EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[NJMavarick]

The spillover will be available until and unless law passes through Congress before September 30- which is least possibility
That's not my concern
Its CP processing which will bring halt to eb3I and again CO will move conservatively and AOS will be stuck for eb3 specifically
Now the argument will be consulates won't open soon for ROW and not able to consume all numbers then they r wasted
So per IMO EO needs to stay put till atleast end of this year for people in eb2 and eb3 end of 2010 to atleast get an ead

CP for EB3I would be negligible given the SO numbers. All things considered, ROW has the potential to be current across all 3 categories and EB3I will also be able to get a sizable number of visas from the SO. There is no way EB3ROW would consume 32K extra visas. I think 20K of that would go to EB3I

[NJMavarick]

Yes, some visas will be wasted due sheer laziness of a government agency. This is unfortunately how all government agencies operate. I got to experience that first hand when I visited local DMV recently. That is beyond our control, but what we can do is to focus on what we can control. For example, everybody should keep their papers ready and respond to their RFEs ASAP without wasting any time. That will not only help their case, but will also help people waiting after them.

Regarding USCIS furlough, that is a political spectacle. So, don't pay attention to all that noise. In the worst case scenario, there will be a furlough of 8-10 days, and then the congress will be FORCED to act. USCIS is too important of an agency to be closed for months. That is never going to happen.

Regarding new reforms, I have closely watched all prior reform attempts (one during President Bush and one during President Obama), and also S.386, and stupidly believed after listening to those passionate speeches by the senators on both sides, that it was going to happen back then. The only thing I can say now is, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!" So, take it now what you get and hopefully we can make the most of it.

Well, in that case "do not count your chickens before they hatch" can also hold true for all of us Here we are, talking about big SO numbers. For all we know, the dates just move a few months for the whole of next fiscal year....anything is possible and government cannot be held accountable for under-utilization of visas. Regardless of who wins the Presidency, this is another possibility....

[vedu]

Well, in that case "do not count your chickens before they hatch" can also hold true for all of us Here we are, talking about big SO numbers. For all we know, the dates just move a few months for the whole of next fiscal year....anything is possible and government cannot be held accountable for under-utilization of visas. Regardless of who wins the Presidency, this is another possibility....

Yes, I completely agree. That's why I mentioned in one of my previous posts about not jinxing it. Only seeing is believing. So, "do not count your chickens before they hatch" is very true. Also, historically, USCIS always wasted visas whether DT or no DT.

[idliman]

Yes, I completely agree. That's why I mentioned in one of my previous posts about not jinxing it. Only seeing is believing. So, "do not count your chickens before they hatch" is very true. Also, historically, USCIS always wasted visas whether DT or no DT.

I can see that everyone that missed the 2012 bus has "more wisdom" due to the "life lessons" that has been forced on them. We all know of 2 or 3 people who got in on 2012 and now they are Citizens.

Not jinxing anything, I think we all need to wait for the next Check-in with CO. The admin and CO control the show. I honestly think no one can predict anything (with any cone of probability). Try to stay grounded to avoid any disappointment.

The one positive thing that I am seeing is a lot of EB3I approvals and EB2I RFEs in trackitt in this week. I don't care if it is EB2I or EB3I or ROW as long as they clear most of the people that are current. Bottom line is the "Q" in-front of you needs to clear somehow.

[longwaitgigu]

CP for EB3I would be negligible given the SO numbers. All things considered, ROW has the potential to be current across all 3 categories and EB3I will also be able to get a sizable number of visas from the SO. There is no way EB3ROW would consume 32K extra visas. I think 20K of that would go to EB3I

CP is done by ROW too
So again extra CP numbers won't spillover to EB3 I

[android09]

Hopefully, JB is able to bring about some reform. Given the amount of visas available for next year, FAD can easily each Q3/4 2011. Visas have been wasted this year and they will be next year as well.

FAD will only move by a few months or maybe less in October Bulletin based on the bare minimum allocation of 5K for both EB2 / EB3. I think DOS needs to be inform USCIS in writing about the SO number before the dates can be moved IMO. I would think Nov / December bulletin is what we need to watch out for.

This is considering USCIS funding bill is passed in September alongwith the Stimulus bill otherwise...we are in for disappointment...

I think Q3/Q4 2011 is a bit too optimistic. If anything, maybe Jan or Feb 2011. That too is very doubtful. CO has been on burned before by moving dates aggressively and then having to retrogress things. From what he's said before, he will allocate spillover cautiously and over many months and will continue to monitor ROW demand. I fully expect him to say ROW demand has surged and therefore EB2 and EB3 cannot be given more than their 7% of the spill over.

[NJMavarick]

I think Q3/Q4 2011 is a bit too optimistic. If anything, maybe Jan or Feb 2011. That too is very doubtful. CO has been on burned before by moving dates aggressively and then having to retrogress things. From what he's said before, he will allocate spillover cautiously and over many months and will continue to monitor ROW demand. I fully expect him to say ROW demand has surged and therefore EB2 and EB3 cannot be given more than their 7% of the spill over.

