Page 268 of 390 FirstFirst ... 168218258266267268269270278318368 ... LastLast
Results 6,676 to 6,700 of 9731

Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #6676
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    36
    Quote Originally Posted by alpha0 View Post
    By not mentioning 25k wastage, CO released whatever pressure congress can put on them. Even if they waste visas now, by the time people know about it, it will be too late to correct it.

    I laugh why he got the wisdom of using pre-adjudicated cases in last two months? He could have used that wisdom starting from June bulletin rather than waiting till Aug bulletin.
    I wonder if many of us reach out to DHS Ombudsman's office, if it will help raise the issue https://www.dhs.gov/contact-cisomb .

    Case Assistance Inquiries: cisombudsman@hq.dhs.gov

    For information relating to teleconferences or stakeholder engagements: CISOmbudsman.PublicAffairs@hq.dhs.gov

    Total lack of transparency and accountability.

  2. #6677
    Quote Originally Posted by Immigo View Post
    I wonder if many of us reach out to DHS Ombudsman's office, if it will help raise the issue https://www.dhs.gov/contact-cisomb .

    Case Assistance Inquiries: cisombudsman@hq.dhs.gov

    For information relating to teleconferences or stakeholder engagements: CISOmbudsman.PublicAffairs@hq.dhs.gov

    Total lack of transparency and accountability.
    If you have a grievance about your specific case associated with a case number, it may be useful. General complaints will likely be just ignored unless it's through a formal mechanism like an inquiry through a member of Congress. With this admin, even that is probably going to be ignored if they can ignore official subpoenas.

  3. #6678

    I94 extension for EAD not needed ( I think)

    @March1612
    myUnderstanding is that you don’t need to extend I94. I don’t extend mine as well. I got uscis save verification for driving license without issues.

  4. #6679
    Quote Originally Posted by march1612 View Post
    I have my Employment based EB2-I I-485 pending with USCIS and I am currently on Parole status and have I94 validity until June 2021.

    Questions:
    1.How can i extend my Parole I-94 beyond June 2021 within US without traveling outside the country?
    2.Where should I apply for Parole I-94 extension and How?
    2.How soon i should i apply for Parole I-94 extension?
    People can be paroled into the U.S. only for a period of up to one year. Thus, your I-94 card will only be valid for a period not to exceed one year from the date of your entry into the U.S. Note that this I-94 expiration date is not relevant for status purposes or AP document validity purposes. Unless you leave the USA and reenter, you cannot extend the validity date on I-94 for "DA" or Parolee class of admission.

    Under current USCIS guidance, individuals maintaining H-1B, L-1A or L-1B status who travel outside the U.S. and reenter using valid AP documents may resume such status assuming that status remains valid. Those using an EAD for employment are not considered to be maintaining their nonimmigrant visa status and must use an AP for travel.

    Hope this helps.

  5. #6680
    From GSiskind: The State Department is now estimating there will be an additional 110,000 green cards for the employment-based categories starting in October (250K in total). It's based on a combination of factors - USCIS slowdowns, consular closures and the 4/22 visa ban.

    https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1287845829567447040

  6. #6681
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Maybe for not penciling A# on the back of photo or it can be request for another set of photos. I can't imagine the mindset of the employees facing Furlough. Stephen Miller had successfully managed to get rid of whatever process chain that was remaining in USCIS.
    At last got my RFE. As per USCIS - "They received my response to the RFE but they are unable to locate it". Looks like I need to redo the medical. Strange, incompetent & frustrating. Did not think that this is a possibility .....
    TSC | PD: 12/21/2009 | RD: 02/14/12| ND: 02/16/12 | FP ND: 03/05/12 | FP: 03/26/12 | EAD/AP: ? | GC: ?

  7. #6682
    Freshman
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Location
    dallas
    Posts
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    From GSiskind: The State Department is now estimating there will be an additional 110,000 green cards for the employment-based categories starting in October (250K in total). It's based on a combination of factors - USCIS slowdowns, consular closures and the 4/22 visa ban.

    https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1287845829567447040



    Based on this how is the forecast for eb2 I looking like

  8. #6683
    Quote Originally Posted by laksinu800 View Post
    Based on this how is the forecast for eb2 I looking like
    I don't think anyone knows how many people are pending or have abandoned. There are others in the forum who have crunched numbers for some time who may be in a better position to respond. Looking at the age old July 2018 485 pending inventory, there were about 15k left over until end of Apr 2010. So worst case, you at least need that much to wipe the backlog until then. But the reality is that many EB2I until mid 2009 have already received their GC, so if we have to make a guesstimate, it's at least 10k, maybe a bit lower than that if some people have received GC through other means, abandoned etc.

