EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[rocketfast]

Do they apply the 100k SO immediately? What percentage will go to EB2 and EB3 I? If everything holds good, is a substantial movement deep into 2010 or 2011 possible?

You can plugin 100,000 to this post: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post62399

You will see that EB1, EB2 and EB3 will get 28,600 GCs extra.

* EB1ROW is current and has less demand (based on spillovers to EB1-I this year), so all the 28,600 will go to EB1-I. Generally there is 10,000 EB1-I demand a year, and since they are 2 years backlogged, you can assume that they will take up 20,000 of it and give remaining 8600 to EB2.

* EB2ROW is current. But, it likely has more demand than the yearly available numbers by around 8600. So, you can guess-estimate that around 28,600 will come to EB2-I.

* EB3ROW is not current. Their 1 year worth of extra demand is anybody's guess. But we also know that EB3-I demand is extremely thin as almost everyone has moved on to EB2-I.

On the demand side, we know that in year 2010, 22,000 PERMs were approved for EB-I. So, worst case, there is a demand of 44,000.

Now, it is really up to you on how you want to adjust these numbers for optimistic/pessimistic scenarios. I for one, do believe that if USCIS has the intention to use up all the numbers, dates will need to move to early 2011 in both EB2-I and EB3-I and they will have to do this in the Oct-Dec quarter of this year.

[usvisas]

* But we also know that EB3-I demand is extremely thin as almost everyone has moved on to EB2-I.

Makes sense to me, except this part above.

I do believe that porter numbers (EB2I to EB3I) after around mid-2009 should be far too less relatively. And those that ported beyond mid-2009, would actually come back to their EB3 by interfiling. Thus using EB3I numbers. I dont expect EB3I numbers to be as thin as most have been thinking.

Just my 2 cents..

[H1b2006]

so all of you pray for next 2 weeks dates will move in Oct bulletin

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

You can plugin 100,000 to this post: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post62399

... dates will need to move to early 2011 in both EB2-I and EB3-I and they will have to do this in the Oct-Dec quarter of this year.

Filing Dates or Final Action? With our luck, they will only move the FD and keep it there for the foreseeable future and not let anyone use it.

[android09]

You can plugin 100,000 to this post: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post62399

You will see that EB1, EB2 and EB3 will get 28,600 GCs extra.

* EB1ROW is current and has less demand (based on spillovers to EB1-I this year), so all the 28,600 will go to EB1-I. Generally there is 10,000 EB1-I demand a year, and since they are 2 years backlogged, you can assume that they will take up 20,000 of it and give remaining 8600 to EB2.

* EB2ROW is current. But, it likely has more demand than the yearly available numbers by around 8600. So, you can guess-estimate that around 28,600 will come to EB2-I.

* EB3ROW is not current. Their 1 year worth of extra demand is anybody's guess. But we also know that EB3-I demand is extremely thin as almost everyone has moved on to EB2-I.

On the demand side, we know that in year 2010, 22,000 PERMs were approved for EB-I. So, worst case, there is a demand of 44,000.

Now, it is really up to you on how you want to adjust these numbers for optimistic/pessimistic scenarios. I for one, do believe that if USCIS has the intention to use up all the numbers, dates will need to move to early 2011 in both EB2-I and EB3-I and they will have to do this in the Oct-Dec quarter of this year.

Great post. Thanks for the explanation. I wonder what "early" 2011 means from your perspective? Jan 1, 2011 or March 30,2011 or what? Personally, I feel CO will not make any drastic moves for EB2 and EB3 but rather make small but significant changes(2-4 months each bulletin) and raise it through the year and then come August/Sept 2021, waste a boatload of visas.

[vckomara]

2-4 months sounds like massive movement compared to what we have been used to. I am just two months away (Sept 2, 2009). Hope to finally clear it this year and get GC and move on from the current company and become an entrepreneur.

[AceMan]

You can plugin 100,000 to this post: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post62399

You will see that EB1, EB2 and EB3 will get 28,600 GCs extra.

