EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[iatiam]

Is there any possibility that EB2I didn't get 2800 visas in 2019?

How are you getting 2800 cases from 2018 inventory?

If you take July 2018 inventory and add the cases till April 2009, you will get 2260 cases. EB2I dates were 8th May, 2009 in September and that is the 5th working day of a 20 working day month. So that's 25% of May 2009 cases which is about 360 cases. This takes the total to 2620 cases. I don't know how many CP cases are, but if you add 10% more, you get about 2,900 cases. When the dates started moving last year, EB2I was still ahead of EB3I, so you cannot discount EB3I to EB2I upgrading cases. Add the unknown number of people who filed for the first time, the number increases further. You can take credit for the time between the inventory publication (July 2018) to visas available for the FY. This can vary from 500 to 700 depending on how you look at it.

Iatiam

[excalibur123]

Like I said, you cannot average. Take the entire inventory and add up till the date and you will get 2800

Not sure is that the right way to calculate.

The dates reached 15 Mar 2009 in Jul 2018 and stayed there for August too. It retrogressed in September.

These are folks who already had EAD and didn't need the interview. So they had full 2 months to get just the card. So why would not the inventory clear out till at least 15 Mar in FY2018 itself?

On the flip side there would have been EB3 porters from Dec 2008 - Mar 2009 who would have filed during those 2 months but may have been counted in FY2019 due to longer processing for them.

[iatiam]

Not sure is that the right way to calculate.

The dates reached 15 Mar 2009 in Jul 2018 and stayed there for August too. It retrogressed in September.

These are folks who already had EAD and didn't need the interview. So they had full 2 months to get just the card. So why would not the inventory clear out till at least 15 Mar in FY2018 itself?

On the flip side there would have been EB3 porters from Dec 2008 - Mar 2009 who would have filed during those 2 months but may have been counted in FY2019 due to longer processing for them.

I don't think there is a right way to calculate at all especially given the data is not trustworthy. However, it's fairly easy to say that EB2I got the congressionally mandated 2800 visas than put a lot of faith on calculation assumptions and governmental data.

Iatiam

[lville]

PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I.

Just got an email from my lawyer that my case (EAD/AP) will be filed today with USCIS. I've also submitted medicals with all my documents. Just wondering what happens next. Do I get any mail back from USCIS regarding my case ? Any other things that I need to be prepared for ?

Thank you

[GCGCGCGC]

With all do respect, can you start a new thread to discuss your situation.

This thread is for predicting the movement.

Thank you.

Admin: can you please move these posts to a new thread

Sorry

Admins, Please move this new thread.

[qesehmk]

Sorry

Admins, Please move this new thread.

I will do this today. But please be mindful of my time too and post in appropriate places.

As old folks have moved on we need some new moderators. May I ask a few moderators who can moderate new content or move things to their appropriate place. Please send me a private message.

[jimmys]

PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I.

Just got an email from my lawyer that my case (EAD/AP) will be filed today with USCIS. I've also submitted medicals with all my documents. Just wondering what happens next. Do I get any mail back from USCIS regarding my case ? Any other things that I need to be prepared for ?

Thank you

In the next 1-2 months, you will get a notice for fingerprints.
In the next 3-12 months, you will get your EAD, AP, and interview scheduled in no particular order (Hopefully your background check doesn't take long).

[GCGCGCGC]

I will do this today. But please be mindful of my time too and post in appropriate places.

As old folks have moved on we need some new moderators. May I ask a few moderators who can moderate new content or move things to their appropriate place. Please send me a private message.

Thank you Q

[lville]

In the next 1-2 months, you will get a notice for fingerprints.
In the next 3-12 months, you will get your EAD, AP, and interview scheduled in no particular order (Hopefully your background check doesn't take long).

Lol. I hope so. I have an arrest record but I was found not-guilty and my case was dismissed and expunged. So hopefully it doesn't take long to get my background cleared. I made sure to send court papers with my I-485 application that was filed this week to uscis.

[drop2ocean]

EB3I PD: June 15th 2010. What are my chances of being able to file for EAD in 2020 ? ( considering a job move so asking)

[rocketfast]

EB3I PD: June 15th 2010. What are my chances of being able to file for EAD in 2020 ? ( considering a job move so asking)

There is a likelihood of ~7000 unused FB green cards coming to EB3ROW this year (we will have a better idea in 10 days). But we do not know what will happen to that extr a 7000 GCs. Will it all be gobbled up by EB3ROW? Or will it all come to EB3-I? If the latter, there is a small likelihood of EB3-I filing dates reaching June 2010.

[mokrisin]

I am trying to understand. Is this the spill over from 2019 applied in 2020? When will this applied? You have mentioned better idea in 10 days, based on what?

I am asking to see if there would any little movement on EB2I in the near future due to the spillover.

[mokrisin]

any comments on the questions below?

Just trying to understand when my PD -18-May-2009 EB2I would be current. Was there any spill over given to EB2I in September? Any insight on the pending inventory estimates as of Oct 1st 2019?