I am in no way suggesting that the dates will reach Q3/4 2011. I am saying in an ideal world where the SO is correctly utilized then that is a possibility!

2 years movement is not unreasonable given the demand and the SO number.

[NJMavarick]

CP is done by ROW too
So again extra CP numbers won't spillover to EB3 I

Sure. You need to understand that EB3 is also going to get ~32-34K visas which is 28.6% of the 100-120K SO number.

With these many visas, EB3ROW will get current so CP or no CP..it does not matter. There is no WAY EB3ROW will utilize so many visas and there will definitely be horizontal SO to EB3I.

Will CO make it current or apply SO? Look EB2/3I in total should get in excess of 70K visas combined. There will be vertical SO from EB1I as well...as EB1ROW is current and EB1 is not having so much demand...

Again, this is in an ideal world...USCIS can do what they feel like with zero accountability...

[vsivarama]

I see two likely scenarios going forward. i) CP is opened up and USCIS utilizes close to the entire spillover available in the next FY or ii) CP remains closed and bulk (if not all) of the spillover visa numbers are wasted. I do NOT see a scenario where CP is closed and USCIS still somehow utilizes the entire spillover as some seem to be indicating. So pick your poison. I am all in for "CP Opening up and entire spillover being utilized"

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am just glad I quit drinking about 15 years back.

[NJMavarick]

I see two likely scenarios going forward. i) CP is opened up and USCIS utilizes close to the entire spillover available in the next FY or ii) CP remains closed and bulk (if not all) of the spillover visa numbers are wasted. I do NOT see a scenario where CP is closed and USCIS still somehow utilizes the entire spillover as some seem to be indicating. So pick your poison. I am all in for "CP Opening up and entire spillover being utilized"

For " i" - How? Unless you are being satirical of USCIS, I fail to understand that if CP is opened up then how can the entire SO be utilized by EB3ROW? EB1 and EB2ROW is current.

SO can be wasted regardless of CP being open or closed. On October 1st the SO will be available to EB unless Congress passes a law to stop that.

[NJMavarick]

I am just glad I quit drinking about 15 years back.

and I started 15 years back

[vedu]

This year CP was closed due to COVID, and hence we can at least dream of getting spill across of 100,000 from FB to EB. Once CP is open, FB will start using the numbers next year (starting from October) and subsequently there will be no or substantially less spill-across in 2022 as compared to what we are expecting in 2021....right? Am I missing something here? And if this is true, then people with PDs in 2012 and onward will suffer. If USCIS uses even 50% of the next year's spill across, 2010 folks will be in the clear. It is for 2012 and to some extent, 2011 folks to pick the poison of CP open OR not open. Glad I am not one of them.

[NJMavarick]

This year CP was closed due to COVID, and hence we can at least dream of getting spill across of 100,000 from FB to EB. Once CP is open, FB will start using the numbers next year (starting from October) and subsequently there will be no or substantially less spill-across in 2022 as compared to what we are expecting in 2021....right? Am I missing something here? And if this is true, then people with PDs in 2012 and onward will suffer. If USCIS uses even 50% of the next year's spill across, 2010 folks will be in the clear. It is for 2012 and to some extent, 2011 folks to pick the poison of CP open OR not open. Glad I am not one of them.

Yes. I do not see much SO for FY2022 if JB wins but if T wins then expect SO. How much? Its too early to gauge...

The only good thing is that Congress is now much more aware of the discriminatory country cap and the effect it has on the backlogged folks. I would think that in the next 4 years, reform of some kind can happen.

[longwaitgigu]

Nothing is in our control
IMO if lawsuit is won- CP starts ( I am not sure lawsuit is filed for EB CP people also), but consulate may not be open soon enough so sure to get some SO. When CP starts CO has one more reason ( on top of slow processing and uscis reduced capacity)about the unknown numbers ( may be with PD from 2007, 2008, 2009) used by CP specifically EB3 INDIA and will not move dates drastically.
So in ideal scenario- if lawsuit is not won and CP closes for rest of year ( more ideal scenario IMO if DT wins and EO extends and CP closes for june 2021, then predictions for 2010 and mid 2011 can come true for dream green card)
Let's see what happens

[vsivarama]

For " i" - How? Unless you are being satirical of USCIS, I fail to understand that if CP is opened up then how can the entire SO be utilized by EB3ROW? EB1 and EB2ROW is current.

SO can be wasted regardless of CP being open or closed. On October 1st the SO will be available to EB unless Congress passes a law to stop that.

I was making a statement with political implications in mind. CP being open means a shift of power in the white house. If that is the case, there maybe some pressure on USCIS to uphold the laws. If there is no change of guard then you can kiss CP and SO goodbye. I am not suggesting that opening up of CP will eat into SO for EBI. My evidence - We had SO from FB last year come to EB which was promptly wasted. I do not foresee a scenario where we get SO from FB and it being properly allocated to EB folks if the current admin persists.

[vedu]

I was making a statement with political implications in mind. CP being open means a shift of power in the white house. If that is the case, there maybe some pressure on USCIS to uphold the laws. If there is no change of guard then you can kiss CP and SO goodbye. I am not suggesting that opening up of CP will eat into SO for EBI. My evidence - We had SO from FB last year come to EB which was promptly wasted. I do not foresee a scenario where we get SO from FB and it being properly allocated to EB folks if the current admin persists.