  9. #6684
    Even with the additional GCs, I wonder how many I-485s USCIS will realistically be able to process...

  10. #6685
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    Even with the additional GCs, I wonder how many I-485s USCIS will realistically be able to process...
    With the furloughs staved off until end of Aug, you would think that with the dearth of applications, especially with them slow-playing DACA deliberately, they have a lot of capacity. But you can bet your last buck, they will come up with creative ways to slow it down as much as they can.

  11. #6686
    Hi Umesh

    Did you receive the Medical RFE recently? Which Service center?
    =========================================
    EB2-I PD -> 19-Oct-2009 | EAD/AP since -> 30-Apr-2012 | GC -> 08-APR-2021

  12. #6687
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    United States
    Posts
    90
    Will not DHS appropriation bill take away the expected FB SPILLOVER
    As per murthy short term appropriation bill has to be passed

  13. #6688
    Quote Originally Posted by getsaby View Post
    Hi Umesh

    Did you receive the Medical RFE recently? Which Service center?
    Yes, I received medical RFE for me and wife. We both responded in Feb. I got another RFE today. Where they mentioned that they received my RFE response but are unable to locate it.
    TSC | PD: 12/21/2009 | RD: 02/14/12| ND: 02/16/12 | FP ND: 03/05/12 | FP: 03/26/12 | EAD/AP: ? | GC: ?

  14. #6689
    There will be no spillover imo.. stock market will collapse if not passed by Friday... so appropriations bill is already having poisonous pills... I don’t count it until next fiscal year end...

  15. #6690
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    49
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    From GSiskind: The State Department is now estimating there will be an additional 110,000 green cards for the employment-based categories starting in October (250K in total). It's based on a combination of factors - USCIS slowdowns, consular closures and the 4/22 visa ban.

    https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1287845829567447040
    I was expecting the family based spillover to be more than 110k. 110k might just be from 226k family based quota.What about immediate relatives numbers which adds up and makes family based numbers about 480k. Since consulates were closed across the globe for many months and EO has blocked GC issuance for some immediate categories like parents of US citizens, spillover should be way more than 110k.

  16. #6691
    Freshman
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    3
    hours 37 minutes ago
    #1
    Was let in 15 mins before interview. Got called in 10 mins after the time slot. Officer took an oath, went through all "Yes/No" questions from form I-485. Asked for my pay stubs, employment verification letter and almost most of interview was around my arrest record.

    I was not guilty and was found not guilty by the court. I had original certified document from the court along with police report stating that no arrest record exists. But he wanted me really come out and say that I did something wrong and court just looked the other way and gave me a pass. He was very friendly describing series of steps like "Was it one of the cases where you are successful professional, and court said since this is ur first offense we will let it go but you do series of counseling sessions, or community service or something like that in nature". After he said this he quickly stopped smiling and with loud stern voice asked me " Did you or did you not do any community service, or counseling sessions requested by the court to get a not guilty plea ? Did court dismiss it as this was ur first offense? admit it?" I looked straight and said "NO" since I was really not guilty and court had found me "Not guilty".

    Honestly I felt threatened and bullied by an officer. This was not the time and place for that officer to act in that way. I should have honestly asked for supervisor intervention.

    Anyway he went through all the court documents and laughed and said "They really want to say you are not guilty". I also had an assessment letter from my lawyer stating 4 pages long how I was not guilty. He laughed at that and snakily said "well all your records are all expunged, they make it very clear ur not guilty".

    At the end he said "your case is approved and you will receive ur benefit in 2 weeks. If I don't hear anything please call the hotline.

    How do I monitor my status since online case status still says "Interview canceled and notice ordered" ?

    If ur case is honest and truthful but have any court issues please, please take an attorney with you. I had phone interview with Jim Hacking and he had told me that most officers all ask you series of questions related your court case and stop and not talk much expecting you to blurt out something. My officer pulled that trick on me, and thank god I knew that from talking to Jim. I stayed calm and quiet for almost 5 mins, looked straight into the eyes of an officer and didn't say a word. Then he moved along but still kept coming back to my arrest record.

    Finally I think he approved it bcuz there was nothing he could do but honestly felt like he wanted me to agree to what he wanted.

