Let us be cautious - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/...694922753?s=21Originally Posted by rocketfast
Let us be cautious - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/...694922753?s=21
TSC | PD: 12/21/2009 | RD: 02/14/12| ND: 02/16/12 | FP ND: 03/05/12 | FP: 03/26/12 | EAD/AP: ? | GC: ?
Today's article i WaPo is titled ;
Stephen Miller has long-term vision for Trump’s ‘temporary’ immigration order, according to private call with supporters.
Ofcourse nothing is coming to EB on a platter.
Thank you rocketfast. It really helps . With horizontal spillovers any chances EB2 might reach early 2011 in October? Or might get stuck in 2010 ?
IMO, we are talking about mega hypotheticals. You can get more optimistic and move it all the way into early 2011. But it is best to wait for 3-4 months to see how things play out and then relook. (We are talking about 2021 October.). For all we know, as Greg Siskind says, they will come with a legally questionable executive action that says spillovers can't be used by EB.
Based on the data that was released on Apr 20, Monthly CO data, and the latest proclamation that was issued, I strongly believe whoever has applied I-485 in the last 18 months and got the medicals done and interviews were done, have high chances of getting GC by Sept.
If RFE's were issued then getting RFE response could take more time, I think USCIS will test issuing RFE's and see the response time. In the past, USCIS made a comment about RFE response time within 30-45 days and blamed EB3I for not responding within their anticipated time interval and this caused EB3I to lose GC's.
If US consulates are closed for 3 months, then there could be around 50K leftovers to the EB community. If that is the case then EB1+EB2+EB3 will get around 42K, i.e. 14k each. You need to consider many other factors here, Perm approvals, New I-140 applications, and I-485 applications, as the job market is very slow, there is lesser chances of new I-485 and Perms coming. This will have much more impact in the coming years, starting around March 2021, we will see EB2I/EB3I dates moving at a rapid pace and chances of hitting 2011 by end of 2022 is very high. But the key here is can the Job market and IT community surviving in 2021. (if US consulates are closed for 6 months then EB community will get around 100K). Based on events happening around the world, I think there is high chance of US consulate closing till July end. So this year we need to consider EB leftover numbers being allocated to EB1 from EB4/5 and to down EB2/3 based on the RFE issuance and response times.
In OCT 2018 following dates were current for filing, for these applications in the coming months around or after July 2020, becoming current is very high, I would give around 90%
EB1C --- 1-Oct-17, EB2C --- 15-Jun-15, EB3C ------ 8-Aug-15
EB1I --- 1-Oct-17, EB2I --- 22-May-09, EB3I ------- 1-Oct-09
EB1ROW/P/M ----1-Jun-18, EB2-ROW --- Current, EB3-ROW --- Current
EB3P ----- 1-Jul-17.
Recession is not taken off the table, whenever there is a recession, IT market got hit 6 months after the recession saw its lows. 2021 will be very key to the IT job market, more layoffs and more offshores resources pouring in. When the 2008 recession hit, I think in 2009/2010 USCIS did not approve H1B's and US consulates issued more 221g's. Based on these experiences we can expect to see that trend again. If I'm not wrong in 2010, I think H1B's applications were accepted till June/July. More H1b RFE's, higher PERM turn around time and high PERM audits can happen. If anyone is changing jobs in the next 6 months, I wish them a Goodluck as they might see a newer trend and more hard times.
In 2021, whoever is in Whitehouse we will have hard time for any immigration proposals going through and if Republicans are in control of the senate then we will have more hard time with USCIS. Senate Judiciary will give a more hard time to the USCIS.
FOr EB2I whoever responded to RFE's before DEC 2018, their dates becoming current is high (80%). I knew a few people whose dates are around Sept 2009 and they got RFE's in Sept 2018 and they responded in OCT/NOV 2018, their dates becoming current are not taken off the chart.
