EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[qesehmk]

Is this a new pattern that we are seeing in the current administration to apply rules in a random fashion ?

They will argue its not random. And no this is not new. I have observed this since 2007.

[paramjit74]

Unfortunately the INA specifies the upper limit. It does not say they must allocate the visas. So the administration can take its sweet time to "VET" every single applicant.

Most of the people with May/June 2009 EB2I priority date have applied 485 years ago. They must have already been "VETTED".

[qesehmk]

Most of the people with May/June 2009 EB2I priority date have applied 485 years ago. They must have already been "VETTED".

Most would agree.

[mokrisin]

Unfortunately the INA specifies the upper limit. It does not say they must allocate the visas. So the administration can take its sweet time to "VET" every single applicant.

Any reason for such a slow pace on EB2I? Just one day? Any hope for any FB spill over in the near future? I am 6 days away but it seems too far..

[mcmilers]

Any reason for such a slow pace on EB2I? Just one day? Any hope for any FB spill over in the near future? I am 6 days away but it seems too far..

I think it is not the numbers. It is the administration and Miller, but I might be in minority here.

[rocketfast]

EB1-ROW's backlog will likely become a disaster for EB2-I and EB3-I as there will likely be a lot of downgrades which may gobble up any FB spillovers to EB3-ROW/EB2-ROW.

[qesehmk]

EB1-ROW's backlog will likely become a disaster for EB2-I and EB3-I as there will likely be a lot of downgrades which may gobble up any FB spillovers to EB3-ROW/EB2-ROW.

That is not quite so easy as they have to file a labor to get into EB2/3

[mokrisin]

Unfortunately the INA specifies the upper limit. It does not say they must allocate the visas. So the administration can take its sweet time to "VET" every single applicant.

Any reason for such a slow pace on EB2I? Just one day? Any hope for any FB spill over in the near future? I am 6 days away but it seems too far..

[rocketfast]

Any reason for such a slow pace on EB2I? Just one day? Any hope for any FB spill over in the near future? I am 6 days away but it seems too far..

Every month EB2-I gets 233 GCs. It is likely that last year not everyone before the PD got their GC. This is the same thing that happened in the beginning of last FY.

Again, the same reason CO predicted that EB3-I will not move till the first quarter is over - which means there are likely 700 GC demand before Jan 1 2009.

[mokrisin]

I agree with the ~700 per quarter. But even with that number of ~200/month should we not expect more movement for EB2I? I thought of atleast 2 to 3 days movement every month

Every month EB2-I gets 233 GCs. It is likely that last year not everyone before the PD got their GC. This is the same thing that happened in the beginning of last FY.

Again, the same reason CO predicted that EB3-I will not move till the first quarter is over - which means there are likely 700 GC demand before Jan 1 2009.

[Raj0687]

EB1-ROW's backlog will likely become a disaster for EB2-I and EB3-I as there will likely be a lot of downgrades which may gobble up any FB spillovers to EB3-ROW/EB2-ROW.

Why would the spill over be applied to ROW, is it not applied to the most backlogged?
how did they split 18K FB spill over in 2013?

[jimmys]

If you see July 18 I-485 inventory, from may only 5k-6k people are left in the inventory, by end of FY 2020, all the 2009 EB2 will be cleared. I assume many people might have been downgraded to Eb3, it definitely clear the 2009 backlog in a year or two.

With only annual quota, the EB2-I will take another few years to move into 2010. Downgrading is not going to accelerate if EB2-I stays ahead of EB3-I.

[jimmys]

EB1-ROW's backlog will likely become a disaster for EB2-I and EB3-I as there will likely be a lot of downgrades which may gobble up any FB spillovers to EB3-ROW/EB2-ROW.

Can they jump queues just like that? Don't they need PERM for EB-2/EB-3 filings?

[rocketfast]

Why would the spill over be applied to ROW, is it not applied to the most backlogged?
how did they split 18K FB spill over in 2013?

It is not applied to the most backlogged is what I gather from this very informative post:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post62399

Can they jump queues just like that? Don't they need PERM for EB-2/EB-3 filings?

I think EB1-A and EB1-B can do EB2-NIW without PERM. EB1-C need the PERM. Every Tom, Dick and Harry get their PERM approved in EB2/EB3. I don't see why someone that from EB1-C can't. It does add a few months to get it done.

[jimmys]

Every Tom, Dick and Harry get their PERM approved in EB2/EB3. I don't see why someone that from EB1-C can't. It does add a few months to get it done.

Salary requirement. The PERM managerial salaries are much higher, usually. Probably the ROW candidates are promised GC in lieu of more salary.

[Dondraper]

woooh 1 day move in 1 month.

