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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #6126
    Well the mysterious June Bulletin ! It almost materialized . The page appeared and then it disappeared. So curious what’s going on behind scenes? Was it too conservative or aggressive and needed to be pulled back?

  2. #6127
    Quote Originally Posted by aquatican View Post
    Well the mysterious June Bulletin ! It almost materialized . The page appeared and then it disappeared. So curious what’s going on behind scenes? Was it too conservative or aggressive and needed to be pulled back?

    Interesting though if they are unable to process or forced to process EB applications, I’m sure all EB folks can make up a significant chunk of money they need but have to wait until October to materialize. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/17/u...is-budget.html

  3. #6128
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by bloddy1 View Post
    Interesting though if they are unable to process or forced to process EB applications, I’m sure all EB folks can make up a significant chunk of money they need but have to wait until October to materialize. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/17/u...is-budget.html
    another related article : https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/18/polit...rus/index.html

  4. #6129
    Quote Originally Posted by aquatican View Post
    Well the mysterious June Bulletin ! It almost materialized . The page appeared and then it disappeared. So curious what’s going on behind scenes? Was it too conservative or aggressive and needed to be pulled back?
    What do you mean by materialize? Did you see any forward movement?

  5. #6130
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    Quote Originally Posted by aquatican View Post
    Well the mysterious June Bulletin ! It almost materialized . The page appeared and then it disappeared. So curious what’s going on behind scenes? Was it too conservative or aggressive and needed to be pulled back?
    Maintenance team might have been asked to hold-up till 22-May

    As per EO on 22-Apr,

    Sec. 6. Additional Measures.
    Within 30 days of the effective date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Labor and the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall review nonimmigrant programs and shall recommend to me other measures appropriate to stimulate the United States economy and ensure the prioritization, hiring, and employment of United States workers.

  6. #6131
    Quote Originally Posted by mahendra View Post
    Maintenance team might have been asked to hold-up till 22-May

    As per EO on 22-Apr,

    Sec. 6. Additional Measures.
    Within 30 days of the effective date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Labor and the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall review nonimmigrant programs and shall recommend to me other measures appropriate to stimulate the United States economy and ensure the prioritization, hiring, and employment of United States workers.
    Which maintenance team?? What this EO clause has to do with visa bulletin?

  7. #6132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    Which maintenance team??
    A technical team that works to create web pages for visa bulletin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    What this EO clause has to do with visa bulletin?
    Last visa bulletin was postponed and published after EO was signed. So, this visa bulletin might get published after period is over for possible additional measures.

  8. #6133
    Quote Originally Posted by mahendra View Post
    A technical team that works to create web pages for visa bulletin.


    Last visa bulletin was postponed and published after EO was signed. So, this visa bulletin might get published after period is over for possible additional measures.

    Thanks for the clarification.

  9. #6134
    Yesterday DOS released Monthly data, An Interesting point in the data is EB3 got 44 visas, and out of these 44, 43 were issued to Indians. All these 43 were issued outside the country in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Manama.

  10. #6135
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    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    Yesterday DOS released Monthly data, An Interesting point in the data is EB3 got 44 visas, and out of these 44, 43 were issued to Indians. All these 43 were issued outside the country in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Manama.
    I'm so worried about the EB-3 movement should the consulates reopen. EB-3 India consular demand is omnipresent.

  11. #6136
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    I'm so worried about the EB-3 movement should the consulates reopen. EB-3 India consular demand is omnipresent.
    Good observation. My guess is the consulates will not open for at least 2 more months. Trump admin has found a way to slow down family immigration - there is no way they are going to let this opportunity go waste
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  12. #6137
    June VB is out... EB2 10 day movement ,.. and EB3 1 month... https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...june-2020.html

  13. #6138
    Quote Originally Posted by mrperfect View Post
    June VB is out... EB2 10 day movement ,.. and EB3 1 month... https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...june-2020.html
    YAY. I am finally current in June VB. Did medical and Supp-J in Sep 2018. Any suggestions from vetarans on raising SR etc.?

  14. #6139
    Congrats Paramjit ! So happy for you. 11 Years wait but who’s counting .

  15. #6140
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    You can look at Trackitt monthly approvals for all countries. Both in April and May, there have been approvals (around half of previous months). The numbers are small to make any statistical conclusions, but the general sense I get is that USCIS is working, but at a slower rate.

