EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[idliman]

Didn't you read the latest update from CO? Now that he said it, there are more reasons to believe that the full EB quota will be used this year. If that happens, there will be no 25K+ carry-over for the next year. Even if we don't believe CO's words completely, the 25K+ can easily become something like 5/10K in their attempt to use visas this year. It is better to count on FB cross-over visas and pray that they don't get stolen from us.

Also, if you don't believe in CO's words, then you shouldn't also believe in 25K+ carry-over, because that 25K+ number also came from the CO in his previous update. So, don't selectively believe some of his statements, and not believe some of his other statements. Either you believe him OR don't.

Sorry my bad. Thanks for pointing it out. I was in denial mode on the last Check-in with CO where the 25K+ EB visas vanished into thin air. The approval trend does not account for the full usage. Somehow did not register in my brain. So we are back to "hope".

Man, I am looking for something positive here. No matter whichever way I go, you guys keep me tied to the ground.

[gs1968]

This is too much intelligence my friend. Totally unfair. Bow to you. My humble request - please boil it down to 3 line paragraph conclusion. If I am correct, you are saying that the chance such a bill will be passed before USCIS 2021 starts is low. And thus the spillover will happen.

What you do not say is that - once USCIS 2021 starts they will (most likely) not try to undo the spillover. Please confirm/correct me.

Yes-I think the spillover will happen as there is unlikely to be any legislation passed to reverse this before September 30. However the intent to recapture the lost visas for FB is there and would play a role in the DOS thinking. If there is such a legislation passed in early 2021 (second Quarter of FY 2021) then I think the DOS will adjust dates accordingly. I expect them not to front load the additional visas to the EB category as once issued they cannot be reclaimed for FB visas. If the 110000 visas are divided by 12 months there will be 9000 extra numbers per month. I hope there is at least that amount taken into consideration while issuing the visa bulletin

[longwaitgigu]

Correct me if I am wrong
Once the FY starts (2021) and if the SO happens and calculated for the entire year. Is it not illegal to take the SO from third and fourth quarter ( assuming DHS appropriation bill passes and house, senate and WH has changes).
Per my understanding if any bill passes the changes should take place start of FY ( OCT 2021)
So if Mythical SO Happens then DOS is obliged to follow the rules start from oct 2020
I can understand 25k wastage might be ( DOS never assumed EO will be extended to dec 2020)
But now they should not have a choice.

[gs1968]

Correct me if I am wrong
Once the FY starts (2021) and if the SO happens and calculated for the entire year. Is it not illegal to take the SO from third and fourth quarter ( assuming DHS appropriation bill passes and house, senate and WH has changes).
Per my understanding if any bill passes the changes should take place start of FY ( OCT 2021)
So if Mythical SO Happens then DOS is obliged to follow the rules start from oct 2020
I can understand 25k wastage might be ( DOS never assumed EO will be extended to dec 2020)
But now they should not have a choice.

My understanding is that there is no hard and fast rule about how the additional visas are allotted. Maybe Spec or Q can shed light on this. Also the annual numbers are limits/ceilings and not targets. The additional numbers a re available for use but they are not obligated to use all of them if it is not possible to process that number. The HEROES act if I remember correctly amended the INA to distribute the lost FB visa numbers between FY2021 and FY 2022. If the same language is used again then there is no choice but to slow down issuance in the second half so these numbers are available to be transferred

[alpha0]

My bad, Aceman corrected this early in the thread. FB quota is 226k and spillover is based on that and not based on what is not used form 480k.

[qesehmk]

My understanding is that there is no hard and fast rule about how the additional visas are allotted. Maybe Spec or Q can shed light on this. Also the annual numbers are limits/ceilings and not targets. The additional numbers a re available for use but they are not obligated to use all of them if it is not possible to process that number. The HEROES act if I remember correctly amended the INA to distribute the lost FB visa numbers between FY2021 and FY 2022. If the same language is used again then there is no choice but to slow down issuance in the second half so these numbers are available to be transferred

The law is quite clear. The ceilings are as per the specifications 28.6 EB1/2/3 and 7.1 EB4/5. So the entire 250K will be allocated accordingly.

[qesehmk]

Yes-I think the spillover will happen as there is unlikely to be any legislation passed to reverse this before September 30. However the intent to recapture the lost visas for FB is there and would play a role in the DOS thinking. If there is such a legislation passed in early 2021 (second Quarter of FY 2021) then I think the DOS will adjust dates accordingly. I expect them not to front load the additional visas to the EB category as once issued they cannot be reclaimed for FB visas. If the 110000 visas are divided by 12 months there will be 9000 extra numbers per month. I hope there is at least that amount taken into consideration while issuing the visa bulletin

Thanks. You say it quite eloquently that the legislation will not be passed before USCIS 2021 but the intent will remain afterwards.

And that's what makes it tricky. If the intent is there, then my guess is they will not undo spillover to EB. Rather they will allocate more under another version of S386/HR1044 .... and that's how Durbin's wish gets fulfiled. Just a guess BTW. No insider information.

