EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Zenzone]

It's legally challenge able ONLY if there is a legal basis for the challenge. Being unreasonable does not constitute legal basis. Not to say there may not be a basis. If somebody knows better please share.

Alright sir. So you say. I park it here.

[qesehmk]

Alright sir. So you say. I park it here.

I am not a lawyer. So take it with a pinch of salt. I am saying I do not know what legal basis there may be to challenge this.

[rocketfast]

Tanvi.m, who is the author of the article tweeted that the following cases will continue to be looked at:

1) case already distributed to adjudicator
2) continuations
3) case related to medical provider
4) National Benefits Center work on adjustment
5) very old cases
6) Liberian Refugee Immigration Fairness (LRIF) I-485s
7) identified national security concerns
8) Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate cases
9) ELIS beta cases
10) age outs
11) DV cases
12) mandamus and other litigation cases
13) detailed immigrants
14) military families

For EB2-I backlogged candidates, do they belong to 4? If so, the dates may move next bulletin. In trackitt, I also saw a message about interviews getting scheduled again for a very few people. So this could go either way - a lot of wasted visas or a small windfall for EB-Is.

[excalibur123]

Its not that there is ZERO GC getting issued. I have my own friends and colleagues who have gotten recently.

I agree on this.

How many of those got the approval after their PD becoming current in June bulletin?

We have at least one case in this forum who intimated that he received approval on 06/12.

[Ind2009]

I agree on this.

How many of those got the approval after their PD becoming current in June bulletin?

We have at least one case in this forum who intimated that he received approval on 06/12.

I might be the one you are referring to. My PD became current in June 2020 and I got my approval email/text on 6/12 and this afternoon 6/15, I received the 485 approval notice in USPS mail. They have not yet mailed the card. So hopefully that should be done in the next couple of days.
Also note, I never created any SR nor approached any senator / congressman nor called USCIS service center, nor jumped lines between EB-2, EB-3 to expedite my case during my entire journey.
So please don't go by the rumours. Unless there is something coming out as a rule or a law or another EO, cases will continue to be processed.
Have faith. Good luck.

[abcx13]

According to Siskind, the USCIS memo was incorrectly / mistakenly filed and was quickly reversed / taken down / not implemented.

[excalibur123]

I might be the one you are referring to. My PD became current in June 2020 and I got my approval email/text on 6/12 and this afternoon 6/15, I received the 485 approval notice in USPS mail. They have not yet mailed the card. So hopefully that should be done in the next couple of days.
Also note, I never created any SR nor approached any senator / congressman nor called USCIS service center, nor jumped lines between EB-2, EB-3 to expedite my case during my entire journey.
So please don't go by the rumours. Unless there is something coming out as a rule or a law or another EO, cases will continue to be processed.
Have faith. Good luck.

Thanks for replying. We are just assessing the situation. I wasn’t implying anything in my post about your case buddy. Didn’t state your id because - well now you should be relaxing on a beach, and shouldn’t be dragged here.

[Ind2009]

Thanks for replying. We are just assessing the situation. I wasn’t implying anything in my post about your case buddy. Didn’t state your id because - well now you should be relaxing on a beach, and shouldn’t be dragged here.

Thank you, but no plans for any beach trips or any travel in the immediate future.
For me, honestly the only thing that a GC would do is the remove the tensions of H1B stamping and extensions. I had mentioned earlier about going 6 times for H1B stampings but I did not mention the last extension which was filed in end of 2017 well before I was eligible to file my 485 and my extension was approved on the 240th day after my I-94 expiry. Those are the absolute tension filled days when there were rejections all over. I pray the situation gets better for our friends who are still in line.
I would definitely like to see a rule similar to H-4 EAD where all folks who have the i-140 approved get an EAD instead of going through H1B torture. Then there should not be so much worry even if the GC takes its time.

[qesehmk]

Tanvi.m, who is the author of the article tweeted that the following cases will continue to be looked at:

1) case already distributed to adjudicator
2) continuations
3) case related to medical provider
4) National Benefits Center work on adjustment
5) very old cases
6) Liberian Refugee Immigration Fairness (LRIF) I-485s
7) identified national security concerns
8) Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate cases
9) ELIS beta cases
10) age outs
11) DV cases
12) mandamus and other litigation cases
13) detailed immigrants
14) military families

For EB2-I backlogged candidates, do they belong to 4? If so, the dates may move next bulletin. In trackitt, I also saw a message about interviews getting scheduled again for a very few people. So this could go either way - a lot of wasted visas or a small windfall for EB-Is.

#5 sounds good for EB-I backlog. If so - then I don't see how visas can go waste.

[excalibur123]

#5 sounds good for EB-I backlog. If so - then I don't see how visas can go waste.

How is any of things about ‘old cases’ or ‘pre-adjudicated cases’ realistic in absence of actual VB movement?

[qesehmk]

How is any of things about ‘old cases’ or ‘pre-adjudicated cases’ realistic in absence of actual VB movement?

That is correct. VB is the proof of the pudding.

[harinatham14]

July VB is Out
EB2-I - 8th July 2009 (+ 26 Days)
EB3-I - 1st June 2009 (+ 61 Days)

[AceMan]

July VB is Out
EB2-I - 8th July 2009 (+ 26 Days)
EB3-I - 1st June 2009 (+ 61 Days)

4 weeks movement of Eb2 I in a long long time.

[NJMavarick]

4 weeks movement of Eb2 I in a long long time.