* EB1ROW is current and has less demand (based on spillovers to EB1-I this year), so all the 28,600 will go to EB1-I. Generally there is 10,000 EB1-I demand a year, and since they are 2 years backlogged, you can assume that they will take up 20,000 of it and give remaining 8600 to EB2.

* EB2ROW is current. But, it likely has more demand than the yearly available numbers by around 8600. So, you can guess-estimate that around 28,600 will come to EB2-I.

* EB3ROW is not current. Their 1 year worth of extra demand is anybody's guess. But we also know that EB3-I demand is extremely thin as almost everyone has moved on to EB2-I.

On the demand side, we know that in year 2010, 22,000 PERMs were approved for EB-I. So, worst case, there is a demand of 44,000.

Now, it is really up to you on how you want to adjust these numbers for optimistic/pessimistic scenarios. I for one, do believe that if USCIS has the intention to use up all the numbers, dates will need to move to early 2011 in both EB2-I and EB3-I and they will have to do this in the Oct-Dec quarter of this year.

My new theory after a string of successful failed theories over the last 5 years.

For FY21, as a ball park, for 2010 PD's, you can put about 1500-2000 total users GC demand per month for EB2/3 combined. This should result in demand of about 24,000 for 2010 PD's alone. 2009 PD's is expected to consume another 10,000-11,000.

So if EB2/3 I can tap in minimum 35,000 visas for FY 2021 the numbers should be good to clear FY 2010 for both.

[android09]

My new theory after a string of successful failed theories over the last 5 years.

For FY21, as a ball park, for 2010 PD's, you can put about 1500-2000 total users GC demand per month for EB2/3 combined. This should result in demand of about 24,000 for 2010 PD's alone. 2009 PD's is expected to consume another 10,000-11,000.

So if EB2/3 I can tap in minimum 35,000 visas for FY 2021 the numbers should be good to clear FY 2010 for both.

Does this factor in Consular processing cases as well or are these only AOS?

[EB2IndSep09]

My new theory after a string of successful failed theories over the last 5 years.

For FY21, as a ball park, for 2010 PD's, you can put about 1500-2000 total users GC demand per month for EB2/3 combined. This should result in demand of about 24,000 for 2010 PD's alone. 2009 PD's is expected to consume another 10,000-11,000.

So if EB2/3 I can tap in minimum 35,000 visas for FY 2021 the numbers should be good to clear FY 2010 for both.

Has there been a guesstimate on the numbers who left the country during economic crisis but continued their GC processing into 2010? Sorry if Spec or other Gurus calculated that number already and I missed to read.
These are people who came back and are yet to file AOS, not waiting for CP. This number might be insignificant but every number adds up and becomes a reason for CO not to move dates as we all expect him to.

[longwaitgigu]

Has there been a guesstimate on the numbers who left the country during economic crisis but continued their GC processing into 2010? Sorry if Spec or other Gurus calculated that number already and I missed to read.
These are people who came back and are yet to file AOS, not waiting for CP. This number might be insignificant but every number adds up and becomes a reason for CO not to move dates as we all expect him to.

IMO the backlog for eb2 and eb3 2010 will clear only if CP stops till atleast june 2021(EO gets extended and DT wins). Again we know numbers can be manipulated, intent of administration and other variables too

[AceMan]

Does this factor in Consular processing cases as well or are these only AOS?

I don’t think CP will have a big demand for 2021. India is still a covid hotspot and the consulates opening up for Jan 2021 is far fetched for now. Most probably only after April 2021. Even then I don’t foresee a huge line waiting to rush into America. The number will be insignificant relative to the spill over we are expecting.

When we hav winky 3000 visas available 1000 CP cases is significant. However if we have 30,000 visas available, even 2000 cp’s also means around 5% to have an impact in the forward movement.

I am visualizing a 3-4 months movement for the first quarter of 2021 for both 2 and 3.

