Thank you, now I get it !Originally Posted by monsieur
This stat is of no use !!!
Thank you, now I get it !
This stat is of no use !!!
Its not totally useless, you can get some insight.
Like - EB1 filing is trending downwards since 2017. esp true for India (2nd page). Approvals have gone down (6k to 5k) for EB1C category from 2017 to 2018.
For 2019 -
total # of cases filed are reduced by 10% (~800) in EB1 category whereas spike in EB2 and 3 category.
Processing time has increased (many pending cases) in all categories.
Maybe USCIS is doing their due diligence or just being slow and not let folks come in. It can cause ripple effect in terms of EB1 filing or downward porting.
What was the latest date EB3I applicant that got approved in this forum? Are Jan 2009 EB3Is getting approved? I am not seeing much EB3Is celebrating approvals here. Since, other predictions are not feasible nowadays, without correct data, I guess this will be the closest indicator of how far we are to the AOS. I downgraded to EB3 based on this forum advise.
The downward filing trend may only be temporary as the dates has rolled back or stuck for EB1 too. Once they start moving my understanding is you will see the numbers going back again. Also with EB1, there is a high probability that for each 140 filing, there will be Spouse + kids for sure as these are already working folks in India with experience. Not a case of EB2 / EB3 who might have been here for more than 15 years and kids are born here. So the EB1 ratio may be higher than EB2 / EB3 dependents ratio.
The best option I see for EB2 / EB3 folks is work in another country for a year and then take a international transfer (if the employers support) and file in EB1 and port the date from the existing EB2 / EB3.
These are I-140 numbers, so I-485 date retrogression will not have any impact on filing. If thats the case than why EB2/EB3 filing went up? If I am in that shoe, I will prefer to file my I-140 asap so when date advances I get a chance to file I-485. In my mind, its only scrutiny or high chances of rejection will make me think abt filing in that particular category.
Is this report accurate or are they including EB+FB?
If this is indeed the case then a tenth of the backlog has been cleared and the dates should move
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/74167467.cms
YTeleven, 2020 is already underway and dates are barely moving. What is your latest take on 2020, do you think 2009 has a chance to clear?
gs1968,
Whoever wrote the article does not have a clue about US immigration.
The figures quoted refer to the recently released USCIS figures for I-140.
Very different from "Green Cards" as the author refers to them.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
It goes to show how hard it's to predict where the FAD will be in the future. Exactly a year ago VO was talking about 3 months movement per VB for EB-3 India(In FEB 19 bulletin EB3-India was at Apr 22,09) and 1 year later we're well behind (In FEB 20, EB-3 India Jan 8,2009) where we were a year ago.
If you take the first three months of consular processing data, the EB-3 India demand is at 70% (493/700) for the first quarter of FY'20.
In May 19, all of a sudden EB-3 ROW demand started to shoot up(This was the reason VO was unable to keep his 3 months movement per bulletin talk for EB-3 India) and it's still not receding as per CO. And, there are no signs of receding in the coming months thus imposing a PD for EB-3 ROW.
Any imposition of EB-3 ROW PDs as early as March and unrelenting consular demand for EB-3 India mean it is all gloom and doom for EB-3 India in FY '20.
The 4 fold increase in EB3-ROW demand is blocking EB3-I to get any spillover within EB3 catagory.It goes to show how hard it's to predict where the FAD will be in the future. Exactly a year ago VO was talking about 3 months movement per VB for EB-3 India(In FEB 19 bulletin EB3-India was at Apr 22,09) and 1 year later we're well behind (In FEB 20, EB-3 India Jan 8,2009) where we were a year ago.
If you take the first three months of consular processing data, the EB-3 India demand is at 70% (493/700) for the first quarter of FY'20.
In May 19, all of a sudden EB-3 ROW demand started to shoot up(This was the reason VO was unable to keep his 3 months movement per bulletin talk for EB-3 India) and it's still not receding as per CO. And, there are no signs of receding in the coming months thus imposing a PD for EB-3 ROW.
Any imposition of EB-3 ROW PDs as early as March and unrelenting consular demand for EB-3 India mean it is all gloom and doom for EB-3 India in FY '20.
But still EB3-I is getting total visas ~6K/year which is better than EB2-I visas.
Also, estimated EB3-I pending applications are 25% of EB2-I pending applications.
That makes EB3-I movement is always ahead of EB2-I movement in next 10 years with current laws in place.
|FY Received |EB3ROW I-140 Applications|
| 2012 | 6238 |
| 2013 | 5619 |
| 2014 | 6724 |
| 2015 | 10993 |
| 2016 | 21624 |
| 2017 | 22950 |
| 2018 | 26124 |
| 2019 | 30210 |
First I thought its a fake news but seeing that the publisher is NOT a fake one.
You are correct that the author doesn't have any clue about the US immigration.
