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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #7151
    Quote Originally Posted by NJMavarick View Post
    Not to throw a wrench but will the unused FY21 EB numbers SO to FB FY22? Spec, Q?
    There won't be any unused visa in EB numbers in 2021 with wait times spanning anywhere between a decade to a dozen decades depending on the queue.
    I am not a immigration lawyer but even if there is that hypothetical surplus number of visas in EB there is no such provision in INA which will allow circular spill over from one to another. In short visas will lapse if not used in time.

  2. #7152
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    What are INA laws around FB to EB and EB to FB spillover

    * Family spillover goes to EB
    * EB spillover goes to FB
    https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64774

    Does this mean that spillovers that go from EB to FB can come back next year?

    For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
    https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64819
    Thanks! I knew we did discuss this on the forum but was unable to find the links....Cheers

  3. #7153
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Although many folks who were with us on that day, have moved on - received GC/citizenship and have prospered; personally it makes my head heavy thinking of everybody that is in the backlog today. All I can say is, focus on life, people you love, travel around, enjoy life and propser at your career. Remove the mental block of not having GC. You will surprised how well US workplace will treat you when you are confident.

    My best wishes to all.
    Hi Q, remember the good old days...yes many moved and few goldies like you Spec still supporting the community, few like us still stuck in the line

    Agree with Q on the GC mindblock... i moved on with that mindset...got better job and GC line doesnot bother me much as it used to few years ago ....it comes when it comes

  4. #7154
    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    Hi Q, remember the good old days...yes many moved and few goldies like you Spec still supporting the community, few like us still stuck in the line

    Agree with Q on the GC mindblock... i moved on with that mindset...got better job and GC line doesnot bother me much as it used to few years ago ....it comes when it comes
    I got my green card 3 years ago but still can’t move on. I keep visiting this forum, reading the posts and agonizing about people who are still stuck. This journey is incredibly painful and is very hard to get over. Really appreciate the service being done by Q and Spec to this backlogged community. This site provided me solace when I felt depressed. Especially predictions by YTeleven used to create a lot of excitement. Thank you once again to everyone on this forum.

    Good luck to all who are still waiting.

    Amul

  5. #7155
    Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond..

  6. #7156
    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    Hi Q, remember the good old days...yes many moved and few goldies like you Spec still supporting the community, few like us still stuck in the line

    Agree with Q on the GC mindblock... i moved on with that mindset...got better job and GC line doesnot bother me much as it used to few years ago ....it comes when it comes
    In most families there is one member who is stressing about GCs and visiting forums. If it is not the husband then it is the wife.

    I am not arguing against. However, I am placing alternate views below.

    In my opinion other than personal mindset, the stress on backlogged people is dependent on the industry / company. If you are in an industry other than IT services, there is a chance that it can go through unprecedented changes in 10 years (e.g. Automotive, Oil and Gas, Fossil / Nuclear Power, etc.,). For example if you got your Masters / PhD in IC engines and had joined Ford/GM on that expertise, then 10 years down the line you are facing against Tesla and your technology is dying. How are you going to get a job in same or similar category. There is little use to that Masters / PhD other than the course work and process you went through. In that time, the GC will help you to switch industries.

    I am sure the IT techies can also provide similar examples. Another thing that hurts some people till getting citizenship is employment in National Labs / EPA / FHA / NOAA / NRC / Govt. research jobs. A few years back these agencies were open to good H1B candidates through contract. Now things have changed dramatically especially under Trump admin. Sometimes we get comments such as he is an expert, however I don't want a H1B candidate. I can just hire 15 citizens and brute force the job. Shockingly that seems to be the mentality in some places.

    What i am saying is that, even if you are very good, you need some things to fall in place when you are in H1B status.

  7. #7157
    Quote Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b View Post
    Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond..
    Congrats!