[vedu]

In the absence of any legislation to fix this mess, what is "BAD" is actually "GOOD", and what is "GOOD" is actually "BAD" for applicants who are in the country and waiting in line for a decade. But people don't seem to get it!

[jimmys]

I don’t think CP will have a big demand for 2021. India is still a covid hotspot and the consulates opening up for Jan 2021 is far fetched for now. Most probably only after April 2021. Even then I don’t foresee a huge line waiting to rush into America. The number will be insignificant relative to the spill over we are expecting.

When we hav winky 3000 visas available 1000 CP cases is significant. However if we have 30,000 visas available, even 2000 cp’s also means around 5% to have an impact in the forward movement.

I am visualizing a 3-4 months movement for the first quarter of 2021 for both 2 and 3.

There are more than a few retrogressed categories in EB-3. I don't think EB-3 India can avail all the available SO.

[idliman]

In the absence of any legislation to fix this mess, what is "BAD" is actually "GOOD", and what is "GOOD" is actually "BAD" for applicants who are in the country and waiting in line for a decade. But people don't seem to get it!

I can cite a few examples.

1. When the "DF" concept was introduced, everyone (including me) praised BO admin. But this GOOD actually was BAD for backlogged folks.
2. COVID effectively stopped the functioning of consulates and reduced FB immigration. This BAD is GOOD for EB.
3. Everyone rejoiced that there is great SO because of above. However this GOOD is offset by trump admin's BAD, which allows the wastage of Visas.

Everything is a wash at the end of the day. Do you have anything else in mind?

[vedu]

[*]Everyone rejoiced that there is great SO because of above. However this GOOD is offset by trump admin's BAD, which allows the wastage of Visas.[/LIST]

When COVID hit, we were already 6 months into the current year, so the demand wasn't gonna disappear suddenly considering that there are always enough application under processing. I am willing to wait for a couple of more visa bulletins to finally see the effect! But I agree...we have been disappointed so many times in the past, so everything seems a wash at the end of the day. This time may be different, but let's not jinx it.

[android09]

I can cite a few examples.

1. When the "DF" concept was introduced, everyone (including me) praised BO admin. But this GOOD actually was BAD for backlogged folks.
2. COVID effectively stopped the functioning of consulates and reduced FB immigration. This BAD is GOOD for EB.
3. Everyone rejoiced that there is great SO because of above. However this GOOD is offset by trump admin's BAD, which allows the wastage of Visas.

Everything is a wash at the end of the day. Do you have anything else in mind?

Whether or not one gets a green card, the process surely ensures everyone becomes a philosopher. This was really deep @idliman

[H1b2006]

even EAD/Advanced Parole helps. i want to do some side hustles after getting EAD/AP, right now h1b is too restrictive.

[AceMan]

There are more than a few retrogressed categories in EB-3. I don't think EB-3 India can avail all the available SO.

I would think EB3-ROW would either be current or start with April 20, in the October bulletin. The regular numbers for 2021 by itself would be good to clear EB3-ROW including Philippines. For all practical purpose I am counting EB2 and 3 India as single entity and 30,000 spillover is for both in my previous calculation.

Eb1 India applicants beyond March 2018 is literally less than half of what has applied before. EB1-ROW current as well. Those will give a head start to EB1 India and China for dates around Mid 2019 in OCt bulletin

[longwaitgigu]

The lawyers have filed lawsuit challenging the EO both april 22 and june 22, diversity lottery
It will be disappointing for AOS
if lawyers win - CP will start, FB will play a role
I hope lawsuit is blocked and EO continues

[vedu]

The lawyers have filed lawsuit challenging the EO both april 22 and june 22, diversity lottery
It will be disappointing for AOS
if lawyers win - CP will start, FB will play a role
I hope lawsuit is blocked and EO continues

This "GOOD" is definitely "BAD".

