EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The purpose of having 2 dates is to avoid uncertainity or frequent retrogression of FAD.. FD can move back and forth but FAD should have only forward movement except during last month of the FY.

What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

[idliman]

Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?

[GCMirage]

Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?

[inspired_p]

I have seen a lot of folks suggesting keeping H1B status active after getting EAD (pending I-485). The reason I heard is the worst-case scenario if I-485 is denied you go out of status from the day you filed I-485. Can someone provide more perspective, because getting a job with H1B is very very difficult and whats are some other considerations if even after getting EAD you want to keep H1B. Also how it is quite often to get I-485 rejected if you move jobs?

I am at similar point -I applied concurrently this October first time.
For me, I am trying to gain some statistical data by general googling. main questions that I am trying to get answered
1) How likely is it that I-485 will be denied ?
2) What are major reasons for I-485 denials?

No real statistics on offer anywhere; but denial rates are very low in EB categories in general.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM as the work is in the national interest of the US. There is no special quota and it also comes under the EB2-I so you won't get any benefit of filing early. There is no requirement to do that while downgrading to EB3. You can't downgrade an EB2-NIW petition to EB3 as there is no underlying PERM.

https://www.visalaw.com/downgrading-...ed-immigrants/

[inspired_p]

How soon should I expect the premium processing check cashed ?
I assume the premium processing clock
Starts on the date of receipt number generation ?

[gcconnect]

Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

[Moveon]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .

[rabp77]

That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .

i think this is probably one of the latest in the month its come out. It should come out this week, we have never had an instance that i know of where the visa bulletin has not be published in the prior month. But its unusual times, and nothing is surprising anymore :-).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/...05551262097408

This is the kind of 'Service' that is being provided by USCIS. They need to drop the S at the end, pathetic morons. All they know to do is cash our checks and then deny the services.

[android09]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

I wonder if it's one of 3 cases:

1. Lets move the dates extensively for a month and then move to pull the Filing dates back again to get a pipeline of cases to process.

2. We need the money flowing given other applications have sort of curtailed and we really need to keep this funding going.

3. We really have green cards to give and the dates lend themselves to be moved forward significantly to help people waiting for years.

[gc_dedo]

Gurus,

Please comment.

https://ambals.blogspot.com/2020/10/...l#comment-form

It says, if USCIS is able to process the cases at scale, there will not be spillover from EB4/5/1 to EB2/3.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

William Stock preposterously predicting India to move to January 2016, please ignore that. Seems like clickbait.

Siskind replying:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320858448901361669
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320862173975977987

@gsiskind
Replying to @wstock215 and @cyrusmehta
I don't even want to put my negative prediction out lest the messenger get blamed. I see modest improvement in EB-2 India and bad news for EB-3 India. But Bill is one of my more pessimistic friends and I would very much like things to play out as he's forecasting.

@gsiskind
Replying to @ejtaub
Or Charlie knows there is a tsunami of applications coming this week and wants as accurate an assessment of demand as possible.

[YTeleven]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..

It's good that USPS has ramped up operations to support the extraordinary number of mail-in ballots being pushed through. Will help in mailing all those green cards out, eh?

[smuggymba]

Just for fun, Q can delete if irrelevant.

Attachment 1716

[aGCHopefull]

Hello!!

Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?

[inspired_p]

Sorry it was a bad copy paste , I think that is what the lawyer was questioning; USCIS rejected I-765 but accepted everything else as if the no fees are in effect

[rohanvus]

Filed concurrently last week, received I-140 receipt # and both checks (485 and I-140 premium processing ) debited from bank today

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

[inspired_p]

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

No. I was in a unique position where PERM was approved but 140 was not filed yet; so I had the option of concurrent filing with premium without any issues

[inspired_p]

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

But What I understand , premium is allowed for downgrade applications as well , just there is a possibility of USCIS not finding the original PERM quick enough to complete the adjudication in the 15 calendar window.

[2011Feb]

Hello!!

Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.

[gcconnect]

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

Any source for downgrade new vs amend confusion? I am thinking due to high Volume, its taking time and will get clarity in couple of weeks

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

That is a whole lot of conjecture in one post. Too many "I think"s, so unless there is documentary evidence that this is actually happening, we need to be careful not to unnecessarily worry everyone.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Any source for downgrade new vs amend confusion? I am thinking due to high Volume, its taking time and will get clarity in couple of weeks

That in my opinion too, is the safe assumption. I mean, EB3 just got moved to 2015. There's got to be thousands of applications filed by eligible applicants.