Maybe I should have put it clear.Originally Posted by Umesh1209
In FY 21, if 50K spillover happens to EB categories, it's equally allocated as they were allocated last year's 16K. My point was, with that spillover EB1 will march fast into 2018/2019 from 2015. EB2 and EB3 India may move a year or so even with such spillover, Instead of dates stuck in 2009, it will get stuck in 2010.
But the number could be way more than 50K spillover right. Given that its the election year, DT may extend this into fall.
If what you said turns out to be true, I could still see a slight silver lining (I admit it's minute). At least some new people will be able to file for 485 (folks beyond Apr 2010) who never had the ability to file over the last 8 years!!
But the number could be way more than 50K spillover right. Given that its the election year, DT may extend this into fall. Can someone pls post the link to past inventory analysis?
Folks, don't count your chickens and don't raise your hopes. Given the environment, I am very skeptical that any spillover will be applied to any category this year. The administration has not even released the May bulletin yet; and no bulletin may become the status quo for foreseeable future.
yes....but its required to publish the VB as there is no ban on immigration per se. Sooner or later it will be issued. I understand the importance of cautious optimism though.
Is this March 2020 consular processing data? (Or is it Feb?). If it is march, it still looks substantial usage.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...sa%20Class.pdf
May 2020 Visa Bulletin to be Released Tomorrow
23 Apr 2020
Charles Oppenheim, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, stated during a conference call this afternoon that the May 2020 Visa Bulletin has finally been cleared for release. He expects to issue it Friday, April 24, 2020.
https://www.murthy.com/2020/04/23/ne...ased-tomorrow/
Yes, it is march CP data.
refer the below link for detailed counts per country wise
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...-Onwards/page3
Thanks. So for Q1+Q2, family based is same as 2019 Q1+Q2. I was expecting March numbers to have cratered - apparently not.
Since AOS FB will still be valid, likely tomorrow's visa bulletin will make it current. Not sure how much demand it can create.
Also, if it does become current, does it mean that those in EB who have sibling citizens can apply there right away? (Not very familiar with FB timelines)
I agree. None of us have any clue how this will turn out. But, given circumstances and based on FY 19 FB CP numbers:
16K (It may approximately yield as much as last year) + 10K (Due to public charges rule)+ 24K (Two months complete shutdown).
There could be a lot of variables that can alter the above equation. When this ban ends on Jun 24, in the rest of the months they can issue the 24K in that equation. But still 26K is not completely unreasonable.
We will re-assess in Aug 2020.
Good plan, my friend and brother Jimmys.
I am EB2 Oct 2009.. rooting for your optimism instead of my skepticism
A similar spillover info tweet from one of the attorney's...I am EB2 Oct 2009.. rooting for your optimism instead of my skepticism
https://twitter.com/wstock215/status...029779969?s=12
sorry for a quick tangent. My PD is Nov 2017 for EB1A. on EAD+AP with interview completed Feb 2019
When can I expect to have the 485 approved?
Thanks!
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...-may-2020.html
EB2 : 02-Jun-2009
EB3 : 01-Mar-2009
FB seems to have no impact based on EO
TSC | PD: 12/21/2009 | RD: 02/14/12| ND: 02/16/12 | FP ND: 03/05/12 | FP: 03/26/12 | EAD/AP: ? | GC: ?
yeah...many FB categories seems to have moved significantly. But i believe they can still not apply unless they are already physically present in US. As per what i have heard, 85% of family based visa are applied through consulates outside US.
Glad EB3I-FAD moved by more than a month, which is the best we have seen in some time.
Actually I wonder if there are a lot of AoS FB candidates living in the US under some status who become current because of the lack of CP and basically 'jump the queue' and get their GCs soon.
What a mess.
Based on what we now know about the EO and the May VB, any gurus willing to go back to the calculation/prediction game and share their thoughts on date movement over the next 6 months?
Not a Guru. But here are my numbers:
My COVID predictions for 2021:
-----------------------------
For FY2020, Q1+Q2, FB has given away 90,000 GCs via consular processing. For FY 2019, consular processing gave away 190,000 FB GCs (remaining were AOS FB). And a spillover of ~16000 to EB for this year. Total FB from which spillover can come is 226,000.
This year, we assume that 16,000 will come again. And in addition, we may get (A: 20,000, B: 30,000, C: 40,000) depending on the length of Trump's shutdown and the extra amount that FB AOS will take up because of fast moving dates.
After this year, EB2I will have ~2800 remaning in 2009 (based on the last published I-485 inventory). And guessing that EB3I will have ~2000 remaining in 2009.
