EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[karanjohar]

Hello Spectator,

My question is also related to the EB visa carry over. Is it possible for EB visas to be used for the next FY. If yes, which part of INA is this mentioned?

[usvisas]

FB SOs are applied next fiscal. That's why I'm confused. Last year we received 16K FB SO?? Is he including those 16K within the 25K visas that he says may be wasted. If that's the case can the C/F those 16K to the following fiscal too? I'm confused!

I am reading that as 25K total EB visas out of 156,500 that is the numeric limitation set for 2020.

[EB32010]

I hope CO moves DF dates well ahead beginning of next FY. That way he can avoid wastage of visas. Will he do that?

[Zenzone]

I am reading that as 25K total EB visas out of 156,500 that is the numeric limitation set for 2020.

Yes. But did he imply that some of those 25K will be carried over to next fiscal?

[rocketfast]

It is such bullshit that CO moves EB1-I fast but not EB2-I. It looks like he is forced to pick and choose some categories to move fast and he picked EB1-I as his blue eyed son.

[Zenzone]

It is such bullshit that CO moves EB1-I fast but not EB2-I. It looks like he is forced to pick and choose some categories to move fast and he picked EB1-I as his blue eyed son.

Let's give him till end of this fiscal....Moving EB2 by a month is at least something.

[usvisas]

FB SOs are applied next fiscal. That's why I'm confused. Last year we received 16K FB SO?? Is he including those 16K within the 25K visas that he says may be wasted. If that's the case can the C/F those 16K to the following fiscal too? I'm confused!

And are EB spillovers applied in the same fiscal towards the end of that fiscal?

[Zenzone]

And are EB spillovers applied in the same fiscal towards the end of that fiscal?

I don't think that's codified (if I'm not wrong).

[qesehmk]

Respectfully Q, I do not buy your theory that he is nudging and shaming USCIS. Nor do I buy the argument that DOS is acting professionally. The duty of DOS is to allocate visas and move PDs based on demand. We are in the last quarter with SO fully eligible. The moment he does not see demand, he has to keep moving the dates and make it Current. How many kids will be prevented from aging out if dates are Current? How many people will avoid refiling PERM and redoing the process due to loss of job? People can take advantage of 180-day AC21 provisions.

DOS / CO’s duty is interpreting the INA and act accordingly. He has to move the dates per INA guidelines. Whether USCIS allocates GCs is a separate problem. It is not his job to give paragraphs of excuses blaming a different agency for not moving PDs (and not doing his job duties). Why can’t he move the PDs and let USCIS pickup the low hanging fruit to reduce the wastage of GCs. Many people here will be happy with getting an EAD/AP.

The short answer is - CO has done that in the past and USCIS refused to honor the dates. In that showdown DOS lost. So CO learnt his lesson and will only move dates in coordination with DHS.

CO allocates visa only AFTER DHS has requested a visa for an application. Get it?

That is my understanding. But if you have better understanding I'd be happy to learn.

[1312011_eb2I]

I don't think CO anywhere mentioned 25K visas will be wasted, he said "unused" which (as per my understanding) would move to FB, since FB will already SO 60K to EB (to become 200K), eventually, these 25K will add up to the same SO, Total SO to EB will be ~60K +25K = 85K. I still expect to see the EB2 crawling in next few VB and obviously I don't hope it will go beyond May 2010 in the next 4-5 years ( happy to hear if I am wrong).

[NJMavarick]

Yes. But did he imply that some of those 25K will be carried over to next fiscal?

He is saying "I am going to waste 25K visas but do not worry as next year we will have 60K additional FB visas available for EB".

It is clear, he has not applied the SO and is moving the dates based on the mandated yearly quota of 2806. I see this as an ominous sign. I am going to say this, if we are expecting a 6 months movement next year based on SO and logic, he will maybe only move 3 months. High probability that visas will be wasted next year and we will be rotting waiting for our dates to be current. It does not matter who is at fault, DOS / USCIS, we will be the losers.

[GC-Immigrant]

Can we setup Webinar session with CO like Chinese EB5 investors?

[eaglenow]

My question is why is there a reduced capacity to begin with? The furlough is only in August. Sure, interviews and biometrics cannot be done. But with so many backlogged cases almost ready for approval, why is the processing slow? Are they working from home or just getting paid without the ability to work?

The comments show the level of insentivity to the issues. Do they realize 25000 wasted numbers is almost 9 years of country capped numbers? Spillover next year must be in addition to not wasting visas.

This is like saying, I will burn away this months salary because I will get paid next month as well. If the capacity constraint is so severe, did they not see this earlier and is now apparent?

I can’t believe they are so nonchalant about wasting 25k visas.

At least if this would be used by FB, it may be ok, but even if 140k or zero visas spilled over to FB, the limit for FB will always be 226k. So these numbers are essentially down the drain.

[Zenzone]

He is saying "I am going to waste 25K visas but do not worry as next year we will have 60K additional FB visas available for EB".

