EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jimmys]

So... this morning i got this email alert. I had filed my 485 in 2015 and had no updates ever since. I am current since july. Now I get an alert that some "notice" is undelivered. Does anyone have any idea what this means? Is this RFE? The status shows initial review and i am confused. If I go the website to request for a copy of the notice, i am not sure what i should pick as option. They have appointment,RFE and other etc., Any insights appreciated.

Application Type: I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Initial Review

On August 4, 2020, the Post Office returned a notice we sent you for your Form I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR ADJUST STATUS, Receipt Number SRC1690004914, because they could not deliver it. This could have a serious effect on your case. Please go to www.uscis.gov/e-request to request a copy of the notice immediately. If you move, go to www.uscis.gov/addresschange to give us your new mailing address.

Is your current address on file with USCIS?

[AceMan]

Wow. Made me laugh!
My recommendation was based on experience. Someone used my home as temporary address in between moving from Job A to Job B (different states). The first six characters of last name matched. When they redirected mail after settling in Job B, all my mails went to a different state. Credit card notice redirection meant, credit reports were automatically updated to show that I am now in a different state. It was through credit alert that I noticed this. That one week also coincided with USCIS receipt notices. I had to ask USCIS to resend receipt notices. USPS tried to recall mail, but did not work. It was a mess. It made me realize the importance of post man / woman for people in our situation. So be nice people.

I understood your intent, in fact I had a situation last year when I forgot to update AR 11 for my 11 year old son when we bought and moved to a new house and I saw an update for his H4 biometrics with a message where post office could not deliver a document.

It is important for AR 11 update for every non citizen family members.

[gcpursuit]

I can think of two scenarios: 1) Did you move after 2015 and somehow forgot to file AR-11? OR 2) Did someone with same last name stayed with you and relocated to a different address in the last 5 years? Anyway, your RFE (likely) was sent back to USCIS by USPS.

If your address details are correct (meaning latest AR-11 is with USCIS or you have not moved since 2015), then you need to go to the post office and ask them what's wrong. You need to do this part because, you don't want your GC to be sent back to USCIS. The post man / woman have a computer system and they can track and say whats going on. Also signup for free USPS informed delivery service (everyone dealing with USCIS should do this).

It may not hurt to call back USCIS and talk to L2 agent and request them to resend the RFE ASAP.

The faster you send the RFE response, the faster you will get GC. You are almost there. Just get this thing done.

Thank you for your inputs. My address is the same and I have informed delivery also. I had raised a SR last month to get duplicate receipt notice for my I-485 which I never received in 2015. After years of follow up, they sent me a copy this july and I received it also. Apparently, that is the notice they are referring to according to L1 officer and not RFE. The officer didnt find any other status update on my case. I still dont know why it says undelivered when I did receive it. I am wondering if my attorney's address changed ( I dont know if they did ) and they tried to mail them a copy which triggered this status.

Anyways, the L1 officer said she is going to create a SR for "case being outside processing time" and i said ok. Hopefully, there is some movement with the SR.

[usvisas]

Hello forum -

What will be the counts (pending inventory + not applied yet) for EB2I and EB3I between 2009 and end of 2010?

From what I recollect - the last July 2018 inventory had inaccurate data to some extent (not sure of the error %) and EB3I obviously didn't have 2009 and 2010 counts.

Till date max dates that 485 has been applied are 4/30/2010 and 3/31/2010 for EB2I and EB3I respectively.

Give or take - as of today - I am seeing approvals coming meaning visa numbers generated for the month of June 2009 for both.

Going forward - movements for both are dependent on pending numbers in each category - I would think.

[Zenzone]

Hello forum -

What will be the counts (pending inventory + approved I140s) for EB2I and EB3I between 2009 and end of 2010?

From what I recollect - the last July 2018 inventory had inaccurate data to some extent (not sure of the error %) and EB3I obviously didn't have 2009 and 2010 counts.

Till date max dates that 485 has been applied are 4/30/2010 and 3/31/2010 for EB2I and EB3I respectively.

Give or take - as of today - I am seeing approvals coming meaning visa numbers generated for the month of June 2009 for both.

Going forward - movements for both are dependent on pending numbers in each category - I would think.

~ 70-80K give or take.

[usvisas]

cmon Zenzone

[idliman]

Hello forum -

What will be the counts (pending inventory + approved I140s) for EB2I and EB3I between 2009 and end of 2010?

~ 70-80K give or take.

