Thanks Spec for sharing this.Originally Posted by Spectator
"Fiscal 2021 should be a very good year under the current INA guidelines for visa availability for employment applicants.” is important statement.
20K additional visas may or may not mean much for EB-I depending upon demand for other countries.
Incredibly encouraging words from CO - particularly as it relates to visa availability next year based on unused FB visas this year.
One must understand that the unused FB visas go to EB and vice versa. This is Law. There is no getting around that. However slowing down immigration execution is an administrative thing. And let's hope the administration doesn't do that.
If we see good EB backlogged movement this year itself (based on unused EB CP numbers) then we have reason to believe that next year will be extremely good. Lets keep watch how EB moves this year.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Yes. Hoping that ROW demand takes time to pick up. Also, is there a chance that CO will apply unused FB SO visas early next fiscal...Say Oct-Dec (Q1)? DOn't know if there is anything in the statute that prevents him from doing it or if there has been any precedence.
Getting 200K SO to begin with is very much up in the air. Key caveat is whether the FB consular GC ban is extended to begin with.
I would think he would want to move the filing dates in Q1 next fiscal and move the FAD throughout the year. Given his statement, I am now expecting a spill over of 80K or more. The ban is most likely to get extended.
EB1I will be current for sure and might provide some vertical SO to EB2. EB2I is poised to gain quite a bit if the EB2ROW stays current which it most likely will. This is great new. Now, lets hope CO does not go too conservative and applies the SO and moves the dates.
Yes. Looking at the demand data for EB2 and EB3 if 100K SO materializes, we might clear mid 2010 for EB2 and entire 2010 for EB3. If that happens downgrades might gain steam which is another aspect to watch. I still believe in the long term EB2 and EB3 will move in tandem.
To your point of 100K SO, then EB2I would get in excess of 30K visas which would easily cover 2010. EB3I would also get around 20K (leaving the rest to ROW to get current) That is 50K combined. The dates easily should be in 2011 if that materializes.
I don’t think CO mentions 100K spillover. I think his expectation is 200K visas for next year(instead of 140K ). Which means 60K extra visas across the categories. As Q mentioned processing time will play important role. Otherwise unused visas will go back to FB’s Fy2020 quota. I hope at least dates move as far as possible.
Thank you, @NJMavarick, @idliman and @vsivarama! You guys are awesome.
Agree. 100K SO scenario is clearly predicated on the ban being extended for another 60 days. Which is a big IF. Hopefully processing constraints also don't become a hiccup. But moving filing dates could be the least damaging option here which provides better visibility for CO also for years/months to come. Boy we have all been proved terribly wrong in the past. Cautious Optimism!
We understand that! CO mentioned at minimum 60K in the article. The ban is going to get extended. We only have 3 months left. How much of the balance ~134k FB visas will be utilized? Very few will be consumed by the folks already in the US and IF which is a big IF the consulates open and the ban does not get extended...maybe another 30K visas will be consumed. 100K SO is a possibility.
Yeh! CO is known to go conservative but he can move the Filing Dates and generate demand to get a clear picture and move FAD as he sees fit...lets hope the ADMIN does not needle around.
If there is 100k spillover, will EB2I be slated to receive ~ 28%, i.e. 28k? The old pending I-485 inventory from July 2018 shows ~ 18k, bulk of it until May 2010. Would it be reasonable to expect the dates will then clear out everyone until that time at least or maybe beyond?
Please predict where dates might reach if there is a 100k spillover?
Looks like USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates:
https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...isas-july-2020
Its been done in some prior posts right here right this morning
So what? They typically honor them eventually (Usually in Q1).
Before everyone gets their hopes up, sorry to be acting as a reality check here. We had close to 16k spillover visas this year from FB. All probably might go to waste. We are not even sure the entire 140K EB numbers will be applied this year. So a spillover of 60K - 120K visas is just a number when they may be potentially wasted. We have two choices in November either Trump wins, in which case Miller (He believes camp of the saints is a book that needs to be cherished by everyone. In case you do not know about the book it's about browning of western civilization specifically with Indians) will come up with innovative ways to waste numbers. If Biden wins, it's most likely he wins the Senate and House. In this case they can always include the current legislation they have in Heroes act for FB to get back the wasted visa numbers. Either way I do not think CO can do anything about it. Any constructive critique is welcome.
I sort of agree with this being in the queue for 10 years. USCIS/DoS uh... always finds a way, to keep prolonging the misery and this is through Dem/Rep governments. When you have Charlie already creating excuses like he is working from home and does not have access to the office database, what type of baloney is that when millions of people in IT are able to do so with something simple called a VPN? This is just systemic incompetence because of decades of hand wringing and politics from both sides. To be honest, there are just too many people trying to immigrate and not enough processing capacity or interest colored with politics of whatever current admin is in place and the makeup of the Senate and House. I just don't see any meaningful reform or progress to be made considering the fact that there is usually only a 2 year window when an admin has the WH and both chambers to get anything passed.
Your argument will be totally hold valid if we do not see any further movement in the next 2 VBs. If Miller wanted to needle around then EB1 dates would not have progressed. The SO will be available starting October and CO will have a couple of months to move the filing dates before the results of elections come in. IMO, any change to the availability of the SO has to happen before the next fiscal starts. HEROES act is dead.
The next stimulus is going to be coming late July and I do not think Rs will agree considering the sole purpose of the ban was to exclude FB visas. Why agree to include them now?
Having said that, the dates next year will move maybe 3 months instead of 6 (hypothetically speaking) but there will be movement.
Another thing CO , did not consider HEROS bill/act, if this passed in next 2-3 months, there will be no spill over from FB to EB, the total SO visas will be forwarded to 2021 and 2022.
I like the balancing view here. Not sure how they can pass a bill after the fiscal year is over when INA requires to move unused visas by the end of the fiscal. Also, remember in senate there will be a need to have a filibuster proof majority for Dems to pass any legislation without bi-partisan support. Heroes Act is clearly not bi-partisan at this moment. Even if there is a blue wave (as it appears today) there is no chance dems. are going to get 60 seats in the Senate to avoid filibuster by any GOP senator on legislations. As far as GOP retaining the WH, its actually status quo in my mind. To me processing ability of USCIS is a bigger concern given its financial crunch and the lingering pandemic.
Not a chance that Heros Act is getting passed in its current form. Its dead on arrival in the Senate. Won't even be taken up for voting.
Agree. I think generally speaking after elections are over some heightened hysteria we are seeing this year is going to give way to some sort of return to normalcy which could help things overall. Agencies may start moving back to doing what they are meant to do - provide servicing and immigration benefits adjudication.
We have another 3 months time, we will get some kind of Stimulus bill, which both parties and public need.
Dems will include this provision, it will be hidden some where in the bill and get it passed.
There are currently 5 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 5 guests)
Posting Permissions
