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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #5751
    Pandit
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
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    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2018.pdf

    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2017.pdf

    This is for the year 2018. In that it has EB3 India numbers as 21K+. And, EB2 India has 13.5K.
    For the year 2017, EB3 has 21,962 and EB2 has 10,961. But between October 2017 to October 2018, EB3 PD had moved from 15 OCT 2006 to 1 Jan 2009. So, these number don't directly reflect PD movement IMO.

    I think these stats just reflect the immigration petitions filed as Consular processing. It doesn't have anything to do with current pending cases before the PD or cases ready to be approved.

  2. #5752
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    Something is really amiss. EB2 India 15K, EB3 India 20K, and EB1 India only 1282.

    If it's just before Nov 1,2019 PDs, it's unbelievable to see 15K EB2 are still pending before May,2009 and 20K EB3 are pending before Jan 1,2009. If so, why the dates are even in 2009?

    If it's only the filed applications, in which EB2 till May 1,2010 and EB3 till Apr 1,2010, then it short of makes some sense. Then, EB1 India filed applications can't be 1282 as mentioned in the report. CO himself told a couple of months ago that EB1 has about 17K applications pending.

    Things don't add up as is. I don't know how to interpret these numbers.
    Things definitely won’t add up as we don’t have enough information to make a good analysis.

  3. #5753
    Quote Originally Posted by anfu02 View Post
    Can you travel on AP after your priority date becomes current? My lawyer recommends against that. In the event your GC is approved while you are away, the lawyer said you may be denied re-entry. Is that true? One of my friend was in a similar situation 5 years ago and she re-entered on AP after GC approval. Is this a recent change? do any of you have personal experience?

    Thanks
    I have not read that rule anywhere. Typically lawyers have advised people to avoid travel for more than 2-3 weeks so that they can respond to RFEs immediately when dates become current. Else you may miss the window if the dates retrogress in the next bulletin .

  4. #5754
    Quote Originally Posted by anfu02 View Post
    Can you travel on AP after your priority date becomes current? My lawyer recommends against that. In the event your GC is approved while you are away, the lawyer said you may be denied re-entry. Is that true? One of my friend was in a similar situation 5 years ago and she re-entered on AP after GC approval. Is this a recent change? do any of you have personal experience?

    Thanks
    Technically the immigration officer can admit you even without a GC in your hand...s/he can only look it up your status in the system. But listen to your lawyer. If you are in backlogged categories, usually u will be greened within 30 days from being current. Why take chance?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  5. #5755

    Thumbs up Thanks Q

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Technically the immigration officer can admit you even without a GC in your hand...s/he can only look it up your status in the system. But listen to your lawyer. If you are in backlogged categories, usually u will be greened within 30 days from being current. Why take chance?
    ok, thanks for the reply.

    To Moveon:
    I got my AP approved today. My receipt date 07/08/19 filed with Nebraska center.

  6. #5756
    Quote Originally Posted by anfu02 View Post
    ok, thanks for the reply.

    To Moveon:
    I got my AP approved today. My receipt date 07/08/19 filed with Nebraska center.

    Hi Anfu02,
    My AP shows approved today on the website . Filed June 15th , approved yesterday . I guess they grant it for a year .

  7. #5757
    Hi Gurus,

    I have been silent member of this group for long time. I have 2010 PD EB2 and have EAD and AP for quite some time. I have renewal coming up and will send documents to USCIS next week. Meanwhile I am looking at promising opportunity in a start-up where I can make difference. Is there any specific steps that I need to do in switching jobs. I am planning to file for 485 supplement J. Do we also need to have AC-21 letter like we used to have in the past? Any other specific things that I need to consider?

    Thanks.

  8. #5758
    Quote Originally Posted by incredible View Post
    Hi Gurus,

    I have been silent member of this group for long time. I have 2010 PD EB2 and have EAD and AP for quite some time. I have renewal coming up and will send documents to USCIS next week. Meanwhile I am looking at promising opportunity in a start-up where I can make difference. Is there any specific steps that I need to do in switching jobs. I am planning to file for 485 supplement J. Do we also need to have AC-21 letter like we used to have in the past? Any other specific things that I need to consider?

    Thanks.
    If you are maintaining your H1B status (or other non EAD/AP status), then you need to apply and port the visa to new employer. 3 out of 4 applicants get the H1B Specialty occupation RFE.

