EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[alpha0]

Nothing is going to happen unless voiced out. There is only 1 rationale that I can think of for the EB3 movement is due to porting and no demand in EB3.
This movement is inline with the trend from June to July where EB2 FA dates moved less than a month and EB3 by 2 months, but no one saw this coming.

2 months back, eb3 was 3 months behind eb2 india. This is not linear regression. As i said earlier, there is no shortage of visas this year. Issue is of time and resource capacity. Review of 2012 files and RFE issue, receiving RFE docs, sending those back to immigration officer takes few weeks and i feel CO does not want whatever remaining resources into that activity which may not consume a visa before Sep 30.

Just last checkin with Charlie, he was saying eb1/eb2 will not be able to consume their full quota and eb3 will and many on this forum were talking about eb2 reachiing sep/oct 2009 before oct 2020. Just google predictions of people until yday.

[qesehmk]

I am afraid this is not true Q at least right now. My dates became current last month (July visa bulletin) however I have not heard anything. I am checking every day on thier website however status is still showing approval of my RFE in August 2018. I believe someone posted that per folks on trackit only 3 EB2 and 3 EB3 GCs have been processed so far....

There are always exceptions. But generally this is true.

Your 3 weeks will be over tomorrow. You are still within the window. However if you do not hear then you should definitely open a case and/or contact senior state senator or congressman whoever you trust more. Good luck!

[redtogreen]

2 months back, eb3 was 3 months behind eb2 india. This is not linear regression. As i said earlier, there is no shortage of visas this year. Issue is of time and resource capacity. Review of 2012 files and RFE issue, receiving RFE docs, sending those back to immigration officer takes few weeks and i feel CO does not want whatever remaining resources into that activity which may not consume a visa before Sep 30.

Just last checkin with Charlie, he was saying eb1/eb2 will not be able to consume their full quota and eb3 will and many on this forum were talking about eb2 reachiing sep/oct 2009 before oct 2020. Just google predictions of people until yday.

I agree but one of the concerned groups right now ( due to current bulletin) is that of EB2I folks whose PD is early 2010, who have filed their 485s and have been patiently waiting since 2012. Calculations now ( based on the data that we have) show that reaching 2010 is a hit or miss next fiscal year, whereas it was more positive until last month. This group will agree abt the frustrating ordeal to miss the boat by a few months(or days?!) knowing there were visas that got wasted! Anyways, let's hope for the best. We have waited so far, let's wait until Dec to see how it goes. Maybe that's the right time to vent out frustrations.

[usvisas]

Q - do you mean 3 weeks for those whose cases have been pre adjudicated and in the clear (interview and all done)

[qesehmk]

Q - do you mean 3 weeks for those whose cases have been pre adjudicated and in the clear (interview and all done)

That's precisely what I mean. Now if somebody never done those things - obviously they will take more time. But we are talking about backlogged folks who have already filed 485 for years.

Sorry. I should have made this clear right up front.

[alpha0]

I agree but one of the concerned groups right now ( due to current bulletin) is that of EB2I folks whose PD is early 2010, who have filed their 485s and have been patiently waiting since 2012. Calculations now ( based on the data that we have) show that reaching 2010 is a hit or miss next fiscal year, whereas it was more positive until last month. This group will agree abt the frustrating ordeal to miss the boat by a few months(or days?!) knowing there were visas that got wasted! Anyways, let's hope for the best. We have waited so far, let's wait until Dec to see how it goes. Maybe that's the right time to vent out frustrations.

I agree. Wait till first quarter to see the progress. I see two things in favor of eb2india - eb2 row is current and eb2 has historically less consular processing cases, where as eb3 row is not yet current and once EO ends, india+phillipines will start consuming more and more of eb3 visas next year.

And if 100k+SO comes from FB, then it will be a completely different situation.

[IamGSN]

That's precisely what I mean. Now if somebody never done those things - obviously they will take more time. But we are talking about backlogged folks who have already filed 485 for years.

Sorry. I should have made this clear right up front.

Q,

What is preadjudicated mean? I had filed my I-485 with Medical last year, finished my Biometrics, responded to RFE and got accepted.

Interview was scheduled and got cancelled due to Covid -19. Not sure if USCIS will reschedule interview in near future due to Pandemic. My I-485 is pending approval due to visa availability, but it will be current in August. So am I preadjudicated? or I need to wait for the interview.

[alpha0]

Q,

What is preadjudicated mean? I had filed my I-485 with Medical last year, finished my Biometrics, responded to RFE and got accepted.