    What is your PD, and country of chargeability
    =========================================
    EB2-I PD -> 19-Oct-2009 | EAD/AP since -> 30-Apr-2012 | GC -> 08-APR-2021

  8. #7158
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    In most families there is one member who is stressing about GCs and visiting forums. If it is not the husband then it is the wife.

    I am not arguing against. However, I am placing alternate views below.

    In my opinion other than personal mindset, the stress on backlogged people is dependent on the industry / company. If you are in an industry other than IT services, there is a chance that it can go through unprecedented changes in 10 years (e.g. Automotive, Oil and Gas, Fossil / Nuclear Power, etc.,). For example if you got your Masters / PhD in IC engines and had joined Ford/GM on that expertise, then 10 years down the line you are facing against Tesla and your technology is dying. How are you going to get a job in same or similar category. There is little use to that Masters / PhD other than the course work and process you went through. In that time, the GC will help you to switch industries.

    I am sure the IT techies can also provide similar examples. Another thing that hurts some people till getting citizenship is employment in National Labs / EPA / FHA / NOAA / NRC / Govt. research jobs. A few years back these agencies were open to good H1B candidates through contract. Now things have changed dramatically especially under Trump admin. Sometimes we get comments such as he is an expert, however I don't want a H1B candidate. I can just hire 15 citizens and brute force the job. Shockingly that seems to be the mentality in some places.

    What i am saying is that, even if you are very good, you need some things to fall in place when you are in H1B status.
    Rings very true in my case. I am in the O&G industry and subject to the fluctuations of that heavily but at least I was able to get in line in 2010. My wife is exceptionally qualified for EB1 and works indirectly for Space/Defense sectors and holds three engineering degrees, but due to restrictions that can't be discussed here, she is still on H1. There is still a chance that after waiting for 10 years for my PD to become current, she may still end up getting hers and I will happily ride her coattails ;-).

    The way we have been working through this is at first neither of us cared about the dates as we were traveling around experiencing different locations until the kids had to be in school. In the past year or so I have started following the dates as kids got in school and the lack of GC started impacting my wife's work in some sensitive areas, but she is still blissfully ignorant and wants to remain that way. It has become so comical at her workplace that at times she will be prepping some equipment for space flight and a USC will be sitting in the room doodling on something because those are the regulations.

    After you get to a certain age, you just make peace with your situation and go with the flow and focus on your family, friends and other things.

  9. #7159
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    313
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    Rings very true in my case. I am in the O&G industry and subject to the fluctuations of that heavily but at least I was able to get in line in 2010. My wife is exceptionally qualified for EB1 and works indirectly for Space/Defense sectors and holds three engineering degrees, but due to restrictions that can't be discussed here, she is still on H1. There is still a chance that after waiting for 10 years for my PD to become current, she may still end up getting hers and I will happily ride her coattails ;-).

    The way we have been working through this is at first neither of us cared about the dates as we were traveling around experiencing different locations until the kids had to be in school. In the past year or so I have started following the dates as kids got in school and the lack of GC started impacting my wife's work in some sensitive areas, but she is still blissfully ignorant and wants to remain that way. It has become so comical at her workplace that at times she will be prepping some equipment for space flight and a USC will be sitting in the room doodling on something because those are the regulations.

    After you get to a certain age, you just make peace with your situation and go with the flow and focus on your family, friends and other things.
    Along with kids aging out or getting them all the opportunities when they go to college are a pain. Anyone with dates in 2009 and 2010 and kids at that time in the age group of 1 to 5 born outside can feel it.
    And it especially hurts to see kids them selves realizing when they are looking for opportunities and see the limited set with a SSN or GC.
    With more than 10 years and not even a EAD is not logical anywhere. Two people in early 2009 once already approved and is already a citizen and the other still waiting for GC.... shows the inefficiency of the system and allocation.
    Especially when it is an employment based GC dependent on skill sets and saying they will not discriminate based on race, religion, sex or belief and we still see that it is not true.

