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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #7126
    Got RFE in the end of 2012, 2014, 2016 in anticipation of getting current. Finally current and no RFE.

  2. #7127
    [QUOTE=rabp77;66120]Congratulations Karukon. We celebrate your freedom !!! Please use it to give back as much as possible to society and needy.[/QUOTE

    Irrespective of GC should have compassionate empathy. Agree no better times than these!

  3. #7128
    Quote Originally Posted by karukon View Post
    Got RFE in the end of 2012, 2014, 2016 in anticipation of getting current. Finally current and no RFE.
    Better this way! than the other way around ! Congrats

  4. #7129
    Quote Originally Posted by karukon View Post
    Got RFE in the end of 2012, 2014, 2016 in anticipation of getting current. Finally current and no RFE.
    Finally something goes your way unexpectedly. A pleasant surprise! Congratulations.
    I get happy seeing approvals from folks who have waited for a long time. People who do not go through this ordeal do not appreciate the importance of this piece of plastic.

  5. #7130
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Finally something goes your way unexpectedly. A pleasant surprise! Congratulations.
    I get happy seeing approvals from folks who have waited for a long time. People who do not go through this ordeal do not appreciate the importance of this piece of plastic.
    Who ever gets approved in EB2 and EB3 these would have waited a decade for sure. And we would not even have ventured out to do all these calculations and predictions if it was not for these unclear and arbitrary movements.

  6. #7131
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    IMO, it is good for the bulletin to come as late as possible. If it comes early, the folks at CIS/UsTechWorkers may have enough time to get it reversed. In my view, ideal movement would be 4-6 months every bulletin from now to December. Hopefully, when it comes out, we don't make too much noise as that will attract the antis.
    I think your wish is coming true. Its 2PM already, so doesn't look like VB is going to be released today.

    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Who ever gets approved in EB2 and EB3 these would have waited a decade for sure. And we would not even have ventured out to do all these calculations and predictions if it was not for these unclear and arbitrary movements.
    I agree. The OP got his GC approved when the RFE reply was pending. Something unexpected but good.

  7. #7132
    I wanted to check because of curiosity when the first of these threads was started:

    10-03-2010, 10:29 AM

    (:-O)

  8. #7133
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    I wanted to check because of curiosity when the first of these threads was started:

    10-03-2010, 10:29 AM

    (:-O)

    One Decade and still waiting. Let that sink in.

  9. #7134
    Quote Originally Posted by EB22010Dec View Post
    One Decade and still waiting. Let that sink in.
    I like to think of that as 25% of my life, hits home better.

  10. #7135
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    I wanted to check because of curiosity when the first of these threads was started:

    10-03-2010, 10:29 AM

    (:-O)
    Although many folks who were with us on that day, have moved on - received GC/citizenship and have prospered; personally it makes my head heavy thinking of everybody that is in the backlog today. All I can say is, focus on life, people you love, travel around, enjoy life and propser at your career. Remove the mental block of not having GC. You will surprised how well US workplace will treat you when you are confident.

    My best wishes to all.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #7136
    RBG is dead. There goes the rest of our civil liberties...

  12. #7137
    Sensei
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    Question
    My spouse h1b extension was filed on 8/31 and has still not received receipt. Can he still work post 9/30 without receiving receipt ( driver's license will also be expiring 10/10)?
    We will be asking attorney this week what they recommend or else have to convert to premium.
    Thankyou

  13. #7138
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    RBG is dead. There goes the rest of our civil liberties...

    Please enlighten us which "civil liberties" have gone with RBG's passing.



    Please at least name one because I cannot find even one civil liberty that has gone and here you are talking in plural.

  14. #7139
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Although many folks who were with us on that day, have moved on - received GC/citizenship and have prospered; personally it makes my head heavy thinking of everybody that is in the backlog today. All I can say is, focus on life, people you love, travel around, enjoy life and propser at your career. Remove the mental block of not having GC. You will surprised how well US workplace will treat you when you are confident.

    My best wishes to all.
    Well said. Not having GC does not prevent you from enjoying all the good things life has to offer. Don't watch every month's visa bulletin / every bill / every statement from politicos etc etc.


    If you think of GC think it as if it were your long term investments. You don't watch what happens to your WMT / AMZN / AAPL every few weeks. You know in 10 years they will be winners and you will be Greened or very close to it.

  15. #7140

  16. #7141
    Quote Originally Posted by altek001 View Post
    --Info on FY2021 FB to EB spillover

    https://www.adhikarilaw.com/news-and...s-all-current/
    " When American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) last spoke with Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. State Department in July 2020, he anticipated that the infusion of unused family-based visa numbers could increase the FY21 employment-based allocation to at least 250,000 immigrant visas.

    To put that into perspective, FY20’s employment-based allocation is the second highest allocation of employment-based numbers in memory, at 156,000, with the highest being 158,000. An employment-based allocation of 250,000 would reflect a 63% increase relative to the highest allocation in recent memory.
    "

  17. #7142
    Quote Originally Posted by altek001 View Post
    " When American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) last spoke with Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. State Department in July 2020, he anticipated that the infusion of unused family-based visa numbers could increase the FY21 employment-based allocation to at least 250,000 immigrant visas.

    To put that into perspective, FY20’s employment-based allocation is the second highest allocation of employment-based numbers in memory, at 156,000, with the highest being 158,000. An employment-based allocation of 250,000 would reflect a 63% increase relative to the highest allocation in recent memory.
    "
    This looks like recycled old info from the law firm. Does not look like fresh news from AILA / Check-in. I am wondering why the official channels and AILA are silent.

    What is interesting is that the Law firm still quotes:
    Moreover, movement in October may be more measured given that there have been some legislative efforts to recapture unused family-based visas for use by family-sponsored immigrants in FY21. At present, the likelihood of passing of any of these bills remains slim.
    With Justice RBG's death and the prevailing political environment, only CR to keep government running will pass. So we can relax on the legislation front (at least till February 2021). I don't think legislation will be able to do it retroactively without harming others. So, each month adds about 10K of spillover from FB pool.

  18. #7143
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by altek001 View Post
    " When American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) last spoke with Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. State Department in July 2020, he anticipated that the infusion of unused family-based visa numbers could increase the FY21 employment-based allocation to at least 250,000 immigrant visas.

    To put that into perspective, FY20’s employment-based allocation is the second highest allocation of employment-based numbers in memory, at 156,000, with the highest being 158,000. An employment-based allocation of 250,000 would reflect a 63% increase relative to the highest allocation in recent memory.
    "
    They seem to have a limited memory.

    Here's the EB allocation and Use for EB back to 1993:

    - FY ------ Alloc. ----- Use
    FY1993 --- 161,207 --- 161,207
    FY1994 --- 143,213 --- 113,783
    FY1995 --- 146,503 ---- 87,809
    FY1996 --- 140,000 --- 118,827
    FY1997 --- 140,000 ---- 99,290
    FY1998 --- 140,000 ---- 86,429
    FY1999 --- 160,906 ---- 61,965
    FY2000 --- 142,299 --- 111,166
    FY2001 --- 192,074 --- 186,536
    FY2002 --- 142,632 --- 171,583
    FY2003 --- 171,532 ---- 83,020
    FY2004 --- 204,422 --- 157,107
    FY2005 --- 148,449 --- 242,293
    FY2006 --- 143,949 --- 133,622
    FY2007 --- 147,148 --- 154,460
    FY2008 --- 162,704 --- 162,949
    FY2009 --- 140,000 --- 140,987
    FY2010 --- 150,657 --- 150,262
    FY2011 --- 140,000 --- 139,302
    FY2012 --- 144,951 --- 144,648
    FY2013 --- 158,466 --- 161,269
    FY2014 --- 150,241 --- 151,359
    FY2015 --- 144,796 --- 143,954
    FY2016 --- 140,338 --- 140,350
    FY2017 --- 140,000 --- 139,604
    FY2018 --- 140,292 --- 139,483
    FY2019 --- 141,918 --- 140,586
    FY2020 --- 156,253 --- ???,???

    As recently as FY2008, the allocation was more than the 158k mentioned.

    The maximum number of approvals in a FY during that period was in FY2005 (during visa recapture) with 242,293 approvals. The 2nd highest was in FY2001 with 186,536 approvals.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  19. #7144
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    They seem to have a limited memory.

    Here's the EB allocation and Use for EB back to 1993:

    ...............
    Awesome spectator
    This year 2021 could be highest EB allocation if utilized properly(250k atleast per article)

  20. #7145
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    This looks like recycled old info from the law firm. Does not look like fresh news from AILA / Check-in. I am wondering why the official channels and AILA are silent.

    What is interesting is that the Law firm still quotes:


    With Justice RBG's death and the prevailing political environment, only CR to keep government running will pass. So we can relax on the legislation front (at least till February 2021). I don't think legislation will be able to do it retroactively without harming others. So, each month adds about 10K of spillover from FB pool.
    No! This is published by AILA on their website as a practice pointer! All law firms have access to this document #AILA Doc. No. 20091810 which was published on 09/18

  21. #7146
    Quote Originally Posted by NJMavarick View Post
    No! This is published by AILA on their website as a practice pointer! All law firms have access to this document #AILA Doc. No. 20091810 which was published on 09/18
    The post read it as if it was copied from earlier check-in. Thank you for your reference and validation. If someone has access to the AILA document, please share relevant paragraphs.

    Surprised that the DOS did not give advance guidance/info to AILA till now. No idea of what's actually happening behind the scenes. If so, they might even delay the VB till next week.

  22. #7147
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post


    The maximum number of approvals in a FY during that period was in FY2005 (during visa recapture) with 242,293 approvals. The 2nd highest was in FY2001 with 186,536 approvals.
    This is a long shot, Spec. But, do you want to create a mini-tsunami by putting your predictions here for 250,000 visa numbers? (based on whatever data is available).

  23. #7148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    They seem to have a limited memory.

    Here's the EB allocation and Use for EB back to 1993:

    - FY ------ Alloc. ----- Use
    FY1993 --- 161,207 --- 161,207
    FY1994 --- 143,213 --- 113,783
    FY1995 --- 146,503 ---- 87,809
    FY1996 --- 140,000 --- 118,827
    FY1997 --- 140,000 ---- 99,290
    FY1998 --- 140,000 ---- 86,429
    FY1999 --- 160,906 ---- 61,965
    FY2000 --- 142,299 --- 111,166
    FY2001 --- 192,074 --- 186,536
    FY2002 --- 142,632 --- 171,583
    FY2003 --- 171,532 ---- 83,020
    FY2004 --- 204,422 --- 157,107
    FY2005 --- 148,449 --- 242,293
    FY2006 --- 143,949 --- 133,622
    FY2007 --- 147,148 --- 154,460
    FY2008 --- 162,704 --- 162,949
    FY2009 --- 140,000 --- 140,987
    FY2010 --- 150,657 --- 150,262
    FY2011 --- 140,000 --- 139,302
    FY2012 --- 144,951 --- 144,648
    FY2013 --- 158,466 --- 161,269
    FY2014 --- 150,241 --- 151,359
    FY2015 --- 144,796 --- 143,954
    FY2016 --- 140,338 --- 140,350
    FY2017 --- 140,000 --- 139,604
    FY2018 --- 140,292 --- 139,483
    FY2019 --- 141,918 --- 140,586
    FY2020 --- 156,253 --- ???,???

    As recently as FY2008, the allocation was more than the 158k mentioned.

    The maximum number of approvals in a FY during that period was in FY2005 (during visa recapture) with 242,293 approvals. The 2nd highest was in FY2001 with 186,536 approvals.
    It would be great if all the spillover visas from FB are used without any processing bottlenecks getting in the way. The FB categories are severely backlogged to and it would be a shame to waste those visa numbers without utilizing them in either category

  24. #7149
    Quote Originally Posted by gs1968 View Post
    It would be great if all the spillover visas from FB are used without any processing bottlenecks getting in the way. The FB categories are severely backlogged to and it would be a shame to waste those visa numbers without utilizing them in either category
    Not to throw a wrench but will the unused FY21 EB numbers SO to FB FY22? Spec, Q?

  25. #7150
    Quote Originally Posted by NJMavarick View Post
    Not to throw a wrench but will the unused FY21 EB numbers SO to FB FY22? Spec, Q?
    What are INA laws around FB to EB and EB to FB spillover

    * Family spillover goes to EB
    * EB spillover goes to FB
    https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64774

    Does this mean that spillovers that go from EB to FB can come back next year?

    For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
    https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64819

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