How much could be not so drastic movement? by few days/weeks/months?Originally Posted by NJMavarick
How much could be not so drastic movement? by few days/weeks/months?
Here is my ballpark in July Bulletin EB2I can move up to June 21 or July 1st and EB3 can move up to June 1st or can catch up with EB2.
Heather Sivaraman's website had published the Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim posted to AILA on May 29, 2020. The wording is more condensed. I wonder whether they omitted the descriptive paragraph that we have been discussing above.
It clearly states that as there is a lot of pre-adjudicated demand in EB3, all visas will be used. Nothing is mentioned for EB2. I think as EB2-ROW is current, good likelihood of some horizontal spillover to EB2I/C. However, I am sure CO is waiting to see more data before spilling the beans. So we have to wait and watch EB2I till his next check-in. Descriptions about PDs have been deleted below.
Employment-based Preference Categories:
EB-1:
Due to the lack of EB-1 demand and the likelihood of otherwise unused numbers becoming available from the EB-5 category, Oppenheim predicts that EB-1 (ROW in context) will remain current through the end of the fiscal year. In June, the final action date for EB-1 China advanced one month from July 15, 2017, to August 15, 2017. Also, EB-1 India jumped forward ten months from August 1, 2015, to June 8, 2016.
EB-2:
EB-2 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines, and Vietnam), remains current as well in June. Additionally, EB-2 China advanced one month from October 1, 2015, and EB-2 India advanced ten days from June 2, 2009 to June 12, 2009.
EB-3:
Like EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 Worldwide. This makes it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year.
EB-4:
EB-4 Worldwide (including China, India, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current while EB-4 El Salvador Guatemala and Honduras advanced four months from August 15, 2016, to December 15, 2016. The advancement of EB-4 Mexico slowed down in June, and advanced from May 1, 2018 to June 8, 2018. According to Oppenheim, it is possible that these dates will hold into July 2020.
EB-5:
Charlie expects EB-5 India to become current by August 2020. If EB-5 India does become current by August 2020, it is possible that otherwise unused numbers might go to EB-5 Vietnam allowing that category to advance more rapidly.
Source
A question for EB3 ROw, if all visas reached limit, next fiscal year will allocate new quota and become current in Oct 2020?
Simply put, waiving off interviews for EB3 ROW created enough demand so EB3-I doesn't get any horizontal spillover. EB-3 India retrogression on the cards when the consulates reopen?
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Yes. Historically, Mr. CO had moved EB3-ROW FA to be current for the first few months of visa allocation year before retrogressing the dates later in the year. Please note that year 2020 allocations begin in Oct of 2019.
Year 2020 – Oct to Feb
Year 2019 – Oct to Jul
Year 2018 – Oct to Aug
So you can assume that he will make EB3-ROW current in October 2020 based on past trend.
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That is interesting! I never observed that. This can bode well for the potential spill over as the total for EB2I+EB3I could be a large number if EB3-ROW is current. EB3 Philippines typically is also backlogged. Still, EB3I is destined to get a decent allocation come next fiscal.
Murthy Law Firm published June 2020 Visa Bulletin Check-In
https://www.murthy.com/2020/06/05/ju...etin-check-in/
It has no EB3 details what we discussed above. In fact, FY20 limits may not be reached due to limited USCIS capacity and remaining visa numbers will be lost.
Why would the SO not happen? Can the visa numbers not be assigned to adjudicated applications where it's just some formal paperwork transactions pending? Well, surprising nobody in the check-in meeting asks such basic questions to CO!! Maybe they don't want to! Is it even a meeting btw or some kind of broadcast? So here is the new excuse when we think we have seen it all... resource crunch, capacity limitation!! Throwing all reasonable predictions off track!
This has happened many a times over the years. Things seem logical and all hopes go up to be quashed by one reason or another. You are very correct in concluding that the checkin is more like a broadcast [one-way] - It sure does look so.
Like Q and many others keep saying - Better to forget and keep moving on with the life [hard but better to get used to....].
What is the procedure to attend this meeting on behalf of backlogged applicants?
Hi,
I am maintaining my EB3 GC EAD and H1 both with same employer , my PD is 07/09/09. Now Prime vendor(Typical Desi services company) to Client is asking me to convert to FT or loose the contract in this Covid-19 situation. Though I can transfers my EAD and H1 safely, I am thinking if it is worth to risk and change the employer. My GC Interview got cancelled due to Pandemic in April.
