EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[bloddy1]

IMO, it doesn't matter how many visas we get from FB for FY 21. What matters is how many new cases USCIS can process for AOS applicants in FY 21. The already interviewed cases for EB-3 and no-interview requirement cases for EB-2 will soon evaporate.

Agree with this fascinating statement despite being seemingly simple. Every instance CO has pushed back on being aggressive on dates boils down to TWO things;
1) a visa availability problem and
2) internal workforce planning (adjudicate and provide final approval);

AND specifically in that order

Case in point, 2015 October visa bulletin, large scale movement was pushed back purely because you CANNOT ramp-up and train an entire workforce to adjudicate incoming demand for ONE specific type of demand (EB2/3-I) when that demand isn't sustainable. From CO standpoint, this is a workforce management problem as supported by visa number availability, hence predictability is THE ONLY thing he can rely on. So, if I need to plan for 20000 USCIS workers to adjudicate 50 odd categories of Green Cards (asylum, FB, EB 1,2....5) for 100s of countries with numerous documentation variations with minimal error rate, you are down to single digits per service center that will actually be able to do specific clearance.

And if I planned my workforce for EB India specifically, then demand at best is 1 month per bulletin on both Final and Filing dates (which by far has been the most predictable movement).

Peak volume processing is limited by workforce experience in EB -> EB2 -> EB2India. So doesn't matter the tailwinds you are still blocked by workforce problems. Hence, the only time you will see faster than a month per bulletin is demand in EB-> EB2 or 3 is lesser from other countries. It doesn't help if FB demand or even EB 1/4/5 demand is lesser than usual.

[Zenzone]

Then why he moved EB1 substantially in this bulletin.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

So essentially there is push-pull for all parties involved, Us, USCIS and Admin. In our case, some of us are celebrating that Covid/EO is a spillover goldmine, but the Admin can also use the same excuse to waste those visas. On the USCIS side, they are hemorrhaging money and are not able to sustain the workforce because of reduced filings but would like the revenue for sure and not go to Congress begging for money. The Admin is pressuring USCIS to restrict processing and kill the excess visas but that could end up loss/furlough of more American jobs at USCIS. So it's a nice circular conundrum.

Maybe this is all wishful thinking, but in my opinion, our best bet is that USCIS gets it's funding. It's too unrealistic to expect that they will open the floodgates because they already have moved the dates to May 1, 2010 before so unless they move it to end of 2010 or something, it's not going to impact their funding shortfall. If they get their funding, then they can bring back their employees to full strength and start processing. With the incoming application levels falling off a cliff, they have got to be able to process at least the pre-adjudicated cases through April 2010 when it comes to EB2-I.

[usvisas]

Is it true that significant percentage of EB3I are done by consular processing? I thought that was only true for EB3 Philippines.

[rocketfast]

Is it true that significant percentage of EB3I are done by consular processing? I thought that was only true for EB3 Philippines.

It has only been this way for the last 1.5 years. Because EB3-I moved fast, a lot of Indians that had gone back to India with a valid PD are coming back.
As we move through the recession years (2009, 2010), you will likely have more consular processing.

[usvisas]

Got it. Thanks rocketfast. Is there a way to see this data somewhere? I cannot seem to find that here https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2019.html

[rocketfast]

Got it. Thanks rocketfast. Is there a way to see this data somewhere? I cannot seem to find that here https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2019.html

Read from the second post in the below link (or the previous page). I did not want you to assume that I was pointing you to read the first post.
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...-Onwards/page3

[idliman]

Just a heads-up to all the pending I485 applicants who may be sending their applications to TSC (e.g., renewal of their EAD/AP). Double check the address from USCIS website before sending the applications (TSC). They are moving to a new address.

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/te...ddress-june-26

On June 26, the Texas Service Center will move to a new address. Although the move is scheduled for June 26, USCIS cannot accept mail at the new address until Monday, June 29. The new facility will help streamline processes by consolidating operations in the new location. The Texas Service Center will continue to provide prompt and efficient service in processing requests for immigration benefits. The updated address for the service center will be:

Texas Service Center
6046 N Belt Line Rd.
Irving, TX 75038-0001

[bloddy1]

Fuloughs at USCIS Coming more reason to not give numbers this year

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/polit...ugh/index.html

[rocketfast]

Fuloughs at USCIS Coming more reason to not give numbers this year

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/polit...ugh/index.html

Spec recently posted that spillovers from EB go to FB and FB to EB. Does this mean that there can never be any wastage anymore? And the extra numbers forever in circulation till they are used up? I am trying to understand whether the unused EB this year after going to FB can again come back to EB.

