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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #6476
    Congratulations aquatician! Great news.

    Based on trackitt conversation (including aquatician's update), it looks like USCIS is continuing to work, process and approve cases. That is good news. Assuming that USCIS will be bailed out and will not need to furlough staff, we may end up utilizing good amount of the annual quota after all.

    Quote Originally Posted by aquatican View Post
    Hello Guys, My I-485 case status changed to 'Card is being Produced'.
    Should i not say 'Case Approved'? a bit confused.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  2. #6477
    calking1975 thank you!
    i feel your pain man. i missed the 2012 window since i was restarting PERM.
    In 2015 when VB filing date advanced and reversed i made it with margin of 2 days and filed I-485. That made life 10x more bearable with EAD and AC21 protection.

    with ample spillover and suspension of processing i am quite optimistic that you will be able to file soon when filing dates advance.
    EB-2 I Priority Date - 06/19/2009 I-485 Filed - 10/2015

  3. #6478
    From Murthy Law Firm on CO check-in:

    Question About Fiscal Limit Not Being Reached
    Last month, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the annual limit on employment-based green cards is unlikely to be reached this fiscal year. This prompted a follow-up question from the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA), asking why Mr. Oppenheim does not therefore accelerate the cutoff dates in the monthly visa bulletin to increase usage. Mr. Oppenheim responded as follows:

    “That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use. Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS [U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services] is diminished due to the pandemic … The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies’ (and State’s) [the USCIS’s (and DOS’s)] diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.”

  4. #6479
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    The agencies’ (and State’s) [the USCIS’s (and DOS’s)] diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year.
    This statement from CO is patently false. There is tens of thousands of people from EB-India who are simply waiting for a visa. No processing is needed. All they have to do is simply allocate the visa.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  5. #6480
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    This statement from CO is patently false. There is tens of thousands of people from EB-India who are simply waiting for a visa. No processing is needed. All they have to do is simply allocate the visa.
    Can these cases be approved without advancing dates? What is he hinting at?

  6. #6481
    Quote Originally Posted by need4speed View Post
    Can these cases be approved without advancing dates? What is he hinting at?
    In case of EB-I there is a pre-approved cases' backlog. All they need is a visa. If I am not wrong this "pre-approved" backlog goes all the way into 2010. But if the dates are not FAD then USCIS does not ask for a visa and if USCIS does not ask for a visa then DOS can not allocate the visa.

    Thus right now the ball is squarely in Charlie Oppenheim's court. (CO is head of visa allocation I believe).
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  7. #6482
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    In case of EB-I there is a pre-approved cases' backlog. All they need is a visa. If I am not wrong this "pre-approved" backlog goes all the way into 2010. But if the dates are not FAD then USCIS does not ask for a visa and if USCIS does not ask for a visa then DOS can not allocate the visa.

    Thus right now the ball is squarely in Charlie Oppenheim's court. (CO is head of visa allocation I believe).
    Thank Q. That makes sense.

    Could this mean that CO is going to advance the final action date to the at least the filing dates for each category by September. Since most of the case till the filing dates have already been filled and processed, this will not be impacted by processing capacity. I wonder if this is is what it means. Would be interested in knowing your thoughts.

  8. #6483
    Thank you, movement of FAD is in CO’s hand and he can move FAD to DF , this will make all EAD holders greened. If that doesn’t happen by EoY, then there is no point of waiting since all the actions are done to hold EB -I forever, cheap strategy. But what is the reason of holding EB2 only? We have seen movement on EB1 and EB3 though.

  9. #6484
    I think the problem is with USCIS - even if CO moves dates, they can choose not to honor them, right? And USCIS is now politicized. So perhaps they told CO that if he moves dates beyond X date, they will not honor them. So perhaps his hands are bound? I don't know...just speculating.

  10. #6485
    Not exactly, USCIS has to accept either DOF or FA. If CO Moves FA to lets say April 2010. USCIS just has to allocate GC against already filed I-485( in 2012), as per Qshmek.

  11. #6486
    I am sure they are using FORTRAN aged systems and would require manual steps.

  12. #6487
    I think CO is clearly saying that he thinks visas will be wasted because USCIS has less processing capability and he will not move dates because he sees no point.

