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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #6951
    Quote Originally Posted by alpha0 View Post
    Who knows? This prediction game is meaningless. If we go by USCIS logic, filing date was something which will be final action date in next 8-12 months. They put 1 Jul 2009 as filing date for Eb2 India in Oct 2015 bulletin, 5 yrs have gone and the final action date reached that date now.

    I just realized i came to US before M S Dhoni started playing international cricket and i am still waiting for my GC even after he reitred after a long and successful career, isn't that ridiculous?
    You can thank he did not have the longevity of Tendulkar which was nearly 24 years!!!!

  2. #6952
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    You can thank he did not have the longevity of Tendulkar which was nearly 24 years!!!!
    They both retired at almost the same age. Tendulkar simply had very early start at 16.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  3. #6953
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    They both retired at almost the same age. Tendulkar simply had very early start at 16.
    39 would be a good age to get the GC. Lot of these long timers in the GC queue should be from the same decade as Tendulkars.

    So coming back to predictions, where are we with numbers? Spillover or no spillover? Furlough or no furloughs?

    Eb2 over the last 24 months moved 104 days !!! If we factor in weekends and holidays it moved 80 days in 2 years.

    Why do I care of Eb2 when I am Eb3? Because any time Eb3 move forward, enterprising people downgrade and pushes Eb3 back.

    Do we get a good long filing date for both categories? Let’s see after a month what October bulletin can offer us.

  4. #6954
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    39 would be a good age to get the GC. Lot of these long timers in the GC queue should be from the same decade as Tendulkars.

    So coming back to predictions, where are we with numbers? Spillover or no spillover? Furlough or no furloughs?

    Eb2 over the last 24 months moved 104 days !!! If we factor in weekends and holidays it moved 80 days in 2 years.

    Why do I care of Eb2 when I am Eb3? Because any time Eb3 move forward, enterprising people downgrade and pushes Eb3 back.

    Do we get a good long filing date for both categories? Let’s see after a month what October bulletin can offer us.
    I have been waiting for the 'next visa bulletin to offer something' for the past 5 years.

  5. #6955
    Trackitt approvals for August is back to pre-covid levels. In the last 20 days, 113 I-485 approvals. In June 2020, for the entire month, it was only 36.

    But, almost all the approvals are EB1.

  6. #6956
    Freshman
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    Finally !! Got my card in hand after 11 years, 2 months and 29 days.

    EB2-I PD May 22, 2009.

    All the best to everyone waiting.

    This forum has been very helpful and helped me keep my sanity.

    Thank you to each one for your input and sharing ur journey.

  7. #6957
    Quote Originally Posted by lville View Post
    Finally !! Got my card in hand after 11 years, 2 months and 29 days.

    EB2-I PD May 22, 2009.

    All the best to everyone waiting.

    This forum has been very helpful and helped me keep my sanity.

    Thank you to each one for your input and sharing ur journey.
    Congratulations!!

    Just amazing how this shitty system works... my best friend had a PD of April 22, 2009, he got his GC in 2015 and just became a citizen.

  8. #6958
    Yoda
    Join Date
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    Congrats, lville!

  9. #6959
    Quote Originally Posted by lville View Post
    Finally !! Got my card in hand after 11 years, 2 months and 29 days. EB2-I PD May 22, 2009.
    Congratulations lville. I am happy to hear forum members getting greened.

    Now a humble request to all of those people standing in Q before me. Please get your GC fast and make way for others. LOL!

  10. #6960
    Quote Originally Posted by lville View Post
    Finally !! Got my card in hand after 11 years, 2 months and 29 days.

    EB2-I PD May 22, 2009.

    All the best to everyone waiting.

    This forum has been very helpful and helped me keep my sanity.

    Thank you to each one for your input and sharing ur journey.
    Congratulations!! Iville
    Could be a big relief. Once celebrations are done put the freedom and additional energy for a better use and fly high.

  11. #6961
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    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    Congratulations!! Iville
    Could be a big relief. Once celebrations are done put the freedom and additional energy for a better use and fly high.
    Thanks! Already working on $10 million project. Will lead to 15 jobs and solid returns for my investors.

  12. #6962
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    Can two employers file I485 for one employee... what happens if one employer GC is approved and got GC .. will other one automatically denied

  13. #6963
    Quote Originally Posted by srinivas20 View Post
    Can two employers file I485 for one employee... what happens if one employer GC is approved and got GC .. will other one automatically denied
    AOS is for future employment and there is no rule that stops filing more than one I-485 for the same applicant. In some cases like porting existing underlying AOS which is already filed there are rules to file multiple AOS.
    However, an applicant can adjust his or her status based only on one I-485 application so any additional applications automatically gets cancelled.

