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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #6876
    Quote Originally Posted by gcvijay View Post
    15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.
    Congrats Mate!

  2. #6877
    Do you think folks who replied in 2018 Medical RFE, specifically EB2 PD between Jul 09 to Dec 09 will get another medical RFE?

    USCIS received my medical on Aug, 15th 2018, my PD EB2-I, 10/19/2009.
    =========================================
    EB2-I PD -> 19-Oct-2009 | EAD/AP since -> 30-Apr-2012 | GC -> 08-APR-2021

  3. #6878
    Quote Originally Posted by getsaby View Post
    Do you think folks who replied in 2018 Medical RFE, specifically EB2 PD between Jul 09 to Dec 09 will get another medical RFE?

    USCIS received my medical on Aug, 15th 2018, my PD EB2-I, 10/19/2009.
    What matters is the doctors signature date and not the received date. Not sure if this date is strictly enforced.

  4. #6879
    Not sure if your impression is correct. I had the impression that USCIS considers medicals valid for 2 years from the date they receive it. Doctor's sig is valid for some time (don't remember exactly - 6 months?) for USCIS to receive it - but once USCIS receives it, the two year clock starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by need4speed View Post
    What matters is the doctors signature date and not the received date. Not sure if this date is strictly enforced.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  5. #6880
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    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Not sure if your impression is correct. I had the impression that USCIS considers medicals valid for 2 years from the date they receive it. Doctor's sig is valid for some time (don't remember exactly - 6 months?) for USCIS to receive it - but once USCIS receives it, the two year clock starts.
    It used to be that the validity was 1 year from USCIS receipt, as long as the Civil Surgeon's signature was not more than a year old.

    Under the new system, the Civil Surgeon's signature must not be more than 60 days old and validity is 2 years from the Civil Surgeon's signature date.

    The full explanation is contained in the USCIS Policy Manual - Volume 8 - Chapter 4

    Here's an excerpt:

    4. Validity Period of Form I-693 (Including Use of Prior Versions)

    Evidentiary Value

    A person seeking an immigration benefit and who is subject to the health-related grounds of inadmissibility must establish that he or she is not inadmissible on health-related grounds. [20] In general, those applying for immigration benefits while in the United States must use Form I-693 to show they are free from any conditions that would render them inadmissible under the health-related grounds.

    An officer may determine that the applicant has met the burden of proof required to establish that he or she is free from a medical condition that would render the applicant inadmissible on health-related grounds if all of the following criteria are met:

    • A USCIS-designated civil surgeon performed the immigration medical examination in accordance with HHS regulations;
    • The civil surgeon and the applicant properly completed the current version of Form I-693;
    • The Form I-693 that the applicant submitted is signed by a civil surgeon no more than 60 days before the date the applicant filed an application for the underlying immigration benefit;
    • The Form I-693 establishes that the applicant does not have a Class A medical condition and has complied with the vaccination requirements or is granted a waiver; and
    • USCIS issues a decision on the underlying immigration benefit application no more than 2 years after the date the civil surgeon signed Form I-693.


    In general, if any one of the above criteria is not met, the applicant has not met the burden of proof required to establish that he or she is free of a medical condition that would render the applicant inadmissible to the United States on health-related grounds. In this case, the officer should follow standard operating procedures regarding issuance of a denial or an RFE or Notice of Intent to Deny (NOID) to address the deficiency.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  6. #6881
    Thanks Spec. As always - you are the last word.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  7. #6882
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    It seems like second coronavirus relief bill has stalled and it had uscis funding budget too. Does it mean uscis will furlough and slow down application process?

  8. #6883
    I came across these "Wait List Reports" for 2019, 2018 and 2017 and trying to understand those numbers that look very high to me. Is this effectively inventory for CP cases.

    EB3I as of NOV 1 2019 = 20,751
    EB3I as of NOV 1 2018 = 21,385
    EB3I as of NOV 1 2017 = 21,962

    EB2I as of NOV 1 2019 = 15,651
    EB2I as of NOV 1 2018 = 13,387
    EB2I as of NOV 1 2017 = 10,961

    The 2019 report is available from the below link; rest just click directly

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...tatistics.html

    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2019.pdf
    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2018.pdf
    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2017.pdf

  9. #6884
    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    It seems like second coronavirus relief bill has stalled and it had uscis funding budget too. Does it mean uscis will furlough and slow down application process?
    Probably not since some official testified to congress that they have a 1.1B surplus.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #6885
    Quote Originally Posted by usvisas View Post
    I came across these "Wait List Reports" for 2019, 2018 and 2017 and trying to understand those numbers that look very high to me. Is this effectively inventory for CP cases.

