EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[inspired_p]

Thank you.

[EB2IndSep09]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P

inspired_p,
2010 seems to be far away from the current PD but don't be surprised if things do not go as you expect.

My case has been a classic example. My PD as anyone can guess EB2-I Sep2009, in 2011 took a FT position with an pre-approval and exception from big heads of the company and HR that GC will be started as soon as I join them.
The rule is to start GC only after 1 year of service at the firm. The paper work was not assigned to the attorneys for the next 4 months as HR has conveniently miss placed the approval documents and meanwhile my PD got current and I had a chance to file my AOS for 6 months but unfortunately in the poorly setup administrative process like PWD etc my PERM was not even filed and here I am after 9 years still waiting for PD to become current again to file my AOS.
Long story short I did not expect that CO gets brain fart and would move dates months and years at a time in EB2. Because of that the side effect there were many changes like two dates in the visa bulletin etc and rest is history.

Unfortunately there were some side effects in my family's life too. My spouse had to sign up for her 3rd masters at that time to keep the status, my kid who is now in college has lost many wonderful opportunities and it came to the situation now to be worried about aging out. There are numerous occasions where things would have gone better had my family had GC. Do we repent for the decision we took in 2011? Hell No. Do we have grievance for what happened and what is still happening? Of course.

I just want to throw out the worst things that happened to us so that people like you can take an informed decision. Whatever decision you take never forget that it is appropriate and is in you and your familiy's best interest in that given time.
Good luck to you!

[monsieur]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

If you like new job and its good for you in long term - ACCEPT IT (sorry for caps)

I know you are worried abt once in generation spillover, but keep in mind once 2010-2011 is cleared, there is no way somebody will travel back in time and get 2010-11 Priority date, once its cleared its cleared for good. It will sucks for folks in 2012-2013 as date will not move fwd (just like for folks in late 2009). My ASSUMPTION is 2010 dates will stay current in future just as 2008 dates are post-2012 spillover party.

I switched jobs recently, knowing full well abt upcoming spillover bonanza; Perm process has started. Based on my past 6 months experience I can say P1 - Prevailing Wage (PWD) takes 2-3 months, P2 - recruitment 2 months and then (P3) actual Perm filing which is taking 4-5 months approval (start to end 10-12 months). I am in P2 stage right now, earliest I will be able to file for I-140 based on current trend is Jan 2021. I took this step as I felt long term its good for me and god willing this is indeed the case.

Its something totally on you to decide what you wanna do (based on kids age, spouse plans, for you personally - you are got offer means you are good at what you do ), stranger like me can only share their experience.

All the best on whatever you decide!!

[inspired_p]

inspired_p,
2010 seems to be far away from the current PD but don't be surprised if things do not go as you expect.

My case has been a classic example. My PD as anyone can guess EB2-I Sep2009, in 2011 took a FT position with an pre-approval and exception from big heads of the company and HR that GC will be started as soon as I join them.
The rule is to start GC only after 1 year of service at the firm. The paper work was not assigned to the attorneys for the next 4 months as HR has conveniently miss placed the approval documents and meanwhile my PD got current and I had a chance to file my AOS for 6 months but unfortunately in the poorly setup administrative process like PWD etc my PERM was not even filed and here I am after 9 years still waiting for PD to become current again to file my AOS.
Long story short I did not expect that CO gets brain fart and would move dates months and years at a time in EB2. Because of that the side effect there were many changes like two dates in the visa bulletin etc and rest is history.

Unfortunately there were some side effects in my family's life too. My spouse had to sign up for her 3rd masters at that time to keep the status, my kid who is now in college has lost many wonderful opportunities and it came to the situation now to be worried about aging out. There are numerous occasions where things would have gone better had my family had GC. Do we repent for the decision we took in 2011? Hell No. Do we have grievance for what happened and what is still happening? Of course.

I just want to throw out the worst things that happened to us so that people like you can take an informed decision. Whatever decision you take never forget that it is appropriate in that given time.
Good luck to you!

Thank you for sharing your story. This was very helpful. In 2013 , I too had to make a similar decision, take up a FT or stay with the then current employer, as the dates reached May 2010, I decided to stay put waiting for one more push in the next visa bulletin, and rest is history. I do look back on that decision with grievance today.
I think the best option is to stay put where i am at, get I-140 applied, and if the dates do move it would be the best decision, if they don't I would not be too far off hopefully.

