EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[FlowerPot]

As like you and many others (inspiring backgrounds) that went thru similar situations, came here in 2006 but none to guide thru the process and mention the importance of PERM. I was in an assumption that if I worked 5+ years then I would become eligible for EB2 - thinking about those 2007-08 missing the boat days, i feel like a moron and cry within about my ignorance. Finally after so much struggle and failed PERM attempts, I filed the case during my 6th yr of H1b in May2011. Moved many employers and locations and about to file my 485 this month based on Oct'20 bulletin. My GC journey hasn't ended but reading you guys experiences does make a difference to many passive readers like me and provides confidence.

I think the company (and HR) that sponsors for H1 should also educate on the GC and PERM possibilities.

[QUOTE=redsox2009;67419]I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.

[inspired_p]

[QUOTE=FlowerPot;67444]As like you and many others (inspiring backgrounds) that went thru similar situations, came here in 2006 but none to guide thru the process and mention the importance of PERM. I was in an assumption that if I worked 5+ years then I would become eligible for EB2 - thinking about those 2007-08 missing the boat days, i feel like a moron and cry within about my ignorance. Finally after so much struggle and failed PERM attempts, I filed the case during my 6th yr of H1b in May2011. Moved many employers and locations and about to file my 485 this month based on Oct'20 bulletin. My GC journey hasn't ended but reading you guys experiences does make a difference to many passive readers like me and provides confidence.

I think the company (and HR) that sponsors for H1 should also educate on the GC and PERM possibilities.

I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.

Same Story repeated almost with everyone , I came here as a graduate student in Jan 2003 , working since 2005, naively had no clue about PERM/GC backlog.. it was an afterthought because H1-B will expire. Looking back now I really chuckle at my naiveness . Same story two fold is true for my wife.
And from my experience, most times companies do not have employees best interest at heart, they are not the right people to educate.

[19YRSNOGC]

Similar story as everyone, tried to file GC in 2006,couldnt complete the process and joined new company and waited too long to file,finally did it in dec 2009. still waiting for the GC

[inspired_p]

What are the predictions for EB3 ?
In oct 2019 Eb3 row , Philippines and Vietnam were current then had a April 2019 as a date in sept 2020.
Assuming ~5000 visas allowed to india China Philippines and Vietnam that’s 20K visas per country ;
I am assuming worst case scenario 20K visas will be allotted to EB3 ROW ( 1 year demand ) to make it current.
That’s leave additional 20K visas to be given to the most backlog category ( EB3-I).
Is this rough math correct ?

[rabp77]

Congratulations Red Sox. Great news. Thanks for sharing.

[YTeleven]

What are the predictions for EB3 ?
In oct 2019 Eb3 row , Philippines and Vietnam were current then had a April 2019 as a date in sept 2020.
Assuming ~5000 visas allowed to india China Philippines and Vietnam that’s 20K visas per country ;
I am assuming worst case scenario 20K visas will be allotted to EB3 ROW ( 1 year demand ) to make it current.
That’s leave additional 20K visas to be given to the most backlog category ( EB3-I).
Is this rough math correct ?

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

[gcconnect]

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

Can you split further and the expected FAD for EB2I and EB3I( If no Wastage) . Too much exited after Decade wait.

[Justmyself]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

[kumareb2]

Hello gurus/pandits,
priority date: Eb2 Dec 2009
How about doing medicals now ( responded to medical RFE in July 2018)as a proactive measure in the anticipation of forwarding movement in EB2? As the medicals are valid for two years, and hopefully EB2 move to December 09 by the end of 2021...any thoughts?

[inspired_p]

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

How do you get to that ?
I calculated around 64K each for EB1 , EB2 and EB3 . 7% rule limits visa to 5K for the backlogged countries ( india, China , Vietnam and Philippines and maybe Mexico). Rest 40K are available for EB3- ROW to avail as many as they want. I figure they might use up 20K AOS max ; as many consulates are closed. So rest of the 20-25K should go to most backlogged country in the category that is EB3-I. So only ~30K to EB3-I and not 50k according to your calculations

[smuggymba]

smuggymba, I think it is better for you if you proactively submit I485-J. This will force an RFE for medicals and G-325A when the I485J is approved in 3 months. The medicals are valid for 2 years. So by the time, you respond to medical RFE, it will be 4 to 6 months from now and you will be current.

Or you can stay put and wait for the RFE when dates are current.

My PD is March 2010. on EAD+AP since 2012.

Changed jobs in 2015 and never field AC21. In anticipation of being current now or in the next 6 months - Should I pro-actively file AC21 alone or file AC21 + 485 supplement J together?

[Pundit Arjun]

My PD is March 2010. on EAD+AP since 2012.

Changed jobs in 2015 and never field AC21. In anticipation of being current now or in the next 6 months - Should I pro-actively file AC21 alone or file AC21 + 485 supplement J together?

Smuggymba,

I did file for AC21 rightaway when i switched jobs. I had an RFE in 2018 for Supplement J and provided the Supp J after the .
I did exactly per my attorney's recommendation. My 2 cents is for you to do the same ASAP - atleast AC21.
Plz do consult with your attorney before making final decision.

[YTeleven]

How do you get to that ?
I calculated around 64K each for EB1 , EB2 and EB3 . 7% rule limits visa to 5K for the backlogged countries ( india, China , Vietnam and Philippines and maybe Mexico). Rest 40K are available for EB3- ROW to avail as many as they want. I figure they might use up 20K AOS max ; as many consulates are closed. So rest of the 20-25K should go to most backlogged country in the category that is EB3-I. So only ~30K to EB3-I and not 50k according to your calculations

Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.

[inspired_p]

Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.