    EB3I as of NOV 1 2019 = 20,751
    EB3I as of NOV 1 2018 = 21,385
    EB3I as of NOV 1 2017 = 21,962

    EB2I as of NOV 1 2019 = 15,651
    EB2I as of NOV 1 2018 = 13,387
    EB2I as of NOV 1 2017 = 10,961

    The 2019 report is available from the below link; rest just click directly

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...tatistics.html

    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2019.pdf
    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2018.pdf
    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2017.pdf
    India
    EB1 : 1,282
    EB2: 15,651
    EB3: 20,751

    37k is total number Indians waiting for GC here in US and elsewhere?
    with So all the above should be wiped ??

  11. #6886
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    Quote Originally Posted by usvisas View Post
    I came across these "Wait List Reports" for 2019, 2018 and 2017 and trying to understand those numbers that look very high to me. Is this effectively inventory for CP cases.

    EB3I as of NOV 1 2019 = 20,751
    EB3I as of NOV 1 2018 = 21,385
    EB3I as of NOV 1 2017 = 21,962

    EB2I as of NOV 1 2019 = 15,651
    EB2I as of NOV 1 2018 = 13,387
    EB2I as of NOV 1 2017 = 10,961

    The 2019 report is available from the below link; rest just click directly

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...tatistics.html

    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2019.pdf
    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2018.pdf
    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2017.pdf
    Yes, this is the number of cases at NVC waiting for Consular Processing.

    The I-140 would have specified CP, or the beneficiary specified it later and asked USCIS to transfer the I-140.

    The number includes any dependents that were mentioned in the I-140 petition.

    Remember that these numbers include all PD that NVC have received in time to prepare the report, not those that are current in the VB.

    So, the 15,651 figure for EB2-I covers c. 10 PD years of I-140 petitions received by NVC. That averages to just over 1,500 per PD year which doesn't seem too huge a figure.

    The combined number for EB2-I & EB3-I is c. 36k, including most dependents. Considering PERM approvals for India that cover that period are several hundreds of thousands, it doesn't seem crazy high.

    Given not all CP cases will proceed, I would only treat the numbers as indicative.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  12. #6887
    Thanks Spec. By "not those that are current in the VB", you mean it would include an EB2/3I I-140 CP with PD of 2019 that has never ever been current?

  13. #6888
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Probably not since some official testified to congress that they have a 1.1B surplus.
    We never know for sure. They always find a reason or another to not move the dates. Lets wait and worry about other things that we can control.
    Do enjoy some of the Shayari that Q and couple other old timers have written, worry about how to plan for kids education, life insurance, retirement planning etc.,

    Hamara number aayega - sometime in the future

  14. #6889
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    Quote Originally Posted by usvisas View Post
    Thanks Spec. By "not those that are current in the VB", you mean it would include an EB2/3I I-140 CP with PD of 2019 that has never ever been current?
    Correct.

    It would include any approved I-140 where the applicant had selected Consular Processing.

    In addition, if the applicant chose Consular Processing at a later stage, upon approval of an I-824, USCIS would send the I-140 to NVC.

    The petitions of applicants who will be processed at an overseas post are forwarded by USCIS to the Department of State; applicants in categories subject to numerical limit are registered on the visa waiting list. Each case is assigned a priority (i.e., registration) date based on the filing date accorded to the petition.
    ....
    As such, the following figures ONLY reflect petitions which the Department of State has received, and do not include the significant number of applications held with the USCIS Offices.

    The following figures have been compiled from the NVC report submitted to the Department on November 1, 2019, and show the number of immigrant visa applicants on the waiting list in the various preferences and subcategories subject to numerical limit. All figures reflect persons registered under each respective numerical limitation, i.e., the totals represent not only principal applicants or petition beneficiaries, but their spouses and children entitled to derivative status under INA 203(d) as well.
    where "petition" for EB1 - EB3 refers to an I-140. It would be I360 for EB4 and I526 for EB5.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  15. #6890
    Got it Guru Spec!

  16. #6891
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    any guesses on how much EB3 and EB2 I will move in the next bulletin ?

  17. #6892
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    Quote Originally Posted by rabp77 View Post
    any guesses on how much EB3 and EB2 I will move in the next bulletin ?

    Not much. An educated guess based on the furlough news below.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...hs/3344178001/

  18. #6893
    Hi Spec, can you please help me with these two questions:

    1. In the visa bulletins why do we have this group of countries: "EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS" as oversubscribed under EB charts. Going by the annual number of visa's given to them, they are very less than 2800 (7%). Same for Vietnam. EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS - have been in the charts since May 2016 and Vietnam since May 2018. Also, why are these three countries together = EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS?

    2. Not sure if this a silly one, but its not clear to me. In visa statistics page each year, does table V (under EB section which is Part 2) - include both consular and non-consular visas granted AND table VI - provides only the consular numbers?