Did you notice on Trackitt? As idliman mentioned, EB3I approvals and EB2I RFEs are raining. Also, we only had COVID for half of the year, and already since the beginning of the year, EB1I dates jumped by 15.5 months, EB3I dates jumped by 9 months, and EB2I moved through two of the highest demand months in 2009. If there was a malevolent intent, they would have never let that happen. Yes, we do need to discount some visas for their general laziness. Wait for a couple of months, and your remaining doubts will be answered provided that nobody tries to divert SO back to FB.

[vsivarama]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

[vedu]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

Yes, I understand the fear, but the very fact that the news network like breitbart has started crying foul means they got the inkling that DOS is shifting 100,000 visas to EB. It is happening.

[qesehmk]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

Rest assured law here is quite clear. The limit next year will include ALL the unused FB visas from 2020. If the number is 100K then limit next year will be 240K. No question about that.

[Sebiswaiting]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF

This report was created in April 2018. As per report from USCIS, as of April 2018, below were pending i140 numbers for India :
EB1i - ~35k
EB2i - ~216k
EB3i - ~55k
Since then, most of these EB1 are probably cleared as the date had moved to 2018 March. With higher scrutiny, I believe EB1 application is lower after 2018.

For EB2 , average of 25k applications per year (2009 Jan to 2018 april).
For EB3 , average of say 6 k per year.
These average numbers are flawed, but considered for simplicity.

These numbers are applicants only, so actual count will be double.

Can we use these pending numbers as pessimistic base for calculations or am I missing something?

Pessimistic base because, I don't know if an applicant is counted once or twice if s/he has more than 1 i140. Or cases where husband and wife both has pending i140 etc

Based on these numbers and if spillover is really in 100-120k , we can see more than a year movement in eb2 and couple years in eb3. And then the downgrade from eb3 to eb2 will change things. Also distribution of pending cases in all these years can change things.

Question again for the grandmasters/experts - Can we use these numbers for some analysis with your sea of knowledge?
Are you aware of any tracking done anywhere on downgrade ?

We came in 2010's and our priority dates are in 2014 and 2015..And so far never saw any light at end of the tunnel. So , hoping for significant spillover and analysis in search of some light!!

[eb2may2010]

Came here in 2003.. filed first labor in 2008.. company got shutdown in the recession..so had to do a new labor filing in 2010.. it's been nonstop waiting..nowadays I wake up and check immigration news everyday ..checking for visa bulletins and Check-ins with CO.. hope the spillover offers some relief because this is getting very tiring

[rocketfast]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF

This report was created in April 2018. As per report from USCIS, as of April 2018, below were pending i140 numbers for India :
EB1i - ~35k
EB2i - ~216k
EB3i - ~55k
Since then, most of these EB1 are probably cleared as the date had moved to 2018 March. With higher scrutiny, I believe EB1 application is lower after 2018.

For EB2 , average of 25k applications per year (2009 Jan to 2018 april).
For EB3 , average of say 6 k per year.
These average numbers are flawed, but considered for simplicity.

These numbers are applicants only, so actual count will be double.

Can we use these pending numbers as pessimistic base for calculations or am I missing something?

Pessimistic base because, I don't know if an applicant is counted once or twice if s/he has more than 1 i140. Or cases where husband and wife both has pending i140 etc

Based on these numbers and if spillover is really in 100-120k , we can see more than a year movement in eb2 and couple years in eb3. And then the downgrade from eb3 to eb2 will change things. Also distribution of pending cases in all these years can change things.

Question again for the grandmasters/experts - Can we use these numbers for some analysis with your sea of knowledge?
Are you aware of any tracking done anywhere on downgrade ?

We came in 2010's and our priority dates are in 2014 and 2015..And so far never saw any light at end of the tunnel. So , hoping for significant spillover and analysis in search of some light!!

IMO, number of PERMs per year will give you better per year data than averaging out all number of approved I-140s. I don't remember, in which post Spec had summarized it, but here are the numbers:

EB3+Eb2 PERM


India --- Certified
CY2007 --- 23,098
CY2008 --- 23,746
CY2009 --- 16,672
CY2010 --- 22,361
CY2011 --- 30,024
CY2012 --- 37,260
CY2013 --- 36,159
CY2014 --- 41,336
CY2015 --- 45,535
CY2016 --- 49,028

You can read back a few pages for actual rough predictions. Generally, it makes sense to assume that EB2 and EB3 are the same queue. As and when EB3 moves > 6 months ahead, people are going to downport. We cannot guess on duplicates or abandoned applications (that is returned to India for good) with any known data that we have already come across.

[Sebiswaiting]

Thank you. This is helpful.

[NJMavarick]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

Your fears are valid! I too do not expect 100% utilization of the EB visas allocated. I would bet that 60% of the SO can still be used which is 72K visas (based in 120K SO ). This can still move the dates considerably.

It all depends upon CO and knowing his conservative approach, the dates will definitely move but not as aggressive as we would like.