[Dondraper]

but the current admin wants to VET everything to death. I think this is some kind of soft way of stopping immigration.

[Spectator]

Why would the spill over be applied to ROW, is it not applied to the most backlogged?
how did they split 18K FB spill over in 2013?

Because it is not spillover in the sense you mean. Spillover between EB categories is described in INA 203(b) and spillover to 7% limited Countries is described in INA 202(a)(5).

The unused FB visas from the previous FY form part of the determination of the Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants in INA 201(d), which says:

(d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants

(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-

(A) 140,000, plus

(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).

(2)(A) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.

(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 203(b) of this title during that fiscal year.

(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 203(a) of this title (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.

So, if there were 20,000 unused FB visas from the previous FY, then the Worldwide level for EB would become 140,000 + 20,000 = 160,000

Then INA 203(b) determines that the computed Worldwide level for EB is split:

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%

Any calculation for the 7% per Country limit is made after the Worldwide levels have been determined.

As for FY2013, this is the document of rough numbers published by DOS. Ultimately, the actual figure was 158,466
Attachment 1533

[lville]

Looks like all the dates are current except for EB2 India/China and all EB1's. They should already KNOW demand data for EB2 and Eb3. So why is USCIS still accepting filing dates ? Not that I'm complaining considering I got to file my 485 for the first time under EB2-I (May 22, 2009). But just curious.

[Dondraper]

With only annual quota, the EB2-I will take another few years to move into 2010. Downgrading is not going to accelerate if EB2-I stays ahead of EB3-I.

it looks more like a decade than a few years to move dates to 2010.. 2010 has a lot of folks. It will probably come to a grand halt. At this point downgrade isnt going to change the slowdown. Slow down in the name of vetting will affect the line for decades.

[harinatham14]

Hi Gurus,

My PD - August 2010 (EB3 - India)

I don't have any hope for my GC in next 2 or 3 years minimum. At least, If I get a chance to file my I-485 that's a big relief. So that will receive EAD/AP

Any predictions, when can I expect to file my I-485?

Thanks

[Jonty Rhodes]

Hi Gurus,

My PD - August 2010 (EB3 - India)

I don't have any hope for my GC in next 2 or 3 years minimum. At least, If I get a chance to file my I-485 that's a big relief. So that will receive EAD/AP

Any predictions, when can I expect to file my I-485?

Thanks

I would say probably somewhere around 5-6 years. That's when you should be able to file I-485. When you get an actual green card is another matter. Right now, people who are filing I-485 are waiting more than a year to get the green card due to mandatory interview requirements.

My date is in May, 2011 and I am expecting to get current in 11 years.

Now having said that, 5 years is a long timeframe so there is always a possibility that relief may come in form of some kind of a limited or comprehensive immigration reform or some kind of legislation that goes through Congress or may be DOS may advance filing dates and USCIS would respect those dates so at least we can get EAD. Obviously, this is all wishful thinking and things may not change at all and we all may just continue to wait eternally.

But I personally believe that we have reached a critical level where people in backlog are now very much aware at their own plight, especially with aging out children and they will be persistent in their efforts to get something done for their own sake and for their children's sake because they know that by doing nothing, they will continue to suffer.

[Dondraper]

Any one beyond Mid 2010 India will probably retire before they get GC.

[FarAwayfromGC]

Any one beyond Mid 2010 India will probably retire before they get GC.

Well said , TRUE

[jimmys]

I would say probably somewhere around 5-6 years. That's when you should be able to file I-485. When you get an actual green card is another matter. Right now, people who are filing I-485 are waiting more than a year to get the green card due to mandatory interview requirements.

My date is in May, 2011 and I am expecting to get current in 11 years.

Now having said that, 5 years is a long timeframe so there is always a possibility that relief may come in form of some kind of a limited or comprehensive immigration reform or some kind of legislation that goes through Congress or may be DOS may advance filing dates and USCIS would respect those dates so at least we can get EAD. Obviously, this is all wishful thinking and things may not change at all and we all may just continue to wait eternally.

But I personally believe that we have reached a critical level where people in backlog are now very much aware at their own plight, especially with aging out children and they will be persistent in their efforts to get something done for their own sake and for their children's sake because they know that by doing nothing, they will continue to suffer.

Though I tend to think 5-6 years is a stretch for EB-3 India Aug 2010 PD for filing I-485, I won't rule out the possibility.

My PD is EB-3/EB-2 July 2009 (I have two I-140s) and didn't get a chance to file in 2012. In FY 2014 last quarter, the EB-2 dates moved to May 1,2009. I was disappointed then and thought I will be current in October 2014 at the latest. Dead wrong. What actually happened was, I became current only in October 2018 in EB-3. Yes, it only took 4 years .