It is clear, he has not applied the SO and is moving the dates based on the mandated yearly quota of 2806. I see this as an ominous sign. I am going to say this, if we are expecting a 6 months movement next year based on SO and logic, he will maybe only move 3 months. High probability that visas will be wasted next year and we will be rotting waiting for our dates to be current. It does not matter who is at fault, DOS / USCIS, we will be the losers.

I read it again. I don't think its clear to me. I understand your interpretation but its pretty unclear.

[Zenzone]

He is saying "I am going to waste 25K visas but do not worry as next year we will have 60K additional FB visas available for EB".

It is clear, he has not applied the SO and is moving the dates based on the mandated yearly quota of 2806. I see this as an ominous sign. I am going to say this, if we are expecting a 6 months movement next year based on SO and logic, he will maybe only move 3 months. High probability that visas will be wasted next year and we will be rotting waiting for our dates to be current. It does not matter who is at fault, DOS / USCIS, we will be the losers.

Yes. That's the risk here. We still have 2 more months lets see how many above the standard 2806 he is going this year by using some SO atleast.

[redtogreen]

My question is why is there a reduced capacity to begin with? The furlough is only in August. Sure, interviews and biometrics cannot be done. But with so many backlogged cases almost ready for approval, why is the processing slow? Are they working from home or just getting paid without the ability to work?

The comments show the level of insentivity to the issues. Do they realize 25000 wasted numbers is almost 9 years of country capped numbers? Spillover next year must be in addition to not wasting visas.

This is like saying, I will burn away this months salary because I will get paid next month as well. If the capacity constraint is so severe, did they not see this earlier and is now apparent?

I can’t believe they are so nonchalant about wasting 25k visas.

At least if this would be used by FB, it may be ok, but even if 140k or zero visas spilled over to FB, the limit for FB will always be 226k. So these numbers are essentially down the drain.

How different is it right now than a usual processing year wherein they have been allocating same number of visas if not more?! What should be adding to the productivity instead are lack of interview related tasks, no extensive application processing, work from home privileges, furlough not announced officially...!!They should have all the time to process those backlogged cases that CO himself clarified are low hanging fruits!!
The resource crunch theory is not sitting well with me given the current circumstances.We are the scapegoats unfortunately in the grand scheme of things.

[idliman]

The short answer is - CO has done that in the past and USCIS refused to honor the dates. In that showdown DOS lost. So CO learnt his lesson and will only move dates in coordination with DHS.

CO allocates visa only AFTER DHS has requested a visa for an application. Get it?

That is my understanding. But if you have better understanding I'd be happy to learn.

I understand that your opinions are based on past observations on how CO had acted. I started getting into this game only when my coworkers got GCs and other 2009’ers got stuck.

I was afraid that they will come up with an excuse to waste visas a few months back. When the moment arrived, I got emotional and disappointed. When you believe that you are close to completing the race and rules people suddenly ask you run another few loop’s around the track, it is exhausting.

I think, it would be better for everyone to have a hands-off approach. No amount of predictions and number crunching is going to help. Someone else decides what to do with PDs. Now, I am not even sure whether EB2I / EB3I PDs will move in the next few months. Is it going to be days movement because they don’t have capacity or is it going to be weeks or months?

All EB2I / EB3I folks be mentally prepared for a few years even if you are in 2009 or starting 2010 timeframe. Peace.

[monsieur]

we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.

What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....

Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)

Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.

[qesehmk]

I understand that your opinions are based on past observations on how CO had acted. I started getting into this game only when my coworkers got GCs and other 2009’ers got stuck.

I was afraid that they will come up with an excuse to waste visas a few months back. When the moment arrived, I got emotional and disappointed. When you believe that you are close to completing the race and rules people suddenly ask you run another few loop’s around the track, it is exhausting.

I think, it would be better for everyone to have a hands-off approach. No amount of predictions and number crunching is going to help. Someone else decides what to do with PDs. Now, I am not even sure whether EB2I / EB3I PDs will move in the next few months. Is it going to be days movement because they don’t have capacity or is it going to be weeks or months?

All EB2I / EB3I folks be mentally prepared for a few years even if you are in 2009 or starting 2010 timeframe. Peace.

It is extremely exhausting mentally and otherwise. I had said this a couple of months back that the numbers will be there but whether they will be used is upto the administration. Both DOS and DHS secretaries are political appointees. The grinch in the white house is their ultimate mafia boss. So I won't venture to predict what's going to happen.

But as per whether backlogged folks can do anything - well why not?? Gather a group of at least a 1000 backlogged folks and go ahead to DHS and DOS headquarters in DC in person to give a joint plea to DOS and DHS to NOT waste visas. I think that will actually work believe it or not. Also copy congress and senate on that.

p.s. - So many backlogged folks work in Boston-DC corridor. You should be able to devote one day of travel for your own sake. Just do it.