  14. #6964
    Quote Originally Posted by srinivas20 View Post
    Can two employers file I485 for one employee... what happens if one employer GC is approved and got GC .. will other one automatically denied
    I am not an attorney. So please DYOR.

    Employees can have multiple H1-B's at the same time. So they can have multiple I-140's also. I have never heard about this, which makes me think it may not be possible. I think you can file two I-485 applications based on two separate I-140s. 1) However, all of these are tied by a single A#, so don't know if there are checks to prevent and reject that while under adjudication. 2) If there is an RFE, I guess both employers can provide I-485J as they are for future employment.

    I don't think rejection of one I-485 and approval of another I-485 will be a problem as long as the rejection is after the approval of first application. Ten years ago, it was very common for I-485s getting approved and I-765/I-131 that were concurrently filed being denied. What's the use of I-765, when you already have I-485 right?

  15. #6965
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    Thank you very much

    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    I am not an attorney. So please DYOR.
    Employees can have multiple H1-B's at the same time. So they can have multiple I-140's also. I have never heard about this, which makes me think it may not be possible. I think you can file two I-485 applications based on two separate I-140s. 1) However, all of these are tied by a single A#, so don't know if there are checks to prevent and reject that while under adjudication. 2) If there is an RFE, I guess both employers can provide I-485J as they are for future employment.

    I don't think rejection of one I-485 and approval of another I-485 will be a problem as long as the rejection is after the approval of first application. Ten years ago, it was very common for I-485s getting approved and I-765/I-131 that were concurrently filed being denied. What's the use of I-765, when you already have I-485 right?

  16. #6966
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    Thank you .. this helps

    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    AOS is for future employment and there is no rule that stops filing more than one I-485 for the same applicant. In some cases like porting existing underlying AOS which is already filed there are rules to file multiple AOS.
    However, an applicant can adjust his or her status based only on one I-485 application so any additional applications automatically gets cancelled.

  17. #6967
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    39 would be a good age to get the GC. Lot of these long timers in the GC queue should be from the same decade as Tendulkars.

    So coming back to predictions, where are we with numbers? Spillover or no spillover? Furlough or no furloughs?

    Eb2 over the last 24 months moved 104 days !!! If we factor in weekends and holidays it moved 80 days in 2 years.

    Why do I care of Eb2 when I am Eb3? Because any time Eb3 move forward, enterprising people downgrade and pushes Eb3 back.

    Do we get a good long filing date for both categories? Let’s see after a month what October bulletin can offer us.

    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    They don't plan to use filing date anymore for this FY is what I am sensing. If we end up this FY with 1st May 2010 for EB3, I expect them to set the filing date to 1st April 2011 for October 2019. Philippines movement is the key for EB3 I to get beyond the current limit.


    You made this statement about 20 months ago in this forum but your date is not current for filing yet. And, there's no guarantee it will be current for filing in Oct 2020 as well. What I meant to say is, it's very hard to predict when some PDs going to be current for filing let alone getting approved. With given current government's animosity towards immigration, it's almost impossible to say when someone's going to be current.

    Good luck to you for the FY 2021

  18. #6968
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    You made this statement about 20 months ago in this forum but your date is not current for filing yet. And, there's no guarantee it will be current for filing in Oct 2020 as well. What I meant to say is, it's very hard to predict when some PDs going to be current for filing let alone getting approved. With given current government's animosity towards immigration, it's almost impossible to say when someone's going to be current.

    Good luck to you for the FY 2021
    I think you missed one of my recent post where I acknowledged that all my past predictions were crap.

  19. #6969
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    That's understatement of the decade on this site at least. I haven't seen anybody come close to Spec in terms of details he can provide. Bow to Spec!
    I would concur, been a long time follower in the forum. Bow to Spec for the clarity he brings to the frankenstein rules (looks like one ) & the numbers game.

  20. #6970
    Sensei
    Join Date
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    just another 1 bulletin to decide our fate, whether we can get GC in 10yrs or 1-2yrs.

  21. #6971
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    You made this statement about 20 months ago in this forum but your date is not current for filing yet. And, there's no guarantee it will be current for filing in Oct 2020 as well. What I meant to say is, it's very hard to predict when some PDs going to be current for filing let alone getting approved. With given current government's animosity towards immigration, it's almost impossible to say when someone's going to be current.