That number is very high and sure to give a heart attack to folks here. As we are playing an educated guessing game (you need to did deep to look at PERM approvals and such), I would say 20K per year for EB2I and 10K per year for EB3I. I don't know what the CP demands are (20% to 30%). Combined total will be 30K for 2010. Another 15K remaining in 2009. So may be 45K+ people are waiting with PDs in 2009 and 2010?

This is a question for number gurus Ace, Whereismygc / Spec, etc.,

[AceMan]

That number is very high and sure to give a heart attack to folks here. As we are playing an educated guessing game (you need to did deep to look at PERM approvals and such), I would say 20K per year for EB2I and 10K per year for EB3I. I don't know what the CP demands are (20% to 30%). Combined total will be 30K for 2010. Another 15K remaining in 2009. So may be 45K+ people are waiting with PDs in 2009 and 2010?

This is a question for number gurus Ace, Whereismygc / Spec, etc.,

My predictions are like Chetan Sharma bowling to Javed Miandad in Sharjah final. Miandad being the CO/USCIS.

Totally bogus, baseless crap is what I call my predictions.

Even earlier I thought Eb2 will move another month, but did not move a single day. Eb3 forward movement without Eb2 is plain disastrous as people are going to downgrade. The lure of faster exit from this GC mess makes people apply for new 140, which completely messes up the calculation for both 2 and 3.

[shaisri]

My predictions are like Chetan Sharma bowling to Javed Miandad in Sharjah final. Miandad being the CO/USCIS.

Totally bogus, baseless crap is what I call my predictions.

Even earlier I thought Eb2 will move another month, but did not move a single day. Eb3 forward movement without Eb2 is plain disastrous as people are going to downgrade. The lure of faster exit from this GC mess makes people apply for new 140, which completely messes up the calculation for both 2 and 3.

We are in EB2 with pd Jan 10 2010. it seems like forecasts show EB3 going past this date over the next couple of months? would it make sense for us to downgrade at this point with EB2 numbers hardly moving?

[qesehmk]

My predictions are like Chetan Sharma bowling to Javed Miandad in Sharjah final. Miandad being the CO/USCIS.

I lost interest in cricket due to that single ball ...... and only started watching again after Sachin came on the scene and beat the ---- out of Abdul Kadir in Pakistan.

[usvisas]

My predictions are like Chetan Sharma bowling to Javed Miandad in Sharjah final. Miandad being the CO/USCIS.

Totally bogus, baseless crap is what I call my predictions.

Even earlier I thought Eb2 will move another month, but did not move a single day. Eb3 forward movement without Eb2 is plain disastrous as people are going to downgrade. The lure of faster exit from this GC mess makes people apply for new 140, which completely messes up the calculation for both 2 and 3.

Sure, dont disagree AceMan. For that reason - just trying to get as accurate numbers as possible. rest would be speculation and its upto the forum individuals.

[EB2IndSep09]

We are in EB2 with pd Jan 10 2010. it seems like forecasts show EB3 going past this date over the next couple of months? would it make sense for us to downgrade at this point with EB2 numbers hardly moving?

If you have not applied AOS and employer supports it makes perfect sense to me to downgrade.

why? My PD is EB2 Sept 2009 as one might figure from my UName
I reached out to my employer's immigration team in 2018 to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 which has been pushed back and also given a free piece of advise that historically EB2 moves faster than EB3.
we are in 2020 (2 years down the line) my PD is current in EB3 and I am yet to file AOS.

[AceMan]

We are in EB2 with pd Jan 10 2010. it seems like forecasts show EB3 going past this date over the next couple of months? would it make sense for us to downgrade at this point with EB2 numbers hardly moving?

Personally I despise downgrading. However if you downgrade you can get GC faster and you have another petition. At the very minimum you can block another person, which should be a big motivation.


You got to do what you have to do to get your GC faster even if it is 10 minutes faster.

[AceMan]

Sure, dont disagree AceMan. For that reason - just trying to get as accurate numbers as possible. rest would be speculation and its upto the forum individuals.

We cannot get accurate predictions anymore if USCIS does not move dates together. People who has been stuck in the queue wanting to downgrade because Eb3 is 3 months faster than Eb2.

Initially the urge to get faster EAD, then it becomes the urge for faster GC, the backlog/interviews all resulting in absolute waste of effort in making any realistic predictions.

[usvisas]

We cannot get accurate predictions anymore if USCIS does not move dates together. People who has been stuck in the queue wanting to downgrade because Eb3 is 3 months faster than Eb2.