[laksinu800]

One thing I fail to understand .. USCIS needs $$ to stop the layoffs. 25k visas are available so move the dates and get $$ and pay the salaries, so all are happy.. why is this not possible

[excalibur123]

we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.

What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....

Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)

Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.

I understand about EB-1 being given preference, though I hope it is based on actual demand and not something else.

But I am very surprised there was a CO - EB5 meeting. Why it there none for rest of EBs? I don't think this is driven by money power or anything like that as government doesn't work on that basis. May be there is a process (even if it's a paid one) which we are not aware of.

[Ind2009]

I can vouch for the USCIS resource shortage.
Its been 8 days since my case approved but there is no update about card being produced and mailed.
We are seeing this same for other users in both GC and EAD applications where cases have been approved but no updates about card being produced since last week.

However, I do see some hope about improvement in resource availability going forward to process pending cases after I got the below update from USCIS.

USCIS Provides Greater Flexibility in Processing Work Authorization Requests for Asylum Applicants

WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services today announced a regulatory change to provide greater flexibility in the processing of initial employment authorization documents (commonly called EADs) for asylum applicants by removing the burdensome and agency-imposed 30-day time frame. The final rule becomes effective on Aug. 21.

This change provides USCIS sufficient time to receive, screen and process applications and to address national security and fraud concerns, maintain technological advances in identity verification and further deter those who may attempt to defraud the legal immigration system. It also gives the agency flexibility to shift limited adjudicator resources as needed. In the past, the agency has been forced to divert resources away from other types of benefit requests to meet the 30-day time frame.

The 30-day time frame was implemented by regulation more than 20 years ago. Since then, filings of asylum applications have spiked and USCIS has developed additional critical background screening and vetting procedures to reduce fraud and identify threats to national security and public safety.

“Removing this self-imposed internal processing time frame gives USCIS the operational flexibility to conduct the kind of systematic vetting and identity verification procedures the public expects from an agency charged with protecting national security,” said USCIS Deputy Director for Policy Joseph Edlow. “A key priority for USCIS is to safeguard the integrity of our nation’s legal immigration system from those who seek to exploit or abuse it. This change will reduce opportunities for fraud and protect the security-related processes we undertake for each employment authorization application, thereby increasing the integrity of immigration benefits.”

The rule also removes the requirement that asylum applicants submit their work authorization renewal requests to USCIS 90 days before the expiration of their current employment authorization. This change reduces confusion and clarifies that asylum applicants can file their renewal work authorization applications up to 180 days before the expiration date, minimizing potential gaps in employment authorization.

For more information, read the final rule published in the Federal Register on June 22.

[monsieur]

How different is it right now than a usual processing year wherein they have been allocating same number of visas if not more?! What should be adding to the productivity instead are lack of interview related tasks, no extensive application processing, work from home privileges, furlough not announced officially...!!They should have all the time to process those backlogged cases that CO himself clarified are low hanging fruits!!
The resource crunch theory is not sitting well with me given the current circumstances.We are the scapegoats unfortunately in the grand scheme of things.

COVID shutdown came all of sudden, no one was expecting country wide shutdowns. Every company/offices are re-orienting/re-adjusting on fly with WFH situation. Considering these are govt funded so inefficiency compared to pvt sector will be high. On top we have administration which wants to delay/deny visa and this situation is giving them excuse.

My hope is there is new admin later this year and they reverse these restrictive policies. But pragmatic in me knows, it will take time to implement such immi friendly policies same as this admin took 2 yrs to reach to this point.

[Zenzone]

I understand that your opinions are based on past observations on how CO had acted. I started getting into this game only when my coworkers got GCs and other 2009’ers got stuck.

I was afraid that they will come up with an excuse to waste visas a few months back. When the moment arrived, I got emotional and disappointed. When you believe that you are close to completing the race and rules people suddenly ask you run another few loop’s around the track, it is exhausting.

I think, it would be better for everyone to have a hands-off approach. No amount of predictions and number crunching is going to help. Someone else decides what to do with PDs. Now, I am not even sure whether EB2I / EB3I PDs will move in the next few months. Is it going to be days movement because they don’t have capacity or is it going to be weeks or months?

All EB2I / EB3I folks be mentally prepared for a few years even if you are in 2009 or starting 2010 timeframe. Peace.

I understand your frustration. I do believe that next two bulletins will bring faster movement for EB2I. With one month movement in this bulletin CO has begun testing the waters. Also, its been LONG since I stopped asking how come all 2008ers and many 2009ers are even citizens and we are still having these conversations. I don't think it brings any positivity by hangin on to the "Why me" thinking. Didn't mean to be preachy at the same time couldn't hold myself back from saying this. Please take it or leave it. Good Luck!

[Zenzone]

we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.

What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....

Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)

Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.

Second that. Next two bulletins will tell us his true intentions though. If he had no intent to give it to EBI I don't think the current advancements could have even been possible.