    If you do not intend maintain the H1B status, then it is simple portability with EAD. New employer takes EAD and does a I-9 form. Depending on opinion of your legal experts, you may want to file for I485J. It all depends on how closely your job category is when compared to original PERM. If the SOC codes are the same and the job description is more or less same, then I don't see any issues.

  9. #5759
    Thank you for quick reply. I am not maintaining my H1. I did file 485 supplement J as response to RFE couple of years back and it took 6 months for it to get approved. Now if I change my employer do I need to file 485 supplement J? My attorney thinks no need till asked for by USCIS through an RFE. And in any case, I may not be able to file 485 supplement J and wait for its approval before joining new company (as it seems to take close to 6 months or so for that to happen). Now the only question is, should I file supplement J and immediately join the new organization or not worry about supplement J for now till RFE is issued b y USCIS.

    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    If you are maintaining your H1B status (or other non EAD/AP status), then you need to apply and port the visa to new employer. 3 out of 4 applicants get the H1B Specialty occupation RFE.

    If you do not intend maintain the H1B status, then it is simple portability with EAD. New employer takes EAD and does a I-9 form. Depending on opinion of your legal experts, you may want to file for I485J. It all depends on how closely your job category is when compared to original PERM. If the SOC codes are the same and the job description is more or less same, then I don't see any issues.

  10. #5760
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Technically the immigration officer can admit you even without a GC in your hand...s/he can only look it up your status in the system. But listen to your lawyer. If you are in backlogged categories, usually u will be greened within 30 days from being current. Why take chance?
    Q - Wont the guys pull the Medical RFE .... and delay the approval even though the date is current ?
    Family and I are contemplating a visit back home [this fall]. My belief is that even if i get current there will be an RFE due to expired medicals ....

    Agree with your advice that its always better to listen to your attorney

  11. #5761
    Quote Originally Posted by incredible View Post
    Thank you for quick reply. I am not maintaining my H1. I did file 485 supplement J as response to RFE couple of years back and it took 6 months for it to get approved. Now if I change my employer do I need to file 485 supplement J? My attorney thinks no need till asked for by USCIS through an RFE. And in any case, I may not be able to file 485 supplement J and wait for its approval before joining new company (as it seems to take close to 6 months or so for that to happen). Now the only question is, should I file supplement J and immediately join the new organization or not worry about supplement J for now till RFE is issued by USCIS.
    According to a recent Murthy article:
    The supplement J may be filed proactively by the beneficiary at any time. If not, prior to approving the I-485, the USCIS should issue a request for evidence (RFE) or notice of intent to deny (NOID) to request an updated supplement J.
    I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

    Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
    1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
    2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
    3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

    Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
    1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
    2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
    3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

  12. #5762
    Quote Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun View Post
    Q - Wont the guys pull the Medical RFE .... and delay the approval even though the date is current ?
    Family and I are contemplating a visit back home [this fall]. My belief is that even if i get current there will be an RFE due to expired medicals ....

    Agree with your advice that its always better to listen to your attorney
    I know someone personally who got approved with no medicals.

  13. #5763
    Pandit
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by incredible View Post
    Thank you for quick reply. I am not maintaining my H1. I did file 485 supplement J as response to RFE couple of years back and it took 6 months for it to get approved. Now if I change my employer do I need to file 485 supplement J? My attorney thinks no need till asked for by USCIS through an RFE. And in any case, I may not be able to file 485 supplement J and wait for its approval before joining new company (as it seems to take close to 6 months or so for that to happen). Now the only question is, should I file supplement J and immediately join the new organization or not worry about supplement J for now till RFE is issued b y USCIS.
    You don't have to file 485J proactively. The law doesn't require you to file it as soon as you change your job. You just wait for an RFE or NOID from USCIS.

  14. #5764
    Thank you for your detailed explanations. In this case the attorney that I have is not associated with any of my companies. I have him as my attorney for quite some years and he helped filing 485 supplement J when it was asked through RFE couple of years back. I am looking at the worst case scenarios of your "For" filing 485 Supplement J and see a good idea to file it in parallel after joining the company. I see in your note that you mentioning about port using AC21. I remember back in 2012 when I changed the job, my new company gave me an AC21 letter that I had to send to USCIS through my attorney. Is that process still possible. I thought that was not required any more and in-lieu of that the supplement J process has come up.
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    According to a recent Murthy article:

    I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

    Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
    1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
    2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
    3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

    Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
    1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
    2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
    3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

  15. #5765
    Thank you. That seems to be the opinion of my attorney as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    You don't have to file 485J proactively. The law doesn't require you to file it as soon as you change your job. You just wait for an RFE or NOID from USCIS.