Thanks Spec. It did appear fishy and I only brought it up because the Times of India group is a reliable news source
March Bulletin
-----------------
Final Action Dates :
EB1 = 01MAR15 ( 2 months fwd movement )
EB2 = 22MAY09 ( 3 days fwd movement )
EB3 = 15JAN09 ( 1 week fwd movement )
you are almost there
I scanned it and I thought the article gave statistic that may be true but misleading.
e.g. it said that last year approx 68K people applied and 58K got approved. Now on the face it looks like EB-India has no problem ....
But statistic is a thing that shows what's important and hides what's vital.
What's vital here is the fact that of the 68K applied - almost none was EB2 and 3 where people are waiting just to file 485 for over 10 years now!!
So 68K if true, almost entirely consisted of EB1 / 4/ 5.
And second - even of those 68K not all received GCs same year. In fact majority won't even if those categories are current (4/5 ... not so 1).
So the situation is like a government office with 2 doors. We make people wait at the first door and only let a few people in at door 2 and then we claim that the queue at door 2 is moving reasonably well. Well of course it will if you only let people in to door 2 to the extent you can process them.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
EB-3 ROW has a PD now and VO said it's not going to change in the foreseeable future. Does it mean EB-3 ROW has utilized the complete FY'20 numbers? EB-3 ROW as current even for Feb'20 so not that many cases can be pending before Jan 1, 2017.
EB-3 India will get adversely affected by this move.
I have a question for spectator and q regarding EB2 movement:
I'm just a little confused about the old pending inventory. Below is the link from July 2018 when there was still a little accountability and the inventory was still being published.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/..._July_2018.pdf
As you know the FAD for:
1) October 2019 bulletin was 12th May 2009
2) March 2020 it moved to 22nd May 2009 (I know it moved a whopping 10 days under current administration)
The 2018 PI says 1429 for May and 1411 for June. That brings the total to 2840. We are at the end of 6 months for this fiscal year i.e 2 quarters. Let’s forget about June for the moment, and also not going by exact numbers from P1 (those numbers are just for a perspective) but shouldn’t we have cleared May in 6 months of this fiscal year at the very least since the bulletin at the start of this fiscal year was already 12 days into May. I don’t believe that many upgrades have happened from EB3 to EB2 to even not clear May in first 2 quarters (1400 or 700 per quarter), since this inventory is not very old (it’s from 2018). Going by the current way it looks like EB2 might not clear June this year. I'm not a Pandit and have been wrong in the past because I thought EB3 would be ahead or at the same point as EB2 by 2019.
I really hope I’m wrong so I asked the question to get a better understanding. It’s like a black box and the numbers look cooked up. Little remaining accountability has completely disappeared. They also somehow have found a way to curb spillovers.
I think starvation aka natural attrition is the new policy for this administration, and they’re damn good at it since you have to provide no accountability or answers anymore. A wise man once sang: If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break. When the levee breaks I'll have no place to stay!!
Thanks in advance!
2009 Eb3I has 4422 approved I140 petitions. Even considering multiplication factor of 2.5, 6k visas/year will clear it in 2 years. Are we really getting that many visas? EB3I FAD has been in 2009 since Aug 2018. It even went up to July of 2009 for 3 months. Why did the backlog not reduce? Even CP numbers should be within the I140 numbers right?
Sorry what's the question? Whether EB2-I will clear June? I have stopped doing manual calculations long time back. Honestly I am amazed how the dates haven't moved for EB2-I ... it only means that a) the demand for EB2-I has been rock solid b) enough porting has already happened to keep the dates in 2009 May. Also explains the relative speed at which EB3-I has moved. Going forward those two will be more or less in tandem.
Regarding visibility - it is more of DHS' fault rather than DoS. DHS even stopped honoring the 485 filing dates ... so you can see how DHS and DoS are already not working in sync. The move to stop using service centers to clear 485 backlog is just yet another fight between DHS and DoS.
DoS folks are naturally pro-immigration because their work exposes them to outside world. DHS on the other hand is interested in building walls around America.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Dates moving to July 1,2009 doesn't mean all the applicants before that date were approved. If you look at the CP numbers, it's still going strong with 2008 or prior PDs. And, also we don't know if EB-3 India received 6K for FY 19 or will receive 6K for FY 20. We don't know how many are still left in 2008 or prior. There are a lot of unknowns at this point of time. Given the fact EB-3 ROW already fallen to backlog for this FY, it's very hard for EB-3 to go anywhere.
Thanks for the answer! I guess DOS and DHS not being in sync is the reason for slowness and no visibility. In fact it serves the DHS because their goal was to slow immigration down. DHS knows they don't have to be accountable and can cook up the numbers. They know no one can investigate them. This could eventually lead to EB2 not clearing even June 2009 this year, and EB3 is still 5 months behind. Well it all depends on the spill overs which have kind of completely dried up.
You are giving too much credit to DHS for being smart, cunning and manipulative. They are typical govt agency which has high % of inefficiency. Folks from China and India are paying for it which is small % to their overall workload.
Vets will say the same for Veterans Affairs in terms of inefficiency where actual life is at stake in terms of medical care.
This is awesome Spec. Thank you for putting this together. I have one Q. How come EB1-India got 9000 visas when EB1 ROW was not current in FY2019? How come EB1 India got this much spillover?
Thank you for the information.
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