EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[harpreetbhatti]

I agree with idliman, as it is highly likely that they will look for new medicals. If there is going to be an RFE before approvals, let them shoot it for both J and medicals or if it is going to be a straight approval, let them do it without J or medicals. Anyways it takes weeks to receive RFE hard copy and weeks to re-activate our case after we respond back.

Could there be any impact in the future after my AOS has been approved for not filing Supp J or reporting employment change for my current employer/employment when AOS was approved?

thanks!

[android09]

I am assuming that you have not filed for AOS so far. EB2I is 01SEP09. Assuming that aggressive movement means 2 or 3 months per bulletin, the FA dates movement will be along the following lines for EB2I.
Nov Bulletin - 01NOV09 (average) ; 01DEC09 (optimistic)
Dec Bulletin - 01JAN10 (average) ; 01MAR10 (optimistic)
Jan Bulletin - 01MAR10 (average) ; 01JUN10 (optimistic)

For EB3I, the PD is already at 15JAN10. Movement will be at a minimum of 3 months per bulletin. So you will be current in EB3I first. So you should go with EB3I.

I keep repeating this again and again. So one more time: One of the main benefits of filing I-485 is the 180 day AC21 clock from the date of filing. After 180 days, you essentially become a "free agent" and the law protects you from out of status type situation. You can take up any job in "same or similar" category.

From the above analysis, the benefits of going with EB3I are obvious for your case. Send your application ASAP. For people who had applied for GC, the first goal should always be the 180 day clock. If GC comes before that then it is an added bonus. Opting for EB3I will give you GC at least 3 months earlier than EB2I.

With your PD, don't worry about retrogression. You have very low chances of getting affected either with EB3I or EB2I.

Idliman, do you anticipate movement for any early 2011 cases in this fiscal ? I know its akin to reading tea leaves but just curious on what the thoughts are if DoS thinks cases until May 2011 can be processed in the 2021 fiscal and USCIS accepting Filing Dates.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Hello Everyone - My PD is May 2010. EB3 approved 1st and then EB2 in 2017. Both with same employer. Does anyone think of any possible reason that EB2 may get me the GC before EB3? (Meaning is there any reason I must file in EB2?)

Since I am also May 2010, I had posed the question to my attorney, but I don't have EB3, just EB2 with the same employer who I have been with for 12+ years. She told me to stick to EB2 since I am not 'trapped' or anything with my employer and there is no pressing need for the EAD/AP as I still have my H1 active through next June.

I am still thinking regarding H1 renewal for which I will be eligible to do in January. Maybe by then the wage issues will be more crystallized to take a decision.

[idliman]

Idliman, do you anticipate movement for any early 2011 cases in this fiscal ? I know its akin to reading tea leaves but just curious on what the thoughts are if DoS thinks cases until May 2011 can be processed in the 2021 fiscal and USCIS accepting Filing Dates.

Boss, I am a fellow back-logger who' filed AOS in 2012; So no magic here; We just try to analyze based on available facts and logic. Time and time again, we have been disappointed by the VB movement.

USCIS sets the "DF" in October bulletin based on their internal calculation of where the dates will be at the start of the next year. The "DF" for EB2I is at 15MAY11. What we have seen is that we never reached the "DF" dates in the last so many years (because they had a good inventory from 2012). This year is different; You have a blockbuster SO. Honestly, the only bother for your PD is the processing capacity of USCIS. That depends on the will of the administration. The processing capacity can be increased by getting rid of interview requirement, waiver of new medical, waiving I485J, and so on. They can get back to how it was before 2015 or so.

How many GCs that USCIS processes, depends on the outcome of the US elections. If Joe Biden wins, all immigration guidelines will be relaxed at USCIS. If DT wins, then things will move at the same speed or slower. Unfortunately a lot of GCs will be wasted in that scenario. We can only predict the future from the past.

The movement in the next 3 bulletins should set the tone for the year.

[rabp77]

One strange thing is that there is not a single EB3/E2 approval for priority dates that got current in the october bulletin based cases on trackitt. Hoping we start seing approvals soon. Does anyone know how long its take to get approved for pre-adjudicated cases once the date becomes current ?