Understood. Make sense. It all depends on how the FB spillover is used across the backlogged countries I guess. Based on the rules all the spillover after the 7% limit is counted for other countries should go to India applicants in EB2 and EB3 categories; and EB2 should get some more based on how many are unused in EB-1 as well .
Both EB2 and EB3 FAD should move rapidly based on this.

[monsieur]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

I am not YTEleven but still taking a stab; Based on approved I-140 for both EB2 and 3; yes there is real good chance. Only disclaimer is visa wastage

[rohanvus]

Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.

YT - My PD is Dec 2, 2011( in EB2) . My company has started working on EB3 downgrade but am not sure if they shall be able to file before 31st Oct .
Having said that , If things return to pre-covid times (consulates open ,etc..) by March 2021 then do you see FD/FAD dates move any further or do you see halt / retrogress ?
In other words , are we saying that for FY21 atleast we are already set for good despite things returning to normal by early spring or summer ?

[YTeleven]

YT - My PD is Dec 2, 2011( in EB2) . My company has started working on EB3 downgrade but am not sure if they shall be able to file before 31st Oct .
Having said that , If things return to pre-covid times (consulates open ,etc..) by March 2021 then do you see FD/FAD dates move any further or do you see halt / retrogress ?
In other words , are we saying that for FY21 atleast we are already set for good despite things returning to normal by early spring or summer ?

You try your best before 30th not 31st Oct. But for your PD the EB3 dates will be current even if there is a retrogress from Jan2015, so you may get several opportunities to downgrade in future.

[YTeleven]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

99.99% chances are there.

[rohanvus]

You try your best before 30th not 31st Oct. But for your PD the EB3 dates will be current even if there is a retrogress from Jan2015, so you may get several opportunities to downgrade in future.

Thanks YT - Sounds like you are bullish on EB3 . In worst case if I stay put in EB2, then you dont see EB2 dec 2,2011 getting current in a year from now ?
Is EB3 better regardless of whatever vertical spillover (from EB1 ) EB2 may get ?

[inspired_p]

Thanks YT - Sounds like you are bullish on EB3 . In worst case if I stay put in EB2, then you dont see EB2 dec 2,2011 getting current in a year from now ?
Is EB3 better regardless of whatever vertical spillover (from EB1 ) EB2 may get ?

I feel that the only thing that's going to limit the FAD to reach the DF mentioned in the Oct bulletin is the processing capacity/Willingness of USCIS. There are already some reports of USCIS waiving interviews for some EB category applications. So it may seem that USCIS does have willingness to speed up the process.

[inspired_p]

Understood. Make sense. It all depends on how the FB spillover is used across the backlogged countries I guess. Based on the rules all the spillover after the 7% limit is counted for other countries should go to India applicants in EB2 and EB3 categories; and EB2 should get some more based on how many are unused in EB-1 as well .
Both EB2 and EB3 FAD should move rapidly based on this.

Can USCIS give more than 7% visas to EB3-china as well or the rules specifically states that any spillover has to go to the most backlogged country completely ?

[longwaitgigu]

Can USCIS give more than 7% visas to EB3-china as well or the rules specifically states that any spillover has to go to the most backlogged country completely ?

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3
Eb1 is backlog for China- so it will be divided I guess
For eb2- it should go to india
For eb3- we still have hidden demand from phillipines, SK
I learnt from trackitt- one user wagecuck seems to be knowledgeable on distribution rules
He or she said for eb3- other workers- 10,000 gc r issued each year regardless of spillover
So if eb3 skilled workers gc remain- that goes to india but if eb3 other workers gc remains that goes to china

[rohanvus]

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3

150k going solely to India EB1,2,3 ?
Are you saying FB spillover is NOT equally applied to all countries ?
Because if FB spillover were to be equally applied then EB1 -India , EB2-India and EB3-India each will have is own quota of 5235 to use - this does not change things much for EB2/EB3 unless there is massive vertical spillover from EB1 or horizontal spillover from ROWs (which is anyone's guess at this point)

What am i missing ?

[inspired_p]

150k going solely to India EB1,2,3 ?
Are you saying FB spillover is NOT equally applied to all countries ?
Because if FB spillover were to be equally applied then EB1 -India , EB2-India and EB3-India each will have is own quota of 5235 to use - this does not change things much for EB2/EB3 unless there is massive vertical spillover from EB1 or horizontal spillover from ROWs (which is anyone's guess at this point)

What am i missing ?

I am also trying to understand the mechanism of how the spill over gets allotted but this is what i understand ( and I will use only EB3 as an example)

(261K* 7% )/ 3 gives around 6K visa per country cap in EB3 for FY2021
Also normally there are 40K visa in EB3 per year but this year there will be 75K visas available in EB3 category due to 35K extra visas due to FB spillover.
Backlogged countries are India, China Mexico ,Philippines and Vietnam - so each will be capped to 6K in EB3 category, totally 30K visas in the first pass.
Remaining 75K-30K = 45K visa are available for EB3 - ROW. It is safe to assume that EB3-ROW will not use up all of the 45K, say they use up 20K visa numbers, that leaves additional 25K EB3 visas to be utilized.
Again I believe that it is safe to assume that there would be still more applicants from EB3-China waiting and maybe EB3-philippines as well.
Based on what I have heard from experts, the 25K extra visa numbers still available are expected to be allotted to the MOST backlogged country, which will be India in this case. so India would end up getting 30K EB3 category visas this year.

[inspired_p]

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3

For eb3- we still have hidden demand from phillipines, SK

Even if there is a hidden demand, each country has a limit of 7% every year , so I would expect them not be current soon but have some date associated ( FAD) . And once they have a FAD associated - the most backlogged country India would get the extra visas available.
Hence my question can USCIS siphon the extra visa numbers away from India applicants to other countries even though they are not the most backlogged.