[inspired_p]

If you like new job and its good for you in long term - ACCEPT IT (sorry for caps)

I know you are worried abt once in generation spillover, but keep in mind once 2010-2011 is cleared, there is no way somebody will travel back in time and get 2010-11 Priority date, once its cleared its cleared for good. It will sucks for folks in 2012-2013 as date will not move fwd (just like for folks in late 2009). My ASSUMPTION is 2010 dates will stay current in future just as 2008 dates are post-2012 spillover party.

I switched jobs recently, knowing full well abt upcoming spillover bonanza; Perm process has started. Based on my past 6 months experience I can say P1 - Prevailing Wage (PWD) takes 2-3 months, P2 - recruitment 2 months and then (P3) actual Perm filing which is taking 4-5 months approval (start to end 10-12 months). I am in P2 stage right now, earliest I will be able to file for I-140 based on current trend is Jan 2021. I took this step as I felt long term its good for me and god willing this is indeed the case.

Its something totally on you to decide what you wanna do (based on kids age, spouse plans, for you personally - you are got offer means you are good at what you do ), stranger like me can only share their experience.

All the best on whatever you decide!!

Thank you.

[jimmys]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P

I made the mistake of not switching my job for years believing my PD will be current this year,every year. Don't make that mistake. If you like the job, just go ahead. Your PD will be current forever after 12 months or so. So you're not losing out much if your new job makes you happy.

[Zenzone]

Thank you for your POV on this. I do plan on using EAD/AP for myself and my spouse if and when we can file. That is the whole reason why I am confused. I do not want to 'miss the boat' when the "once in a generation" spillover is used, and if it happens the dates are for sure to retrogress or halt for the next couple of years
Is the unemployment due to COVID a concern ? Will it affect the new PERM application filed in the next fiscal year.

Regards
Inspired_P

Always chase the career opportunity! If dates get current they won't retrogress for another decade...you should be in the safe zone. Good luck and god speed!

[horizon1012]

Folks,

Is this true that the fees for filing 485 will be changing from 10/02/2020 and anyone filing on or after 10/02 has to renew EAD every year. I was watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7jfqVJqYBI and it says that anyone filing on or after 10/02 has to pay $1000 extra per member and this will carry on every year until you case is pending. If this is true then it is a no brainer as to why there is a delay in the bulletin for this month.

[rabp77]

They seem to have a limited memory.

Here's the EB allocation and Use for EB back to 1993:

- FY ------ Alloc. ----- Use
FY1993 --- 161,207 --- 161,207
FY1994 --- 143,213 --- 113,783
FY1995 --- 146,503 ---- 87,809
FY1996 --- 140,000 --- 118,827
FY1997 --- 140,000 ---- 99,290
FY1998 --- 140,000 ---- 86,429
FY1999 --- 160,906 ---- 61,965
FY2000 --- 142,299 --- 111,166
FY2001 --- 192,074 --- 186,536
FY2002 --- 142,632 --- 171,583
FY2003 --- 171,532 ---- 83,020
FY2004 --- 204,422 --- 157,107
FY2005 --- 148,449 --- 242,293
FY2006 --- 143,949 --- 133,622
FY2007 --- 147,148 --- 154,460
FY2008 --- 162,704 --- 162,949
FY2009 --- 140,000 --- 140,987
FY2010 --- 150,657 --- 150,262
FY2011 --- 140,000 --- 139,302
FY2012 --- 144,951 --- 144,648
FY2013 --- 158,466 --- 161,269
FY2014 --- 150,241 --- 151,359
FY2015 --- 144,796 --- 143,954
FY2016 --- 140,338 --- 140,350
FY2017 --- 140,000 --- 139,604
FY2018 --- 140,292 --- 139,483
FY2019 --- 141,918 --- 140,586
FY2020 --- 156,253 --- ???,???

As recently as FY2008, the allocation was more than the 158k mentioned.

The maximum number of approvals in a FY during that period was in FY2005 (during visa recapture) with 242,293 approvals. The 2nd highest was in FY2001 with 186,536 approvals.

Hi Spec,

would you know why some years have a higher number of Visa used than allocated. Mostly the differnce is not much except for FY2005 where the used number is almost 100k above the allocated.

[gten20]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P

I made the mistake of not switching my job for years believing my PD will be current this year,every year. Don't make that mistake. If you like the job, just go ahead. Your PD will be current forever after 12 months or so. So you're not losing out much if your new job makes you happy.