[NJMavarick]

The lawyers have filed lawsuit challenging the EO both april 22 and june 22, diversity lottery
It will be disappointing for AOS
if lawyers win - CP will start, FB will play a role
I hope lawsuit is blocked and EO continues

Its not going to be possible to consume 100K+ visas in a month even if the Consulates were to open...SO is inevitable but can the visas be wasted? Absolutely...~120K total visas will be added to EB if all goes well. I estimate ~70K visas (incl Spillover) for EB2/3I for next year.

[vedu]

Its not going to be possible to consume 100K+ visas in a month even if the Consulates were to open...SO is inevitable but can the visas be wasted? Absolutely...~120K total visas will be added to EB if all goes well. I estimate ~70K visas (incl Spillover) for EB2/3I for next year.

What you are saying is TRUE and will help people with PDs in 2009, 2010, and maybe even 2011. But people with PDs in 2012 and after, every single thing matters. Before the last recession, waiting time was 5-6 years. Some people got lucky in last recession, and others got stuck in for 10 years. Once again, some people will now get lucky and get out this time, and the rest of them will get stuck...who knows...next it will be 15 years waiting period!

[NJMavarick]

What you are saying is TRUE and will help people with PDs in 2009, 2010, and maybe even 2011. But people with PDs in 2012 and after, every single thing matters. Before the last recession, waiting time was 5-6 years. Some people got lucky in last recession, and others got stuck in for 10 years. Once again, some people will now get lucky and get out this time, and the rest of them will get stuck...who knows...next it will be 15 years waiting period!

Hopefully, JB is able to bring about some reform. Given the amount of visas available for next year, FAD can easily each Q3/4 2011. Visas have been wasted this year and they will be next year as well.

FAD will only move by a few months or maybe less in October Bulletin based on the bare minimum allocation of 5K for both EB2 / EB3. I think DOS needs to be inform USCIS in writing about the SO number before the dates can be moved IMO. I would think Nov / December bulletin is what we need to watch out for.

This is considering USCIS funding bill is passed in September alongwith the Stimulus bill otherwise...we are in for disappointment...

[longwaitgigu]

The spillover will be available until and unless law passes through Congress before September 30- which is least possibility
That's not my concern
Its CP processing which will bring halt to eb3I and again CO will move conservatively and AOS will be stuck for eb3 specifically
Now the argument will be consulates won't open soon for ROW and not able to consume all numbers then they r wasted
So per IMO EO needs to stay put till atleast end of this year for people in eb2 and eb3 end of 2010 to atleast get an ead

[vedu]

Hopefully, JB is able to bring about some reform. Given the amount of visas available for next year, FAD can easily each Q3/4 2011. Visas have been wasted this year and they will be next year as well.

FAD will only move by a few months or maybe less in October Bulletin based on the bare minimum allocation of 5K for both EB2 / EB3. I think DOS needs to be inform USCIS in writing about the SO number before the dates can be moved IMO. I would think Nov / December bulletin is what we need to watch out for.

This is considering USCIS funding bill is passed in September alongwith the Stimulus bill otherwise...we are in for disappointment...

Yes, some visas will be wasted due to sheer laziness of a government agency. This is unfortunately how all government agencies operate. I got to experience that first hand when I visited local DMV recently. That is beyond our control, but what we can do is to focus on what we can control. For example, everybody should keep their papers ready and respond to their RFEs ASAP without wasting any time. That will not only help their case, but will also help people waiting after them.

Regarding USCIS furlough, that is a political spectacle. So, don't pay attention to all that noise. In the worst case scenario, there will be a furlough of 8-10 days, and then the congress will be FORCED to act. USCIS is too important of an agency to be closed for months. That is never going to happen.

Regarding new reforms, I have closely watched all prior reform attempts (one during President Bush and one during President Obama), and also S.386, and stupidly believed after listening to those passionate speeches by the senators on both sides, that it was going to happen back then. The only thing I can say now is, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!" So, take it now what you get and hopefully we can make the most of it.