    I hope he doesn't delay my approval bcuz as I was leaving I said "I don't want to touch the door knob, as it will put ur office personnel at risk. Could you please open the door ?" He did but looking back I think he may have mistaken my intentions for asking him to do that.

  17. #6692
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    People can be paroled into the U.S. only for a period of up to one year. Thus, your I-94 card will only be valid for a period not to exceed one year from the date of your entry into the U.S. Note that this I-94 expiration date is not relevant for status purposes or AP document validity purposes. Unless you leave the USA and reenter, you cannot extend the validity date on I-94 for "DA" or Parolee class of admission.

    Under current USCIS guidance, individuals maintaining H-1B, L-1A or L-1B status who travel outside the U.S. and reenter using valid AP documents may resume such status assuming that status remains valid. Those using an EAD for employment are not considered to be maintaining their nonimmigrant visa status and must use an AP for travel.

    Hope this helps.
    Yes , this is right. I have been on EAD/AP for the last 8 years and the i-94 always expired a year from entry . No issues with renewals or future re-entries as they have always happened after the i-94 expiry for me . I-94 is really a no-op while on EAD/AP. It was scary when I had to send my expired i-94 the first time I was renewing my EAD/AP, but now its a routine.

  18. #6693
    Quote Originally Posted by alpha0 View Post
    I was expecting the family based spillover to be more than 110k. 110k might just be from 226k family based quota.What about immediate relatives numbers which adds up and makes family based numbers about 480k. Since consulates were closed across the globe for many months and EO has blocked GC issuance for some immediate categories like parents of US citizens, spillover should be way more than 110k.
    It is about half of what is available from family quota of 226 and not the 480. Spill over only accounts for 226K.

    If we consider August and September 2020 the final spillover might be close to 120k.

    This can realize around 35K for each Eb1, 2 and 3. Eb1 numbers for India beyond April 2018 appears limited looking at the 2019 data and it has the potential to be current by March 2021.

    Eb2 Row current for this FY ensures very limited applicants beyond March 2020 in that category. Same thing with Eb3 Row.

    As I said earlier December 2011 should be the expected filing date for india in 2 and 3 this October.

  19. #6694
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Reading PA
    Posts
    542
    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Will not DHS appropriation bill take away the expected FB SPILLOVER
    As per murthy short term appropriation bill has to be passed
    I would not waste time going through hundreds of pages of the DHS appropriations Bill trying to find out if those provisions are included or not. They may be there now or may be added during the rules committee meeting or as a floor amendment.The DHS bill will be passed as part of a large minibus bill covering appropriations for 7 departments in one package. Generally floor amendments are not allowed for such packages because then the roll call votes will go on forever. This is merely the House of Representatives fulfilling its obligation of initiating spending bills for the next financial year. This will be sent to the Senate where no action is expected to happen on this. The Senate for its part has not marked up any appropriations Bill for the upcoming Fiscal year and is unlikely to do so before September 30 when the current year ends. The COVID relief Bill is going to take most of the next 2-3 weeks and the Senate will recess for at least 3 weeks if not more to give the Senators in tough races a chance to campaign hard in the home stretch. Even in the event of the Senate passing all its appropriations Bills miraculously there is no time for conference to resolve the House-Senate differences and agree/vote on a final package. This leaves the only option of a continuing resolution at the end of September. The above provisions are unlikely to be there in that CR because the current Senate/House/White House structure would still be the same and there is no way the White House will agree to a roll back of the results of its visa ban.

    The length of the CR will most likely be 6 weeks to take us to the middle of November when the results/balance of power after the election will be clearer. There will be a second CR at that pont and the length of that will depend on the election results. If the balance of power remains the same then the pressure would be for an omnibus Bill that includes the favorite provisions of the WH and the above provisions may not see the light of day at all. However if the Democrats retain the House,win the Presidency and win back the Senate or fight it to a draw then there is most likely a 6 week CR to take us into the next year when the new House/Senate and President take over and the balance of power is more favorable. These reclamation provisions could be included in that CR as by then the fight will be over.