Interview was scheduled and got cancelled due to Covid -19. Not sure if USCIS will reschedule interview in near future due to Pandemic. My I-485 is pending approval due to visa availability, but it will be current in August. So am I preadjudicated? or I need to wait for the interview.

You are NOT preadjudicated. You will have to wait for interview unless USCIS waives it.

[4WatItsWorth]

You are NOT preadjudicated. You will have to wait for interview unless USCIS waives it.

My interview was in December last year but the status has been, “...case must be reviewed.” Is it pre-adjudicated? How do I know when it is?

[qesehmk]

Q,

What is preadjudicated mean? I had filed my I-485 with Medical last year, finished my Biometrics, responded to RFE and got accepted.

Interview was scheduled and got cancelled due to Covid -19. Not sure if USCIS will reschedule interview in near future due to Pandemic. My I-485 is pending approval due to visa availability, but it will be current in August. So am I preadjudicated? or I need to wait for the interview.

It would mean they would do everything on the case except for visa allocation. So whenever the visa was ready they would assign.

In old days (5-10 years back) 485 interview was very rare. And so the whole preadjudication was relatively fast (3 months). I do not know what's the situation now. I would guess they are waiving the interview requirement in light of covid. But I do not know for sure.

[rabp77]

It would mean they would do everything on the case except for visa allocation. So whenever the visa was ready they would assign.

In old days (5-10 years back) 485 interview was very rare. And so the whole preadjudication was relatively fast (3 months). I do not know what's the situation now. I would guess they are waiving the interview requirement in light of covid. But I do not know for sure.

Hi Q,

thats informative. one question. can we assume that a case is "Pre-adjudicated" if interview/fingerprint is complete, and all medicals were sent in Oct-2019, and we have not heard back since then. My Status still shows "Interview is Scheduled" for the last one year, even though we completed the interview in october 2019.

thank you

[usvisas]

does anyone know of waived interviews in the last 3-4 months?

[srimurthy]

I agree. Wait till first quarter to see the progress. I see two things in favor of eb2india - eb2 row is current and eb2 has historically less consular processing cases, where as eb3 row is not yet current and once EO ends, india+phillipines will start consuming more and more of eb3 visas next year.

And if 100k+SO comes from FB, then it will be a completely different situation.

Man I love the optimistic and positive outlook here.
I gave up long time as I feel even if there is a chance for CO to move dates for EB2I with so many pre adjudicated cases they hardly moved the dates. When every common person is expecting there may be around 40K visas available for use because of consular offices closure, I feel there is no intent to clear or use the numbers or visas available. And when there is no intent no matter what we try to calculate or predict, there will always be an outliner to support what CO wants to do.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q,

thats informative. one question. can we assume that a case is "Pre-adjudicated" if interview/fingerprint is complete, and all medicals were sent in Oct-2019, and we have not heard back since then. My Status still shows "Interview is Scheduled" for the last one year, even though we completed the interview in october 2019.

thank you

If there is no RFE so far and your date is going to be current next month, then I would think your case ready to grant a visa (i.e. GC). Good luck!

[alpha0]

Man I love the optimistic and positive outlook here.
I gave up long time as I feel even if there is a chance for CO to move dates for EB2I with so many pre adjudicated cases they hardly moved the dates. When every common person is expecting there may be around 40K visas available for use because of consular offices closure, I feel there is no intent to clear or use the numbers or visas available. And when there is no intent no matter what we try to calculate or predict, there will always be an outliner to support what CO wants to do.

No one knows why CO did not start moving eb2india dates 2-3 months back.

[getsaby]

Ahoy Q

What you make of my Case, I replied to Medical and Supp J RFE on August 15, 2018, do you think I have to do medical again, this will be my fourth time
my PD Eb2I with 10/19/2009.

Can we SUE DHS regarding this whole medical thing, it is an unnecessary burden on us

[redtogreen]

I agree. Wait till first quarter to see the progress. I see two things in favor of eb2india - eb2 row is current and eb2 has historically less consular processing cases, where as eb3 row is not yet current and once EO ends, india+phillipines will start consuming more and more of eb3 visas next year.

And if 100k+SO comes from FB, then it will be a completely different situation.

The massive SO (if it actually happens given some bills circulating) is only around 2000 additional visas for EB2I due to category + country caps, enough to cover until late 2009. Rest depends on vertical and horizontal SO, if only utilized the way they should be. We are currently seeing what is happening with such SO for EB2I irrespective of visa availability, so It's too early to predict any traction for PDs in 2010. So let's hang in there! The first quarter will be interesting but the current visa bulletin kind of gives an insight.