  10. #7160
    Freshman
    Join Date
    May 2020
    Location
    United States
    Posts
    8
    True this. My spouse and I are waiting in line for more than 10 years now. I stress out a lot more especially during H1B extensions. Wouldn't hurt to have GC now during the pandemic when job security is at a minimum.

  11. #7161
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Along with kids aging out or getting them all the opportunities when they go to college are a pain. Anyone with dates in 2009 and 2010 and kids at that time in the age group of 1 to 5 born outside can feel it.
    And it especially hurts to see kids them selves realizing when they are looking for opportunities and see the limited set with a SSN or GC.
    With more than 10 years and not even a EAD is not logical anywhere. Two people in early 2009 once already approved and is already a citizen and the other still waiting for GC.... shows the inefficiency of the system and allocation.
    Especially when it is an employment based GC dependent on skill sets and saying they will not discriminate based on race, religion, sex or belief and we still see that it is not true.
    Kids’ aging out is one of the worst things that can happen in a GC backlog. People keep talking about DACA, but no one talks about H4 kids aging out. I do a lot of volunteering for Indian language school and I have seen people on H1B roaming around without knowing that their kids will age out. When I ask them, they say GC will come eventually. Most are living care free. IMO it is better to be stressed about what is happening than living in peace because of ignorance.

    I sincerely pray that you get to file I485 with FA dates in the next year. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. We have already seen the difference between people with earlier 2009 PDs and later 2009 PDs. It is 8+ years difference in GC. When the movement stops at the end of 2021, it is going to create similar heartbreaks to people. i.e., people who get in in the 2021 quota and people who missed out.

  12. #7162
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    In most families there is one member who is stressing about GCs and visiting forums. If it is not the husband then it is the wife.

    I am not arguing against. However, I am placing alternate views below.

    In my opinion other than personal mindset, the stress on backlogged people is dependent on the industry / company. If you are in an industry other than IT services, there is a chance that it can go through unprecedented changes in 10 years (e.g. Automotive, Oil and Gas, Fossil / Nuclear Power, etc.,). For example if you got your Masters / PhD in IC engines and had joined Ford/GM on that expertise, then 10 years down the line you are facing against Tesla and your technology is dying. How are you going to get a job in same or similar category. There is little use to that Masters / PhD other than the course work and process you went through. In that time, the GC will help you to switch industries.

    I am sure the IT techies can also provide similar examples. Another thing that hurts some people till getting citizenship is employment in National Labs / EPA / FHA / NOAA / NRC / Govt. research jobs. A few years back these agencies were open to good H1B candidates through contract. Now things have changed dramatically especially under Trump admin. Sometimes we get comments such as he is an expert, however I don't want a H1B candidate. I can just hire 15 citizens and brute force the job. Shockingly that seems to be the mentality in some places.

    What i am saying is that, even if you are very good, you need some things to fall in place when you are in H1B status.
    Agree it is tough for us with the H1b baggage.. I do have same challenges( i believe everyone on the H1b pipeline has to go through it irrespective of the Domain we are in)... I was more pointing out like it is part and parcel of my life now( after being here for almost 15th H1b year and still waiting) and took the approach what Q pointed out at(it is not going to anyway make my issues with my GC goaway, it only helped me to get some sleep and enjoying with family without stressing toomuch and stressing people next to me unknowingly), so thought to keep it behind and work on other things , as there is no way we can change it.

    This forum folks helped me look at things differently, It can Q, Spec, Nishanth, Kanmani etall... I come here often ... we all are in this together... Hoping we all see somelight soon

  13. #7163
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    313
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Kids’ aging out is one of the worst things that can happen in a GC backlog. People keep talking about DACA, but no one talks about H4 kids aging out. I do a lot of volunteering for Indian language school and I have seen people on H1B roaming around without knowing that their kids will age out. When I ask them, they say GC will come eventually. Most are living care free. IMO it is better to be stressed about what is happening than living in peace because of ignorance.
    Agreed and you don't get the feel of it until the kids have entered high school. People who did master here in US may have some idea and I see a low probability that their kids fall in the aging out category. Its usually people who move here on H1 / L1 with kids and then realize that the High School and College admissions is a completely different ball game here when compared to choosing Engineering or Medicine or even (Phy Mat Chem) or ( Bio, Chem and Zoo) at +2 level.

