EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[oraclept]

I have question. Trump has signed banning GCs through consular processing whoever is outside USA. Does it also affect EB GCs outside USA ? Like EB1, Eb3,4 Consular processing ?
On may 23, We will get to recommendations on banning entry for non immigrant visas.?

[GC-Immigrant]

The FB spill over will be applied starting October 2020 which is the start of the new fiscal year. Again, no one can accurately predict the exact spill over number but my guess would be between 50K - 100K. This again depends upon the IV visa ban being extended or not.

It is up-to to current admin to apply the spillover. There is no rule to say that they have to pass the numbers to EB.

Thanks for your analysis. FB spillover to EB catagory is congress mandated law right? also as per this lawyer tweet, "26,000 green cards a month will move over to the employment based system, in October of this year"

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status...029779969?s=20

[qesehmk]

I have question. Trump has signed banning GCs through consular processing whoever is outside USA. Does it also affect EB GCs outside USA ? Like EB1, Eb3,4 Consular processing ?
On may 23, We will get to recommendations on banning entry for non immigrant visas.?

Looks like nobody answered. So I will.

1) All CP is stopped except EB5.
2) I am not aware of any news on non-immigrant visas

[android09]

Looks like nobody answered. So I will.

1) All CP is stopped except EB5.
2) I am not aware of any news on non-immigrant visas

qesehmk, what are you seeing as possibilities for EB2 I for early 2011 in the current situation. Any expectations for 2011 cases? Ideally, how far can the spillover go if allocated?

[qesehmk]

qesehmk, what are you seeing as possibilities for EB2 I for early 2011 in the current situation. Any expectations for 2011 cases? Ideally, how far can the spillover go if allocated?

Android I stopped doing manual calculations long time back. You will have to calculate yourself. I am sorry.

[NJMavarick]

qesehmk, what are you seeing as possibilities for EB2 I for early 2011 in the current situation. Any expectations for 2011 cases? Ideally, how far can the spillover go if allocated?

Android - It all depends upon the spill over number. However, if the admin ban gets extended beyond the 60 days and the FB spill over is applied. EB2I early 2011 is a possibility.

[android09]

Android - It all depends upon the spill over number. However, if the admin ban gets extended beyond the 60 days and the FB spill over is applied. EB2I early 2011 is a possibility.

Thank you. I'm in 2013 but want this line to start moving.

[Greenc]

If anyone has come across this news. Any idea from where these unused numbers coming from ?

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/30/...-nurses-to-us/

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Some more updates from Murthy:

https://www.murthy.com/2020/05/13/up...d-predictions/

[redsox2009]

Starting from this month I'm expecting significant movement for EB2 and EB3 Indians. From July we will see more aggressive movements for Indians.

[Pundit Arjun]

Lets hope all these news does turn positive for folks waiting for years... Like Q said few days, we have all seen this same movie play out every few years [Gloom & Doom] and not give anything positive.
Hope the guys waiting for EAD get a chance to file and get them soon.

For folks waiting for GC, just forget [if possible] and carry on with life... It will happen at some point....

[idliman]

Starting from this month I'm expecting significant movement for EB2 and EB3 Indians. From July we will see more aggressive movements for Indians.

Tathastu. The most relevant details are in this paragraph.

Mr. Oppenheim also explained that approximately 95 percent of family-based cases are processed at consulates, while 85 percent of employment-based cases are processed by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) via adjustment-of-status applications. Given that consulates across the globe have closed due to the pandemic, Mr. Oppenheim expects there will be many unused immigrant visa numbers for cases being processed through consulates. This could result in the USCIS having more visa numbers to use for adjustment-of-status cases this fiscal year.

I wounder why he left out EB2/EB3. Maybe a) he wants the extra 10 days in this month to get better demand or b) he is withholding information to be revealed at this month's Check-in.

[jimmys]

Starting from this month I'm expecting significant movement for EB2 and EB3 Indians. From July we will see more aggressive movements for Indians.

Been there many times. Hopes were burned to ashes every single time. I will believe it when I see it.

[Zenzone]

Tathastu. The most relevant details are in this paragraph.

I wounder why he left out EB2/EB3. Maybe a) he wants the extra 10 days in this month to get better demand or b) he is withholding information to be revealed at this month's Check-in.

Is he not talking in general about SO from CP to AOS backlog agnostic to whether its FB or EB?

[NJMavarick]

Is he not talking in general about SO from CP to AOS backlog agnostic to whether its FB or EB?

He made a generic comment but the following statement "This could result in the USCIS having more visa numbers to use for adjustment-of-status cases this fiscal year." would be more relevant for EB as he mentioned that 95% of FB are CP.

[qesehmk]

He made a generic comment but the following statement "This could result in the USCIS having more visa numbers to use for adjustment-of-status cases this fiscal year." would be more relevant for EB as he mentioned that 95% of FB are CP.

That is indeed true. Just keep in mind ... those numbers are still modest ... because they will be half year CP numbers within category EB2 and EB 3 only. No category now a days gives away numbers to other .... so just want people to not have very high hopes.

[NJMavarick]

That is indeed true. Just keep in mind ... those numbers are still modest ... because they will be half year CP numbers within category EB2 and EB 3 only. No category now a days gives away numbers to other .... so just want people to not have very high hopes.

