EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[NJMavarick]

With too much unemployment and mandatory in-person interview, USCIS will have a great control of who's getting visas. I suspect Qs theory of policy decision in allocating visas will be very much in play irrespective of who wins in November.

Nevertheless, FY 21 is expected to be a good year for EB2/EB3 India.

I think if the dates move in July, then maybe that could a pointer of things to come in October..

[redsox2009]

can the USCIS FOs can handle that much in person interviews in FY 21?

USCIS can handle the in-person interviews without any issue, but if COVID conditions continue then that will be a different story.

[idliman]

Checkin with Charlie Does not have additional projection 28APR2020 has been published in Shusterman's website.

Like most of us, Charlie is working remotely and only travels to his office when necessary to perform certain functions of his job. As Charlie’s predictions are based upon data from certain government databases which cannot be accessed remotely, during this month’s conversation with AILA he was unable to pull statistics on visa number usage in real time. As a result, we are unable to provide more nuanced projections in this month’s column.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

[jimmys]

USCIS can handle the in-person interviews without any issue, but if COVID conditions continue then that will be a different story.

No issues? I'm not sure about that. Even without covid-19, many FOs are already backlogged.

[bloddy1]

Checkin with Charlie Does not have additional projection 28APR2020 has been published in Shusterman's website.
[/URL]

Are you talking about May Projections or just projection in general. Not sure how meaningful these are at this time. But May bulletin is already out, so regardless of what one may say w.r.t to spillover, etc., dont think there is any optimal way that EB2/3-I get meaningful relief despite green cards go unused.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...-may-2020.html

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Checkin with Charlie Does not have additional projection 28APR2020 has been published in Shusterman's website.

Like most of us, Charlie is working remotely and only travels to his office when necessary to perform certain functions of his job. As Charlie’s predictions are based upon data from certain government databases which cannot be accessed remotely, during this month’s conversation with AILA he was unable to pull statistics on visa number usage in real time. As a result, we are unable to provide more nuanced projections in this month’s column.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

I guess unlike us who are living and working in the 21st century, Charlie does not have access to VPNs.

[Tandav]

Checkin with Charlie Does not have additional projection 28APR2020 has been published in Shusterman's website.

Like most of us, Charlie is working remotely and only travels to his office when necessary to perform certain functions of his job. As Charlie’s predictions are based upon data from certain government databases which cannot be accessed remotely, during this month’s conversation with AILA he was unable to pull statistics on visa number usage in real time. As a result, we are unable to provide more nuanced projections in this month’s column.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

It is possible to find out some reason/exscuse for not using the spillover this year, as well as next year.

[NJMavarick]

Are you talking about May Projections or just projection in general. Not sure how meaningful these are at this time. But May bulletin is already out, so regardless of what one may say w.r.t to spillover, etc., dont think there is any optimal way that EB2/3-I get meaningful relief despite green cards go unused.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...-may-2020.html

Looking at your comments, it is very much possible you are not aware of "Check-In with Charlie" which happens on a monthly basis and which sets a precedent of the bulletin to come. I understand given the circumstances we can be pessimist at times but I would say hold your horses until July. If dates move in July then its likely the spill over will be applied next year.

[NJMavarick]

It is possible to find out some reason/exscuse for not using the spillover this year, as well as next year.

Everything is possible and nothing is ruled out. However, it is also possible that the dates may move and spill over is applied.

[NJMavarick]

No issues? I'm not sure about that. Even without covid-19, many FOs are already backlogged.

I think in the best case scenario, the Filing Dates would be moved substantially to generate demand and then the FAD will be used to control the issuance of GCs.

[qesehmk]

So here is a window into CO's mind. Hopefully I am correct.

If I were CO - I would be more concerned about Family category right now. That category is more affected and is going to create more unused visas because not only the category size is bigger but the CP vs AOS mix is bigger. If CO does not move quickly to forward AOS dates in FB category then the category may have lots of unused visas that will go to EB category (by law).

The trouble is - unlike EB, FB category may not have huge AOS backlog to play with. So simply moving dates ahead does not guarantee consumption of all available visas. It may mean only giving 485 benefits to 50K more people (something Trump administration definitely does not like).

So CO is going to be in a tricky situation. That's why he is unwilling to say anything at this moment. On EB side - I think it is given that the dates will move a bit further than otherwise they would have. And likely the backlogged candidates will get 4-6K extra visas. But remember not all of those will go to EB2/3-India. There is backlog in EB1 too. Don't forget that.

So the real gamechanger is FB spillover and how it will impact EB next year.

[NJMavarick]

So here is a window into CO's mind. Hopefully I am correct.

If I were CO - I would be more concerned about Family category right now. That category is more affected and is going to create more unused visas because not only the category size is bigger but the CP vs AOS mix is bigger. If CO does not move quickly to forward AOS dates in FB category then the category may have lots of unused visas that will go to EB category (by law).

The trouble is - unlike EB, FB category may not have huge AOS backlog to play with. So simply moving dates ahead does not guarantee consumption of all available visas. It may mean only giving 485 benefits to 50K more people (something Trump administration definitely does not like).

So CO is going to be a tricky situation. That's why he is unwilling to say anything at this moment. On EB side - I think it is given that the dates will move a bit further than otherwise they would have. And likely the backlogged candidates will get 4-6K extra visas. But remember not all of those will go to EB2/3-India. There is backlog in EB1 too. Don't forget that.

