EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jimmys]

If no category needs those spillover visa numbers, it will most likely end up with the most retrogressed country. But at this point of time, we don't know how the EB-2 ROW and EB-3 ROW will pan out. I suspect EB-2 ROW will yield to EB-2 India but I'm not sure about EB-3 ROW. The CO already told there are thousands of EB-3 ROW pending.

[iatiam]

If no category needs those spillover visa numbers, it will most likely end up with the most retrogressed country. But at this point of time, we don't know how the EB-2 ROW and EB-3 ROW will pan out. I suspect EB-2 ROW will yield to EB-2 India but I'm not sure about EB-3 ROW. The CO already told there are thousands of EB-3 ROW pending.

This is a fair point. However, EB1ROW is declining in demand per the last check-in which means it can also benefit EB2ROW. People in ROW who are tempted to go for EB2 due to retrogression will now hold off thereby benefiting EB2I. His point about EB3ROW in the last check-in is interesting. Perhaps this will end up with EB3I not getting and SO this year as well. Let's see what happens.

Iatiam

[jackbrown_890]

Iatiam... where are you getting 23000 SO number from?

[iatiam]

Iatiam... where are you getting 23000 SO number from?

Jackbrown, here is the screenshot from Spec's post

Attachment 1536

Spec tends to be a realist/pessimist when reporting these numbers

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Iatiam... where are you getting 23000 SO number from?

Due to Consular Processing figures for FB being low in FY2019. Any shortfall of the 226,000 allocation for FB in FY2019 is added to the EB allocation for FY2020.

See this post and this post.

[anfu02]

For Folks who already have their I-485 application pending and have their EAD/AP, what are the documents that need to be resubmitted other than the Medical examination when the filing dates become current? Thanks.

[monsieur]

with FB spillover in mind; any idea where EB2 and/or EB3 dates will reach?

Just changed jobs and new firm is filing in EB3 instead of EB2. if EB3 will stay ahead of EAD/AP I will let it file in EB3 otherwise will fight with my tooth and nails for EB-2 category.

[idliman]

For Folks who already have their I-485 application pending and have their EAD/AP, what are the documents that need to be resubmitted other than the Medical examination when the filing dates become current? Thanks.

You will get an RFE which will say what USCIS is looking for. The list includes:
1. I-693 Medicals
2. G-325A Biographic Information Form
3. G-28 Form (if attorney had changed)
4. I485 Supp J (if you had used AC21)
5. Any other concerns or supporting info asked in RFE.

[anfu02]

You will get an RFE which will say what USCIS is looking for. The list includes:
1. I-693 Medicals
2. G-325A Biographic Information Form
3. G-28 Form (if attorney had changed)
4. I485 Supp J (if you had used AC21)
5. Any other concerns or supporting info asked in RFE.

Thanks for the quick response.

[Priraj]

This is a fair point. However, EB1ROW is declining in demand per the last check-in which means it can also benefit EB2ROW. People in ROW who are tempted to go for EB2 due to retrogression will now hold off thereby benefiting EB2I. His point about EB3ROW in the last check-in is interesting. Perhaps this will end up with EB3I not getting and SO this year as well. Let's see what happens.

Iatiam

FB spillover is always distributed proportionate to the category allocation of the 140K visas which means 28.6%, 28.6%, 28.6%, 7.1% and 7.1% respectively to EB1,2,3,4,5. And within this country allocation kicks in which means 460 per country per category (0.286*.07*23K) and any unusued visas will make its lateral movement. The norms for EB2 is always less demanding than EB1 so not sure how you think people will choose EB1 instead of EB2?

[swaugh]

Does anyone know in which processing center the renewal of "AOS - Employment based" EAD happens? How would one know which processing center to select while checking the processing times before applying for a renewal?
Earliest one can apply EAD renewal is 180 days prior to expiration. Earliest one can apply AP renewal is 120 days prior to expiration.
Can one apply for a EAD/AP combo 180 days prior expiration? Or one has to apply EAD and AP renewal separately?

[mcmilers]

you can apply for EAD/AP combo 180 days prior to expiration. Thats what my company's lawyers did last time.

[gcwait]

Does anyone know in which processing center the renewal of "AOS - Employment based" EAD happens? How would one know which processing center to select while checking the processing times before applying for a renewal?
Earliest one can apply EAD renewal is 180 days prior to expiration. Earliest one can apply AP renewal is 120 days prior to expiration.
Can one apply for a EAD/AP combo 180 days prior expiration? Or one has to apply EAD and AP renewal separately?

Renewal application should go to the same service center which approved it last time unless you have moved to a different state which comes under a different jurisdiction.
There is no AP renewal. It is always a new AP. You can apply for a new AP at any time. EAD renewal can be applied 180 days before expiration at the earliest. You can apply for both EAD and AP at the same time to get a combo card.

[swaugh]

mcmilers/gcwiat - thank you for your response.
Last time, I sent to Dallas Lockbox and the application was routed to NBC. The processing center was chosen by USCIS. Are you saying that the renewal application will also go to NBC automatically?
If the priority date is not current(and will not be current anytime soon), how to request for a 2 year EAD/AP validity? Is this something we can do?
Thanks again for your responses.

[Nov2010]

Filing as a immediate relative of U.S. Citizen -

Friends,

Once the kid turns 21 he/she can sponsor for the parents under "immediate relative of U.S. Citizen" category and there is no waiting time for this category other than processing time.
Do we have some idea when we think this would start happening in large numbers? Ex: I've a 10 year old, and technically she can sponsor for me in the year 2031, provided I can survive until then
I think once we reach that point we should see a reduction in backlog. Just wanted to understand your thoughts I know this is a long short.