[vsivarama]

The HEROES act if I remember correctly amended the INA to distribute the lost FB visa numbers between FY2021 and FY 2022. If the same language is used again then there is no choice but to slow down issuance in the second half so these numbers are available to be transferred

This is possible in theory. But practicality dictates that, post the start of a fiscal year this would be harder to achieve. I believe this could be amended to use some of the unused VISA numbers like they did a carve out for the medical experts in some other bill. That would make more practical sense then moving the numbers around after the start of the fiscal year.

[gs1968]

The law is quite clear. The ceilings are as per the specifications 28.6 EB1/2/3 and 7.1 EB4/5. So the entire 250K will be allocated accordingly.

I agree. I was referring more to the timeline as to when these would be applied. This is an annual allocation and I don't think there is a monthly/quarterly allocation formula that needs to be followed for distribution of these additional numbers. If as I mentioned an additional 9000 numbers (110000/12) are allotted monthly till the issue is resolved then adjustments can be made later if indeed such a legislation came to pass

[longwaitgigu]

I am still at the same question
If any law to pass to prevent SO, after September 2020 to oct2021 will not that be applicable to FY 2021- OCT?. We can keep aside intent, uscis slowdown, etc on side.
They have to do quarterly calculation out of 250k and cant deny allocating them as per the legislation

[gs1968]

This is possible in theory. But practicality dictates that, post the start of a fiscal year this would be harder to achieve. I believe this could be amended to use some of the unused VISA numbers like they did a carve out for the medical experts in some other bill. That would make more practical sense then moving the numbers around after the start of the fiscal year.

Yes. I agree with your point. Unfortunately the biggest bottleneck is going to be USCIS ability to carry this to completion given that they are struggling/reluctant to reach annual numbers at the current limits.It would be a shame if the lost FB visas were transferred to the EB category only to be lost to processing delays. Legislatively they could always add language that the additional visas issued be subtracted from the annual EB limit. There is considerable uncertainty yet

[gs1968]

Thanks. You say it quite eloquently that the legislation will not be passed before USCIS 2021 but the intent will remain afterwards.

And that's what makes it tricky. If the intent is there, then my guess is they will not undo spillover to EB. Rather they will allocate more under another version of S386/HR1044 .... and that's how Durbin's wish gets fulfiled. Just a guess BTW. No insider information.

I agree with all your previous posts regarding Sen.Durbin. Hopefully he shows that he is a man with a broad mind and a big heart and definitely a very short memory

[qesehmk]

I agree. I was referring more to the timeline as to when these would be applied. This is an annual allocation and I don't think there is a monthly/quarterly allocation formula that needs to be followed for distribution of these additional numbers. If as I mentioned an additional 9000 numbers (110000/12) are allotted monthly till the issue is resolved then adjustments can be made later if indeed such a legislation came to pass

Yes. Law does not specify how they should be applied over a year. In fact law is silent on any usage at all.

In practice DOS/USCIS have historically applied approx 80% in first 3 Qs and 20% in 4th Q.

Any legislation post Sept will be very very hard pressed to capture what is already allocated to EB. So if such a legislation is in the works, then my guess is DOS is going to withhold declaring availability of any FB spillover visa to EB for USCIS 2021. The moment they declare then Congress will be a difficult situation because then they are past "Do no harm" philosophy.

My money is on Congress allocating new visas (perhaps they will recapture prior unused FB visas). But they will likely let 2020 spillover benefit EB.

[gs1968]

Yes. Law does not specify how they should be applied over a year. In fact law is silent on any usage at all.

In practice DOS/USCIS have historically applied approx 80% in first 3 Qs and 20% in 4th Q.

Any legislation post Sept will be very very hard pressed to capture what is already allocated to EB. So if such a legislation is in the works, then my guess is DOS is going to withhold declaring availability of any FB spillover visa to EB for USCIS 2021. The moment they declare then Congress will be a difficult situation because then they are past "Do no harm" philosophy.

My money is on Congress allocating new visas (perhaps they will recapture prior unused FB visas). But they will likely let EB have these visas.

Thanks for the explanation. Hopefully EB will be allowed to keep at least the first quarter allocation (about 28000) before any changes are made. Visa recapture is good in theory but hard to achieve.The fate of the COVID nurse/physician bill with recapture of 40000 visas is a case in point. Hopefully the check in with CO after the September bulletin will shed more light

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

......Legislatively they could always add language that the additional visas issued be subtracted from the annual EB limit. There is considerable uncertainty yet

I just highlighted this one line, because I will bet nothing gets done legislatively unless it's something core to support Unemployment, Covid or keeping the lights on. The House bills are non-starters at the Senate and vice versa. There will be so much fighting in the next few weeks, ultimately only the bare essentials will filter through in the wee hours before Sept. 30 and any ancillary provisions will be cast aside and they will go home saying we only have 4 weeks to the election, we got stuff to do.