    Irrespective of when/how this happens it is very clear that the Democrats are clearly signaling their intent for offering restitution to the people affected by this travel ban. I think the message is to the State department to keep this in mind while moving the availability dates. I think the initial few months will be a wait and watch mode for DOS to see how things play out as far as these provisions are concerned and if there is no movement in reclaiming these visas then to aggressively move the dates in the second half of the FY21. There is also concern that a lot of DV lottery winners were denied their right to immigrate and I expect any eventual plan to include relief for them also

    On a different note IF ( and that is a big IF) the current trends hold and the Democrats assume complete control of the Senate then Sen.Leahy will move to Appropriations Chair ( which is the more coveted and prestigious post and also having already served as Judiciary committee chairman from 200802015) and Senator Durbin will assume the Chairmanship of the Judiciary committee and the Immigration subcommittee

  20. #6695
    Quote Originally Posted by gs1968 View Post
    The above provisions are unlikely to be there in that CR because the current Senate/House/White House structure would still be the same and there is no way the White House will agree to a roll back of the results of its visa ban.

    However if the Democrats retain the House,win the Presidency and win back the Senate or fight it to a draw then there is most likely a 6 week CR to take us into the next year when the new House/Senate and President take over and the balance of power is more favorable. These reclamation provisions could be included in that CR as by then the fight will be over.

    Irrespective of when/how this happens it is very clear that the Democrats are clearly signaling their intent for offering restitution to the people affected by this travel ban. I think the message is to the State department to keep this in mind while moving the availability dates. I think the initial few months will be a wait and watch mode for DOS to see how things play out as far as these provisions are concerned and if there is no movement in reclaiming these visas then to aggressively move the dates in the second half of the FY21. There is also concern that a lot of DV lottery winners were denied their right to immigrate and I expect any eventual plan to include relief for them also.
    Thank you beltway guru gs1968 for such a beautifully crafted post. I look forward to hearing more of your wisdom. We will be damned if democrats win big (The spillover to EB will be stripped away). We will be damned if President DT wins reelection (EB will get spillover, but will but will not be fully used). Maybe if both win (D's the house and R's the Senate), then the status quo will remain (and we will go crazy). If DT loses then we are sure to get the 25K+ carry-over provision from year 2019 quota. That seems to be the conservative calculation for backlogged EB folks.

    It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

  21. #6696
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Thank you beltway guru gs1968 for such a beautifully crafted post. I look forward to hearing more of your wisdom. We will be damned if democrats win big (The spillover to EB will be stripped away). We will be damned if President DT wins reelection (EB will get spillover, but will but will not be fully used). Maybe if both win (D's the house and R's the Senate), then the status quo will remain (and we will go crazy). If DT loses then we are sure to get the 25K+ carry-over provision from year 2019 quota. That seems to be the conservative calculation for backlogged EB folks.

    It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
    As long a Biden does not open his mouth, it is Trump’s election to lose.

  22. #6697
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    If DT loses then we are sure to get the 25K+ carry-over provision from year 2019 quota. That seems to be the conservative calculation for backlogged EB folks.
    Didn't you read the latest update from CO? Now that he said it, there are more reasons to believe that the full EB quota will be used this year. If that happens, there will be no 25K+ carry-over for the next year. Even if we don't believe CO's words completely, the 25K+ can easily become something like 5/10K in their attempt to use visas this year. It is better to count on FB cross-over visas and pray that they don't get stolen from us.

    Also, if you don't believe in CO's words, then you shouldn't also believe in 25K+ carry-over, because that 25K+ number also came from the CO in his previous update. So, don't selectively believe some of his statements, and not believe some of his other statements. Either you believe him OR don't.

  23. #6698
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Location
    Right here in galaxy
    Posts
    70
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    It is about half of what is available from family quota of 226 and not the 480. Spill over only accounts for 226K.

    .
    .

    As I said earlier December 2011 should be the expected filing date for india in 2 and 3 this October.
    I am a completely newbie, but think eb2 and 3 will be on different dates. All of you experts and knowledgeable folks would know better than me. In addition to many variables, the intent of offices and availability of data makes it almost unrealistic to get a closer prediction.
    There are so many variables -
    EB2 and 3 has very different pending numbers.
    There are lots of folks moving from eb2 to 3 now and 3 to 2 earlier.
    Spillover numbers can vary big, and we won't know for sure till Sept.
    USCiS availability of personal and capacity to take X number of cases.
    CO's intent and plans to move dates.
    Potentially high or low demand for ROW after Dec 2020 once the ban ends IF new admin comes.
    Senate balance.
    President.
    And many more probably..

  24. #6699
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    A Galaxy Far far Away
    Posts
    3,337
    Quote Originally Posted by alpha0 View Post
    I was expecting the family based spillover to be more than 110k. 110k might just be from 226k family based quota.What about immediate relatives numbers which adds up and makes family based numbers about 480k. Since consulates were closed across the globe for many months and EO has blocked GC issuance for some immediate categories like parents of US citizens, spillover should be way more than 110k.
    alpha0,

    I’m a bit confused where you are going with this and why you think IR visa issuances in FY2020 would have any effect on the FY2021 EB allocation.