[mcmilers]

mcmilers/gcwiat - thank you for your response.
Last time, I sent to Dallas Lockbox and the application was routed to NBC. The processing center was chosen by USCIS. Are you saying that the renewal application will also go to NBC automatically?
If the priority date is not current(and will not be current anytime soon), how to request for a 2 year EAD/AP validity? Is this something we can do?
Thanks again for your responses.

Dont know about the processing center. I dont think you can ask for 2 years or 1 year on the app. form.

[newyorker123]

Filing as a immediate relative of U.S. Citizen -

Friends,

Once the kid turns 21 he/she can sponsor for the parents under "immediate relative of U.S. Citizen" category and there is no waiting time for this category other than processing time.
Do we have some idea when we think this would start happening in large numbers? Ex: I've a 10 year old, and technically she can sponsor for me in the year 2031, provided I can survive until then
I think once we reach that point we should see a reduction in backlog. Just wanted to understand your thoughts I know this is a long short.

A "LOT" can happen in 11 years.
Multiple governments will change, and multiple regulations will pass/fail.
I would advise you not to assume the success of this 11 year plan.
If you have long term plans for USA and are stuck in EB2/3 route, think of another country or EB1A/B/C route.

[lville]

Just got a mail from USCIS Form I-797, Notice of action.

Case type: I485J - CONFIRMATION OF BONA FIDE JOB OFFER OR REQUEST FOR JOB PORTABILITY INA SEC204(J)

Just to let you know When I filed my 485, I sent an employer verification letter with all other EAD/AP forms.

Notice Type: Receipt Notice Fee Waived


Just wanted to know what are they asking for ? BTW I have my Biometrics appointment this Thursday.

Should I be concerned?

Thank you.

[Spectator]

I've updated the FACTS & DATA PERM section to include the FY2019 Q4 data recently published.

[iatiam]

I've updated the FACTS & DATA PERM section to include the FY2019 Q4 data recently published.

Spec,

Thanks for the data. As always, extremely useful.

I am comparing PERM numbers from FY 2018 and FY2019 and seems like the numbers in FY 2018 (10955) is larger than FY 2019 (93865). Then why in the world did EB2I and EB3I receive SO in FY 2018 and not in FY 2019. What and I missing.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the data. As always, extremely useful.

I am comparing PERM numbers from FY 2018 and FY2019 and seems like the numbers in FY 2018 (109550) is larger than FY 2019 (93865). Then why in the world did EB2I and EB3I receive SO in FY 2018 and not in FY 2019. What and I missing.

Iatiam

Without looking at it much, I would guess it was because there's a lag time from PERM certification to I-485/CP approval that you're not factoring in.

Simplistically, if you said that was a year, then FY2017 PERM Certifications (87,609) was a relatively "lighter" year.

In FY2019 (and so far in FY2020) there have really been any PD2019 approvals (bar the odd outlier).

[iatiam]

Without looking at it much, I would guess it was because there's a lag time from PERM certification to I-485/CP approval that you're not factoring in.

Simplistically, if you said that was a year, then FY2017 PERM Certifications (87,609) was a relatively "lighter" year.

In FY2019 (and so far in FY2020) there have really been any PD2019 approvals (bar the odd outlier).

Makes sense.

I know you don't make predictions any more given the sparse data but directionally is it safe to say that PERM filings have slowed down and this could increase SO this FY.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Makes sense.

I know you don't make predictions any more given the sparse data but directionally is it safe to say that PERM filings have slowed down and this could increase SO this FY.

Iatiam

You've used the term PERM filings and they have not slowed down. There is a general upward trend in the number of PERM applications received by DOL YoY. There's a judgement to be made about how many might be new PERM for people who have already established a PD with a previous PERM.

The speed of processing by DOL and therefore how many are certified in a FY does vary. The relationship between the two of course affects the backlog of cases to be processed.

The table below shows the figures for the last 10 FY. Processed = Certified + Denied + Withdrawn.

- FY --- Filings - Certified - Processed -- Backlog
FY2010 -- 43,984 ---- 70,237 ---- 81,412 --- 29,993
FY2011 -- 67,383 ---- 59,863 ---- 73,207 --- 19,807
FY2012 -- 69,738 ---- 54,616 ---- 63,793 --- 22,860
FY2013 -- 72,462 ---- 35,202 ---- 44,147 --- 49,826
FY2014 -- 74,936 ---- 62,633 ---- 70,997 --- 59,901
FY2015 -- 87,644 ---- 78,938 ---- 88,994 --- 58,926
FY2016 -- 97,504 --- 115,933 --- 126,143 --- 30,941
FY2017 - 105,007 ---- 87,609 ---- 97,603 --- 38,819
FY2018 - 104,360 --- 109,550 --- 119,776 --- 24,052
FY2019 - 113,014 ---- 93,865 --- 102,655 --- 34,677


Sources:
Some early figures from Annual DOL report.
Filings & Backlog from DOL Selected Statistics reports.
Certified and Processed from DOL Disclosure Data (also matches Selected Statistics reports).

[qesehmk]

Spec this is a good post. If you have the certified column available please add it to your post.

[Spectator]

Spec this is a good post. If you have the certified column available please add it to your post.

Done.

Also updated a few of the early figures with numbers from a better source.