    Good luck to you for the FY 2021

    I don't think there is anyone who can predict things like corona virus, or increased eb1 usage or the next recession. Especially with the fact that USCIS stopped publishing inventory numbers.

    As Q mentioned there is a cone of probability. And these events make the cone wider.

  22. #6972
    Quote Originally Posted by H1b2006 View Post
    just another 1 bulletin to decide our fate, whether we can get GC in 10yrs or 1-2yrs.
    True! If it is a bust, then continue to put FULL BLAME on the current administration, but if it is boom, then the FULL CREDIT should also go to them! Fair enough...right? And it is all about the filing dates at first...and then the Final Action dates will follow throughout the year!

  23. #6973
    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    True! If it is a bust, then continue to put FULL BLAME on the current administration, but if it is boom, then the FULL CREDIT should also go to them! Fair enough...right? And it is all about the filing dates at first...and then the Final Action dates will follow throughout the year!
    Why would someone get credit for doing their job?
    These agencies should be governed but not influenced by political parties for their benefit. That is what causing the artificial funneling of the visa numbers.
    I would not count on anything at this time because when everything was okay the DFF published didn't had any rationale everything was a guess work by the agencies who had all the metrics needed (Even they could use some from Spec's post) or influenced numbers and dates.

    Dates for Filing Sep-18 Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20
    EB1 -India C 1-Oct-17 1-Oct-17 15-Mar-17 1-Jul-18 ??
    EB2 -India 22-May-09 22-May-09 1-Jun-09 1-Jul-09 15-Aug-09 ??
    EB3 -India 1-May-09 1-Oct-09 1-Apr-10 1-Feb-10 1-Feb-10 ??

  24. #6974
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    Why would someone get credit for doing their job?
    These agencies should be governed but not influenced by political parties for their benefit. That is what causing the artificial funneling of the visa numbers.
    I would not count on anything at this time because when everything was okay the DFF published didn't had any rationale everything was a guess work by the agencies who had all the metrics needed (Even they could use some from Spec's post) or influenced numbers and dates.

    Dates for Filing Sep-18 Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20
    EB2 -India 22-May-09 22-May-09 1-Jun-09 1-Jul-09 15-Aug-09 ??
    EB3 -India 1-May-09 1-Oct-09 1-Apr-10 1-Feb-10 1-Feb-10 ??
    Okay, I will change my sentence, "If it is a bust, then BLAME the current admin, but if it's boom, then DON'T BLAME the current admin for that end result!" Fair enough now?

    Please include EB1-India in your table. That will provide a holistic perspective! The dates can look erratic, but only fair question to ask is "Did they use full annual quota during the last three years under current admin?" I don't have that data, but anybody on the forum who has it, please provide it. If they did use the full quota, then they did their job. If not, then the BLAME should definitely go to whoever wasted those visas.

    We don't have definite data for this year yet, so all we are doing is speculating on the visa wastage numbers. But, IF and ONLY IF it turns out that they used full 156,253 visas or close to this number this year, then we have to BLAME ourselves, and not others for our miseries. Here is a recent example: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...6ZjIqJjhN.html

    I am sure lot of such abuse is going on in both H1b visas and GC applications! No wonder we have to rot forever in this waiting line!

  25. #6975
    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    Okay, I will change my sentence, "If it is a bust, then BLAME the current admin, but if it's boom, then DON'T BLAME the current admin for that end result!" Fair enough now?

    Please include EB1-India in your table. That will provide a holistic perspective! The dates can look erratic, but only fair question to ask is "Did they use full annual quota during the last three years under current admin?" I don't have that data, but anybody on the forum who has it, please provide it. If they did use the full quota, then they did their job. If not, then the BLAME should definitely go to whoever wasted those visas.

    We don't have definite data for this year yet, so all we are doing is speculating on the visa wastage numbers. But, IF and ONLY IF it turns out that they used full 156,253 visas or close to this number this year, then we have to BLAME ourselves, and not others for our miseries. Here is a recent example: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...6ZjIqJjhN.html

    I am sure lot of such abuse is going on in both H1b visas and GC applications! No wonder we have to rot forever in this waiting line!
    No disrespect to what you mentioned earlier, I understand your intention. I meant a thank you would be enough for someone doing their job!
    I agree with you on the annual quota and also another important thing "fair usage of spill over" that has not been done from past few years.

    Until the broken system is fixed nothing is going to happen. Currently there are more forces, power and money lobbying against fixing it for their political and financial benefits.
    Thanks for the feedback updated EB1 in the grid.

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