I agree with jimmys. Even if you miss the boat, it probably wont be long before you become current again in a year or so (but of course its an unknown). With the current political environment I wont be surprised if DOS makes the date "C" for filing and a date of May 1, 2010 for Final action, but USCIS will say use Final action date stating that they don't have the bandwidth to process the paperwork and keep it at May 1, 2010 for as long as they can. You have to decide if the job offer and your projected career growth with the new job is worth the potential extra wait time. Sometimes the new employer will wait a month for you to make a decision, if you want to wait till Oct 20 something and see what happens in Nov. Visa Bulletin.

Also, if your new job is working for your employer at their site and not consulting/contracting work at a client site, I think that's a big plus point to accept the offer.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

would you know why some years have a higher number of Visa used than allocated. Mostly the difference is not much except for FY2005 where the used number is almost 100k above the allocated.

As I mentioned originally, this was a period where their was Visa Recapture.

Around 130k extra visas were approved between FY2002 and FY2007 which were recaptured in the AC21 Bill.

Not included in the figures, is an additional 50k visas that were recaptured for use by Schedule A. They were awarded in FY2005 - FY2007.

[longwaitgigu]

As I mentioned originally, this was a period where their was Visa Recapture.

Around 130k extra visas were approved between FY2002 and FY2007 which were recaptured in the AC21 Bill.

Not included in the figures, is an additional 50k visas that were recaptured for use by Schedule A. They were awarded in FY2005 - FY2007.

I was just curious spec- you have so much accurate immigration knowledge - is this your full time job or your passion
R u still seeking GC or just helping out others
If you are comfortable, you can reply otherwise I dont mind

[nbk1976]

Look at the coming month's projections till Jan/20. The dates will move rapidly. It depends on your priority date. What is your priority date?

Do you expect EB2-I FAD to move 2 months till Jan 2021? So a total of 6-month movement? My PD is Feb 10, 2010.

[prabakarb]

Do you expect EB2-I FAD to move 2 months till Jan 2021? So a total of 6-month movement? My PD is Feb 10, 2010.

I am expecting 3 months movement till Jan 2021. I believe you will be current by Jan, 2021. There are about 110K extra numbers available. CO clearly said in the bulletin that numbers exceed current demand. He is not moving the dates completely so far as USCIS cannot process them. It seems he is applying quarterly spill over. But your date is very close and I would be surprised if you are not current by January bulletin.

[abcx13]

What is the best estimate for FAD for EB2 and EB3 for this FY? 2011?

[qesehmk]

Guys ... requesting you ask questions by creating threads or searching existing threads. This thread is for calculations.

Please respect moderators time who keep these threads clean. They are all volunteers.

[Positive]

So, based on the projected inventory and the visa numbers for 2021, what dates would be current for FAD end 2021?

[rocketfast]

So, based on the projected inventory and the visa numbers for 2021, what dates would be current for FAD end 2021?

I initially thought that EB1 will give some unused numbers to EB2 (based on EB4, EB5 spillovers and low EB1-ROW applications in 2021). I no longer think that is possible.

I think EB2-I will get ~25,000 GCs (China will take extra 2800. EB2-ROW will use up its quota + some more). This should take EB2-I to around Nov/Dec 2010.

For EB3-I, with consular processing out till December, Philippines will only start producing pressure from February. Looking at trackitt data for EB3-ROW, I do feel that the demand is not a lot. So guess-estimating that EB3-I will likely end up at June 2011 (when down-porting numbers will stop it from moving forward).

[user017]

What is the prediction on retrogression of EB3 filing date after Oct? Is it possible to upgrade back to EB2 after getting EAD and AP with downgrade from EB2 to EB3?

[Zenzone]

I initially thought that EB1 will give some unused numbers to EB2 (based on EB4, EB5 spillovers and low EB1-ROW applications in 2021). I no longer think that is possible.

I think EB2-I will get ~25,000 GCs (China will take extra 2800. EB2-ROW will use up its quota + some more). This should take EB2-I to around Nov/Dec 2010.

For EB3-I, with consular processing out till December, Philippines will only start producing pressure from February. Looking at trackitt data for EB3-ROW, I do feel that the demand is not a lot. So guess-estimating that EB3-I will likely end up at June 2011 (when down-porting numbers will stop it from moving forward).

You are way too conservative here. I think EB2I and EB3I will converge somewhere around late 2011 to early 2012. I think you are overestimating the ROW demand in EB2 and EB3 and I also think some vertical SO from EB1 is still a reality. I envision 35-40K visas per category for India (if wastage is not substantial).