Sure. However, would we not have the 4.5K FB spill over available for EB2I considering EBROW is current and in addition the balance 1.4K number from the current quota? I am not expecting the dates move drastically but a 1-3 month FAD movement is possible for EB2I

[qesehmk]

Sure. However, would we not have the 4.5K FB spill over available for EB2I considering EBROW is current and in addition the balance 1.4K number from the current quota? I am not expecting the dates move drastically but a 1-3 month FAD movement is possible for EB2I

I have never seen EB get numbers from FB in the same fiscal year. The numbers fall across next year.

I think couple of months movement is given for both EB2 and 3. (just a guess i haven't actually run the numbers).

[rocketfast]

I have never seen EB get numbers from FB in the same fiscal year. The numbers fall across next year.

I think couple of months movement is given for both EB2 and 3. (just a guess i haven't actually run the numbers).

Q,
I think he means last year's FB spillover of 16,000 would result in 4.5k to EB2 and since EB2ROW is current, and if its usage is not high, that 4.5k may come to EB2-I

[Ind2009]

We should get some clarity on the projections soon.
June Bulletin should be out this evening or tomorrow by latest.
I have no inside information but the Visa Bulletin page https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...-bulletin.html has an error message in place of the current and upcoming bulletin link and the page content under Fiscal year 2020 already has the link for June 2020 which is taking to a page that is not yet live.
So someone is currently working on the update.
Good luck for all in the queue.

[eaglenow]

Quick question. The country caps are applied on the overall numbers of both EB and FB. Given the pause in CP, the numbers normally used by EB CP and FB CP by India will now not be used. So the EB numbers will be available for AOS. And the FB number will spill over to next fiscal year. But since FB numbers are not used, shouldn’t that increase the EB country cap numbers this fiscal year?

Does anyone see anything wrong with the assumption above?

[qesehmk]

Q,
I think he means last year's FB spillover of 16,000 would result in 4.5k to EB2 and since EB2ROW is current, and if its usage is not high, that 4.5k may come to EB2-I

Totally agree. Sorry I misunderstood.

[abcx13]

Quick question. The country caps are applied on the overall numbers of both EB and FB. Given the pause in CP, the numbers normally used by EB CP and FB CP by India will now not be used. So the EB numbers will be available for AOS. And the FB number will spill over to next fiscal year. But since FB numbers are not used, shouldn’t that increase the EB country cap numbers this fiscal year?

Does anyone see anything wrong with the assumption above?

It's a good point. I didn't think of that.

It seems FB-I used ~14k visas per DoS visa statistics (a little under 7% of 226k FB visas, which is a bit surprising?) out of which some 13k were CP FB. I don't know how many FB were used by India this FY before the EO went in effect, but assuming CP FB is blocked for the rest the FY, then I think you are right that those should be available to EB-I AoS candidates unless there are FB-I AoS candidates in the US with later PDs who can pick up the slack from FB-I CP.

[rocketfast]

It's a good point. I didn't think of that.

It seems FB-I used ~14k visas per DoS visa statistics (a little under 7% of 226k FB visas, which is a bit surprising?) out of which some 13k were CP FB. I don't know how many FB were used by India this FY before the EO went in effect, but assuming CP FB is blocked for the rest the FY, then I think you are right that those should be available to EB-I AoS candidates unless there are FB-I AoS candidates in the US with later PDs who can pick up the slack from FB-I CP.

Good points. Since every country wouldn't have used FB, they can't increase it to every country. But conversely, they should decrease South Korea and Phillipines EB allocation. Would be interesting to see what Spec thinks.

[Spectator]

Good points. Since every country wouldn't have used FB, they can't increase it to every country. But conversely, they should decrease South Korea and Phillipines EB allocation. Would be interesting to see what Spec thinks.

Just to make sure we're talking about the same concept, I believe the discussion relates to the distribution of the overall 7% in FY2020.

For those not familiar with the workings of this, the 7% limit is set on the sum of FB & EB allocations for a FY.

For FY2020, this would be (226,000 + 156,500) * 7% = 26,775

Prorated for FB and EB this would be 15,820 and 10,955 respectively.

If a Country does not meet the 7% limit in FB, then EB can benefit from extra approvals as long as the overall 7% limit is not exceeded.

This is why South Korea can have higher approvals in EB, since they have very few FB approvals.

As far as India goes, here's the FB approvals for FY2019 (AOS & CP).

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ----------- 275 -- 1,619 ---- 273 -- 4,316 -- 7,454 -- 13,937

Of those, these are the CP figures:

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ----------- 225 -- 1,222 ---- 226 -- 4,193 -- 7,406 -- 13,272

From this, we can calculate that 95.2% of India FB approvals were Consular Processed.

For FY2020, to the end of March 2020 (i.e. Q1 + Q2) the CP figures for India are:

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ------------ 74 ---- 500 ---- 107 -- 1,365 -- 3,557 --- 5,603

The figures above should give you a base to speculate on how this particular issue may evolve, given the current situation.

To be clear, this is entirely separate from any increased approvals due to FB under use in the previous FY, or vertical or horizontal spillover in the current FY.

This is about distribution within the current FY against the overall 7% per Country limit.

You can follow the monthly movement of CP, thanks to redsox, in this thread.

Hope that helps.