For FY2021, if we get 50,000 FB spillover, EB2 and EB3 will each get 14,000 GCs extra. Since EB2ROW is current and since EB3ROW is likely close to current, I make an assumption that all of that will go to EB2-I and EB3-I.
On the demand side, in 2009, there will be ~5000 EB2I+EB3I demand. And we know that for FY2010, the total PERM for EB3I and EB2I was 22361 leading to a worst case GC demand of 44,600 (demand skewed towards later half of year).
So, you are looking at EB2-I and EB3-I with a final action date of late 2010 and filing date of early 2011.
USCIS only opening offices by June. A positive.
https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/us...-reopen-june-4
O April 20th when we were busy with Dr.Pepper's tweet, USCIS released some interesting data.
2020
Quarter -------------- Q1 ------- Q2 ----- Q3 ----- Q4 ----- Total
PERM ------------- 16,072 --- 15,105 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 31,777
I140 Received ---- 33,077 -------- 0 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 33,077
I140 Approved ---- 30,575 -------- 0 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 30,575
I485 Received ---- 40,239 -------- 0 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 40,239
I485 Approved ---- 41,884 -------- 0 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 41,884
ROW PERM ---------- 4,751 ---- 4,679 ------ 0 ------ 0 ----- 9,430
Form I-140, I-360, I-526 Approved EB Petitions Awaiting Visa Final Priority Dates By Preference Category
As of November 12, 2019
Employment Based Preference Category
Country of Birth ------- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ---- Grand Total
China --------------- 10,010 -- 29,517 --- 8,930 ----- 637 ------- 0 -- 27,251 --------- 76,345
El Salvador -------------- 5 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -- 13,324 ------- 0 --------- 13,329
Guatemala --------------- 16 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -- 11,171 ------- 0 --------- 11,187
Honduras ----------------- 4 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 9,835 ------- 0 ---------- 9,839
India --------------- 29,630 - 284,207 -- 66,362 ----- 230 ------- 0 ----- 189 -------- 380,618
Mexico ----------------- 372 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 1,975 ------- 0 ---------- 2,347
Philippines ------------- 94 ------- 0 ----5,262 ----- 333 ------- 0 ------- 0 ---------- 5,689
Vietnam ----------------- 32 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----- 491 ------------ 523
Rest of the World ---- 8,116 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ---------- 8,116
TOTAL --------------- 48,279 - 313,724 -- 80,554 --- 1,200 -- 36,305 -- 27,931 -------- 507,993
Source:- Spec's caluculation, Perm Data and Uscis Data.
https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-...?ftopics_tid=0
Thank you rocketfast.. This prediction is giving some light in a dark tunnel. Thanks for your time.
As per your prediction when can the dates move to Oct 2009 for EB2. Can they happen year around Oct 2020
Not a Guru. But here are my numbers:
My COVID predictions for 2021:
-----------------------------
For FY2020, Q1+Q2, FB has given away 90,000 GCs via consular processing. For FY 2019, consular processing gave away 190,000 FB GCs (remaining were AOS FB). And a spillover of ~16000 to EB for this year. Total FB from which spillover can come is 226,000.
This year, we assume that 16,000 will come again. And in addition, we may get (A: 20,000, B: 30,000, C: 40,000) depending on the length of Trump's shutdown and the extra amount that FB AOS will take up because of fast moving dates.
After this year, EB2I will have ~2800 remaning in 2009 (based on the last published I-485 inventory). And guessing that EB3I will have ~2000 remaining in 2009.
For FY2021, if we get 50,000 FB spillover, EB2 and EB3 will each get 14,000 GCs extra. Since EB2ROW is current and since EB3ROW is likely close to current, I make an assumption that all of that will go to EB2-I and EB3-I.
On the demand side, in 2009, there will be ~5000 EB2I+EB3I demand. And we know that for FY2010, the total PERM for EB3I and EB2I was 22361 leading to a worst case GC demand of 44,600 (demand skewed towards later half of year).
So, you are looking at EB2-I and EB3-I with a final action date of late 2010 and filing date of early 2011.
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Thanks! This is helpful. So this doesn't account any other additional EB based horizontal SO due to lower ROW demand from the recession, right? (I'm not talking about your assumption of FB SO flowing directly to EB2/3 I but I'm talking about unused EB visas in the ROW side due to the weak recessionary demand.
That is correct. Even if there is a horizontal spillover from EB2ROW, it will be very low thousands and will not make any difference in the larger picture. Also, since EB3ROW is not really current right now, it is likely to take some from FB anyway. But those are really around the corners and does not matter anyway as you are looking at 50,000 coming from FB and assuming worst case GC demand of 44,000 from EB2i + EB3i. Those are the big numbers and variations there will make the larger difference.
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