EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jimmys]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here.

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here.

Thanks Spec. How EB1-India and EB-3 India managed to get more than 7% where their respective ROW dates had retrogressed (EB3 ROW only partially,though)?

[YTeleven]

Dates moving to July 1,2009 doesn't mean all the applicants before that date were approved. If you look at the CP numbers, it's still going strong with 2008 or prior PDs. And, also we don't know if EB-3 India received 6K for FY 19 or will receive 6K for FY 20. We don't know how many are still left in 2008 or prior. There are a lot of unknowns at this point of time. Given the fact EB-3 ROW already fallen to backlog for this FY, it's very hard for EB-3 to go anywhere.

Now, its official that EB3India received ONLY 5K for FY2019. My projection for FY2020 is 7K for EB3India in spite of EB3ROW retrogression(Please don't ask HOW and WHY).
We will only know how accurate is this projection after 1 year from now when FY2020 VISA Stats gets released.

[4WatItsWorth]

Now, its official that EB3India received ONLY 5K for FY2019. My projection for FY2020 is 7K for EB3India in spite of EB3ROW retrogression(Please don't ask HOW and WHY).
We will only know how accurate is this projection after 1 year from now when FY2020 VISA Stats gets released.

With EB2-I and EB3-I so much intermingled due to upward / downward porting, what does this mean in terms for date movement, though?

[GCdreamz]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here.

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here.

Hi Spec,

How come EB2 & EB3 China got Spill Over? When India is more retrogressed than China, shouldn't India get more Visas?

In case of Philippines, I understand that CO allocates SO by taking Family Based and Employment Based into Account but China is not same as Philippines right?

Also, do you know which category these low wage jobs come under? Eb2 or EB3?

https://www.myvisajobs.com/Vietnam-PERM19CT.htm
https://www.myvisajobs.com/South-Korea-PERM19CT.htm

[YTeleven]

Hi Spec,

How come EB2 & EB3 China got Spill Over? When India is more retrogressed than China, shouldn't India get more Visas?

In case of Philippines, I understand that CO allocates SO by taking Family Based and Employment Based into Account but China is not same as Philippines right?

Also, do you know which category these low wage jobs come under? Eb2 or EB3?

https://www.myvisajobs.com/Vietnam-PERM19CT.htm
https://www.myvisajobs.com/South-Korea-PERM19CT.htm

These are mostly EB3-ROW Unskilled category PERMS.
These were increased 4 folds in last 5 years.
This is another reason why we are seeing the EB3-ROW retrogression.
I predict this retrogression will be there at least for another year.

[newsletter1978]

Gurus, it has been a frustrating year for EB2I with dates hardly moving. Do you think EB2I dates will move in last quarter may be reach filing date July 1? or cross July?

[lville]

Gurus, it has been a frustrating year for EB2I with dates hardly moving. Do you think EB2I dates will move in last quarter may be reach filing date July 1? or cross July?

For last 2 quarters before each quarter began they gave projections on how dates will move. I'm guessing may be in April Bulletin they will give another projection on movement for next quarter for each category.

For eg In Oct bulletin they said EB2I will move by 1 week and we noticed EB2I moved by 1 day, 3 days and 3 days in Nov, Dec and Jan. ALso in Jan bulletin they said like movement for EB2I will be by 1 week and so far EB2I has moved by 1 day, 3 days and most likely it will move by 3 days in April Bulletin bringing EB2I to May 25, 2009. Looks like May 23 and 24 were Sat and SUN. May 25 2009 was Holiday too. SO basically only people from May 22, 2009 will be current next bulletin.

Although they mention it will be monthly movement but we have seen what they say moved for that quarter.

IDK when will July 1 be current. I'm just Sensei as per q, may be other gurus will help you understand when ur date will be current.

[srimurthy]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here.

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here.

Spec - how come China, South Korea EB2 allotments got more than 2800 (From the CP and AOS), when EB2 India had the most backlogged?

[newsletter1978]

Corona Virus - Do you think Corona Virus will have an impact on visa movement? Like ROW demand slows down, EB2I or EB3I get more spillover?

[idliman]

Corona Virus - Do you think Corona Virus will have an impact on visa movement? Like ROW demand slows down, EB2I or EB3I get more spillover?

You forgot to ask about Nigeria travel ban and Public charge rule. These in combination with COVID19 will have some effect on FB visas mostly. I think CP will see it first. AOS applicants are already in the system. So that takes time. No sure about EB visas.

The Muslim ban countries along with Nigeria took about 10K FB visas last year (source Aljazeera). So most of the missing demand might be absorbed by other ROW countries.

[rocketfast]

You forgot to ask about Nigeria travel ban and Public charge rule. These in combination with COVID19 will have some effect on FB visas mostly. I think CP will see it first. AOS applicants are already in the system. So that takes time. No sure about EB visas.