How long do you think it may take for my date to be current?
You did not provide any information about whether you filed I485, 180 days before or not. That makes you eligible for AC21 job portability provisions. I assume that you have crossed the 180-day AC21 clock.
You are 100 days from being current in EB3I. You already have an EAD, so I would assume that you have a valid medical till (Oct or Nov of 2020). Whatever happens, I think you should definitely be current in Oct 2020 or 4 months from now. From that time, GC approval takes few days to a few months. Let’s say 2 months. So, you should have GC in hand by Dec 2020. People here can discuss predictions or other anticipated PD movement. However, in the worst case will you be able to hold on till Dec 2020?
Now in the best-case scenario, you may be current in the next 1 to 3 bulletins. Any backlogged person waiting for 10+ years and thinking that they are very close to the finish line will find it difficult to make a decision. It’s a tough situation to be in. Kindly prepare yourself assuming that you will not be getting GC immediately. That will save you from disappointment.
No one including Mr. CO can pre-announce the PD movement till it happens. A call from Trump admin can make anything happen in a Visa bulletin. Now others in the forum might be able to provide better estimates of PD movement. If you have opened a separate thread for this topic, may be others will chime in with their own view.
If you decide to take FT position, please make sure that the new company will fully support you in H1B, AC21, job classification, I485J and so on. Hope this helps. Good Luck.
Also be aware of I485 interview waiver. By guesstimate only about 1 in 6 or 7 got COVID interview waivers. As USCIS offices are now open, the interview waiver might decrease, you will be asked to come in for an interview. So factor this also in your decision.
Thanks @Idliman. Yes I filed I-485 and got my EAD. I am also looking at 6-12 months timeframe to get my GC to be current based on past date movemens.
If your employer is okay with you joining the middle vendor, go ahead and join. Your date could become current anytime in the next 6 months or so. When you're called for the interview, get the 485-J from your new employer to the interview. Otherwise, wait for an RFE from USCIS to file the 485-J.
I am on the same boat as you. I did research on this topic as well. I found that the denial rate of GC due to someone changed jobs and filed 485J (might have slightly different roles) is very low. In other words, I found it safe to change jobs on EAD. As some other pointed already, even though the date seems so close, the time it takes to have GC at hand might make longer.
Here is my question. If EB2 ROW demand is high enough and if CO doesn't expect much movement before the fiscal end, how much of EB2 visa will be lost as such. This scenario will be huge next year if they go unused because of the bigger FB SO expected to EB next fiscal. Am I missing much here?
What happened to 5k visas from FB, based on the trend from last year at least Eb2i got very few spill over and eb3i got more than 2k visas, in that case Eb2&3 get more visas this time?
Expecting min 7k spill over to eb3 India , 3-4K for eb2 India.
Another question, are the people who filed I-485 prior to 2017, are exempt from visa interview right?
EB2-ROW being current does not indicate that there is prefect equilibrium between demand and supply. Over the last 3 years, EB2-ROW demand has been more than their yearly available supply by a month. Ballpark at the end of last year was that there was 15 months of EB2-ROW backlogged demand for 12 months of supply. And this year CO was talking about finally imposing a cutoff. Now he is saying he may not need to apply a cutoff. You still need to clear that extra 3 months of demand for any spillover to EB2-I
EB3-I cannot get a spillover when EB3-ROW is not current.
It depends, the last quarter allocation are different from previous 3 qtrs.
In case the whole EB2-RoW, which usually 100+ countries, have more demand , then it is possble, but most of the time 5-6 countries have more demand than supply, apart from India and China.
In case Mixico, Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea, etc have more than their annual quota,say 3-6 months backlog, they can have separate cut off dates, but this wont completely prevent spill over, spill over can happen from 90+ other countries, the final quarter allocation based on the backlogged PD.
Hi Experts,
One question about Interviews after I-485 filed.
I guess the interviews are applicable to only, those who filed I-485 AoS after 03/06/2017, as most of the EB2 India applicants filed AoS before this date, if any addtl spill over next few months, they can process without delay.
is that assumption correct?
Unknown what would happen with any potential I-485j and medical RFEs.
Not sure whether they would process without those. As a result they will waste visa nos.
Even though if/when applicants get the RFE, I'm sure most people will attempt to reply in appropriate time.
I dont think there is any surge of RFEs yet.
Rejection / RFE is the main factor and reluctant to take decision on ths. This convinces me reasonably with respect to GC EAD. I am planning transfer the H1 as well.
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