So the real gamechanger is FB spillover and how it will impact EB next year.

Thank you Q! Your insight is always valuable. What do you think, will the Admin stop the spill over of FB visas to EB? They could potentially get to close 6 figures..

[qesehmk]

Thank you Q! Your insight is always valuable. What do you think, will the Admin stop the spill over of FB visas to EB? They could potentially get to close 6 figures..

Thanks Mav. We are all guessing. So my guess may be only slightly better because of years of "experience" in these topics.

I think Trump admin hates all kinds of immigration. In that sense, they don't play favorites. But given its election year, they might remain passive and let the situation benefit EB backlog which is mostly Indian.

[monsieur]

I agree to disagree Q, Trump will not favour EB category just because its Indian who are suffering. This is side effect of his strong dislike to FB immigration which he calls as chain migration.

Trump admin is/was trying to push for Merit Based Immigration policy, so there is a chance they will let flow of FB to EB visa because its lesser of 2 evil. This also helps in terms that its a business friendly policy which is relatively easy sell and get donations from corps.

Don't get me wrong, they will not do happily, its more that they hate chain migration more than merit migration. If they can get away, they will shutdown both EB and FB.

[qesehmk]

I agree to disagree Q, Trump will not favour EB category just because its Indian who are suffering. This is side effect of his strong dislike to FB immigration which he calls as chain migration.

Trump admin is/was trying to push for Merit Based Immigration policy, so there is a chance they will let flow of FB to EB visa because its lesser of 2 evil. This also helps in terms that its a business friendly policy which is relatively easy sell and get donations from corps.

Don't get me wrong, they will not do happily, its more that they hate chain migration more than merit migration. If they can get away, they will shutdown both EB and FB.

I think that's what I am saying too. They don't have favorites. They hate both kind of immigration. But they may passively let the situation benefit EB.
Where is disagreement !!

[altek001]

EB2/3 India hasn't moved much since 2015. Since EB india and china are the only affected categories by the backlog, USCIS/ DOS will ensure FB visa spillover isn't provided to these two countries. Trump is against chinese taking Tech/IP back to china and the rest in trump admin will ensure EB-India loathes in backlog, as this is in their best interest. Visa capture is a long shot that will never happen.

Analysis from these articles spew only hatred to Americans.
https://www.law360.com/articles/1267...ployment-visas

Please do not keep any hopes on FB visa spillover, and make decisions in the best interests of your family.

[jimmys]

EB2/3 India hasn't moved much since 2015.

Whilst I agree with EB2-India, the EB-3 India moved from Dec 2004 in 2015 to Mar 2009 in 2020. It's about 4+ years movement in 4+ years. For EB-3 India it's not that bad.

[Blue_fairy]

There is a lot of debate about whether or not Trump's EO will benefit the EB community. No one knows for sure, but what leading indicators would you watch out for, starting from the June VB, to inform yourself?

[jimmys]

There is a lot of debate about whether or not Trump's EO will benefit the EB community. No one knows for sure, but what leading indicators would you watch out for, starting from the June VB, to inform yourself?

The ballpark number of FB spillover to EB in FY 21 will be known at the end of October/early November 2020.

As per whereismygc, the FB spillover is going to be ~35K for the EB category. Given whereismygc's earlier predictions, it's most likely going to be the vicinity of 35K. In that case, EB1/EB2/EB3 each will receive ~9975. In EB2/EB3 India will benefit a lot from it.

[rabp77]

The ballpark number of FB spillover to EB in FY 21 will be known at the end of October/early November 2020.

As per whereismygc, the FB spillover is going to be ~35K for the EB category. Given whereismygc's earlier predictions, it's most likely going to be the vicinity of 35K. In that case, EB1/EB2/EB3 each will receive ~9975. In EB2/EB3 India will benefit a lot from it.

If the spillover to EB2/Eb3 will be 9975 each, then will this be spread across all countires, and based on the 7% pre country cap, the additional available to EB2-I/EB3-I will be just around ~685 ?

[Zenzone]

If the spillover to EB2/Eb3 will be 9975 each, then will this be spread across all countires, and based on the 7% pre country cap, the additional available to EB2-I/EB3-I will be just around ~685 ?

yes..but also the assumption is if ROW is current in the respective EB category that will again flow back as horizontal SO to India (most backlogged).

[Greenc]

Hello NJMavarick,
Wanted to understand the FB spillover better, when you say "If EB2ROW is current then 28600 would go to EB2I completely" would this be at the end of FY2021 or the beginning ?

[monsieur]

Horizontal spillover is generally applied in last qtr. But CO has discretion to apply it earlier as he has data to look into trends and utilization in given category.

[Greenc]

Thank you. Now I get the speculation of dates moving in last quarter of FY2020

[NJMavarick]

Hello NJMavarick,
Wanted to understand the FB spillover better, when you say "If EB2ROW is current then 28600 would go to EB2I completely" would this be at the end of FY2021 or the beginning ?

The FB spill over will be applied starting October 2020 which is the start of the new fiscal year. Again, no one can accurately predict the exact spill over number but my guess would be between 50K - 100K. This again depends upon the IV visa ban being extended or not.

It is up-to to current admin to apply the spillover. There is no rule to say that they have to pass the numbers to EB.