So does this mean USCIS used 16K of the spillover 25K and were unable to use the last 9K?Originally Posted by Spectator
So does this mean USCIS used 16K of the spillover 25K and were unable to use the last 9K?
The FY ends on September 30, 2020.
CO can not carry FY2020 unused EB visas over to EB in FY2021 without a change in the law.
Whether FB could benefit from unused EB visas depends on the calculation of 480,000 minus IR visas issued in FY2020.
Usually, IR approvals are around 450-500k so the minimum figure of 226k for FB is a certainty.
If IR approvals in FY2020 are unusually low due to COVID-19, there's a possibility that 480k minus IR approvals plus unused EB visas could result in a figure higher than 226k for the FB allocation in FY2021.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Higher than 226k- do u mean for oct 2020( EB quota 2021). Is there any chance of getting IR spillover to EB or just whatever remains from 226k.
And again is there a possibility ( my pessimistic view) that CO and USCIS waits for dates of filing to move conservatively as they expect huge demand when consulates reopen and EO becomes ineffective start jan 2021
I am amazed that DoS chooses to cede ground to USCIS on an issue where they don't need to. Visa numbers are controlled by DOS it shouldn't need USCIS advice on availability of numbers.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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DOS need figures from DHS that DHS control.
the number of aliens who were paroled into the United States under section 1182(d)(5) of this title in the second preceding fiscal year-
(A) who did not depart from the United States (without advance parole) within 365 days; and
(B) who (i) did not acquire the status of aliens lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence in the two preceding fiscal years, or (ii) acquired such status in such years under a provision of law (other than subsection (b)) which exempts such adjustment from the numerical limitation on the worldwide level of immigration under this section.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
So in layman term, what does Sep bulletin tells about the future, or do we have to wait for Oct bulletin now to make any sense how 2021 will play with us
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EB2-I PD -> 19-Oct-2009 | EAD/AP since -> 30-Apr-2012 | GC -> 08-APR-2021
I don't understand what you are trying to say.
I think you need to research how the law proscribes the calculation of the FB & EB annual numerical limits. INA 201 (8 U.S.C. 1151) Worldwide level of immigration.
There's some information earlier in this thread.
As the law currently stands, EB loses any unused visas for the FY. The same is true of FB.
In the next FY any unused FB visas in the previous year are added to the EB limit.
If EB loses 25k in FY2020, they are likely to get 100k+ extra visas in FY2021 due to unused FB visas in FY2020.
FB would have the 25k added into their calculation, but might not see any increase above the 226k minimum limit.
If we hadn't had the problems this year, then the 25k may not have been wasted, but then neither would the 100k+ FB visas.
If Congress pass a law to temporarily allow EB to retain wasted EB visa and FB to temporarily retain wasted FB visas, then EB would benefit from 25k extra visa in FY2021. FB would benefit from 100k+ extra visas in FY2021.
You can have jam today, or jam tomorrow, but you can't have jam on both days.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Hi Spec - How much does CP depend on USCIS - fully, to some extent or not at all? (I am trying to see impact of potential furloughs on when CPs may begin)
Wow ...thanks. Talk about intricacies and complexities.
Dont you think such small kinks quite effectively chip away DoS' power? Its a rhetorical question anyway ... you don't have to answer.
Thanks for the great insight.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thankyou for your reply
Just one more clarification
Your post
they are likely to get 100k+ extra visas in FY2021 due to unused FB visas in FY2020.
Correction 140k ( annual limit for EB ) + extra visas in FY 2021 due to unused FB visas in FY 2020
I dont understand where 100k comes from or is 140k?
FB seems likely to under use their 226k allocation in FY2020 by 100k+ (or at least that is what people are saying).
If that were the case, in FY2021 EB allocation would be 140k + 100k+ = 240k+. That assumes Congress does not amend the law.
You said that EB might under use their FY2020 allocation by 25k.
In that case, the FB allocation would be 480k - IR approvals in FY2020 - some parolees + 25k.
If that calculation comes to less than 226k, then the FB allocation would be set at the minimum 226k.
I hope that makes it clear.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I can't say I'm any great expert on the Consular process.
I don't think DHS has any influence on the process at the consulates (medical, interview, visa issuance).
DOS is reliant on USCIS to forward approved petitions to NVC where the applicant has chosen CP (I-130, I-140, I-360, I-526 etc).
NVC (under DOS) can then process the petitions and ask applicants for information once the Filing Date becomes current.