[cool_dude]

I am hearing that USCIS is rejecting downgrade applications without origin PERM?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am hearing that USCIS is rejecting downgrade applications without origin PERM?

I honestly can't tell if this is just scare mongering or actually happening. Unless someone like Siskind or Immigrationgirl actually confirms that, it will be second hand info I guess.

[inspired_p]

Since I am also May 2010, I had posed the question to my attorney, but I don't have EB3, just EB2 with the same employer who I have been with for 12+ years. She told me to stick to EB2 since I am not 'trapped' or anything with my employer and there is no pressing need for the EAD/AP as I still have my H1 active through next June.

I am still thinking regarding H1 renewal for which I will be eligible to do in January. Maybe by then the wage issues will be more crystallized to take a decision.

Yes.I too have similar apprehension for the next H1-B extensions, but I think moving to EAD ( staying with the same employer) is always an option if staying on H1-B becomes impossible

[mknop1]

Hi everyone my priority date is June 2010 in EB3 category. I filed my I485 today. Based on the current situation can someone please give me high-level timelines? What are the key milestones from now on and when should I expect to have them processed? For example receipt notice in 2 to 3 weeks, next steps after that such as biometrics and then finally gc. I know this is all guesstimate but it would be really nice to have some idea about expected timelines. I have been in US for almost 20 years so I would really appreciate your insights on this long awaited opportunity for me and many others like me.

[JoinedToAsk]

I am hearing that USCIS is rejecting downgrade applications without origin PERM?

I asked this thing to 8 outside attorneys and my employer's attorney. It was a nightmare to get attorneys on the call, given they are working 24X7. They told me that one or two occurrences have happened, but the reasons were probably isolated to respective case. They shouldn't be thought of as the norm. My employer (blue chip firm) is filing ~5000 downgrade cases, and my attorney quoted "don't believe everything you read on the Internet." Here's one such example of fake news: https://www.am22tech.com/eb3-india-b...priority-race/.

My priority date is Nov 2010, and I am filing EB2->EB3 downgrade. The processing queue can be changed to premium after USCIS receipt.

[rabp77]

Hi everyone my priority date is June 2010 in EB3 category. I filed my I485 today. Based on the current situation can someone please give me high-level timelines? What are the key milestones from now on and when should I expect to have them processed? For example receipt notice in 2 to 3 weeks, next steps after that such as biometrics and then finally gc. I know this is all guesstimate but it would be really nice to have some idea about expected timelines. I have been in US for almost 20 years so I would really appreciate your insights on this long awaited opportunity for me and many others like me.

Please check https://citizenpath.com/form-i-485-processing-time/

Most of that is accurate, except the final step (receiving GC), which is accurate for most other non-backlogged countries. For india, the time for the last step tends to be more unpredictable. Hoping thats not the case this time. Good luck.

[sportsfan33]

Kanmani,

Nice to see you here! Congratulations on getting greened Long time standing!

Cheers

[radheys]

I am hearing that USCIS is rejecting downgrade applications without origin PERM?

USCIS rejecting downgrade applications without original PERM is total BS......i think some ROW folks are trying to spread this misinformation on trackit to discourage EB2 folks.......

[cool_dude]

USCIS rejecting downgrade applications without original PERM is total BS......i think some ROW folks are trying to spread this misinformation on trackit to discourage EB2 folks.......

Thats what i was thinking.Since my lawyer has not said anything and i work for fortune 100 and its big law firm.

[raradhya]

When is it safe to change employer after filing I-485 (AOS) application. with Covid sitution i am thinking of finding a safe and better place to work.
is it 6 months or immediately after getting EAD and/or AP
what will happen if there are layoffs while the application is still pending with less then 6 months from filing.

[raradhya]

we have 2 separate Alien numbers, one for me (in I-140 approval as well as H1b extension approval) and a different one for my wife (in H4 approval and EAD card)
while doing the medicals i am required to provide alien number of the form. which one to provide for my wife's application?

