Thanks. Again, makes sense.Originally Posted by Spectator
Let me re-phrase the question. While PERM filings have increased, the processed numbers have reduced. Is this a fair statement? If so, given the lag you mentioned in the previous post, does it, in some time reduce the ROW demand? Also, when is a PERM withdrawn? Is it when an employer decides not to go to I-140 stage?
Iatiam
In theory there should be a correlation, but it's probably not a simple one.
Withdrawn means the employer requested withdrawal of the PERM application before DOL could render a decision on it (either to certify or deny it). The only ones that can proceed to the I-140 stage are those that are Certified.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Based on the above backlog table, just to clear 2010, 2011 EB2, EB3 backlogs we need to have 120k visas (50k total applicants, 50k spouses, and if 1 kid per family)..is that correct Spec ?
These PERM numbers are for India + ROW. Looking at PERM stats which SPEC had put together and throwing in some of my analysis, the number of primary applicants (EB2 and EB3) from India who have priority dates in 2010 and 2011 are:
2010 - 22328
2011 - 29938
I have used case received year (A-XX) as an indicator for determining priority date. For ex: Count of A-10's (excluding Denied and Withdrawn) spanning across multiple years
DOL Report FY 2010 - 9157
DOL Report FY 2011 - 12958
DOL Report FY 2012 - 184
DOL Report FY 2013 - 15
DOL Report FY 2014 - 14
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Thanks!
1) Is the 2010 pending backlog for India ~ 22.5K above including active processed awaiting I-485 applications?
2) What's your estimate for similar backlog of applications left in 2009?
3) Also, out of curiosity, how many visas were allocated to EB2 and EB3 India in FY 2018 and 2019 and estimated for 2020 (million dollar question)
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Thanks!! Couple of quick questions on your EB2/3 India backlogs -
1) Does your backlog for 2010 - 22328 just primary and we need to factor in the multipliers for actuals?
2) Do you have a similar number for remaining cases in 2009?
3) How many visas EB2/3 India got in FY 2019, 2018?
The DOL report shows FY2010 - 28930 and FY2011 - 31273 (includes every PERM with no idea on porters and both husband and wife having their own PERMs_. How did you manage to get 22,328 and 29,938? Do you have info on porters or people who have got their GCs?
Priraj,
Spec has explained how to interpret his tables in the posts. I am, honestly, not smart enough to understand it. Also, the 2009 and 2010 numbers seemed too low. Again, I might be reading it all wrong. If you understand it, let us know.
Iatiam
Priraj
DOL report shows the cases for which a decision was made in FY 2010. However, its not necessary that all those cases were created (factor which determines the priority date for the case) within that FY. For ex: look at these cases in FY2010
CASE_NO APPLICATION_TYPE DECISION_DATE CASE_STATUS
A-08352-14939 PERM 11/9/2009 Certified-Expired
A-08352-14940 PERM 11/19/2009 Certified-Expired
The first two number after A (highlighted in RED) mean that these cases were created in year 2008 (hence will have a priority date in 2008) but were processed only in FY2010. I excluded all such cases to determine the exact number of process-ed cases for 2010 in FY2010 report and arrived at 9157. Likewise, a bunch of cases created in 2010 were actually in DOL FY2011 report (12,958 to be precise).
Its confusing math but I hope i am making sense here.
Also, my own case confirms this hypothesis. I have a priority date in April 2013 and my PERM case starts with A-13XXXX. However, my case didn't show up in DOL reports for FY2013 and FY2014. It's in FY2015 report as a decision was taken in Oct 2014 after an audit.
Whats this number for FY 2009
Iatiam
Here's what i have done so far:
Priority Year-----Total Cases Processed (India)
2008-------------15638
2009-------------16661
2010-------------22328
2011-------------29938
2012-------------36488
2013-------------28210
Again, it's doesn't give you an accurate picture of the people in backlog (they might have multiple PERMs, multiple I-140s etc). But at least a rough guesstimate on the size of queue
You'll find the accurate figures for numbers based on PD by A number from all the FY PERM data disclosures in this post.
No point reinventing the wheel and putting a lot of hard work in.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Based on the above calculations, assuming that just to clear 2010 EB-2 backlog (20k primary applicants) it will take another decade. if we club current EB2 backlog with 2009 all together takes 15 years.
Sounds about right. Since your PD is in 2011,you should consider plan B - like moving to India and coming back and applying in EB1C or self-petitioning for EB1A etc.
Unless there is legislative relief, people with 2011 or beyond have limited chance.
Without more data its hard to tell whether it will take 10 or 15 yrs. You never know
How many of these folks have abandoned their petitions
How many are for both husband and wife
How many left country and came back and filed in EB1
There might be cases where person may have married to USC or from other country and did Interfiling.
Too many unknowns to predict.
2010 PERM number is EB2-I + EB3-I. And worst case supply of GC is ~5600/year (EB2-I + EB3-I).
Earlier we have a ray of hope that in every election year they move the dates for a year or 2, but this time we don't have any chance. Any how it's game close for people who applied on or after Jan 2011 and if every thing goes well their US kids will apply for GC. Bad luck for Indian child who moved to this country whose age is greater than 5 and all should left to the home country at the same time.
About a year and a half ago I got my EAD for 2 years and AP for a year as I travelled to India while my AP was being processed. Anyway I applied for my AP renewal Mid June this year (5 months before expiry) and my application still shows "in-progress" .
I checked the Web site and it says
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Estimated time range | Form type | Receipt date for a case inquiry
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4 Months to 6 Months | Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit | May 29, 2019
5 Months to 7 Months | All other applicants for advance parole | April 29, 2019
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Which Category do I fall into as my application is "AOS(I-485) EB2-I" . My AP expires this week and I will not be able to travel outside the country in case of any emergency.
Any help in determining which category I fall into will help me estimate how long it will take me as Its moving at the rate of one day per day for the last month
How come my PERM has A-09---- but my priority date is Feb 2010? Is it an error?
You should fall under "All other applicants", I had applied on July 12th. I didn't realize they were still processing the ones from June.
Let's say we have the following -
Pending backlog (based on the calc above) -
1) EB2/3 (2009) - 7000
2) EB2/3 (2010) - 20,000
Total - 27000
With a multiplier of 2.5 to account for spouse and kids on an average - 27000 * 2.5 = 67,500 in total
Now with EB2 and EB3 combined we get 5600 visas allotted per year. Assuming a modest spillover of just 1,500 visas on a average per year per category we get 3K in spillover combined. That puts our overall visas granted to be ~ 9K per year. At that rate wouldn't it take close to 7.5 years to clear 2010?
Am I missing anything here? Thoughts??
Btw my PD is Dec 20 2010
In that case they are processing April and not June (Nebraska). This means that you cannot travel outside the country for 7 out of 12 months in a year. I had travelled to India for 2 weeks in 2017 when AP was in process and they rejected it due to travel while in progress and I reapplied . So I got AP for only one year and looks like AP renewals are for only one year and not two when you apply for a combo card.
Anyone else who filed for AP at Nebraska Mid of this year ?
Any predictions on how the PDs are going to move for the next few months? The next VB should come out this week.
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