    But it is indeed possible that they will waste visas. That is why, this month's visa bulletin is so much interesting. CO will have a clear view on the usage. So he can move EB2-I and EB3-I a little more aggressively. But on the other hand, in the most recent checkin, he only thought of talking about EB1-I.
    Unfortunately, CO has become very conservative since the Nov 2014 bulletin fiasco. Since then he never took any aggressive steps, in fact he only played overly defensive as if not to hurt the feelings of someone. He would rather waste visas than move the PDs aggressively. He will not take any chances to upset the admin and anti Indians. Pre Nov 2014, his priority was not to waste any visas but move PDs anticipating future visa allocations. Now a days he dont try to venture into how future demand looks like and move PDs on that. He simply looks into how many visas were allocated in last month and what the monthly quota is. Based on that he conservatively moves the dates even if that results in visa wastage. I think he has been warned not to guess future GC allocations by uscis. He will simply waste visas this year in big numbers.

  16. #6141
    Congrats to all whose dates are current with Jun VB.
    Gurus,
    Unable to understand what the rationale of CO is for not moving the Dates For Filing especially for EB2 when the FA dates and DFF are just days apart.
    He will at least know and build the inventory if he keeps the EB3 and EB2 DFF same. My apologies if this has been already answered and is in archives.

  17. #6142
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrperfect View Post
    June VB is out... EB2 10 day movement ,.. and EB3 1 month... https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...june-2020.html
    Also, Eb1 moved 10 months

  18. #6143
    Quote Originally Posted by prabakarb View Post
    Also, Eb1 moved 10 months
    Just last week on the Murthy website (https://www.murthy.com/2020/05/13/up...predictions/): Mr. Oppenheim expects that the EB1 category for India will continue to advance fairly slowly for the rest of the fiscal year. Fiscal year 2020 ends September 30, 2020.

    So, bottom-line, no one knows.

  19. #6144
    What is also the rationale behind the very slow movement? Are we already on the verge of exhausting the entire quota of eb2i allocation for this year including the spillover from last year(FB)? Sorry, have not been following the monthly DOS statistics. Is anyone still optimistic and hoping for a more positive movement in the last quarter?

  20. #6145
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    Just last week on the Murthy website (https://www.murthy.com/2020/05/13/up...predictions/): Mr. Oppenheim expects that the EB1 category for India will continue to advance fairly slowly for the rest of the fiscal year. Fiscal year 2020 ends September 30, 2020.

    So, bottom-line, no one knows.
    None of EB1/2/3 India categories had their filing dates moved. Does it mean CO expect EB2-I not to cross Jul 1,2009 in FY 20?

  21. #6146
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    As per pending inventory of 2018, they already have almost 8000 pending 485 applications, assuming 4-5 thousands are processed from July 208 to till date.

    Question: EB based horizontal spillover will be applied in last quarter, means from July onwards. Correct?

  22. #6147
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    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    Gurus,
    Unable to understand what the rationale of CO is for not moving the Dates For Filing especially for EB2 when the FA dates and DFF are just days apart.
    He will at least know and build the inventory if he keeps the EB3 and EB2 DFF same. My apologies if this has been already answered and is in archives.
    CO already has a significant known Inventory beyond the current Cut Off Dates for both EB2-I and EB3-I as far as I can see.

    For EB2-I, the last published Inventory in July 2018 shows in excess of 10k pending cases for July 2009 through April 2010 PD.

    EB3-I has had one month when Filing Dates were current (and accepted by USCIS) up to 01APR10 and 6 months when Filing Dates were current (and accepted by USCIS) up to 01FEB10. At minimum, CO has a known EB3-I demand 10 months past the Cut Off Date published in the June VB.

    Given that situation, where he already has a good grasp of demand into the future, where is the urgency (for CO) to build it further at this point in time?

    My 2 cents anyway.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  23. #6148
    Thanks Spec for sharing your view and agree with your thoughts to certain extent.
    However that inventory is from 2018 and as we all including CO knows the EB3 drastic movement of cut off dates that happened later and people started reverse porting.
    Wondering if that number would still stand correct and his decision to not move the DFF is correct based on the stale data available. This hurts fewer population who missed the boat to file their AOS 8 years back.

  24. #6149
    Yoda
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    Quick Question

    From the description of the Visa Bulletin:

    A. (F2A) Spouses and Children of Permanent Residents: 77% of the overall second preference limitation, of which 75% are exempt from the per-country limit;


    How is F2A says 75% of the visa will be exempt from per country limit? Is this part of the Law if yes does not anyone when it was passed? How did they anticipate this need?

  25. #6150
    Guys,
    Longtime reader of this blog. Just wanted to share that we received card production email this morning. Thanks to everyone here. This blog has helped me over the years. All the best everyone.

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