Interestingly I did not see CO's comment on the coming month dates movement, my guess CO is also uncertain how things will progress/move, but based on the previous experiences I'm sure CO will take some bold steps around July 2020 to utilize all available numbers.
@redsox, what is your take on someone with a PD of May 25, 2017, EB1 India? We had our interview back in December 2018 and proactively submitted I 485J, as I changed jobs mid last year, which is still pending.
Thanks!
Around OCT 2020(+2 months) you have a high chance of becoming current.
Hi Rocketfest,
Just to check, how much of spillover will actually be needed to get to Early 2011 though? Is there an approximate estimation of how much spillover is needed to hit say Jan 31, 2011 ? My PD is in 2013, so not that I'm anxious but rather wish this thing moves along to some level so people from 2009 and 2010 are taken out of the pipeline.
Thanks! We have also just applied for our ead/ap renewals earlier in the month. Let's see how long they approve it for. Previous one was for two years, and if they approve it for only 1 year this time, I will assume they expect me to get current within that time. Will keep people posted.
How is FB spillover applied to EB in subsequent year?
1.Does it flow to EB1-->EB2-->EB3 or
2. Equally distributed among three.
Trying to see if there is 50-60K spillover from FB , how will it move the EB3-I needle
28.6% to EB1-3 categories and 7% to EB4-5. Spec has a good post in this forum explaining FB spill overs.
e.g: 100K - 28600 would each go to EB1,2,3 categories and then 7% would go to India EB2I (i.e. 2002). If EB2ROW is current then 28600 would go to EB2I completely.
Just to add, we will most likely get in excess of 70K spillover from FB. This will lead to close to 20K spillover for EB2 and EB3. We will have to see where EB3 ROW ends this fiscal. Depending upon that EB3I dates will be decided. I think EB3I demand is perhaps ~1200 people per month including dependents (i.e. 600 PERM per month) on the higher side. If EB3I were to get~12000 (10000 Spillover + 2806), we can expect a 10 month movement from the date that it gets to in current year.
Filing dates for EB3I should reach mid 2011 next year if all goes well. Again, this is a guesstimate....
And your expectation for EB2?
I'm thinking around 50K, I think CO will try to move the dates for FB and utilize the numbers for FB. But the question would be, can the Consulates handle the scheduling.
Even with 50K spillover to EB categories, can the USCIS FOs can handle that much in person interviews in FY 21?
Apart from the 2 months of officially being closed, most consulates were already closed approx 45 days before. While CO can certainly move the FB dates but I do not think that would align with the current admin. Furthermore, there would not be many AOS cases for FB in the US and I strongly feel that this ban is going to be extended further. This is obviously apart from the fact if the consulates can handle the scheduling as you mentioned..
That is a valid question but at the least most of the eligible folks will get the EAD. Heck, I am so desperate that I would take that in the interim.
https://www.law360.com/articles/1267...ployment-visas
The lawyer lobby has already started highlighting how this will help EB based immigration. This will end well for us.
Yeah, I think people here are being overly optimistic.Most likely 2 months of pause and then the FB GC queue will move again, there won't be any extra spillover due to the pause.
Sorry. but are you being sarcastic?
With too much unemployment and mandatory in-person interview, USCIS will have a great control of who's getting visas. I suspect Qs theory of policy decision in allocating visas will be very much in play irrespective of who wins in November.
Nevertheless, FY 21 is expected to be a good year for EB2/EB3 India.
Yeah sorry, should have added the /s at the end.
These guys are really pathetic. All the time it's about DACA, Diversity, Familly Immigration! I mean what about people who have been here 20 years and still renewing work visas and have no certainty of coming back if they leave the country?
Now they will circulate these everywhere around with somber nods and affirmations from their cronies in DC and make sure the right people hear it put in the necessary roadblocks. Why would they want to lose the revenue of thousands of people like us stuck in backlogs?
Editing post to update that a lawsuit has already been filed: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta.../#33424889131b
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