  16. #5766
    Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.

    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    According to a recent Murthy article:

    I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

    Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
    1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
    2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
    3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

    Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
    1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
    2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
    3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

  17. #5767
    Quote Originally Posted by incredible View Post
    Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.
    I am not able to appreciate the need for supplement J when changing the job. Suppl J is provided when AOS is filed and is for future employer/employment. So why would that be needed when one joins any other employer before that.

  18. #5768
    Quote Originally Posted by incredible View Post
    Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.
    The reasons and opinions are purely personal in nature. There is no requirement in law to file I485J proactively as explained by everyone above.
    My reasoning was Nebraska SC had sent I485J and I693 RFEs for everyone. So I thought TSC might do something like this anytime and I did not want to be in the middle of jobs or looking for a job when that happens. I also thought Nov2009 might get current in 2 years. Filing I485J proactively might give 2 years.

  19. #5769
    Quote Originally Posted by excalibur123 View Post
    I am not able to appreciate the need for supplement J when changing the job. Suppl J is provided when AOS is filed and is for future employer/employment. So why would that be needed when one joins any other employer before that.
    If you think, an applicant is reasonably close to be current in 2 years or so, why wouldn't the applicant file for I485J proactively? In such cases you might get GC in mail without issues. There are many of us with I485 EADs waiting from 2012 onwards. At some point you might think that you are close. I did then, but not now. Of course the goal post keeps moving, and you wisen up at a later time.

  20. #5770
    Freshman
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    Can anyone here clarify this update on "When to file Adjustment of status from USCIS" ?

    https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-january-2020

    Looks like if I'm not mistaken for EB3-I they are accepting Final action dates till Feb 2010.

  21. #5771
    Quote Originally Posted by lville View Post
    Can anyone here clarify this update on "When to file Adjustment of status from USCIS" ?
    https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-january-2020
    Looks like if I'm not mistaken for EB3-I they are accepting Final action dates till Feb 2010.
    Wow! Good catch. So, the State Departments Visa bulletin states FA for EB3I as 01JAN09. The USCIS says use DF date of 01FEB10. If you have a good attorney, hopefully you can win the argument. Considering the current political environment, what are the odds of winning?

  22. #5772
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Wow! Good catch. So, the State Departments Visa bulletin states FA for EB3I as 01JAN09. The USCIS says use DF date of 01FEB10. If you have a good attorney, hopefully you can win the argument. Considering the current political environment, what are the odds of winning?
    There is a separate thread actively in progress on the Trackitt forum.
    But I believe there is an error done by someone in the UI.
    I also tried to contact the USCIS live chat and they claimed complete ignorance on that subject.
    According to the live chat person, the website is created by a different team.

  23. #5773
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
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    New Jersey
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ind2009 View Post
    There is a separate thread actively in progress on the Trackitt forum.
    But I believe there is an error done by someone in the UI.
    I also tried to contact the USCIS live chat and they claimed complete ignorance on that subject.
    According to the live chat person, the website is created by a different team.
    Interestingly, the date for filing was Feb 2010 for EB-3 India even between October and December, 2019. The URL for October date for filing is: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-october-2019. Similarly, for December: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...-december-2019

  24. #5774
    Quote Originally Posted by Immigo View Post
    Interestingly, the date for filing was Feb 2010 for EB-3 India even between October and December, 2019. The URL for October date for filing is: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-october-2019. Similarly, for December: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...-december-2019
    There is no change in filing date and Feb 2010 is correct for EB3 which has been open since Oct 2019. The confusion is created by the new section in the Final Action Dates for Employment 3rd and Other Worker Employment-Based Adjustment of Status Applications in the uscis.gov page for When to File Your Adjustment of Status Application. In this new section there is a mention for EB3 India, China and Philippines to use Final action dates from Filing dates below. Also EB3 Mexico Final action date is listed as current. While the filing date information is correct, Final action date information in the uscis.gov website is not.

  25. #5775
    Rethinking, on the logic for the new column, I believe there is a possibility that filing dates could remain open for select categories going forward in the coming months for both Family and Employment based cases.
    This will allow them to get new applications from select categories, instead of letting it be open for all of EB or FB.

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