EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[android09]

Is there any rule that says if husband and wife both have approved I-140 petitions and if one of them gets current, the other cannot adjust status with the primary?

[EB22010Dec]

EB3 Spillover - gurus, do you anticipate 35K spillover into Eb3 as well or is it just for EB2.
My understanding was additional 120k gets divided into smaller buckets for Eb1, EB2, etc.
For these buckets - most backlogged countries get the overflow visas.

Am I wrong in this assumption?

[android09]

EB3 Spillover - gurus, do you anticipate 35K spillover into Eb3 as well or is it just for EB2.
My understanding was additional 120k gets divided into smaller buckets for Eb1, EB2, etc.
For these buckets - most backlogged countries get the overflow visas.

Am I wrong in this assumption?

Each of EB1, EB2 and EB3 get 28.6% of the spillover. That’s 34,320. Regular quota is 140,000 so each EB1,2,3 get 28.6% of that or 40,040. Total EB1,2,3 get 74,360. Then applies country quota of 7% each or 5205 for India, China etc. Rest of world If current, then the difference around 69,000 falls to the most backlogged. That’s my understanding.

[donkeykong]

Is there any rule that says if husband and wife both have approved I-140 petitions and if one of them gets current, the other cannot adjust status with the primary?

Nope, AFAIK

[Lake789]

Hello group- this is my first post after a lot of reading. Need some help - trying to make a decision on what makes more sense with the kind of bulletin that has come up in Oct.
My PD - Jan 2014 EB2, My spouse's PD - Mar 2016 EB2
Considering that the EB3 category FD is Jan 2015, we were thinking of downgrading to EB3, applying I485 concurrently and then hopefully get the EAD / AP etc.

I have been checking all the predictions and seems like that USCIS rapid movement - doesn't seem to be any rapid. the dates will most likely be stuck at 2009/2010 for either category. Any thoughts on when Jan 2014 may even be any close to open up on the FDs atleast? Any other thoughts ? is it worth waiting, or downgrading / EAD is a better option in any event? Thank you so much experts !

[android09]

Nope, AFAIK

Thank you. Also for first time filers or I-485, does one need to file I-485J as well ? The list given to us by our employer is:

1.I-485
2. G-1145
3. I-693(don’t have to submit right away.)
4. I-765
5. I-131
6. I-944

Is there anything else beyond this ?

[Lake789]

Need help group - my PD - Jan 2014 EB2, Spouse's PD - Mar 2016 EB2. I am planning to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 and avail of the EAD option. The bulletin was so confusing, they talk abt 260K visas, but practically 2 months movement in the FAD for EB2 and EB3. Is there any way that EB2 FD can come any close to 2014 this fiscal year? Is what I am planning to do correct, in the current circumstances. Or rapid movement may mean couple of years of movement in EB2. Have been doing a lot of math with pending visa numbers, I140s etc, but honestly nothing makes complete sense .. Please help!

[redtogreen]

Doesnt matter as it is now too late for the bill to impact the spillover. Remember, it has not been passed in House or Senate yet and wont be passing tomorrow either as Rs do not agree with the bill.

The detailed text of the scaled down version of the Heroes bill still mentions both fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The visa bulletin FAD has moved just enough to utilize the original quota of visas( without spillover), so implementing such law need not revoke any FAD announced. Nevertheless, they can and will still honor the filing dates announced, so that brings in the much needed revenue and adding to existing backlog.My PD is in 2010 ( already filed 485 in 2012) and i am still not sure of receiving a green card. The whole situation is not black-and-white, also taking into account uscis processing delays etc.,. Hopefully we receive clarity in the next month or so, until then atleast the window of opportunity for filing 485 should not be missed!!

[EB22010Dec]

Each of EB1, EB2 and EB3 get 28.6% of the spillover. That’s 34,320. Regular quota is 140,000 so each EB1,2,3 get 28.6% of that or 40,040. Total EB1,2,3 get 74,360. Then applies country quota of 7% each or 5205 for India, China etc. Rest of world If current, then the difference around 69,000 falls to the most backlogged. That’s my understanding.

Thank you, Android.
With this statement, can someone tell us the min and max spill-over into Eb2 and EB3 I is going to be ?

[redtogreen]

I will also add that I am 99.99% sure that come Oct 1st, any extra visas available will go to EB and congress will not undo spillover.

I am aware some lawyers are raising such fears. But I do not put much faith into it at all.

Thanks Q, any specific reason you are 99.9 % sure? The detailed language in the bill still says 2021 and 2022. It's one thing that the bill is not approved at all but let's say it is and in it's present state, can it still not be law after Oct 1st?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Thank you. Also for first time filers or I-485, does one need to file I-485J as well ? The list given to us by our employer is:

1.I-485
2. G-1145
3. I-693(don’t have to submit right away.)
4. I-765
5. I-131
6. I-944

Is there anything else beyond this ?