Initially the urge to get faster EAD, then it becomes the urge for faster GC, the backlog/interviews all resulting in absolute waste of effort in making any realistic predictions.

Again AceMan - can't agree more with what you said. I am just looking for accurate numbers from Guru's and not predictions. I have looked and been loooking at earlier posts from Spec and others (mentioned below), but can't seem to figure out pending (applied + non-applied) numbers for EB2I and EB3I until mid-2010. I mentioned 2010 end to keep it simple as I could cut it by 50% as I do realize we may not want to drill down too deep.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...tions)/page224
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...d-Calculations

Yourself, Spec, Q and many others have helped a lot sharing facts and opinions!!!!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Again AceMan - can't agree more with what you said. I am just looking for accurate numbers from Guru's and not predictions. I have looked and been loooking at earlier posts from Spec and others (mentioned below), but can't seem to figure out pending (applied + non-applied) numbers for EB2I and EB3I until mid-2010. I mentioned 2010 end to keep it simple as I could cut it by 50% as I do realize we may not want to drill down too deep.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...tions)/page224
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...d-Calculations

Yourself, Spec, Q and many others have helped a lot sharing facts and opinions!!!!

I know it was mentioned a couple of times in the posts before so I will reiterate that: no one has the exact and accurate numbers after they stopped publishing the inventory data after July 2018. This was done deliberately to keep the water as muddled as possible so that there is no accountability and they can simply say, "Oh the demand for that category is high, so we had to hold back the dates" and not have to provide any numbers to back that up. It's that and incompetence as they are not able to reconcile all the upgrades and downgrades that have happened in the past few years. You would think a search by A-number which remains constant would sort that out, but you have to remember you are dealing with numskulls.

[EB2IndSep09]

I know it was mentioned a couple of times in the posts before so I will reiterate that: no one has the exact and accurate numbers after they stopped publishing the inventory data after July 2018. This was done deliberately to keep the water as muddled as possible so that there is no accountability and they can simply say, "Oh the demand for that category is high, so we had to hold back the dates" and not have to provide any numbers to back that up. It's that and incompetence as they are not able to reconcile all the upgrades and downgrades that have happened in the past few years. You would think a search by A-number which remains constant would sort that out, but you have to remember you are dealing with numskulls.

Just to add more context and clarity to this.. TD correct me if I interpreted something wrong
whatever educated guess Q, Spec and others are doing is by using other inventory like PERM approvals, people reporting on other forums and the baseline data last published data.
Here comes the tricky part no one can accurately count how many are net new and how many are upgrades/downgrades.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Just to add more context and clarity to this.. TD correct me if I interpreted something wrong
whatever educated guess Q, Spec and others are doing is by using other inventory like PERM approvals, people reporting on other forums and the baseline data last published data.
Here comes the tricky part no one can accurately count how many are net new and how many are upgrades/downgrades.

Yeah the upgrades/downgrades have really screwed the pooch for EB2-3/I. All the PERM approvals can provide is a number to add to the backlog but it is difficult to calculate who is not in the backlog any longer based on already obtaining the GC through other means or abandoning it all together.

[h1bh1bh1b]

I had upgraded to EB2 but when EB3 DF became current took it and got EAD, now I am current. However EB2 line still be counting me

[EB2IndSep09]

I had upgraded to EB2 but when EB3 DF became current took it and got EAD, now I am current. However EB2 line still be counting me

Exactly these type of situations in thousands is exploited by the two agencies to work against the movement of dates.
This could be addressed by a small fix in the system to keep it a little transparent but they wouldn't do.

[monsieur]

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal

[EB2IndSep09]

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal

I echo with the last statement.
My paralegal at Fragomen said no need of PERM, direct I-140 and no premium processing for I-140. Also as there is risk and cost associated, it has to be approved by the employer which was not approved by my employer.

[shaisri]

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal

Thank you. this response was really helpful

[shaisri]

If you have not applied AOS and employer supports it makes perfect sense to me to downgrade.

why? My PD is EB2 Sept 2009 as one might figure from my UName
I reached out to my employer's immigration team in 2018 to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 which has been pushed back and also given a free piece of advise that historically EB2 moves faster than EB3.
we are in 2020 (2 years down the line) my PD is current in EB3 and I am yet to file AOS.

Thank you for the perspective! appreciate it

[srisri]

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal

I have couple of my colleagues who are mid 2010 and have successfully downported to EB3 without a new perm.

My employer is doing it, my PD is Dec 2009 and my manager approved it but deciding if I should do it?