    What he is not saying is there is a pre processed demand beyond current dates and all they need is a visa. So the ball is in his court not USCIS' court - especially if CO thinks he will have visas and tehy will be wasted.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  13. #6488
    Quote Originally Posted by aquatican View Post
    Hello Guys, My I-485 case status changed to 'Card is being Produced'.
    Should i not say 'Case Approved'? a bit confused.
    Congrats! When did you go for interview?

  14. #6489
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I think CO is clearly saying that he thinks visas will be wasted because USCIS has less processing capability and he will not move dates because he sees no point.

    What he is not saying is there is a pre processed demand beyond current dates and all they need is a visa. So the ball is in his court not USCIS' court - especially if CO thinks he will have visas and tehy will be wasted.
    CO will be a partner in crime if he does not move FAD to consume those 25k GCs. That will give USCIS just an excuse that they processed cases based on final action dates set by DoS.

    I read somewhere about setting up of dates - USCIS demands visas to DoS and then depending on number of visas still available, DoS moves dates so that consulates can process the remaining numbers. I agree that consulates are not allowed to issue EB GCs but there was no mention of DoS considering USCIS capacity to publish dates. And since spillover next year will be more then 25k and consulates are not going to issue EB GCs for first quarter, fear of retrogression mentioned by CO is also baseless.

    I am surprised (or may be not) that no lawyer asked CO what is the processing effort needed in cases where interviews are complete and nothing is pending except priority dates to be current.

  15. #6490
    Quote Originally Posted by IamGSN View Post
    Congrats! When did you go for interview?
    IamGSN i was exempt for interview since i filed for AoS in 2015
    EB-2 I Priority Date - 06/19/2009 I-485 Filed - 10/2015

  16. #6491
    Quote Originally Posted by mahendra View Post
    Out of curiosity...
    How pre-adjudicated cases get approved when PD becomes current?
    Does each case go through click-review-approve flow? Or, is it system automated bulk approval? Wondering if they need more staff to process it.
    From what i understand as well as seeing the way the status change it is a manual review and approval done by an officer.
    EB-2 I Priority Date - 06/19/2009 I-485 Filed - 10/2015

  17. #6492
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    I filed in 2010 and my Priority date is 04/02/2010. Am I exempt from the interview as well when my date becomes current?

  18. #6493
    Yup. No interview for you.

    Quote Originally Posted by prabakarb View Post
    I filed in 2010 and my Priority date is 04/02/2010. Am I exempt from the interview as well when my date becomes current?
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  19. #6494
    Quote Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I View Post
    I am sure they are using FORTRAN aged systems and would require manual steps.
    I think you meant COBOL. Sorry could not let this go without rebuttal. New FORTRAN standards 2008 / 2013 are very powerful and even better than C++. Everything you know in C / C++ was implemented in FORTRAN about 15+ years back. Most design patterns can be done in FORTRAN. Lately C++ has been borrowing some of the features from FORTRAN standards. For example array additions can be written in one line as c = a+b; No operator overloading type business. Most of the basic operations (eg., Max, Min, Maxloc, Minloc, etc) are natively supported in language standards and no school 101 level coding is needed. Supports highly parallel capabilities that you can control easily. Of course most of the engineering software and solvers are written in FORTRAN on the background. Heck, OOP was implemented in Fortran 15+ years back. Try dealing with Fourier series in time and frequency domain (with one data of order of 2^16 or 2**16 in FORTRAN) or sparse simultaneous equations with 1+ million degrees of freedom and doing all the operations on them on any other software. FORTRAN was built for hardcore number crunching and no one can beat it at its game. Sadly it is not attractive from commercial point of view.

    I understand that most of you in IT industry are from Java/C++ type background. I sometimes wonder how many people in typical IT jobs get to play with design patterns and correct data representation for their applications that we learnt in Algorithms class. It has a different purpose.

  20. #6495
    Changing the topic a bit, anyone have Reddy & Co as their attorneys? I hear rumor that they told clients in this weekly meeting that only EB1 will move in next VB. Does AILA faithful’s have some insider information?

  21. #6496
    Yes, they said here is the link( please watch between 20Min -24 Min.
    https://youtu.be/B8xEU629WAQ

  22. #6497
    Quote Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I View Post
    Yes, they said here is the link( please watch between 20Min -24 Min.
    https://youtu.be/B8xEU629WAQ
    Thank you. This does not look like new information. False Alarm. Ms. Rebecca Chen is saying that she expects movement for EB1I in October based on CO's comments. She cannot say whether there will be movement or how much of a movement will be there in October for EB2I and EB3I. "Hopefully" is the word used for EB2I/EB3I.

