EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Auser123]

Is this Premium I140 processing allowed for EB2 to EB3 downgrade also?
I have seen earlier that its not allowed as the Original perm submitted at the first time EB2 I140 and is not available for the downgrade to EB3 now.

but you don't need PP, you can file 485 concurrently

[monsieur]

Posting this since this thread is for calculations and predictions. Initially I thought that there will be eb2 to eb3 downgrade in large numbers.
However my employer and my wife's employer, both are not allowing downgrade. Wife's employer is a large Indian MNC, and has thousands on h1b/l1 . With these two and few other examples, I feel that downgrade may not be in same magnitude as we expected.

Do you guys think in same line?

Also, if you have current priority dates on eb3 and eb2 both, request you to use eb3 .. :P :P

My ex-firm is downgrading everyone (50+) who is eligible to file for EAD. Firm previous to this one is lloking into downgrade atleast 1000s, they are lining up resources. Both of these are US based firms with really really good benefits and top of their field.

So yeah it depends, how sensitive a firm is to legal expenses. Some give priority to their employee(2 firms where i worked in past) or Indian MNC (WITCH??) who believes only in bottom line.

[Sebiswaiting]

That's true. And glad that some folks are getting benefited due to considerate employers.
My employer is an American finance company, and not h1b dependant.. may be 5% on visa. But even they/lawyers are not ready to downgrade.

My ex-firm is downgrading everyone (50+) who is eligible to file for EAD. Firm previous to this one is lloking into downgrade atleast 1000s, they are lining up resources. Both of these are US based firms with really really good benefits and top of their field.

So yeah it depends, how sensitive a firm is to legal expenses. Some give priority to their employee(2 firms where i worked in past) or Indian MNC (WITCH??) who believes only in bottom line.

[old_monk]

Most of the firms in west coast are allowing it.
Financial firms in east coast are generally not as supportive as tech firms regarding matters related to immigration. But my employer(a megabank) is allowing it. So, I assume other banks would also allow. I think there will be substantial number of downgrades. The picture will get more clear in next couple of months.

[maverick2010]

I couldn't find any information on USCIS website on current application fee for I-485 application post court stay order - Any updates? are you all planning to pay old application fee?

[gs1968]

appreciate the response.....we both have the birth certificate but they are incomplete.....in my wife's case , her name is missing from the birth certificate and in my case the registration is 5 years after birth...

I have mentioned this before but worth repeating. The Chennai municipal corporation has a digitized database of all registered births from 1935 onwards and you can download and print a pdf copy of the same free of cost. It is probably not in thr format that the USCIS is looking for and you may still need a notarized affidavit but this will take care of the NABC part. It us worth checking websites of other municipal corporations nationwide to see if this service is available

[idliman]

I have mentioned this before but worth repeating. The Chennai municipal corporation has a digitized database of all registered births from 1935 onwards and you can download and print a pdf copy of the same free of cost. It is probably not in thr format that the USCIS is looking for and you may still need a notarized affidavit but this will take care of the NABC part. It us worth checking websites of other municipal corporations nationwide to see if this service is available

Thanks for taking time to share this information. This is great for those people who are from metros.

[inspired_p]

My ex-firm is downgrading everyone (50+) who is eligible to file for EAD. Firm previous to this one is lloking into downgrade atleast 1000s, they are lining up resources. Both of these are US based firms with really really good benefits and top of their field.

So yeah it depends, how sensitive a firm is to legal expenses. Some give priority to their employee(2 firms where i worked in past) or Indian MNC (WITCH??) who believes only in bottom line.

I have PD of10/28/2010 and have asked my employer to file in EB3 category. I am still confused , does the number of EB3 applications beyond FAD affect the processing speed of the I-485s and hence movement of FAD ?
I mean because of thousands of EB3 downgrade applications will the FAD movement slow down ?
Here I am assuming noone with an EB2 petition before May 15 2011 will want to downgrade.

[jimmys]

Yep! I feel the same. Only 30% will be able to downgrade to eb3

There are lot of downgrades happening. I know a lot of people from a wireless major tech company and they are downgrading for everybody. I know many people/families downgrading to EB-3 with their PDs after May,2011. I yet to see someone who was denied downgrade by their employer.

I would put the downgrade % at minimum 50%. In the West Coast, tech companies understand the plights of immigrants. They will go ahead and do it. All the desi consultancies will do it. So, I don't see a problem with downgrades.

I won't be surprised to see the downgrade I-485s alone come to 70K or thereabouts.

[jimmys]

My ex-firm is downgrading everyone (50+) who is eligible to file for EAD. Firm previous to this one is lloking into downgrade atleast 1000s, they are lining up resources. Both of these are US based firms with really really good benefits and top of their field.