[Dondraper]

There is a likelihood of ~7000 unused FB green cards coming to EB3ROW this year (we will have a better idea in 10 days). But we do not know what will happen to that extr a 7000 GCs. Will it all be gobbled up by EB3ROW? Or will it all come to EB3-I? If the latter, there is a small likelihood of EB3-I filing dates reaching June 2010.

June 2010. Lol. that is not even possible. They are soo many from 2009

[drop2ocean]

I am talking about filing dates ( which are already in Feb 2010).

Q, Spec,

Appreciate if you can comment on the EB3I filing dates movement in the next year ?

[vbollu]

June 2010. Lol. that is not even possible. They are soo many from 2009

If you see July 18 I-485 inventory, from may only 5k-6k people are left in the inventory, by end of FY 2020, all the 2009 EB2 will be cleared. I assume many people might have been downgraded to Eb3, it definitely clear the 2009 backlog in a year or two.

[akshaya8]

Is there a chance this year EB2/3 India getting more numbers based on 7% combined quota of FB and EB together?

As all EB India categories are retrogressed so it is expected to use exactly 7% in EB and usage in FB is slightly below 7%.
In FY 2018 FB India consumed 14,935 vs quota of 15,820 so there is under usage of 800 in FB category. Prior years EB1/Eb5 consumed more than 7% due to horizontal spillover so EB2/3 didn't get additional numbers and but now Eb1/Eb5 also retrogressed there is possibility to get additional numbers for Eb2/3. is this assumption correct?

Also if there is additional 7000 spillover from FB to EB for FY20 that will get additional 490 ( 7% 0f 7000).

I know these are small numbers 800+500 = 1300 but this number is half of Eb2 Quota.
Also Spillover of 7000 from FB to EB may cause some horizontal spillover for Eb2/3. Experts please provide your opinion on this !

[mokrisin]

I thought the spill overs don't have the 7% limit but allotted to the most regressed country in each category. I am ignorant in this area.. ignore if i am dreaming about that.

Is there a chance this year EB2/3 India getting more numbers based on 7% combined quota of FB and EB together?

As all EB India categories are retrogressed so it is expected to use exactly 7% in EB and usage in FB is slightly below 7%.
In FY 2018 FB India consumed 14,935 vs quota of 15,820 so there is under usage of 800 in FB category. Prior years EB1/Eb5 consumed more than 7% due to horizontal spillover so EB2/3 didn't get additional numbers and but now Eb1/Eb5 also retrogressed there is possibility to get additional numbers for Eb2/3. is this assumption correct?

Also if there is additional 7000 spillover from FB to EB for FY20 that will get additional 490 ( 7% 0f 7000).

I know these are small numbers 800+500 = 1300 but this number is half of Eb2 Quota.
Also Spillover of 7000 from FB to EB may cause some horizontal spillover for Eb2/3. Experts please provide your opinion on this !

[iatiam]

I thought the spill overs don't have the 7% limit but allotted to the most regressed country in each category. I am ignorant in this area.. ignore if i am dreaming about that.

Limits do apply. Spec has a good post on this. Recommend reading it

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

I thought the spill overs don't have the 7% limit but allotted to the most regressed country in each category. I am ignorant in this area.. ignore if i am dreaming about that.

Spill over reached at category level is applied to the most regressed country. But DoS has taken the definition of 7% limit as quota and have been applying that across EB+FB combined as well as giving away spillover visas randomly to various countries and categories under the pretext that they have been underutilized their limit in other categories.

This kind of throws EB2/3 India's dreams off once a while. Case in point you can see S Korea and Philippines have significantly over utilized their limits without being nearly as retrogressed as India in EB2/3. Philippines in particular would be nowhere near they are unless DoS/USCIS stole EB3I visas and gave it to them because EB3 Philippines underutilized in FB or something like that.

[Dondraper]

Spill over reached at category level is applied to the most regressed country. But DoS has taken the definition of 7% limit as quota and have been applying that across EB+FB combined as well as giving away spillover visas randomly to various countries and categories under the pretext that they have been underutilized their limit in other categories.

This kind of throws EB2/3 India's dreams off once a while. Case in point you can see S Korea and Philippines have significantly over utilized their limits without being nearly as retrogressed as India in EB2/3. Philippines in particular would be nowhere near they are unless DoS/USCIS stole EB3I visas and gave it to them because EB3 Philippines underutilized in FB or something like that.

Is this a new pattern that we are seeing in the current administration to apply rules in a random fashion ?

[skpanda]

Any rumors why Visa Bulletin is still not out?

[EB32010]

Nov bulletin released. No change for any category except EB2 which moved one day.

[lville]

Even with new fiscal year and new set of numbers, why is it moving just by 1 day. Im just glad they are accepting Filing dates and for the first time in life I was able to apply for EAD/AP. My PD is EB2-I May, 22 2009 and I’m only 10 days away. God when is it going past May 23 2009 ?

[qesehmk]

Unfortunately the INA specifies the upper limit. It does not say they must allocate the visas. So the administration can take its sweet time to "VET" every single applicant.

Even with new fiscal year and new set of numbers, why is it moving just by 1 day. Im just glad they are accepting Filing dates and for the first time in life I was able to apply for EAD/AP. My PD is EB2-I May, 22 2009 and I’m only 10 days away. God when is it going past May 23 2009 ?