    Table V is titled:
    Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2019

    Table VI is titled:
    Preference Immigrant Visas Issued (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2019

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2019.html

  19. #6894
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    Replies inline.
    Quote Originally Posted by usvisas View Post
    Hi Spec, can you please help me with these two questions:

    1. In the visa bulletins why do we have this group of countries: "EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS" as oversubscribed under EB charts. Going by the annual number of visa's given to them, they are very less than 2800 (7%). Same for Vietnam. EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS - have been in the charts since May 2016 and Vietnam since May 2018. Also, why are these three countries together = EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS?
    EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS have been separated from ROW because of high use in EB4, primarily due to Juvenile Court Dependent cases aka Unaccompanied Minors. This has necessitated an earlier cut off date in EB4 than for ROW.
    In the May 2016 VB it said:

    E. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND HONDURAS EMPLOYMENT-BASED FOURTH (E4) AND CERTAIN RELIGIOUS WORKERS (SR) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

    There is currently extremely high demand in the E4 and SR categories for applicants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This demand is primarily for Juvenile Court Dependent cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. Pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, this requires implementing E4 and SR Application Final Action Dates for these countries, which will allow the Department to hold worldwide number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2016 annual limits. Any forward movement during the remainder of FY-2016 is unlikely although no specific prediction is possible.

    A determination as to whether these countries will remain subject to E4 and SR final application dates under the FY-2017 annual numerical limitation will be made in early September. Future visa availability will depend on a combination of demand for numbers being reported each month, and the extent to which otherwise unused numbers become available.
    Vietnam has been separated from ROW because of high use in EB5. This has necessitated an earlier cut off date in EB5 than for ROW.
    In the May 2018 VB it said:

    E. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE VIETNAM EMPLOYMENT FIFTH PREFERENCE CATEGORY

    Continued heavy applicant demand will result in the Vietnam Employment Fifth preference (EB-5) category reaching the per-country annual limit during April. As a result it has been necessary to impose a final action date on this preference for the month of May to control number use for the remainder of the fiscal year. It can be expected that the Vietnam Employment Fifth preference category will remain subject to a final action date for the foreseeable future.


    2. Not sure if this a silly one, but its not clear to me. In visa statistics page each year, does table V (under EB section which is Part 2) - include both consular and non-consular visas granted AND table VI - provides only the consular numbers?

    Table V is titled:
    Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2019

    Table VI is titled:
    Preference Immigrant Visas Issued (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2019

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2019.html
    You have that exactly correct.

    Table V has all visas used, whether from AOS or CP.

    Table VI only shows only CP numbers.

    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  20. #6895
    Thank you again Guru Spec!

  21. #6896
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Replies inline.
    Why are unaccompanied children counted in EB4?

  22. #6897
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    again what shall we infer, for SEPT,OCT,NOV,DEC Visa bulletins?

    feb 2011 pd.

    when shall VO reopen the dates to build inventory for eb3i

  23. #6898
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Why are unaccompanied children counted in EB4?
    https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the...rant-juveniles

    Petition and Application Processing

    If an immigrant visa is immediately available, you may generally file your Form I-360 and Form I-485 at the same time. Immigrant visas for SIJs come from the employment-based fourth preference (EB-4) immigrant visa category for special immigrants. For more information on immigrant visa availability, go to our Visa Availability and Priority Dates page.

  24. #6899
    Quote Originally Posted by H1b2006 View Post
    again what shall we infer, for SEPT,OCT,NOV,DEC Visa bulletins?

    feb 2011 pd.

    when shall VO reopen the dates to build inventory for eb3i
    Many have gotten themselves into quite a predicament inferring the dates movement and that is not going to stop people like me .
    Based on the past 6 months data, CO is very conservatively moving dates however, SEP bulletin is going to reveal some insight into whether he expects any SO and if any would he like to put them into use.
    OCT bulletin is going to be the deal breaker where the DFF and FAD should get close (For both EB3I and EB2I) that is going to drive the inventory build up in subsequent bulletins.

    Here comes the real challenge.
    USCIS might not honor the DFF even if CO moves because the org is okay to furlough their own but not take any new applications even in this dire situation.
    However they might not be able to do this for longer time as 97% of the organization's funding comes from Fees. So gates have to be opened at some point in time so hang in there.

  25. #6900
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    Many have gotten themselves into quite a predicament inferring the dates movement and that is not going to stop people like me .
    Based on the past 6 months data, CO is very conservatively moving dates however, SEP bulletin is going to reveal some insight into whether he expects any SO and if any would he like to put them into use.
    OCT bulletin is going to be the deal breaker where the DFF and FAD should get close (For both EB3I and EB2I) that is going to drive the inventory build up in subsequent bulletins.

    Here comes the real challenge.
    USCIS might not honor the DFF even if CO moves because the org is okay to furlough their own but not take any new applications even in this dire situation.
    However they might not be able to do this for longer time as 97% of the organization's funding comes from Fees. So gates have to be opened at some point in time so hang in there.
    This is obviously a pattern with this Admin:

    Wreck the EPA from inside out: loosen regulations
    Wreck the Dept of Edu: Push charter schools
    Wreck the USCIS/DoS: Reduce immigration
    Wreck USPS: Restrict mail-in ballots....

    the list goes on.

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