[nbk1976]

When is it safe to change employer after filing I-485 (AOS) application. with Covid sitution i am thinking of finding a safe and better place to work.
is it 6 months or immediately after getting EAD and/or AP
what will happen if there are layoffs while the application is still pending with less then 6 months from filing.

If the I-485 is pending for 180 days, you can under the AC21 Act move to another employer and do similar work without the new employer filing another I-140. If you want to move before the 180 days, the new employer must file a fresh I-140.

If you are laid off before 180 days, it won't affect your AOS as long as the employer does not notify the USCIS by revoking the I-140. Most employers will revoke it if they are laying you off unless they plan to rehire you when your case becomes current and ready to be adjudicated.

Now, if the employer revokes the I-140 only after180 days, but you were indeed terminated before the 180 days, that is (at least for me) a gray area. If you are able to find another similar job, you might be OK, but that is something you need to ask a good lawyer.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

we have 2 separate Alien numbers, one for me (in I-140 approval as well as H1b extension approval) and a different one for my wife (in H4 approval and EAD card)
while doing the medicals i am required to provide alien number of the form. which one to provide for my wife's application?

She of course needs to provide her A number since it's her medical form.

[bones20]

According to Fragomen:
1. Your alien number is the one in i140/i797A
2. dependent wife on h4 does not have alien number. the one on her h4 ead should not be mentioned.

[skpanda]

She of course needs to provide her A number since it's her medical form.

My doc did not put A# in the I693 form. Does it matter?

[raradhya]

She of course needs to provide her A number since it's her medical form.

Thank you. My spouse has an Alien number from her I-140 approval. but now she is on H4 with EAD. in both cases she has the same Alien number. how ever she is not he primary applicant for filing AOS now. so i am not sure which Ailen number to use. because some of my friends do not have a Alien number assigned to their spouse they all use the primary applicant's number.

my PD is DEC 2010 if that matters.

[inspired_p]

we have 2 separate Alien numbers, one for me (in I-140 approval as well as H1b extension approval) and a different one for my wife (in H4 approval and EAD card)
while doing the medicals i am required to provide alien number of the form. which one to provide for my wife's application?

This is what my lawyer told me. H4-EAD Alien # is a temporary number and they will not use it in the applications. My wife had a A# based on her own I-140 approval , and that A# is permanent and hence she can use it. If spouse(dependent) has never filed I-140 then Alien # is supposed to be kept blank .

[raradhya]

If the I-485 is pending for 180 days, you can under the AC21 Act move to another employer and do similar work without the new employer filing another I-140. If you want to move before the 180 days, the new employer must file a fresh I-140.

If you are laid off before 180 days, it won't affect your AOS as long as the employer does not notify the USCIS by revoking the I-140. Most employers will revoke it if they are laying you off unless they plan to rehire you when your case becomes current and ready to be adjudicated.

Now, if the employer revokes the I-140 only after180 days, but you were indeed terminated before the 180 days, that is (at least for me) a gray area. If you are able to find another similar job, you might be OK, but that is something you need to ask a good lawyer.

Thank you for clarification

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

This is what my lawyer told me. H4-EAD Alien # is a temporary number and they will not use it in the applications. My wife had a A# based on her own I-140 approval , and that A# is permanent and hence she can use it. If spouse(dependent) has never filed I-140 then Alien # is supposed to be kept blank .

My wife had an OPT EAD, H4 EAD and now H1. The A number is constant in that. I have no idea if the first time you get an H4 EAD without having another A number before, it will be 'temporary'. It does not make any sense to me. My understanding was that the A number that USCIS generates for an individual is a unique number that persists among different applications.

[inspired_p]

My wife had an OPT EAD, H4 EAD and now H1. The A number is constant in that. I have no idea if the first time you get an H4 EAD without having another A number before, it will be 'temporary'. It does not make any sense to me. My understanding was that the A number that USCIS generates for an individual is a unique number that persists among different applications.

I have F1 EAD and I-140 EAD , these are not the same. My wife has F1 EAD which had a different number, I-140 and H4 EAD ( which was after I-140) are the same.