EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[TheLureoftheGreen]

The calculations below assume that EB2-I and EB3-I are one queue - I think it is a good assumption atleast for people with PD in March 2011. So worst case supply for EB2+EB3 is 5600 GCs a year.

* EB2-I remaining in 2009 after May = ~9000.

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

* India based Perms applied in 2010 (that got approved) = 22,361 ; GC demand = ~44,500. Here, the demand is backloaded to the second half of the year.

* India based Perms applied in 2011 (that got approved) = 30,024; So, first 3 month GC demand is ~15000 (7500 * 2).

So total worst case demand is 71,500.

I am making an assumption that 10,000 has been demand destructed or duplicate filings. I think the duplicate filings increase in later years, but is not so much in 2010. I vaguely remember that the conclusion here was that ~6000 people were porting from EB3-I to EB2-I every year in early 2010s . I also think based on consular demand in EB3-I last year, it is fair to assume that the people that moved back to India will come back via Desi Bodyshopping companies.

So wait time is 61,500/5600 = 11 years.

I'd like to estimate my wait time based on my EB2I priority of July 7, 2009. But I do not know the sources to access some of this information. Can you please point me to a thread that explains this calculation in greater detail, and identifies the sources?

Specifically, I need to know the following:

1. Where can I find the GC Demand from May 12, 2009 through July 8, 2009?

2. How is this demand different from, say EB2 India remaining between May 12, 2009 and July 8, 2009? Is the source for "EB2 India remaining" the dated July 2018 Pending I-485 Inventory?

3. I see from Permchecker.com that 1,851 Indian beneficiaries' petitions were certified (between May 12th and July 7th). Is this a fair source for use with with the calculations you illustrate?

Thanks!

[iatiam]

I'd like to estimate my wait time based on my EB2I priority of July 7, 2009. But I do not know the sources to access some of this information. Can you please point me to a thread that explains this calculation in greater detail, and identifies the sources?

Specifically, I need to know the following:

1. Where can I find the GC Demand from May 12, 2009 through July 8, 2009?

2. How is this demand different from, say EB2 India remaining between May 12, 2009 and July 8, 2009? Is the source for "EB2 India remaining" the dated July 2018 Pending I-485 Inventory?

3. I see from Permchecker.com that 1,851 Indian beneficiaries' petitions were certified (between May 12th and July 7th). Is this a fair source for use with with the calculations you illustrate?

Thanks!

The 485 inventory is your best bet. While some people argue the data is old or inaccurate, this is the best set of data we have. If you look at the period between May 2009 and July 2009, the pending inventory numbers are fairly consistent. If we allocate about 3,000 visas per year per country per EB category, you can see that your dates will be current this FY. Of course there are other factors: there might be duplicate filing, abandoned cases, FB spillover or reverse porting. All these are positive things. Negative factor is those people who could never file for 485 before and who are filing or those pesky consular processing cases. Either ways, it's very safe to say you will be current this FY.

Iatiam

[rocketfast]

Specifically, I need to know the following:

1. Where can I find the GC Demand from May 12, 2009 through July 8, 2009?

I don't think anyone knows a data source that can accurately provide you such micro-details.

2. Is the source for "EB2 India remaining" the dated July 2018 Pending I-485 Inventory?

Yes. For someone like me who has a priority date a couple of years down the line, a few hundred here and there does not make a difference.

3. I see from Permchecker.com that 1,851 Indian beneficiaries' petitions were certified (between May 12th and July 7th). Is this a fair source for use with with the calculations you illustrate?

I think that gives the people that were certified during that time. But PD is when people applied at a particular time. Since 2 applicants that apply on the same day can get PERM certified at different dates, you can't use it.

[canada]

The calculations below assume that EB2-I and EB3-I are one queue - I think it is a good assumption atleast for people with PD in March 2011. So worst case supply for EB2+EB3 is 5600 GCs a year.

* EB2-I remaining in 2009 after May = ~9000.

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

* India based Perms applied in 2010 (that got approved) = 22,361 ; GC demand = ~44,500. Here, the demand is backloaded to the second half of the year.

* India based Perms applied in 2011 (that got approved) = 30,024; So, first 3 month GC demand is ~15000 (7500 * 2).

So total worst case demand is 71,500.

I am making an assumption that 10,000 has been demand destructed or duplicate filings. I think the duplicate filings increase in later years, but is not so much in 2010. I vaguely remember that the conclusion here was that ~6000 people were porting from EB3-I to EB2-I every year in early 2010s . I also think based on consular demand in EB3-I last year, it is fair to assume that the people that moved back to India will come back via Desi Bodyshopping companies.