  14. #7164
    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    Hi Q, remember the good old days...yes many moved and few goldies like you Spec still supporting the community, few like us still stuck in the line

    Agree with Q on the GC mindblock... i moved on with that mindset...got better job and GC line doesnot bother me much as it used to few years ago ....it comes when it comes
    So nice to hear from you. I am happy to hear that you got a better job and are a bit sanguine about GC. It will be when it will be isn't it?

    Quote Originally Posted by amulchandra View Post
    I got my green card 3 years ago but still can’t move on. I keep visiting this forum, reading the posts and agonizing about people who are still stuck. This journey is incredibly painful and is very hard to get over. Really appreciate the service being done by Q and Spec to this backlogged community. This site provided me solace when I felt depressed. Especially predictions by YTeleven used to create a lot of excitement. Thank you once again to everyone on this forum.

    Good luck to all who are still waiting.

    Amul
    You are not alone Amul, a ton of oldies keep visiting. People like GCQ who should be citizens by now - I keep seeing them. The ability to vent and see others in similar fate as yours makes the journey easy. And I also think that folks have been 99.99% times very civil courteous and helpful. And I don't mean just gurus but everybody participating.

    Quote Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b View Post
    Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond..
    Congrats my friend. All the best for future.

    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    In most families there is one member who is stressing about GCs and visiting forums. If it is not the husband then it is the wife.

    I am not arguing against. However, I am placing alternate views below.

    In my opinion other than personal mindset, the stress on backlogged people is dependent on the industry / company. If you are in an industry other than IT services, there is a chance that it can go through unprecedented changes in 10 years (e.g. Automotive, Oil and Gas, Fossil / Nuclear Power, etc.,). For example if you got your Masters / PhD in IC engines and had joined Ford/GM on that expertise, then 10 years down the line you are facing against Tesla and your technology is dying. How are you going to get a job in same or similar category. There is little use to that Masters / PhD other than the course work and process you went through. In that time, the GC will help you to switch industries.

    I am sure the IT techies can also provide similar examples. Another thing that hurts some people till getting citizenship is employment in National Labs / EPA / FHA / NOAA / NRC / Govt. research jobs. A few years back these agencies were open to good H1B candidates through contract. Now things have changed dramatically especially under Trump admin. Sometimes we get comments such as he is an expert, however I don't want a H1B candidate. I can just hire 15 citizens and brute force the job. Shockingly that seems to be the mentality in some places.

    What i am saying is that, even if you are very good, you need some things to fall in place when you are in H1B status.
    I worked with such an employer and that's why I was so mad at the whole GC backlog. Anxiety frustration and anger are all valid. Nothing to be ashamed of. There have been patches of my own life (other than GC journey) when I have felt these feelings and for me the things that have worked best was going on long walks with my wife.

    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    .. Two people in early 2009 once already approved and is already a citizen and the other still waiting for GC.... shows the inefficiency of the system and allocation.
    ...
    Not just inefficiency but inequity and injustice. Isn't it?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  15. #7165
    To getsaby:
    PD September 2009
    EBI3

  16. #7166
    "True That" to so many comments mentioned by folks above. About 60 to 80% of my working years have already gone waiting for GC and I don't even have an EAD in hand with no guarantee of getting it in the near future. I worked at one of my clients for well over 10 years but was never hired full time because of getting discriminated squarely by the client who has perfected the art of hiring large desi work force on contract to such an extent that they are literally running a slave farm. It is really frustrating and soul destroying. And to top it all we have got an openly anti immigrant admin. who takes great pleasure in harassing immigrants at every chance they get.