[gs1968]

Yes. Law does not specify how they should be applied over a year. In fact law is silent on any usage at all.

In practice DOS/USCIS have historically applied approx 80% in first 3 Qs and 20% in 4th Q.

Any legislation post Sept will be very very hard pressed to capture what is already allocated to EB. So if such a legislation is in the works, then my guess is DOS is going to withhold declaring availability of any FB spillover visa to EB for USCIS 2021. The moment they declare then Congress will be a difficult situation because then they are past "Do no harm" philosophy.

My money is on Congress allocating new visas (perhaps they will recapture prior unused FB visas). But they will likely let 2020 spillover benefit EB.

This was an amendment introduced by Rep Grace Meng (D-NY 6th district) to the DHS Bill

Rep. Meng – "The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."

[gs1968]

Technically I don't think there are any unused family FB visas as these would have been applied to the EB category for the following year

[jimmys]

It is about half of what is available from family quota of 226 and not the 480. Spill over only accounts for 226K.

If we consider August and September 2020 the final spillover might be close to 120k.

This can realize around 35K for each Eb1, 2 and 3. Eb1 numbers for India beyond April 2018 appears limited looking at the 2019 data and it has the potential to be current by March 2021.

Eb2 Row current for this FY ensures very limited applicants beyond March 2020 in that category. Same thing with Eb3 Row.

As I said earlier December 2011 should be the expected filing date for india in 2 and 3 this October.

Let's assume EB receives 110K spillover from FB.

If 35K is the extra visas allocated to EB-3 in FY 2021, I don't think EB-3 India will reach Dec 2011. There are lot of categories backlogged in EB-3. So, the extra visas will be shared among those categories. And, EB-3 India (and other categories in EB-3) CP numbers will pick up speed in FY 21. Given all that, I don't see a filing date for EB-3 India beyond 2010 in FY 21.

EB-2 can be entirely different. It's mostly AOS and extra numbers to be shared only between India and China. If USCIS is willing to process all the excess numbers, it can easily reach 2011. If there's a vertical SO from EB-1, it's an added advantage. But the question is,can USCIS process those many numbers?

[jimmys]

As long a Biden does not open his mouth, it is Trump’s election to lose.

Does or doesn't?

[gs1968]

I just highlighted this one line, because I will bet nothing gets done legislatively unless it's something core to support Unemployment, Covid or keeping the lights on. The House bills are non-starters at the Senate and vice versa. There will be so much fighting in the next few weeks, ultimately only the bare essentials will filter through in the wee hours before Sept. 30 and any ancillary provisions will be cast aside and they will go home saying we only have 4 weeks to the election, we got stuff to do.

You are 100% correct. In fact I highlighted this in my long post this morning. A CR is probably the only available option now.

[qesehmk]

This was an amendment introduced by Rep Grace Meng (D-NY 6th district) to the DHS Bill

I am aware. But will be hard to pass once USCIS 2021 starts and DOS has to by existing laws make FB spillover available to EB.

Technically I don't think there are any unused family FB visas as these would have been applied to the EB category for the following year

?? Not sure I understand.

[vsivarama]

If USCIS ever has an intention of applying the spillover of 110K or whatever number that flows over to EB, they would need to start from day 1. I do not think they will wait for clarification from congress and then move dates in the later part of the year. The reason I say this is because they will not have the manpower to process all the remaining cases in the second half. Again I am assuming that USCIS does NOT intend to waste the visas available to EB. If they deviate from their principle then I guess no need for us to speculate on the movement.

[qesehmk]

This was an amendment introduced by Rep Grace Meng (D-NY 6th district) to the DHS Bill

Rep. Meng – "The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."

Also not to belabour the point on fallacy of advocacy. But it is really important for everybody to understand this. Those who asked for UC on S386 could easily strike down this amendment knowing this is a good way to at least relieve EB backlogs. But they didn't nor the advocacy champions seemed to have bother to do anything about it.

It is what it is.... but it is important to recognize currents and undercurrents to have realistic expectations.

[qesehmk]

If USCIS ever has an intention of applying the spillover of 110K or whatever number that flows over to EB, they would need to start from day 1. I do not think they will wait for clarification from congress and then move dates in the later part of the year. The reason I say this is because they will not have the manpower to process all the remaining cases in the second half. Again I am assuming that USCIS does NOT intend to waste the visas available to EB. If they deviate from their principle then I guess no need for us to speculate on the movement.

The numbers are controlled by DOS. DOS has to say this on day 1. But in reality DOS generally takes a month or 6 weeks before they formally announce it every year.

[vedu]

Sorry my bad. Thanks for pointing it out. I was in denial mode on the last Check-in with CO where the 25K+ EB visas vanished into thin air. The approval trend does not account for the full usage. Somehow did not register in my brain. So we are back to "hope".

Man, I am looking for something positive here. No matter whichever way I go, you guys keep me tied to the ground.

Well, there are some reasons to be optimistic. We should be happy that the election is after the USCIS new year starts, and even better, the new administration and congress start in January!