[longwaitgigu]

The October bulletin has said 261.,500 gcs
I think any rule passing after sept 30 should not impact 2021 FY but FY2022.
Even if Democrats take all 3 I think they cannot change Fiscal limit anymore
But if trump comes then EO extends and all CP and ROW spillover should be going to india

[gs1968]

The October bulletin has said 261.,500 gcs
I think any rule passing after sept 30 should not impact 2021 FY but FY2022.
Even if Democrats take all 3 I think they cannot change Fiscal limit anymore
But if trump comes then EO extends and all CP and ROW spillover should be going to india

I would agree. The calculation will be difficult once the visas have started to be used by the EB category. Also the 261K visas denotes availability but not necessarily a target to be met. We hope that the intent of the USCIS is to use as many of these as possible. But as mentioned earlier it would take a doubling of effort by the USCIS

[Positive]

You are way too conservative here. I think EB2I and EB3I will converge somewhere around late 2011 to early 2012. I think you are overestimating the ROW demand in EB2 and EB3 and I also think some vertical SO from EB1 is still a reality. I envision 35-40K visas per category for India (if wastage is not substantial).

My attorneys seem to have a way rosier view of things. I had asked them if there would be any issues with downgrading to EB3 for a position that required two advances degrees (JD and PhD) they came back with a ...there should not be a problem but you could wait and Eb2 will probably advance soon.... Here is their rosy interpretation, what do the experts think:

"we are also seeing some guidance that there may be additional forward advancement on the priority dates in the coming months. This past year, there were a lot of unused family-based immigrant visas due to COVID and the Presidential Proclamation (restricting overseas consulate processing) and per the regulations, those unused visas were dumped into the FY2021 limit -- which was 140,000. The unused visas that were dumped into the limit totaled 121,500, so it almost double the normal annual limit (totaling 261,500 available visas for the year). With that in mind, the language below from the visa bulletin seems to suggest that we will see more dates becoming current.

Pending demand, in the form of applications for adjustment of status, and documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants, is well below the estimated annual limit of 261,500. Adjustment of status applications filed early in FY 2021 are most likely to be adjudicated during the upcoming fiscal year.

Your approved I-140 is considered part of the “pending demand” as you are a documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicant and they are saying that the 261,500 that are in this year’s annual limit exceeds demand which would include all of the approved I-140s that are sitting out there.

We also note that the visa bulletin indicates there will be “RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT” in all categories in the coming months. While this is no guarantee, it is a very good indication that the November and December visa bulletins will continue to see forward advancement under all categories. As such, it is possible many EB2 dates will be current soon."

I think they are certainly wrong in thinking I140 count is included in pending demand. Also, i believe the rapid movement is for the FAD not filing dates.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My attorneys seem to have a way rosier view of things. I had asked them if there would be any issues with downgrading to EB3 for a position that required two advances degrees (JD and PhD) they came back with a ...there should not be a problem but you could wait and Eb2 will probably advance soon.... Here is their rosy interpretation, what do the experts think:

"we are also seeing some guidance that there may be additional forward advancement on the priority dates in the coming months. This past year, there were a lot of unused family-based immigrant visas due to COVID and the Presidential Proclamation (restricting overseas consulate processing) and per the regulations, those unused visas were dumped into the FY2021 limit -- which was 140,000. The unused visas that were dumped into the limit totaled 121,500, so it almost double the normal annual limit (totaling 261,500 available visas for the year). With that in mind, the language below from the visa bulletin seems to suggest that we will see more dates becoming current.

Pending demand, in the form of applications for adjustment of status, and documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants, is well below the estimated annual limit of 261,500. Adjustment of status applications filed early in FY 2021 are most likely to be adjudicated during the upcoming fiscal year.

Your approved I-140 is considered part of the “pending demand” as you are a documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicant and they are saying that the 261,500 that are in this year’s annual limit exceeds demand which would include all of the approved I-140s that are sitting out there.

We also note that the visa bulletin indicates there will be “RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT” in all categories in the coming months. While this is no guarantee, it is a very good indication that the November and December visa bulletins will continue to see forward advancement under all categories. As such, it is possible many EB2 dates will be current soon."

I think they are certainly wrong in thinking I140 count is included in pending demand. Also, i believe the rapid movement is for the FAD not filing dates.

Similar feedback from my attorney too. Regarding my PD of May 2010, she thinks it may be current in the next 4-5 bulletins.

[pramod]

Assuming all/most spillover (FB 2019-20 numbers) going to India and based on available data (PERM, I-140, pending applications etc.), any educated guess on where could EB2I end up by Sep2021? Is it even possible to estimate at this point?
Thank you