So wait time is 61,500/5600 = 11 years.

EB2 India after May has 7494 cases as per PI --Did you get 9000 because of adding consular cases? Curious to know. Thanks

[rocketfast]

EB2 India after May has 7494 cases as per PI --Did you get 9000 because of adding consular cases? Curious to know. Thanks

When I said "After May", I meant, "After May 1st". Looks like many guys in July-Aug-Sept 2009 are very jittery about even 100 hundred here and there!

[TheLureoftheGreen]

The 485 inventory is your best bet. While some people argue the data is old or inaccurate, this is the best set of data we have. If you look at the period between May 2009 and July 2009, the pending inventory numbers are fairly consistent. If we allocate about 3,000 visas per year per country per EB category, you can see that your dates will be current this FY. Of course there are other factors: there might be duplicate filing, abandoned cases, FB spillover or reverse porting. All these are positive things. Negative factor is those people who could never file for 485 before and who are filing or those pesky consular processing cases. Either ways, it's very safe to say you will be current this FY.

Iatiam

Thank you, Iatiam! Re: Consular Processing, I recall Spec's post noting that, for EB2I, CP represents a relatively (compared to EB3) small proportion of total GCs. I believe just about 5 percent... However, I do think that there are more pending cases in May-June than there were in March-April, which cleared in FY18. Not sure I'll be current without any spills, or accounting for duplicates you mention, given such a large chunk of May-June pending cases ahead of me.

[this2shallpass]

The period October - August in FY2019 had 25,235 fewer Consular issued visas for FB than the same period in FY2018.

Given that around 94% of the total approvals for FB are made at Consulates rather than via AOS and an I-485, this is a promising sign.

We'll know the final number of CP approvals in about a month, but the AOS figures probably won't be available until sometime in January at the earliest.

You can follow the Consular Processing figures in this thread.

Thanks spec . You are a great source of information.
What is your position on the removal of country caps and s386 ? Just curious

[Kraksi123]

Question to experts and other experienced people on this forum.

My PD is August 2009 (EB2I) and wondering if downgrading my case from EB2 to EB3 category will be possible? I have an approved PERM in EB3 from my previous employer and the date of filling for I485 in EB3 category is past my priority date (August 2009). Let me know if I can file my I-485 application concurrently with the new EB3 I-140.

TIA

[deedee]

Hi rocketfast, did CO say that EB3 may reach feb2010 at the end of this FY? When did he indicate this? Looks like I have missed that completely.

Hi folks.. Does any one have information on what CO said about EB3 reaching Feb2010 by the end of FY? Thanks in advance.

[kb2013]

Hi folks.. Does any one have information on what CO said about EB3 reaching Feb2010 by the end of FY? Thanks in advance.

< >

[rocketfast]

Hi folks.. Does any one have information on what CO said about EB3 reaching Feb2010 by the end of FY? Thanks in advance.

Last year in a AILA meeting, CO talked about his strategy for filing dates (currently at Feb 2010 for EB3-I). He mentioned that he keeps it at a date to which _he thinks_ the category will progress by the end of the year. He does get it wrong sometimes/often because of spillovers or lack thereof. He does go a little aggressive sometimes to build demand. But once the demand is built, he has a fair idea.

[deedee]

It will not. Don't read too much into statements and assumptions. Theoretically, since a filing date of Feb 2010 was accepted, the assumption was that the Final action date should reach that date by end of the year. Practically it does not... By the same theory it should have reached Apr 2010 last year...

Last year in a AILA meeting, CO talked about his strategy for filing dates (currently at Feb 2010 for EB3-I). He mentioned that he keeps it at a date to which _he thinks_ the category will progress by the end of the year. He does get it wrong sometimes/often because of spillovers or lack thereof. He does go a little aggressive sometimes to build demand. But once the demand is built, he has a fair idea.

kb2013, rocketfast - Thanks for your explanations!

[excalibur123]

Hello folks,

How times have changed ! Not so long back people here were talking about whether EB3 would reach mid-2010 or not. But EB3 consular processing came from left field and upended all predictions.

I have a curious observation to which you may know the answer - EB2 moved by only1 month and 12 days in whole of FY2019. (5 days of Mar 2009, Whole April, 8 days of May).