[qesehmk]

Ahoy Q

What you make of my Case, I replied to Medical and Supp J RFE on August 15, 2018, do you think I have to do medical again, this will be my fourth time
my PD Eb2I with 10/19/2009.

Can we SUE DHS regarding this whole medical thing, it is an unnecessary burden on us

Generally speaking somebody like you should not be worried at all. If there was a problem it would have been known by now.

I agree on medical. The root of that practice lies in USA's insistence on "Good moral conduct" as a key requirement for immigration eligibility. Thus they prohibited homosexuals until (I believe) in 1990 when Bush Sr allowed homosexuals. So I really don't understand the purpose of the medical at all.

As per suing ... this is the greatest country on earth ... I truly believe that because you can sue government and have a fair chance of winning. In this particular case you will have to prove that this puts undue burden on you. I think that will be the case. Otherwise you don't have a case.

[alpha0]

The massive SO (if it actually happens given some bills circulating) is only around 2000 additional visas for EB2I due to category + country caps, enough to cover until late 2009. Rest depends on vertical and horizontal SO, if only utilized the way they should be. We are currently seeing what is happening with such SO for EB2I irrespective of visa availability, so It's too early to predict any traction for PDs in 2010. So let's hang in there! The first quarter will be interesting but the current visa bulletin kind of gives an insight.

We dont know what will be FB SO numbers (if any depending on bills as you said). Since Eb2 ROW is current and demand for Eb2 ROW will definitely not more in 2021 compared to current year or previous year, most of the Eb2 spillover should come to Eb2 India.

[eb2may2010]

Hello all, my priority date is in may 2010 ..any hope to get a chance to file 485 this year? It's been a endless wait and kind of getting tired after 18 years here...

[redtogreen]

We dont know what will be FB SO numbers (if any depending on bills as you said). Since Eb2 ROW is current and demand for Eb2 ROW will definitely not more in 2021 compared to current year or previous year, most of the Eb2 spillover should come to Eb2 India.

Appreciate the optimism.

[Crypto]

There are always exceptions. But generally this is true.

Your 3 weeks will be over tomorrow. You are still within the window. However if you do not hear then you should definitely open a case and/or contact senior state senator or congressman whoever you trust more. Good luck!

Q, looking for some more guidance here. I looked up at USCIS website for opening up the case. They suggest opening a case if your believe your case is taking longer then there normal processing time. Unfortunately I could not find specific time frame for getting Card once the your priority becomes current. All they have published is time it takes for I485 processing.

Is there a published time line for getting card in 3 weeks post date becoming current? If not what info to provide supporting my case is taking longer then there processing time?

I have filled 485 in 2012, applied for 4th EAD renewal and got it recently. Also my RFE for medical and Supp J was received by USCIS in Aug 2018 so technically I am still under 2 years of medical renewal need.

[qesehmk]

Don't stress out. It's around the corner. Don't open a case if they say so. Just contact your senator or congressman.

Q, looking for some more guidance here. I looked up at USCIS website for opening up the case. They suggest opening a case if your believe your case is taking longer then there normal processing time. Unfortunately I could not find specific time frame for getting Card once the your priority becomes current. All they have published is time it takes for I485 processing.

Is there a published time line for getting card in 3 weeks post date becoming current? If not what info to provide supporting my case is taking longer then there processing time?

I have filled 485 in 2012, applied for 4th EAD renewal and got it recently. Also my RFE for medical and Supp J was received by USCIS in Aug 2018 so technically I am still under 2 years of medical renewal need.

[getsaby]

What is your PD Crypto, I assume you are Eb2-I.

Q, looking for some more guidance here. I looked up at USCIS website for opening up the case. They suggest opening a case if your believe your case is taking longer then there normal processing time. Unfortunately I could not find specific time frame for getting Card once the your priority becomes current. All they have published is time it takes for I485 processing.

Is there a published time line for getting card in 3 weeks post date becoming current? If not what info to provide supporting my case is taking longer then there processing time?

I have filled 485 in 2012, applied for 4th EAD renewal and got it recently. Also my RFE for medical and Supp J was received by USCIS in Aug 2018 so technically I am still under 2 years of medical renewal need.

[Crypto]

What is your PD Crypto, I assume you are Eb2-I.

7 Jul 2009. EB2-I.