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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #7301
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by sandykolu View Post
    Q/spec/others,
    Looking at an older 485 pending inventory published in 2018
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...April_2018.pdf
    I have a PD of April 29 2010 eb2I It appears that there are approx 4000 pending eb2 applications ahead of me post sep 1 2009. With a multiplying factor of 2.2 for dependents, is it correct to assume approx 9k pending eb2 applications. With the new spillover that is now potentially available, what is your prediction/calculation for eb2i April 2010 final action date to be current?
    if uscis can process cases fast enough, there is a good chance your date will be current within one year. If you have applied for i-485 in 2012, the likely hood it will be processed this year is higher.

  2. #7302

    AILA has updated inventory

    Quote Originally Posted by rabp77 View Post
    if uscis can process cases fast enough, there is a good chance your date will be current within one year. If you have applied for i-485 in 2012, the likely hood it will be processed this year is higher.
    Sandy - AILA’s has updated inventory details : https://www.aila.org/File/DownloadEmbeddedFile/77265. Looking at it, the count is higher than the April doc.

  3. #7303
    Thanks Arun. That makes it approx 20k applicants from sep1 2009 - may 1 2010 if we consider a 2.2 factor for dependents.

  4. #7304
    Quote Originally Posted by cool_dude View Post
    My employer has declined to downgrade to EB3.Missed date by 10 days in EB2...there goes my GC...dont know when it will reach may 25 2011.
    Really disappointing..
    All is not lost yet. You may be current in November. You can also look for other potential employers who will be willing to file EB3 140 and 485 concurrently with good faith and you can join them after 140 is approved.

  5. #7305
    Sensei
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    Jun 2020
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    What is expectation for both eb2 and eb3 by end of September 2021
    Is it possible for 2010 to be cleared for eb2 and eb3?

  6. #7306
    Sensei
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    I think you r calculating wrong
    Pending inventory has already dependents calculation
    Coz they adjusted AOS
    So it should be 8958 total till may 1 2010
    Inputs appreciated

  7. #7307

    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by sandykolu View Post
    Thanks Arun. That makes it approx 20k applicants from sep1 2009 - may 1 2010 if we consider a 2.2 factor for dependents.
    There is also a chance that the later inventory includes some of the dependents.
    To answer your initial question - the logic shared by rabp is good. But then again, this whole GC Sham - Do not rely too much on it. Carry on with the life and GC will come by at its own pace. There is no real logic/explanation on the dates movement.
    If you ask some they blame it on DOS but I blame it on the entire process. How hard is it to keep it transparent - the Math should always add up and the variables should be clear and transparent. We pay for the applications and the processing as well - We should not be kept in the dark. Nuff said.

    Goodluck to you and to all of us.

  8. #7308
    The i-485 inventory includes dependents as well. its close to 9K pending till 2010. This does not include the eb3 to eb2 upgrades post 2012.

  9. #7309
    that is correct. i-485 inventory includes dependents.

  10. #7310
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by sandykolu View Post
    Thanks Arun. That makes it approx 20k applicants from sep1 2009 - may 1 2010 if we consider a 2.2 factor for dependents.
    Why are you factoring in dependents? They are people who filed for AOS where dependents are already counted (not people with approved i140s). So the actual number will be more or less the same.

  11. #7311

  12. #7312
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by oraclept View Post
    This is politics. Agreement with White House does not give anything until the Senate votes on it. The provisions are intentional to drag out the stimulus fight, so that Senate has less time to confirm SC pick.

  13. #7313
    Gurus need your insight. My wife's priority date became current - Feb 2011 per the october bulletin. We're filing for I-485/EAD/AP for us. I'm working on H1b and have an approved I-140 myself with Jan 2014 as my PD. On the I-765 EAD application, her eligibility category is C9. I want to know what should be my category on the EAD application I file?

  14. #7314
    Quote Originally Posted by FlowerPot View Post
    Long time reader & first time posting as I am having similar dilemma like many others with oct VB.

    My PD is 12-May-2011 EB2-I and many years after I-140 approval (still valid) I moved to new state and took new job title with same employer. Since its new title and state, attorney started the PERM and after long wait it was finally submitted last month for DOL processing. I am sure it will take Jan/Feb to know the outcome of it.

    What are my options here? Since its same employer would it be possible to apply for 485/AOS based on previous role's I-140 approval and submit Sup J based on similar job profile details (OR)
    Wait for PERM status for current role in high hope that dates wont retrogress in Jan/Feb and then apply for I-140/485 concurrently? (OR)
    Apply for I-485 based on previous role's I-140 approval and wait for 180 days and then use AC21 (OR)
    Any other favorable possibility?
    There is something called MSA Metropolitan Statistical area under which the PERM gets filed.
    So when the job location moves, technically the immigration attorney knows that if a new PERM/I-140 is required for the new location or not. So in your case attorneys figured a new PERM is required.
    Your old I-140 could be used only for retaining the priority date but the underlying PERM or I140 usage is not possible this info is with my own personal experience and take it with a grain of salt.
    There is a possibility though if your old office location is still open, occupied and your employer presence is there and they can transfer you back there which was not in my case. Good luck!

  15. #7315
    https://twitter.com/ejtaub/status/1310687362939334661

    DOS released statistics on immigration & nonimmigrant visa issuance for August 2020:

    In August 2020, DOS issued 6,100 immigrant visas, compared to 38,090 in August 2019.

    DOS issued 94,416 nonimmigrant visas compared to 742,011 in August 2019.

  16. #7316
    Quote Originally Posted by Moveon View Post
    I am not sure about the GC numbers and why they are sending RFEs for folks who have PDs in 03/2010. My friend has not changed the co for last 10 years and got an RFE last week for 03/2010 (Nebraska).
    Mine is March 30, 2010...TSC...no RFE, no info from USCIS as of now. Application has not been touched since 2012.

  17. #7317
    Quote Originally Posted by android09 View Post
    Gurus need your insight. My wife's priority date became current - Feb 2011 per the october bulletin. We're filing for I-485/EAD/AP for us. I'm working on H1b and have an approved I-140 myself with Jan 2014 as my PD. On the I-765 EAD application, her eligibility category is C9. I want to know what should be my category on the EAD application I file?
    android09,
    Your category is same as hers : c9
    -RGV1

  18. #7318
    Quote Originally Posted by altek001 View Post
    YTeleven- Your thoughts on when 2010-OCT EB2-I can reach in Final Action dates?
    By Mar 2021 but its all depends on availability of USCIS workforce.

  19. #7319
    Freshman
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    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    By Mar 2021 but its all depends on availability of USCIS workforce.
    I have november 2010 EB2 PD. My company is giving me an option to downgrade if I want. I want to downgrade if it means I will get GC at least 3 months faster. Is there any way to deduce number of people ahead of me in EB2 queue? 485 data shows only until April. I am looking for ways to deduce from May to October.

  20. #7320
    Sensei
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    Looking at this report
    Uscis should have enough time processing EB applications

  21. #7321
    Quote Originally Posted by gcpdnov2010 View Post
    I have november 2010 EB2 PD. My company is giving me an option to downgrade if I want. I want to downgrade if it means I will get GC at least 3 months faster. Is there any way to deduce number of people ahead of me in EB2 queue? 485 data shows only until April. I am looking for ways to deduce from May to October.
    The ratio between EB2 I demand and EB3 I demand is roughly 4:1.. so a straight nov 2010 EB3 will get GC much faster than same PD in EB2.. but not sure of how much extra time it will take if you downgrade

  22. #7322
    Yoda
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    Florida
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    Quote Originally Posted by sandykolu View Post
    Q/spec/others,
    Looking at an older 485 pending inventory published in 2018
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...April_2018.pdf
    I have a PD of April 29 2010 eb2I It appears that there are approx 4000 pending eb2 applications ahead of me post sep 1 2009. With a multiplying factor of 2.2 for dependents, is it correct to assume approx 9k pending eb2 applications. With the new spillover that is now potentially available, what is your prediction/calculation for eb2i April 2010 final action date to be current?

    I485 inventory already includes dependents.

  23. #7323
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    There is something called MSA Metropolitan Statistical area under which the PERM gets filed.
    So when the job location moves, technically the immigration attorney knows that if a new PERM/I-140 is required for the new location or not. So in your case attorneys figured a new PERM is required.
    Your old I-140 could be used only for retaining the priority date but the underlying PERM or I140 usage is not possible this info is with my own personal experience and take it with a grain of salt.
    There is a possibility though if your old office location is still open, occupied and your employer presence is there and they can transfer you back there which was not in my case. Good luck!
    Thanks for your response. Yes, I understand the reasoning behind new PERM and I-140 process based on location change and it was the risk I had to take at that time but now it has put me on tough spot with this oct VB.
    Yes, my old location is still open as that is the HQ and I am going to talk to them about possibility of transfer, so I can go with 485/AOS.

  24. #7324
    Sophomore
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    Mar 2012
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    Woodbury,MN
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    I have been reading there is a bill pending to remove massive FB spillover from EB ?

  25. #7325
    Hi All
    I have a question regarding my situation. I’m From India. My Pd is in 4/12/2010 and I have i140 approved from both EB2 and EB3 from same employer. I’m in confused now which category to go with for AOS filing chance of getting GC faster. I opting to go with EB3, but concerned about downgrading application volume. I don’t want EB3 dates to retrogress after applying.What are your thoughts? Plse advise.

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