIS cannot just make up rules as they go along. USCIS is in dire need of funds.Originally Posted by Positive
No, you can check the records back to 2002.
Update from Siskind:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1321168498391945216
@gsiskind
Still no November Visa Bulletin. I have heard that the issue is with something having nothing to do with the backlogged folks and has something to do with Trump's EO on Hong Kong. But really no details to add and it's very second hand.
There is nothing written as such but they should release it before 1st of next month. So we should have it by Friday.
Before Trump admin it was always released around 10th and even a release date of 15 was considered late. Usually we had it before that and rarely around 15th. Dont remember it ever released on 20th or later.
I believe they might be planning to retrogress the dates in the coming VB instead of moving them. Chances are EB-3 may retrogress and EB-2 moves ahead to control the EB-3 downgrades.
Its either this. There is also some speculation that they are just delaying it to get to know exact number of application they get in October to decide if filing dates can be accepted for November. That speculation seems strange because after the state dept publishes its bulletin, uscis normally takes a few days to say if filing dates will be accepted. Maybe they are just trying arrive on a combined decision. All speculation.
If we are speculating, then I do not see any reason for USCIS to retrogress the Filling dates for either EB2 or EB3, it only adds more revenue to them. They can control the number of visas allotted using the FAD and they have been conservative on that date even in October 2020. Number of EB3 downgrade petitions are also should not be an issue for USCIS for the same reason as above, its double fees for the same person applying, the visa number consumed stays the same.
I believe the Filling dates will not move for this year anymore. USCIS will only decide to use them or not in every subsequent bulletin while moving the FADs conservatively till December 2020. If the consulates open up . they can see more EB3 demand from outside the country that they can fulfill, else they will start processing AOS within the country (basically the backlogged countries)
https://www.aila.org/advo-media/issu...visa-bulletins
AILA Doc. No. 20101201 | Dated October 27, 2020
This featured issue page gathers resources related to FY2021 visa bulletins.
November 2020
The November Visa Bulletin remains in clearance at the DOS, due to an internal dispute of some new language unrelated to priority dates. Watch this Roundtable to find out the latest on why AILA expects that we will see forward movement in the November priority dates and that USCIS will continue using Dates for Filing in November. The Roundtable also has helpful practice and ethics information and gives you a rundown of all available resources related to the Visa Bulletin.
FYI, Roundtable is accessible only to AILA members
Speaking about revenue, the USCIS might not be too happy with a lot of folks getting the EAD. Will they not make more money with HIB transfers and renewals ? It also keeps the consulates busy in India . For them HIB is a gift that keeps giving .
That is a good point as well. A lot of non immigrants will stop being non immigrants along with their families getting right to work. They do have incentive for not allowing EB3-I apply in mass numbers. As I have speculated, I do believe they are moving the FAD cautiously till December 2020 in hopes that consulates open up around the world and they can siphon more visas away from the spillover to countries other than India. EB3 ROW does not have any limit and can consume as many visas applied in that year eating into the spillover.If consulates remain close only demand will be from within the US and EB3-ROW will have finite number of applicants within US that will be greened in this year for sure.
Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:
I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected
Visa Bulletin Notes:
Should be out by the end of the week
Record for latest bulletin ever released
Likely that they are trying to figure out EB2/EB3 app number
Don't know what FADs are going to be for EB2/EB3
Some in internal circles (Stock) are predicting EB2/EB3 FADs to advanced further
Siskind does not know how many numbers roll over yet and not very optimistic
Thinks Eb2 is going to move forward because of heavy downgrades
From Bill Stock estimates - there is a 120k rollover, 40k each for EB1/2/3 + 40k for a total of 80k each category
ROW gets a crack at 80k, but there is not going to be enough usage as they are current
All extra numbers are going to be used by backlogged categories
Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)
Question is Eb2 - EB3 downgrades, thinks there are probably 150k - 200k who are going to downgrade
Also heard that delays are due to EO on Hong Kong and those numbers are being counted
Warning: Problems people are having in EB2-EB3 downgrades when filing in Premium
Their firm is yet to see any denials
AILA is reporting that people are sporadically getting denials on premium processing, some are getting outright denials
Recommendation is do regular processing, get receipted and then do premium
Questions:
CSPA
CSPA says age is frozen when visa number is immediately available, i.e. FAD is current, and not DF
Siskind thinks that is a problem because the whole reason DF is available is that they think the numbers are there within the FY, then why does CSPA not follow that. So opens up to potential lawsuits.
Blank fields in I-485
Siskind does not think it is being applied to EB, and it only seems to being applied to asylum applications.
FB to EB Spillover prevention legislation
Don't need to worry about numbers that rolled over already from FY2020 to FY2021.
House bill is not going to happen.
There may be an effect on rollover from FY2021 to FY2022 and they may try to stop that to alleviate pressure on FB applicants.
What to do if you already downgraded in Oct and now EB2 is current in Nov?
If you filed new EB3 I-140 for downgrade, you can again file I-485 with old I-140
If you did not do that, file fresh I-485 interfile based on old I-140. It could be tricky.
Prediction game
My predictions:
EB2 FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3 FAD will move by 3.5 months.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD may move back to Jun 2014
Nov will still use filing date.
Just PREDICTION nothing else.
Prediction game
My predictions:
EB2 FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3 FAD will move by 3.5 months.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD may move back to Jun 2014
Nov will still use filing date.
Just PREDICTION nothing else.
My predictions:
EB2-I FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3-I FAD will move by 6 months.
EB2-I FD will remain same
EB3-I FD will remain same
Nov will still use filing date.
My guesstimate (hope it actually is much much better than this)
EB2 FAD will move by 2 months at the most (01NOV09) .
EB3 FAD will move to 30APR2010 at least.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD will remain same
Nov will still use filing date.
Good notes!
I am curious: what happens when USCIS doesn't have the capacity to process so many AOS applications and GC? Will they waste visas/GCs?
If they can’t process the visas till September 2021 then yes they have to reset the next years EB Visa availability to 140K + FB spillover of 2021( which might be substantial as well).
I also heard that whatever visas not allotted in EB2 this year ( considering 261K) will move back to FB visas for 2022 year.
So technically visas are not lost they just go back to FB in the next year
Do they keep going back in circle? I was under impression they don't go back again to FB. Those visa # would most likely be lost.
That is my understanding too. Any unused Visa's will need to be recaptured by a bill I suppose . Did they do that in 2005 when we had close to 250K GCs ?
Great summary my friend!
You are absolutely inflating the ROW case here. I want to add that context here to balance out your commentary here.
My predictions for Nov-2020:
EB2-I FAD will move by 3 months.
EB3-I FAD will move by 4 months.
EB2-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could jump by 6 months.
EB3-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could retrogress by 1 year.
ONLY Nov will still use filing date.
1) Predictions based on last 10 yrs of visa bulletin data, where in FAD continue to move(although slowly) after Oct, but FD usually pauses.
2) The FD announced in the Month of Oct is usually an indication of FAD by the year end(or before). Pretty consistent since 2015.
Comparing and predicting this years movement with past 5 years is a fallacy.....none of the previous years had around 120K spillover from FB....also there was no pandemic happening in 2015-2019.........except 2016 none of the year was an election year......also never ever were so many downgrades happening......so too many odds to calculate.......
Agree, but the thought process shouldn't change... its just that now it will get speed up.
This is definitely an outlier year so the historic norms and expectations tend to break. I won't be surprised if the EB2 filing dates are moved in Q2 if downgrades are massive. Also, where is the precedent for visa bulletin not being issued until the 28th?
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