Don’t know why and I did not question it but my attorney is also filing 485J. I have been promoted with the same or similar responsibilities so my title is different than the “future position” that the I-140 was approved for. So it may be because of that. If you want, I can clarify that.

[richie.rich]

Please watch this for some perspective:

https://youtu.be/KOFbMwHy-wc

I totally agree with retrogress chances if someone is planning to downgrade. But remember, Candidates in 2009 and 2010 will not downgrade as they are current in both categories.

I am approved in EB2 as well as EB3 with PD, SEP 2010. My dilemma is which category to go for.

[srimurthy]

I totally agree with retrogress chances if someone is planning to downgrade. But remember, Candidates in 2009 and 2010 will not downgrade as they are current in both categories.

I am approved in EB2 as well as EB3 with PD, SEP 2010. My dilemma is which category to go for.

If you have an approved I140 in both a better chance to go with EB3 as EB3 is the Final Action Dates have a chance of being ahead of EB2.

[android09]

Don’t know why and I did not question it but my attorney is also filing 485J. I have been promoted with the same or similar responsibilities so my title is different than the “future position” that the I-140 was approved for. So it may be because of that. If you want, I can clarify that.

Could you validate that please ? My current employer is filing I-485 for the same job for which the I-140 was filed for. I haven’t ever filed a I-485 before ever. Does a first time I-485 filer need to file for I-485J

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q, any specific reason you are 99.9 % sure? The detailed language in the bill still says 2021 and 2022. It's one thing that the bill is not approved at all but let's say it is and in it's present state, can it still not be law after Oct 1st?

Because there is an unwritten code of "Do no harm" in all the laws that the congress passes. The moment 2021 starts on Oct 1st, EB has those visas due to them and if Congress passes a bill robbing those off them, that's doing harm retroactively. That is why I am very confident it won't happen. 2021 is already passe. Now congress will focus on 2022 onwards. They can simply create new one time extra visas and allocate to FB too. Not a big deal. I just don't know if after election all of this will matter at all. Right now all of that could very well be posturing.

[shriny]

I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.

Thanks for the reply, does it impact getting/renewing EAD or AP if not doing medicals while filing i485?

[YTeleven]

Thank you, Android.
With this statement, can someone tell us the min and max spill-over into Eb2 and EB3 I is going to be ?

Out of 261K easily India can get 150K (all catagories together).

[YTeleven]

YTEleven, you were the first ever to forecast EB3I will take over EB2I. What are your predictions for the final action dates (Both eb2 and eb3) by the end of FY21?

I strongly believe that the current filing dates will become final action dates by Sep 2021 India in all categories.

[noor1027]

Court Blocked All OCT 2 fees increase , what is impact on OCT visa bulletin ? USCIS moved EB3 to 2015 for this fees increase only ...

Do they hold or revetrback Visa Bulletin ?

[Justmyself]

Court Blocked All OCT 2 fees increase , what is impact on OCT visa bulletin ? USCIS moved EB3 to 2015 for this fees increase only ...

Do they hold or revetrback Visa Bulletin ?

Why would they rever back and lose any fees they can get? If anything, I’m thinking they might get a bit more generous with the November bulletin.

[Justmyself]

I strongly believe that the current filing dates will become final action dates by Sep 2021 India in all categories.

That will be nice. But does USCIS really have the processing capability?

[jimmys]

I strongly believe that the current filing dates will become final action dates by Sep 2021 India in all categories.

I don't think Jan 1,2015 in EB3 is anywhere close to getting current in FY2021.

[jimmys]

Hi All
I have a question regarding my situation. I’m From India. My Pd is in 4/12/2010 and I have i140 approved from both EB2 and EB3 from same employer. I’m in confused now which category to go with for AOS filing chance of getting GC faster. I opting to go with EB3, but concerned about downgrading application volume. I don’t want EB3 dates to retrogress after applying.What are your thoughts? Plse advise.

If your PD is 04/12/2010, the category doesn't matter. There could be few to several months difference between two categories.

[jimmys]

Hi,

My EB2 PD is 08/2011. Sorry, if this has been answered already.

Do you guys think the EB2 DF would move forward by 3 months in next 1-2 bulletins? even if it is, do we have any chance of getting DF accepted rather than FA? I understand it's highly speculative, but any best guesses with experience? Or is it better to just got for the downgrade to take advantage of EAD? TIA

It's unlikely. If I were you I will explore the downgrade option to get EAD.

[jimmys]

Has the filing date ever been moved forward after being established in the beginning of the FY? If there is any year that is possible, it should be this. There is going to be massive porting from EB2 to EB3 as long as the keep the FD for EB3 where it is, thus reducing the demand for EB2. But at the same time, it may take a few bulletins even for them to figure out which way the trend is.

It's unlikely for the filing dates to move again in mid year. I think even these dates will generate a massive demand.