True! I was certainly expecting 2-3 months movement. The demand is known and if the FB spill over was available to EB2I then it should have moved further. We still have 2 bulletins left and I expect another month or 2 movement at the very least. CO is being conservative for some reason and we may never know why!

Is CO just going by the yearly quota? The date for the first October FY 2020 bulletin was May 2009 and we are now at July 2009. It seems he just accounted for the mandated 2800~ visas for EB2I. Where is the spill over?

[Ind2009]

July VB is Out
EB2-I - 8th July 2009 (+ 26 Days)
EB3-I - 1st June 2009 (+ 61 Days)

EB1-I - 08 MAY 2017 - That is almost 11 months, which is certainly a positive sign.
If EB1 is able to get current in the next couple of months. It should benefit EB2-I to bring down the wait time.

[Auser123]

True! I was certainly expecting 2-3 months movement. The demand is known and if the FB spill over was available to EB2I then it should have moved further. We still have 2 bulletins left and I expect another month or 2 movement at the very least. CO is being conservative for some reason and we may never know why!

Is CO just going by the yearly quota? The date for the first October FY 2020 bulletin was May 2009 and we are now at July 2009. It seems he just accounted for the mandated 2800~ visas for EB2I. Where is the spill over?

Do you think there will be further movement in EB3 I for this Fiscal year?

[NJMavarick]

EB1-I - 08 MAY 2017 - That is almost 11 months, which is certainly a positive sign.
If EB1 is able to get current in the next couple of months. It should benefit EB2-I to bring down the wait time.

I do not think EB1I will get current this fiscal. Is there a chance starting next fiscal? Absolutely, and when that happens, EB2I will benefit. I still see scope of couple of months movement in EB2I this fiscal. EB3I may move in tandem but unlike EB2I, EB3I demand is only known by CO so hard to predict.

The check-in with Charlie will provide some more insight.

[imdeng]

Movement in Dates for Filing as well.

EB2I is now 15AUG09 (from 01JUL09)
EB1I is now 01AUG17 (from 15MAR17)

[Zenzone]

Movement in Dates for Filing as well.

EB2I is now 15AUG09 (from 01JUL09)
EB1I is now 01AUG17 (from 15MAR17)

This is good news. I think in the last two months date should further advance. Bigger FO SO to EB for next fiscal is applied in summer of 2021? Am I right here?

[AceMan]

True! I was certainly expecting 2-3 months movement. The demand is known and if the FB spill over was available to EB2I then it should have moved further. We still have 2 bulletins left and I expect another month or 2 movement at the very least. CO is being conservative for some reason and we may never know why!

Is CO just going by the yearly quota? The date for the first October FY 2020 bulletin was May 2009 and we are now at July 2009. It seems he just accounted for the mandated 2800~ visas for EB2I. Where is the spill over?

Unfortunately the numbers will be skewed if we still continue to have different filing date for both Eb2 and Eb3I. I feel both Eb2 and 3 I should have an identical long filing date of 12/31/2011 for October 2020, FY 2021. That is the only way to prevent porting, which is nothing but a new petition with an old date.

[NJMavarick]

This is good news. I think in the last two months date should further advance. Bigger FO SO to EB for next fiscal is applied in summer of 2021? Am I right here?

IMO, the filing dates will advance in anticipation of the spill over and it should happen in Q1 2021 fiscal year (i.e. Oct to Dec 2020). Once the demand and supply is known the FAD will keep moving. Typically, filing dates are accepted in Q1 of fiscal year.

[Zenzone]

Unfortunately the numbers will be skewed if we still continue to have different filing date for both Eb2 and Eb3I. I feel both Eb2 and 3 I should have an identical long filing date of 12/31/2011 for October 2020, FY 2021. That is the only way to prevent porting, which is nothing but a new petition with an old date.

Fair point! That was in part the point of my question on FB SO timing also. When there would be merit in moving the filing dates consequently to generate adequate demand from the filers.

[NJMavarick]

Unfortunately the numbers will be skewed if we still continue to have different filing date for both Eb2 and Eb3I. I feel both Eb2 and 3 I should have an identical long filing date of 12/31/2011 for October 2020, FY 2021. That is the only way to prevent porting, which is nothing but a new petition with an old date.

While I agree with you, if the expected spill over is made available and applied, there should not be a considerable gap between the 2 dates. This is considering EB2ROW is current and EB3I will have low demand and EB3ROW is still not current. ROW will consume some amount of visas before horizontal spill over happens. CO always has been conservative and realizes the possibility of porting.

[AceMan]

While I agree with you, if the expected spill over is made available and applied, there should not be a considerable gap between the 2 dates. This is considering EB2ROW is current and EB3I will have low demand and EB3ROW is still not current. ROW will consume some amount of visas before horizontal spill over happens. CO always has been conservative and realizes the possibility of porting.

There is a reason why the filing date was created in 2015. It makes sense to give some long days for both Eb2 and Eb3 India since both have near final dates.

Moving the filing days differently will only enable the applicants to apply for both queues and delays the progress of both queues. I am still not sure why USCIS/DOS cannot use the A number to filter out duplicate 140 and move the dates accordingly.

Advancement of the dates to 01/01/2012 will ensure people up until 2011 end can apply without the need for changing queues. They can hold the dates for 6-9 months.

[jimmys]

Do you think there will be further movement in EB3 I for this Fiscal year?

EB-3 ROW is not current and it keeps on moving. So, no horizontal SO expected to EB-3 I. I'm pleasantly surprised even it moved up to Jun 1,2009. With consulates re-opening slowly in the coming months, the probability of dates moving is much less IMO.