EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[srinivas20]

Hello All,

There are good number of Seniors in this group and I am now in a confusing situation. please help

Employer A filed i140 and approved with Sept 2009 EB2 and never filed i485 ( no EAD and AP) waiting for dates to be current ( THIS IS MY EX employer who may help me file i148 when dates are current

(This is my CURRENT EMPLOYER )
Employer B filed PERM in EB3 and waiting for PERM to be approved in a month or two (I know i can port the Sept 2009 Eb2 to this when filling i140) as this is current but might end up waiting for some time to get i140 approved

Looking into all the situation at this point. Please advise best of your knowledge on which route I should go. Emp 1 or Emp2

[srinivas20]

There are good number of Seniors in this group and I am now in a confusing situation.

Employer A filed i140 and approved with Sept 2009 EB2 and never filed i485 ( no EAD and AP) waiting for dates to be current ( THIS IS MY EX employer who may help me file i148 when dates are current

(This is my CURRENT EMPLOYER )
Employer B filed PERM in EB3 and waiting for PERM to be approved in a month or two (I know i can port the Sept 2009 Eb2 to this when filling i140)

Looking into all the situation at this point. Please advise best of your knowledge on which route I should go (Employer A or Employer B)

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If I have to take a wild guess regarding Sep VB,

EB1/2/3 ROW all Current
EB1I - Moved to Aug 2018
EB3I - Moved to Dec 09
EB2I - Left languishing in the gutter

[vsivarama]

EB2I - Left languishing in the gutter

Lol! Maybe CO ought to adopt your language. EB3I: We throw you some crumbs now and then, EB2I: You are royally screwed!!

[kb2013]

My Sept VB guess, EB2I will move by a week, EB3l by a month, accelerating downgrade rat race.

[EB2IndSep09]

We will get to know only when VB is published, and I think SEP VB is not going to be out till last week or earliest by next Friday 21st.

[jimmys]

If I have to take a wild guess regarding Sep VB,

EB1/2/3 ROW all Current
EB1I - Moved to Aug 2018
EB3I - Moved to Dec 09
EB2I - Left languishing in the gutter

If the furloughs are to happen at USCIS by the end of August, I doubt there will be any movement.

[idliman]

If the furloughs are to happen at USCIS by the end of August, I doubt there will be any movement.

Are we looking for the VB to be released by next Friday? DT had promised his merit based EO (that will cover DACA too), lately there is no news on that. If it is still in works, maybe the VB will come only after that. It looks like the FB to EB spillover will happen in October. CO should have great visibility of how many GCs are in play and move the dates.

[EB2IndSep09]

Are we looking for the VB to be released by next Friday? DT had promised his merit based EO (that will cover DACA too), lately there is no news on that. If it is still in works, maybe the VB will come only after that. It looks like the FB to EB spillover will happen in October. CO should have great visibility of how many GCs are in play and move the dates.

At this point in time it is only furlough that is in play for releasing the VB so my earlier guess was based on the historic VB publishing dates and earliest going to be next Friday.

[TB12TB12]

There must be so many EB2I cases that have EADs between July 2009 to 2012 when EB2I became current for short time. Since those cases have been adjudicated already and now only need new medicals & employment letters, it should clear out that EB2I batch pretty fast with SO.


CO should have applied the 25K+ visa numbers that are going to be wasted to this batch of people. I wonder why he did not do that. Dearth of processing capacity is not the sole reason. It would have cleared the backlog till 2010 easily.

[H1b2006]

My Guess EB3I DEC09 --SEPT bulletin
EB3I May10 --OCT Bulletin
EB3I OCT10 --NOV Bulletin
EB3I MAR11--DEC Bulletin

[longwaitgigu]

My Guess EB3I DEC09 --SEPT bulletin
EB3I May10 --OCT Bulletin
EB3I OCT10 --NOV Bulletin
EB3I MAR11--DEC Bulletin

That's way too optimistic prediction for eb3
IMO it's not reaching march 2011 at least till oct 2021

[TB12TB12]

My Guess EB3I DEC09 --SEPT bulletin
EB3I May10 --OCT Bulletin
EB3I OCT10 --NOV Bulletin
EB3I MAR11--DEC Bulletin

EB3 other than India & China is at April 2019. Not many more I-140s would have been approved before pandemic started biting hard. So regular 40K EB3 quota plus 30K from the anticipated 110K SO which we might see from FY21 could push EB3I.


Porting from EB3 to EB2 also started big time from around 2010 timeframe. Many of them got lucky during 2012. Unless EB2 folks start downgrading fast EB3I will move extremely fast. Still March 2011 is very optimistic.

[1312011_eb2I]

What is the logic behind March 2011 specifically? why not JAN 2011 or April 2011 ?

[getsaby]

Please use your psychic powers for EB2-I junta too

[H1b2006]

Just a 5months increment. when spill over is applied it can be anywhere between 3-5months advancement per bulletin without spillover we are seeing 1 month advancement.

[jimmys]

What is the logic behind March 2011 specifically? why not JAN 2011 or April 2011 ?

Since it's just a guesswork, people always try to cover their PDs. A lot of people here do it in the name of predictions.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Please use your psychic powers for EB2-I junta too

Feb 29, 2010

[idliman]

Sept 2020 VB is out. Only EB1-I FA (+21 days) had moved.

[H1b2006]

very bad. hope better luck next bulletin.

[AceMan]

Sept 2020 VB is out. Only EB1-I FA (+21 days) had moved.

Compared to last year's September bulletin, dates did not retrogress. That's a positive !!!

[usvisas]

Yea, that is positive. Reading in trackitt that SR responses received yesterday and today by both EB3I and EB3ROW guys say - "your application is currently pending as the priority date for your immigrant visa number has retrogressed [was not available] and is not available at this time. Therefore your application will be held in abeyance until visa number becomes available"

Wonder how many EB3's they have given so far out of the 44,759 numerical limit for FY2020.

[longwaitgigu]

I have a question for spectator
Can CO used the wasted 25000 GC for October 2020 or he is bind with FB to EB spillover and count as 250k in total ( 25000 goes waste and not given to FB as 226k is annual quota)
Dates of filing is expected to move by November when he gets clarity of all numbers right?

[Spectator]

Yea, that is positive. Reading in trackitt that SR responses received yesterday and today by both EB3I and EB3ROW guys say - "your application is currently pending as the priority date for your immigrant visa number has retrogressed [was not available] and is not available at this time. Therefore your application will be held in abeyance until visa number becomes available"

Wonder how many EB3's they have given so far out of the 44,759 numerical limit for FY2020.

The September 2020 VB announced the official Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit is 156,253 having finally received the required information from USCIS on July 31st.

So, to be very pedantic, the numerical limit for EB1 to EB3 is 44,688.

I'm constantly amazed (or perhaps not) that it takes USCIS so long to provide information to DOS.

[bloddy1]

Compared to last year's September bulletin, dates did not retrogress. That's a positive !!!

Yes you are right but Peanuts and Breadcrumbs for us ...