    In simplified terms, the EB allocation for FY2021 will be:
    140,000
    Plus
    Any unused FB visas from FY2020
    Given that the FB allocation for FY2020 was 226,000 if 110,000 were unused, then FB would only have used 116,000 in FY2020.
    The EB allocation for FY2021 would be 140,000 + 110,000 = 250,000

    Immediate Relative visa have no maximum allocation.

    In simplified terms, the FB allocation for FY2021 will be:
    480,000
    Minus
    The number of IR visas issued in FY2020
    Plus
    Any unused EB visas from FY2020

    With the proviso that the minimum number for the FB allocation is 226,000
    Usually, the number of IR visas issued in the previous FY reduces the 480,000 to either a small positive number or a negative number. Any unused EB visas to increase that number are relatively small, so the minimum allocation of 226,000 is used for FB.

    For the FY2021 calculation, it is quite possible that a much smaller number of IR approvals in FY2020 combined with a higher number of unused EB visas in FY2020 could result in FB receiving an allocation of more than 226,000 for FY2021.

    Feel free to correct me, but I do not see how either IR use or the 480,000 figure benefit the EB allocation calculation for FY2021 by increasing it from the latest estimate of 110,000 unused FB visas in FY2020.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  25. #6700
    Quote Originally Posted by gs1968 View Post
    I would not waste time going through hundreds of pages of the DHS appropriations Bill trying to find out if those provisions are included or not. They may be there now or may be added during the rules committee meeting or as a floor amendment.The DHS bill will be passed as part of a large minibus bill covering appropriations for 7 departments in one package. Generally floor amendments are not allowed for such packages because then the roll call votes will go on forever. This is merely the House of Representatives fulfilling its obligation of initiating spending bills for the next financial year. This will be sent to the Senate where no action is expected to happen on this. The Senate for its part has not marked up any appropriations Bill for the upcoming Fiscal year and is unlikely to do so before September 30 when the current year ends. The COVID relief Bill is going to take most of the next 2-3 weeks and the Senate will recess for at least 3 weeks if not more to give the Senators in tough races a chance to campaign hard in the home stretch. Even in the event of the Senate passing all its appropriations Bills miraculously there is no time for conference to resolve the House-Senate differences and agree/vote on a final package. This leaves the only option of a continuing resolution at the end of September. The above provisions are unlikely to be there in that CR because the current Senate/House/White House structure would still be the same and there is no way the White House will agree to a roll back of the results of its visa ban.

    The length of the CR will most likely be 6 weeks to take us to the middle of November when the results/balance of power after the election will be clearer. There will be a second CR at that pont and the length of that will depend on the election results. If the balance of power remains the same then the pressure would be for an omnibus Bill that includes the favorite provisions of the WH and the above provisions may not see the light of day at all. However if the Democrats retain the House,win the Presidency and win back the Senate or fight it to a draw then there is most likely a 6 week CR to take us into the next year when the new House/Senate and President take over and the balance of power is more favorable. These reclamation provisions could be included in that CR as by then the fight will be over.

    Irrespective of when/how this happens it is very clear that the Democrats are clearly signaling their intent for offering restitution to the people affected by this travel ban. I think the message is to the State department to keep this in mind while moving the availability dates. I think the initial few months will be a wait and watch mode for DOS to see how things play out as far as these provisions are concerned and if there is no movement in reclaiming these visas then to aggressively move the dates in the second half of the FY21. There is also concern that a lot of DV lottery winners were denied their right to immigrate and I expect any eventual plan to include relief for them also

    On a different note IF ( and that is a big IF) the current trends hold and the Democrats assume complete control of the Senate then Sen.Leahy will move to Appropriations Chair ( which is the more coveted and prestigious post and also having already served as Judiciary committee chairman from 200802015) and Senator Durbin will assume the Chairmanship of the Judiciary committee and the Immigration subcommittee
    This is too much intelligence my friend. Totally unfair. Bow to you. My humble request - please boil it down to 3 line paragraph conclusion. If I am correct, you are saying that the chance such a bill will be passed before USCIS 2021 starts is low. And thus the spillover will happen.

    What you do not say is that - once USCIS 2021 starts they will (most likely) not try to undo the spillover. Please confirm/correct me.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 3 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 3 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •