EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[vsivarama]

The total number till end of 2010 is difficult to calculate without the recent 485 pending inventory. For Eb2 at least the multiplier of 2.0 will not be applicable as we kind of know the numbers til April 2010 (though we have no clue of current upto date numbers). If we had recent 485 bulletins we could take the numbers for EB2 and EB3 as is from the inventory and then added the multiplier to the petitions for the rest of the year. But 50K total for EB2+EB3 without knowledge of duplicates or abandoned petitions is a good start. For EB3, I would be surprised if we had anything more than 15K till the end of Dec 2010 (without accounting for the potential downporting).

[amarrecherla]

Assuming that CO is ready to move dates based on extra 100k+ visas to EB, I think dates will be moved aggressively only after October (in Nov/Dec bulletin) based on these factors:
1) Possibility of bill before October to stop spillover (We know this is highly unlikely, but CO would like to wait)
2) Spillover is not official until Nov/Dec

Is my understanding correct?

[EB2IndSep09]

Assuming that CO is ready to move dates based on extra 100k+ visas to EB, I think dates will be moved aggressively only after October (in Nov/Dec bulletin) based on these factors:
1) Possibility of bill before October to stop spillover (We know this is highly unlikely, but CO would like to wait)
2) Spillover is not official until Nov/Dec

Is my understanding correct?

Depends on your definition of aggressively. Irrespective of the SO dates has to move as the new fiscal year quota to begin in October and that quarter's numbers must be allocated.
Now coming to your questions as Q mentioned in his previous post, SO is a right and has to be applied starting new fiscal year that is starting October. There is every possibility CO wants to wait and watch or administration might put their foot down etc all those are speculations which doesn't have any weighted for doing guess work.

Let us all be grounded on the situation of EB2 and EB3 India, we have seen zero movement to 1 or 2 days movement in past 4 years. Personally any movement like June/July Visa Bulletin 1.5 months, I call it aggressive as it became a new normal.

[Crypto]

Question for people whose PD is current post July 2020. Any idea how many of the one's who are current got there GC card mail and what is the wait time for GC printing at this point? I am still waiting and hence wondering what is over all delay expectation I should have?

[Crypto]

Question for people whose PD is current post July 2020. Any idea how many of the one's who are current got there GC card mail and what is the wait time for GC printing at this point? I am still waiting and hence wondering what is over all delay expectation I should have?

Itna Sannata kyu hai bhai !!!!

[android09]

Itna Sannata kyu hai bhai !!!!

Ab bolne ke liye baaki kya reh gaya hai ??

[TB12TB12]

Itna Sannata kyu hai bhai !!!!

Client ko billing karte huey Q ke website pe aney ki aadat lagi hai - Long weekend hai bhai

[qesehmk]

[rocketfast]

[monsieur]

Calm/Storm pic

Egjactly my thought... Hopefully this is calm before the storm of date movements.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Only if the immigration attorneys lobby and work as hard for EB applicants in preventing visa wastage like they are doing for DV applicants...

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Egjactly my thought... Hopefully this is calm before the storm of date movements.

I feel it's more like the calm before the s*it storm.

[karukon]

Happy to share the good news. Got status change of 485 approval. Wish every one to get greened, all the best!

[EB2IndSep09]

Happy to share the good news. Got status change of 485 approval. Wish every one to get greened, all the best!

Congratulations!!

[rabp77]

Question for people whose PD is current post July 2020. Any idea how many of the one's who are current got there GC card mail and what is the wait time for GC printing at this point? I am still waiting and hence wondering what is over all delay expectation I should have?

If you look at recent trackitt data, currently it takes around 3-4 weeks to get the card after the i-485 has been approved. So the answer to your question is around 3-4 weeks for printing after approval.

[AceMan]

Shanthi meih dum hai :-)

[lville]

Question for people whose PD is current post July 2020. Any idea how many of the one's who are current got there GC card mail and what is the wait time for GC printing at this point? I am still waiting and hence wondering what is over all delay expectation I should have?

After my interview case was approved next day. From that day 1 it took approximately 3 weeks to get my card in hand. This is for folks with interview, whose files are moving around and active. If you are one of the guys who did not require interview and your file is at main office like NBC and not been touched for years, I've no idea about the timeline. Hopefully not much delay. However they are having significant delays with printing cards after your case is approved.

[EB2IndSep09]

After my interview case was approved next day. From that day 1 it took approximately 3 weeks to get my card in hand. This is for folks with interview, whose files are moving around and active. If you are one of the guys who did not require interview and your file is at main office like NBC and not been touched for years, I've no idea about the timeline. Hopefully not much delay. However they are having significant delays with card printing after your case is approved.

Thanks for sharing Iville. Could you share the dates for the benefit of readers please as things were very volatile during this pandemic.

[lville]

Thanks for sharing Iville. Could you share the dates for the benefit of readers please as things were very volatile during this pandemic.

My Interview was on 07/27/2020. My case was approved on 07/28/2020 and I got my card in hand on 08/20/2020

[GCMirage]

What was the interview like? Was it in person or a voice/video call? Does the officer inspect your certificates/exp letters etc., or is it just a formality ?

[longwaitgigu]

Greg siskind and other AILA have filed a lawsuit for FB immigrants also ( DV is won and ordered to start processing visa but cannot enter till December31 per proclamation). If the court orders FB immigrants to start processing visa( hearing is tomorrow), is it possible from October 1st ( if consulate open)- what lateral spillover we r expecting will not be given
I assumed this also the uscis will not have so much time to consume the FB numbers so possibility of spillover is still there. But not sure how CP will affect from October

[rabp77]

Greg siskind and other AILA have filed a lawsuit for FB immigrants also ( DV is won and ordered to start processing visa but cannot enter till December31 per proclamation). If the court orders FB immigrants to start processing visa( hearing is tomorrow), is it possible from October 1st ( if consulate open)- what lateral spillover we r expecting will not be given
I assumed this also the uscis will not have so much time to consume the FB numbers so possibility of spillover is still there. But not sure how CP will affect from October

Spillover is a certainty, unless laws are changed by Congress.

[longwaitgigu]

Spillover is a certainty, unless laws are changed by Congress.

I am not saying we will not get spillover
Read my post
My concern is the lateral spillover which is given quarterly and other is 7% rule for visas given to each country- that includes EB and FB
So if the lawsuit is won- FB starts and CP EB starts which leaves AOS in limbo and CO not moving dates aggressively

[qesehmk]

Spillover is a certainty, unless laws are changed by Congress.

This is absolutely correct. The year 2020 is practically over and the spillover has become a certainty. It is going to be quite substantial (100K + - 10K).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Greg siskind and other AILA have filed a lawsuit for FB immigrants also ( DV is won and ordered to start processing visa but cannot enter till December31 per proclamation). If the court orders FB immigrants to start processing visa( hearing is tomorrow), is it possible from October 1st ( if consulate open)- what lateral spillover we r expecting will not be given
I assumed this also the uscis will not have so much time to consume the FB numbers so possibility of spillover is still there. But not sure how CP will affect from October

There's literally 15 working days left in the FY2020. No way they process excess of 100k visas in that time.