The Muslim ban countries along with Nigeria took about 10K FB visas last year (source Aljazeera). So most of the missing demand might be absorbed by other ROW countries.

My understanding of the public charge rule is that it only applies for AOS applicants and does not apply for Consular processing. There are very few family AOS applicants.

[jimmys]

My understanding of the public charge rule is that it only applies for AOS applicants and does not apply for Consular processing. There are very few family AOS applicants.

There's only a minimal disturbance expected in numerical limitations categories like FB and EB. It may have great impact in Immediate Relatives category but they are not constrained by numerical limitations. So, in all, the benefits to EB category is minimal if any.

[EB22010Dec]

Can I ask why ?

[moon80]

You will be surprised.
Read this report which is from last year when public charge rule was not so strong.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...-trump-1637094
In 2018 (when USCIS sent memo for CP for public charge..no change for AOS) see the denials due to public charge from just 3 countries : India 1254, Pakistan 1246, Bangladesh 1502
Most of them must be from immediate family based visa so not a direct impact.
But from this year I think you will see lot more denials due to public charge.

[texas_]

When Public charge denials increase do the spill those visas into Employment based Visa categories?

[monsieur]

When Public charge denials increase do the spill those visas into Employment based Visa categories?

If that person applied under FB category then any unused number will be spilled into EB.

[srimurthy]

When Public charge denials increase do the spill those visas into Employment based Visa categories?

Yes they will increase the allocation next year. But benefit to EB2I or EB3I will be minimal based on the arbitrary allocation of over 7% to China and ROW when the most backlogged country is India and we have thousands who already filed 485 and still did not get greened and thousands more waiting even before 2015 dates to submit 485 applications.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Not sure if someone has made this point, but can you imagine the thousands of people who have waited 10+ yrs who have to go repeatedly for H1 stamping in India and other consulates? We and the State Dept. have to keep gathering and processing the same paperwork over and over and over again, especially many who have been with the same employer a decade or more with no changes in their situation. Such a colossal waste of money and human effort all around... just absurd. Last year when I went for stamping, there was this really young visa officer and he was younger than me and he looked at my file and just literally dropped his jaw and asked me, "You are saying you have been in the US for close to 20 years out of your 40 and still have to keep renewing visas? I am not even going to ask you any questions". And I kid you not, he literally did not even ask me a single question and approved it.

[qesehmk]

Not sure if someone has made this point, but can you imagine the thousands of people who have waited 10+ yrs who have to go repeatedly for H1 stamping in India and other consulates? We and the State Dept. have to keep gathering and processing the same paperwork over and over and over again, especially many who have been with the same employer a decade or more with no changes in their situation. Such a colossal waste of money and human effort all around... just absurd.

That is the cost. But it is not as random as you may think. There are special interests who like immigration status quo.

[newsletter1978]

If Corona Virus does not wipe out the human population, i still think this will slow down ROW demand and benefit EB2I and EB3I.

[qesehmk]

If Corona Virus does not wipe out the human population, i still think this will slow down ROW demand and benefit EB2I and EB3I.

If Trump is right that heat kills the virus then Sahara desert will become the hottest property market. Literally

[monsieur]

If Trump is right that heat kills the virus then Sahara desert will become the hottest property market. Literally

This is prevalent theory within medical field and heard same from couple of my RNx buddies who says any virus like flu gets weaker when summer season arrives. Mortality rate of CoVid-19 is 2% compared to Flu which has 0.1% They are not sure whether CoVid-19 will behave same way or not so uncertainties....

[qesehmk]

This is prevalent theory within medical field and heard same from couple of my RNx buddies who says any virus like flu gets weaker when summer season arrives. Mortality rate of CoVid-19 is 2% compared to Flu which has 0.1% They are not sure whether CoVid-19 will behave same way or not so uncertainties....

I think that's generally true. Whether it is true with CoVid-19 is yet to be seen. Particularly if this an engineered virus (which is what I suspect given how it was a hush hush operation) then we all going to be royally screwed.

[jimmys]

This is prevalent theory within medical field and heard same from couple of my RNx buddies who says any virus like flu gets weaker when summer season arrives. Mortality rate of CoVid-19 is 2% compared to Flu which has 0.1% They are not sure whether CoVid-19 will behave same way or not so uncertainties....

There maybe some truth to it. Singapore reported its first case about 3 weeks ago. But, their cases yet to cross 100. It's 90/75 weather for them. Actually, when Singapore reported its first case, people feared it's going to be worse since Singapore mostly relied on public transit. But, it's not that severe when you compare Tehran (60/45F weather) and Italy (60/45F or less weather).

Remains to be seen that's the case in US as well. We've had around 80F last few days here. But it's going to get little cooler next week.

[mahendra]

Considering, monthly immigrant visa issuance statistics of Jan-2020, total EB3-I Consular Processing so far in FY 2020 is 612