So yeah it depends, how sensitive a firm is to legal expenses. Some give priority to their employee(2 firms where i worked in past) or Indian MNC (WITCH??) who believes only in bottom line.

Ditto. Many people are doing it. Maybe some companies may not do it. Happy to see a lot of happy faces who are able to downgrade.

[jimmys]

I have PD of10/28/2010 and have asked my employer to file in EB3 category. I am still confused , does the number of EB3 applications beyond FAD affect the processing speed of the I-485s and hence movement of FAD ?
I mean because of thousands of EB3 downgrade applications will the FAD movement slow down ?
Here I am assuming noone with an EB2 petition before May 15 2011 will want to downgrade.

People do downgrade and it doesn't matter how far EB3 is ahead. On trackitt some people downgraded with just 2 months between EB-2 and EB-3. If the EB-2 FAD dates don't move in pace with EB-3 people will jump the ship. But before 2011 it may not be much.

Even in this forum whose PD is Jan 2011, was asking if he can file it in EB-3.

[gcconnect]

What are the chances of EB2 FAD reaching end of 2010 vs EB3 FAD. Is it better to go for EB3?

[maverick2010]

My attorney got e-signature and submitted the application. Just curious....

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My attorney got e-signature and submitted the application. Just curious....

My attorney specifically mentioned we all have to do wet signatures, so no e-signatures.

[EB2IndSep09]

Check this out there is premium processing available. https://www.murthy.com/2020/09/30/ne...ssing-service/

These options are going to be available later and do not have the dates when they are going to be available.

[inspired_p]

What are the chances of EB2 FAD reaching end of 2010 vs EB3 FAD. Is it better to go for EB3?

That's the million $ question whose answer even I am trying to predict.

My own gut feeling is EB3 FAD will stay ahead of EB2 FAD and movement of FAD will also be rapid ( 4-6 months at a time) for EB3 instead of 2-3 months for EB2.

I am putting my chances on EB3. Only time will tell if that will give faster FAD and GC.

[bones20]

You have atleast submitted
Fragomen our company lawyer has not even send any list of docs to start
Saying it will take 2 months
Dont know what to do
They seem to be very confident that dates of filing will be open for November

same here

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

same here

Are they trying to cash in on one last H1 renewal?

[longwaitgigu]

Are they trying to cash in on one last H1 renewal?

Lol we just put h1b renewal on 8/31
Dont know how much more blood and money they will extract

[bones20]

Are they trying to cash in on one last H1 renewal?

They have been DDoS'ed with the no of cases that became current.

[AlmostThere]

You can try Indian consulate:
https://www.cgisf.gov.in/page/birth-...h-certificate/

[AlmostThere]

appreciate the response.....we both have the birth certificate but they are incomplete.....in my wife's case , her name is missing from the birth certificate and in my case the registration is 5 years after birth...

You can reach out to Indian consulate:
https://www.cgisf.gov.in/page/birth-...h-certificate/

[AlmostThere]

That's the million $ question whose answer even I am trying to predict.

My own gut feeling is EB3 FAD will stay ahead of EB2 FAD and movement of FAD will also be rapid ( 4-6 months at a time) for EB3 instead of 2-3 months for EB2.

I am putting my chances on EB3. Only time will tell if that will give faster FAD and GC.

Well as per the data from below, since 11/2010, 16 times(out of 120) EB3's PD was "ahead" of EB2 PD, so historically speaking - good chance that EB 2 PD will be ahead of EB3 PD in future - of course on an average. [ For 4 months EB2 PD was U, so technically its just 12 times] i.e. 10% chance that EB3 PD can remain "ahead" of EB3 PD .

https://www.immihelp.com/visa-bulletin-tracker/#

Sorry focussing on PD rather than FAD, as that what really is critical in the long run. Thanks!

[shriny]

Looks like Stimulus Bill 2.0 deal possible by next week, if immigration changes are passed without many changes, there is a real possibility of dates going back immediately?

Here is the section from the bill

ROLLOVER OF UNUSED VISAS.—
(A) IN GENERAL.—For fiscal years 2021 and 2022, the worldwide level of family-spon12 sored immigrants under subsection (c) of sec13 tion 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), the worldwide level of em15 ployment-based immigrants under subsection (d) of such section, and the worldwide level of diversity immigrants under subsection (e) of such section shall each be increased by the number computed under subparagraph (B) with respect to each of such worldwide levels. (B) COMPUTATION OF INCREASE.—For
each of the worldwide levels described in sub23 paragraph (A), the number computed under this subparagraph is the difference (if any) be25 tween the worldwide level established for the

https://appropriations.house.gov/sit....9.28.1753.pdf

[GCWait2011]

Just a suggestion - For our case also the birth certificate does not contain the full name and birth certificate was registered in 2011. My immigration lawyer informed me to get an Affidavit from both parents or relatives.