[Immigo]

Looking again at the guidance from CO ( https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/ ), a few statements stand out:

1) Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
2) The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given that 25K EB visas are expected to be unused, 2) should imply that EB2-I Final action date would reach May 1, 2010 by September 2020 bulletin and should clean out existing inventory. However, EB3-I also has pre-adjudicated demand. Eg. in October 2019, filing date for EB-3 was Feb 1, 2010. Does anyone know why is this demand not considered pre-adjudicated demand in the above statement ? Additionally, even though EB-3 numbers will be utilized, some numbers can be used from the 25K unused numbers. Therefore, shouldn't EB3-I reach Feb 1, 2010 as well by September 2020 bulletin ?

[jimmys]

Looking again at the guidance from CO ( https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/ ), a few statements stand out:

1) Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
2) The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given that 25K EB visas are expected to be unused, 2) should imply that EB2-I Final action date would reach May 1, 2010 by September 2020 bulletin and should clean out existing inventory. However, EB3-I also has pre-adjudicated demand. Eg. in October 2019, filing date for EB-3 was Feb 1, 2010. Does anyone know why is this demand not considered pre-adjudicated demand in the above statement ? Additionally, even though EB-3 numbers will be utilized, some numbers can be used from the 25K unused numbers. Therefore, shouldn't EB3-I reach Feb 1, 2010 as well by September 2020 bulletin ?

The reason is in #1 as you mentioned. Since EB3 category is expected to reach its annual limit, there's no horizontal spillover to EB-3 I. In case of EB-2 I, there's horizontal spillover expected(May get some vertical spillover too). So, in all EB-2 I will march ahead in the coming months. This is what CO answered in monthly check in. Maybe in FY 21, after EB-3 ROW becomes current, then EB-3 India will start moving.

Looks like 25K visas will be wasted between EB-5, EB-1, and EB-2 categories. It's up to USCIS/DoS to come up a plan to approve EB-3 I pending inventory. The probability for that to happen is very low.

[srimurthy]

Looking again at the guidance from CO ( https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/ ), a few statements stand out:

1) Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
2) The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given that 25K EB visas are expected to be unused, 2) should imply that EB2-I Final action date would reach May 1, 2010 by September 2020 bulletin and should clean out existing inventory. However, EB3-I also has pre-adjudicated demand. Eg. in October 2019, filing date for EB-3 was Feb 1, 2010. Does anyone know why is this demand not considered pre-adjudicated demand in the above statement ? Additionally, even though EB-3 numbers will be utilized, some numbers can be used from the 25K unused numbers. Therefore, shouldn't EB3-I reach Feb 1, 2010 as well by September 2020 bulletin ?

My understanding is EB2-I is adjustment of status filing 485s already in US and they submitted the applications when dates moved to Apr'2010, where as EB3 I most cases may be CP cases so they have to be filed outside of India and the applications may not have been submitted yet.
Experts can correct my interpretation. But no matter what unless USCIS plans to request for a Visa number it doesn't matter if we have 25K spillover or 60K next year.

[bloddy1]

My understanding is EB2-I is adjustment of status filing 485s already in US and they submitted the applications when dates moved to Apr'2010, where as EB3 I most cases may be CP cases so they have to be filed outside of India and the applications may not have been submitted yet.
Experts can correct my interpretation. But no matter what unless USCIS plans to request for a Visa number it doesn't matter if we have 25K spillover or 60K next year.

What happens when the current EB2&3I pre-adjudicated inventory until April 2010 does run out, especially since new interviews are not being conducted. Assuming a good chunk of spillover could be directly applied to pending inventory.

When you say plan to request a visa number, are you pointing to ability of USCIS to process or other hurdles

[Spectator]

Spec recently posted that spillovers from EB go to FB and FB to EB. Does this mean that there can never be any wastage anymore? And the extra numbers forever in circulation till they are used up? I am trying to understand whether the unused EB this year after going to FB can again come back to EB.

A few points.

The above has always been the case - it's nothing new.

With the exception of F2A (a recent phenomenon), all FB categories are severely retrogressed and should, in theory, use any extra visas that might be allocated.

The calculation for the FY allocation for FB is slightly more complicated than the EB one. In very simple terms, it says:

The FB allocation is:
480,000
minus
The number of Immediate Relative approvals in the previous FY.
minus
The number of aliens who were paroled into the United States under section 1182(d)(5) of this title in the second preceding fiscal year (not that many).
plus
The number of unused EB visas in the previous FY.

