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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #7951
    Quote Originally Posted by rabp77 View Post
    yeah...of late it looks like per country cap is being applied across the EB + FB. But as i recollect, a few years ago, the per country cap used to be applied separately to the EB and FB.
    Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.

  2. #7952
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    My understanding is that if you lose your job before 180 days after filing your I-485, you have to redo your PERM and I-140, but get to keep your priority date. So assuming many of you who are eligible sent out your applications to reach in the first week of Oct, you will be free in April 2021.

    https://www.alllaw.com/articles/nolo...rocessing.html
    No, I have not heard anything like this before. Please see my other response on this. I have been told by 2 lawyers to the contrary. Cheers.

  3. #7953
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.
    Based on this explanation
    How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?

  4. #7954
    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Based on this explanation
    How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?
    Considering that EB3 Philippines and Vietnam were current in Oct 2019 and not current in Sept 2020, they used up more than their 7% overall quota of 34K last year , we should not be surprised if they use that up this year as well albeit more in EB3 category and less in FB category.
    I really do not know how to make sense of these numbers obviously. Hope we get better answers from the gurus.

  5. #7955

    EB2 - EB3 Downgrade - Anyone heard of this?

    One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?

    “We wanted to make you aware of some issues arising from EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades in today’s immigration environment.

    Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.

    This is contrary to law and past practice in these types of situation. The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) is currently challenging this USCIS procedural issue and we will keep you posted on the outcome.

    Having said that, we want to make sure everyone makes an informed decision based on the above, so please note the following:

    If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as a ‘new’ case, there is a decent possibility USCIS will return it, along with the accompanying I-485 application(s). If this happens, the employee will still retain the EB-2 I-140 approval and will have to wait until they are eligible to file their AOS under EB-2 and/or when clear guidance is issued by USCIS for EB-3 downgrades. If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as an ‘amended’ case, the USCIS will likely accept it and the accompanying I-485 application(s). As previously discussed, if the USCIS denies the amended I-140 petition, the I-485 applications, will, in turn, be denied. The employee will, however, still retain the I-140 EB-2 approval. If the USCIS approves the EB-3 I-140 as an amendment, the employee will lose the EB-2 approval and will be in EB-3 for the rest of the green card application process.”

  6. #7956
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    Yup same here, only started posting since last year. I used to post in Murthy forum a long time back (~2005-2006) and used to remember JoeF lecturing everyone though he did always provide accurate information. I lost interest in GC and other things after that and only picked it back up last year. I do plan to hang around and post and help others after I get my GC. Barring any immigration reform, there is going to be another decade of suffering on the horizon for backlogged EB2/3-I folks, and I plan to provide them with help and support through their difficult times as others have done so here.
    For someone who started posting just last year, that's a pretty good run rate of posts I appreciate your thoughts!

  7. #7957
    You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control

  8. #7958
    Sensei
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    Any predictions for eb3 india by gurus after spectator post

  9. #7959
    You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

    I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

    There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.
    Quote Originally Posted by chhablsa View Post
    You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #7960
    Quote Originally Posted by chhablsa View Post
    You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control
    And welcome! You said quite aptly that while none of us have any ability to accelerate GC for anybody else, we can certainly soothe nerves by sharing information and experiences in a cooperating and respectful manner.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #7961
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

    I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

    There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.
    Thank You Q - Yourself, Spec, YTeleven, redsox, Kanmani you all are the studded stars of this forum. Even though my wait (like many of us) for GC is forever, I always find my solace here on this forum. "Turbulent_Dragonfly" inspired me to come out of my "read only" mode by delivering > 200 messages in a year, that rate is actually "turbulent fast".
    After COVID first time I am hopeful that I may get GC in this lifetime and if a per country bill passes then that day will be true for many of us. Fingers crossed

  12. #7962

  13. #7963
    Quote Originally Posted by montyp80 View Post
    I had submitted my 485 application package on Oct 5th, USCIS received on Oct 6th. On Oct 19th I received text notifications with case numbers for all 3, 485, 131 and 765. USCIS tracker shows that the applications were received and notices are in the mail.
    Congratulations. Could let us know Which service center? I m guessing your date was current and filed 485 and not a downgrade?

  14. #7964
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar .. That will be a blessing of the century

  15. #7965
    Quote Originally Posted by tomhagen View Post
    18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar .. That will be a blessing of the century
    Yeah I am a bit surprised that Siskind supported that 18 month prediction. He is usually cagey about making VB date movement predictions.

  16. #7966
    Quote Originally Posted by richie.rich View Post
    One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?


    Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.”
    If you are downgrading with an existing approved EB-2 then you have to file as an amendment. On the I-140 application Part2, Checkbox in Part 1.e should be selected and Part 2a should be selected and provide old EB2 Approved Case number.


    The rest of the required info is straight forward as old I-140.

  17. #7967
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    I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.

  18. #7968
    Quote Originally Posted by mcmilers View Post
    I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.
    Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.

  19. #7969
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.
    I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

  20. #7970
    Sensei
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    May 2013
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    Gurus,
    Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
    Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
    Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.

  21. #7971
    Quote Originally Posted by incredible View Post
    I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
    Wow, that is pretty optimistic! 5+ month movement will be insane and obviously welcome!

  22. #7972
    Yoda
    Join Date
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    TX
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    Quote Originally Posted by newyorker123 View Post
    Gurus,
    Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
    Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
    Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.
    If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.

  23. #7973
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.
    And NIW is only applicable if you file for EB2.

  24. #7974
    Sophomore
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    Gurus,

    Do you know anything about email from NVC for LIVAOS IV fee.
    Does that tell anything about FAD?

  25. #7975
    My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

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