    It's just disgusting and repulsive what this immigration system has come to.

    No other country treats its immigrants with such disdain and at the same time exploit them to the fullest possible extent. Its' just unbelievable. None of us knew what deal we were signing up with this devil of a system.

    Hope we get through this on the other side safely.

    Peace.

  17. #7167
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Riverside CA
    Posts
    94
    Quote Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b View Post
    Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond..
    Congratulations h1bh1bh1b. Maybe you should change your handle name to GCGCGC now :-) . We celebrate your freedom.

  18. #7168
    Quote Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b View Post
    Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond..
    Congratulations !!!!

  19. #7169
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    gsiskind had his facebook livestream yesterday evening. https://www.facebook.com/siskindsuss...44942923582172. I did not listen to it. Here's someone's (wagecuck3) interpretation of what was discussed.
    Probably over the entire fiscal year and not in this bulletin. In any case, multiple year movement in one category seems far fetched. Maybe he thinks EB1I will be made current. They will stall EB2I per usual.

  20. #7170
    Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

    This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

    Any thoughts ?Please.

    Regards
    Inspired_P

  21. #7171
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

    This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

    Any thoughts ?Please.

    Regards
    Inspired_P
    Just my POV.. nothing is certain , take the job if it is something you are lookig for. As of now everything is speculation, assuming you plan to stay in H1b till you get green card and not use EAD.

    As your date might be current in next couple of years anyway..

  22. #7172
    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    Just my POV.. nothing is certain , take the job if it is something you are lookig for. As of now everything is speculation, assuming you plan to stay in H1b till you get green card and not use EAD.

    As your date might be current in next couple of years anyway..
    Thank you for your POV on this. I do plan on using EAD/AP for myself and my spouse if and when we can file. That is the whole reason why I am confused. I do not want to 'miss the boat' when the "once in a generation" spillover is used, and if it happens the dates are for sure to retrogress or halt for the next couple of years
    Is the unemployment due to COVID a concern ? Will it affect the new PERM application filed in the next fiscal year.

    Regards
    Inspired_P

  23. #7173
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

    This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

    Any thoughts ?Please.

    Regards
    Inspired_P
    You most likely will get current next year. Wait to see what happens in Oct Bulletin. If they move the DF dates, that will give you an indication. I have the opinion that if JB wins, most of the spillover will be used. If DT wins, then the admin will find some excuse to waste as much spillover as possible. So nothing is certain now.

    I have alternate view that you should stay with the current job. With PERM guidelines and the current COVID situation, it will not be easy to get a PERM and I140 through quickly.

  24. #7174
    Freshman
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Location
    California
    Posts
    4
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    Thank you for your POV on this. I do plan on using EAD/AP for myself and my spouse if and when we can file. That is the whole reason why I am confused. I do not want to 'miss the boat' when the "once in a generation" spillover is used, and if it happens the dates are for sure to retrogress or halt for the next couple of years
    Is the unemployment due to COVID a concern ? Will it affect the new PERM application filed in the next fiscal year.

    Regards
    Inspired_P
    My 2 cents..

    Don't mess with Immigration or GC, Jobs are not a big concern, compared to AoS.
    Even in COVID situation companies are hiring, as your date towards end of 2010, if you miss, it would like people missed in 2012 by few weeks/months, though dates may not retro too much, its better you give importance to GC over FT.
    There is no guarantee FT job itself is not Permanant, companies can layoff anytime.

  25. #7175
    Thank you.

    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post

    I have alternate view that you should stay with the current job. With PERM guidelines and the current COVID situation, it will not be easy to get a PERM and I140 through quickly.
    Yes. That is an additional concern, a bird in hand (approved PERM) seems more valuable right now.Even the current employer is not planning on filing any PERM this year due to the unemployment situation across the country.

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