There is a caveat that in no case may the total allocation be less than 226,000.

If we look at the rough calculation for FY2019, you will see why FB will always receive 226,000 regardless of how many unused EB visa there are.

480,000 - 478,961 (FY2018 IR) = 1,039

Number of parolees is unknown,, but would only reduce the number.

So, around 225k of unused EB visas from the previous FY would have been needed just to bring the calculation up to the minimum of 226k.

In a real sense, only EB can benefit from wasted visas since the calculation for the FY EB allocation is simply:

140,000
plus
The number of unused FB visas in the previous FY.

[srimurthy]

What happens when the current EB2&3I pre-adjudicated inventory until April 2010 does run out, especially since new interviews are not being conducted. Assuming a good chunk of spillover could be directly applied to pending inventory.

Then CO may move dates to get the new demand.

When you say plan to request a visa number, are you pointing to ability of USCIS to process or other hurdles

Yes and the workforce capacity and ability to process as many as they can when the spillover availabilities are clear.

[IamGSN]

Just a heads-up to all the pending I485 applicants who may be sending their applications to TSC (e.g., renewal of their EAD/AP). Double check the address from USCIS website before sending the applications (TSC). They are moving to a new address.

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/te...ddress-june-26

Guys,

Have couple questions:

1. What are the documents needed for EAD+AP Combo card renewal?
2. Can I file myself for renewal, or I need to file through the attorney?

I checked the fee calculator, it came out to be zero. If anybody has filed for renewal recently, can you suggest the process? I haven't received my response yet from my attorney. I need to apply once the 180 clock starts

[vckomara]

Guys,

Have couple questions:

1. What are the documents needed for EAD+AP Combo card renewal?
2. Can I file myself for renewal, or I need to file through the attorney?

I checked the fee calculator, it came out to be zero. If anybody has filed for renewal recently, can you suggest the process? I haven't received my response yet from my attorney. I need to apply once the 180 clock starts

You can easily apply by yourself. I did it 4 times so far. Checklist should be easily available with an internet search.

[rabp77]

Guys,

Have couple questions:

1. What are the documents needed for EAD+AP Combo card renewal?
2. Can I file myself for renewal, or I need to file through the attorney?

I checked the fee calculator, it came out to be zero. If anybody has filed for renewal recently, can you suggest the process? I haven't received my response yet from my attorney. I need to apply once the 180 clock starts

Please find the instruction and forms at the website below
EAD : https://www.uscis.gov/i-765
AP : https://www.uscis.gov/i-131

i know lots of people who have done it on their own. Its pretty straight forward forms.

[idliman]

I had posted the sample cover letter and details on the EAD / AP forum. I also sent a PM. Sorry this forum does not allow word file attachments. So if you want word files, it has to be done outside.
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64827

[GC14Jan2010]

Yes you can apply by yourself and there is no cost for renewal. List is available online please cross check. But below list if it helps:
COVERING LETTER ON DOCUMENTS SUBMITTED
Name: <Your Name>
ALIEN #: A-#####
DOCUMENTS ATTACHED WITH FORM I-765
· Completed FORM I-765 for Employment Authorization
· 2 color photographs
· Copy of I-485 Receipt of filing - Pending employment-based Form I-485
· Copy of Previously approved EAD/AP mailer with barcodes
· Copy of previously approved EAD/AP Combo (front & back)
· Copy of ID pages in passport
· Form G1145 for E Notification
· Copy of latest I-94

[aquatican]

Hello Guys, My I-485 case status changed to 'Card is being Produced'.
Should i not say 'Case Approved'? a bit confused.

[monsieur]

Hello Guys, My I-485 case status changed to 'Card is being Produced'.
Should i not say 'Case Approved'? a bit confused.

Congrats and nope case approved is sometimes comes only for fleeting moments and then case status goes to Card is being produced. Enjoy your freedom on July 4th arty:

[aquatican]

o good thank you! Freedom after 11 years . Better late than never.

[calking1975]

o good thank you! Freedom after 11 years . Better late than never.

Congratulations...

I am waiting...

12 years in GC line.
..8 years even to file I-485.
...missed by 2 months in 2012 to file I-485.
...False hope in 2015, with VB advanced to 2011 for EB2-I and rolled back.
....from there every year dates going backwards...
Hoping this year or next year atleast to file I-485.

PD: 25-Jun-2010