Not relevant, but I suppose DHS get involved again when the immigrant lands and a GC needs to be sent to them. They should get an I-551 stamp in their passport valid for a year anyway.
As I say - not really an expert.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thankyou for clarifying
So can we expect movement of filing dates to atleast end of 2010 from oct 2020( if 240k materializes) for eb2 and eb3? Or they wait to use till last quarter of 2021.
Is it pessimistic predictable that CO might have conservative movement till December ( as Consulate reopens and demand increases, EO ineffective)?
I am not sure why you are hyper focused on Consulate re-openings. CP cases in a normal year make up around 25K of the total 140K. The Major questions would be i) Will 100K spillover be processed as per the law next year and ii) How is USCIS layoffs going to affect case processing. If there is an intent to process 100K spillover number, then I do NOT think CO will be conservative as USCIS has to manage the case load. It is not realistic for them to process 110K visas in the first 3 quarters and then the process the rest 130K in the last quarter.
CP numbers usage depends on approval of I-140,etc petitions from USCIS. The furloughs may affect overall I-140,etc petitions approvals. But, there will be a lot of pent up demand for CP i.e. people who already have their I-140s,etc approved, when the consulates reopen. And, the pent up demand will run for several months if not many.
Meanwhile, while the consulates were closed in 2020, the USCIS has been operational to some extent. They would have approved a lot of CP I-140s,I-130s etc in the last 6 months as well. The USCIS furloughs are expected to be minimum of 30 days. And, if that's the case, they comeback on Oct 1,2020 then USCIS will resume I-140 approvals. Overall I-140,etc approvals for CP may not suffer great deal.
If the consulates stay open starting Jan 2021, then FB may use 75-80%(or more) of their annual numbers for FY 21.
Why I am hyper focused
Coz once EO becomes ineffective and consulate opens, I do not see horizontal spillover from ROW coming to India and china in huge amounts in last quarter as EB3 ROW and india also uses majority of chunck through CP, which makes 250k EB GC a waste for AOS.
i) 100k spillover should materialize per INA law as heroes act ( which is never going to make it) and house bill- which never got introduced to stop the spillover
2) uscis is going in surplus per senator and I hope opening dates of filling in October will increase revenue as fees increases too which further should prevent furlough
Makes sense. Won't that pent up demand be much much slower to fulfill compared to the normal due to very high number of interview requests at the consulates (all backlogged / waiting H-1Bs, B1's, B2's, and so on...)
remember as someone said earlier - this furlough is a political issue not a financial issue.
With the current economic climate the EB applications will come down as evidenced in previous downturns. So there will be a horizontal spillover for all the EB 1/2/3 categories(a good decent number). The real question is the intent from immigration agencies. A few thousand visas were wasted this year and there is nothing to stop that from happening again.
Year 2020 is ending up with a disappointment for EB2I and to EB3I (to a lesser extent). EB1I had a lottery year courtesy of COVID. EB2I had lot of promises, but had an anti-climatic finish (courtesy of the Political appointees & other villains). So what can we expect in the beginning of 2021 (Oct 2020 VB)? With the political appointees are still ruling, what is the minimum movement required by INA for EB2I / EB3I?
From approval trends, almost all of pre-adjudicated cases in NSC should clear (EB2I / EB3I) before October. TSC may end up with about 1000 or less applicants still remaining in pre-adjudicated queue (EB2I / EB3I).
That's understatement of the decade on this site at least. I haven't seen anybody come close to Spec in terms of details he can provide. Bow to Spec!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
The filing dates for both EB2I/EB3I will go very deep in 2010 or beyond in Oct-Dec 2020 quarter. USCIS can collect a lot of fees(updated fees starting October. 50% increase for I-485 AOS.) through filings and will help them to alleviate some financial pressure for FY2021. How much they move their FADs are a different issue altogether but filing dates will move for both categories.
for the worst case i will assume dates will not move in 2020/2021. l will hope atleast by 2022/2023 i can make it.
Feb 2011 eb3
Who knows? This prediction game is meaningless. If we go by USCIS logic, filing date was something which will be final action date in next 8-12 months. They put 1 Jul 2009 as filing date for Eb2 India in Oct 2015 bulletin, 5 yrs have gone and the final action date reached that date now.
I just realized i came to US before M S Dhoni started playing international cricket and i am still waiting for my GC even after he reitred after a long and successful career, isn't that ridiculous?
I came to US before that epic 281 by Laxman and I am still waiting for GC. How about that?
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