    I guess we need to just wait, watch and pray that Mr. CO throws us some breadcrumbs in the next VB.

  23. #6498
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    Quote Originally Posted by alpha0 View Post
    CO will be a partner in crime if he does not move FAD to consume those 25k GCs. That will give USCIS just an excuse that they processed cases based on final action dates set by DoS.

    I read somewhere about setting up of dates - USCIS demands visas to DoS and then depending on number of visas still available, DoS moves dates so that consulates can process the remaining numbers. I agree that consulates are not allowed to issue EB GCs but there was no mention of DoS considering USCIS capacity to publish dates. And since spillover next year will be more then 25k and consulates are not going to issue EB GCs for first quarter, fear of retrogression mentioned by CO is also baseless.

    I am surprised (or may be not) that no lawyer asked CO what is the processing effort needed in cases where interviews are complete and nothing is pending except priority dates to be current.
    The process for visa allocation is explained quite well in this document.

    CO gets exact numbers from the consulates in advance of the FAD calculation and VB publication. The exact number of visas are allocated (at the time of VB publication) to each consulate based on the FAD movement, based on the reports each consulate submitted. If the consulate cannot interview the candidate and make a decision, then the visa is returned to CO in the following month.

    CO appears to have some idea of preadjudicated cases that USCIS has (in his "pending file") . A visa number for AOS cases is not allocated until USCIS perform the actual approval and request the visa. During a month, not all cases approved by USCIS were preadjudicated and in the "pending file" that CO has access to. Even though CO sends USCIS a list of the cases in the "pending file" that have become current, that does not mean that USCIS can approve all those case in that month. That may be because additional information is required (e.g. up to date medical) or the much talked about processing capacity, or it might be that the paperwork does not make it from storage in time to the location where the case can be reviewed and approved.

    That is my best understanding of the process, but I do encourage people to read the DOS explanation of the process.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  24. #6499
    I do believe CO can do better. Hence I agree with anyone saying that - "He is a partner in this crime" or that he is riding the gravy train...

    Not picking on Spec but using his update to put forth my points :

    a) Since Consulates are closed, CO should have the number from Consulate as ZERO [0] in his calculator or Excel or any tool he uses.

    b) CO should not have "some" idea but clear idea and number based on "Preadjudicated" cases.

    CO can do the above two for sure and should not give any excuses.

    The folks who are responsible for transporting the paperwork from Storage to location - should clearly review their performance. Dude, If this is your Job and you are getting paid for it - Do it on time and do it efficiently.
    If this is too much of an ask, do consider hiring us [immigrants] and we can show how its done.

    Imagine if a lawn contractor, or plumber or handyman that you use - give you the excuses we have been seeing in doing their Job [Keeping updates straightforward, do their work and bill for only what they do] - We would have fired them longtime ago. For christsakes, we are not asking for grace or help or relying on luck - DO THE JOB...




    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The process for visa allocation is explained quite well in this document.

    CO gets exact numbers from the consulates in advance of the FAD calculation and VB publication. The exact number of visas are allocated (at the time of VB publication) to each consulate based on the FAD movement, based on the reports each consulate submitted. If the consulate cannot interview the candidate and make a decision, then the visa is returned to CO in the following month.

    CO appears to have some idea of preadjudicated cases that USCIS has (in his "pending file") . A visa number for AOS cases is not allocated until USCIS perform the actual approval and request the visa. During a month, not all cases approved by USCIS were preadjudicated and in the "pending file" that CO has access to. Even though CO sends USCIS a list of the cases in the "pending file" that have become current, that does not mean that USCIS can approve all those case in that month. That may be because additional information is required (e.g. up to date medical) or the much talked about processing capacity, or it might be that the paperwork does not make it from storage in time to the location where the case can be reviewed and approved.

    That is my best understanding of the process, but I do encourage people to read the DOS explanation of the process.

  25. #6500
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    That DoS document helped a lot to understand the date finalization process.

    I can not buy CO's argument that he knows there are more than 25k pre-adjudicatd cases and he also has supply of those 25k visas, he will still not move the dates because USCIS can not process those. In that document, there was no mention of considering USCIS capacity in establishing VB dates.

    What processing is needed for people who cleared interviews last year and whose medicals are valid and there is no 485J filed? Just a background check and push a button to order cards?

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