If you look at Pending Inventory, and use averaging it should use only 1160 visas. One can add following unknowns to this -
1. EB3 porters who did not or could not use their own category for filing, so used EB2.
2. Spouses of EB2 filers who married since the original filing and therefore filing for adjustment the first time.

But would these categories explain the gap of 2800 - 1160 = 1640 visas ??! What am I missing here?

Cheers.

[jimmys]

You're not missing anything here. The inventory data have never been accurate. The USCIS does not properly update the inventory data. And, there's a couple of hundred visas issued by consulates as well.

[excalibur123]

You're not missing anything here. The inventory data have never been accurate. The USCIS does not properly update the inventory data. And, there's a couple of hundred visas issued by consulates as well.

The inventory for EB2 2009 has been known for many years - the numbers have been "nearly" stable in all data publications.

There has to be an another explanation for missing numbers.

[mokrisin]

Yes, the dates moved only by 42 days.. but doesn't mean that was the only period of applications approved - approvals were from the beginning of time to May 8th.. There were pending applications prior to April and also EB3 porting keep happening all along... though the period was open for a long time, there were late EB3 porters even very recently...

It is a scary metrics.. 1600 visas added to the queue after July 2018... Where you getting the 1160 number? It is much more than that if you look at July inventory - I would say 2300 - July to Sep 2018 approvals.. some where around 2000??...

Hello folks,

How times have changed ! Not so long back people here were talking about whether EB3 would reach mid-2010 or not. But EB3 consular processing came from left field and upended all predictions.

I have a curious observation to which you may know the answer - EB2 moved by only1 month and 12 days in whole of FY2019. (5 days of Mar 2009, Whole April, 8 days of May).

If you look at Pending Inventory, and use averaging it should use only 1160 visas. One can add following unknowns to this -
1. EB3 porters who did not or could not use their own category for filing, so used EB2.
2. Spouses of EB2 filers who married since the original filing and therefore filing for adjustment the first time.

But would these categories explain the gap of 2800 - 1160 = 1640 visas ??! What am I missing here?

Cheers.

[jimmys]

The inventory for EB2 2009 has been known for many years - the numbers have been "nearly" stable in all data publications.

There has to be an another explanation for missing numbers.

Maybe I should have been more clearer in my previous post. The inventory data itself is a ballpark figure. Besides, USCIS doesn't properly update addition/deletion to the existing number. At any point of time, it's not a hard number to compare against.

If you check annual visa statistics from DOS in a month or so, EB2I would have received all the allocated visas.

[excalibur123]

I just averaged the pending inventory numbers for March, April and May for the days it moved in 2019 and that’s what resulted to 1160.

Yes I understand there would be filers prior to that date but they would be miniscule. After all wouldn’t they have filed before, and also if they are ones who left the country they would be counted in consular processing.

Counting the consular processing (200) and some additional dependents now added to original filers (say 200), it is still around 1200 numbers which could have gone to only eb3 porters. That seems too high.

So like jimmys said the inventory data is nowhere close to reality. Other explanation is not even 2800 visas are being given.

[mokrisin]

Agree and it is a scary scenario. Based on the 2018 inventory data I estimate about 70 applications per day in May 2009. But based on the scenario you have listed it could be 140-150 per day... If true, we can't expect more than 1 or 2 days of movement per bulletin for a long time.

I just averaged the pending inventory numbers for March, April and May for the days it moved in 2019 and that’s what resulted to 1160.

Yes I understand there would be filers prior to that date but they would be miniscule. After all wouldn’t they have filed before, and also if they are ones who left the country they would be counted in consular processing.

Counting the consular processing (200) and some additional dependents now added to original filers (say 200), it is still around 1200 numbers which could have gone to only eb3 porters. That seems too high.

So like jimmys said the inventory data is nowhere close to reality. Other explanation is not even 2800 visas are being given.

[srimurthy]

So as long as their CPA age is below 21 (and they are unmarried), they can still be included as dependents in you i-485 application. And to the best of my knowledge (and whats mentioend here : https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/chil...protection-act), changing their status to F1 does not impact this.

But its worth checking with a lawyer.

Good to hear, so it looks like the I140 approval date to when we have a visa availability say around 10 years for all can be subtracted.
Meanwhile the kids should remain unmarried. The flip side is it may be faster if they get married to a citizen and get the GC there directly :-)

[iatiam]

I just averaged the pending inventory numbers for March, April and May for the days it moved in 2019 and that’s what resulted to 1160.

Yes I understand there would be filers prior to that date but they would be miniscule. After all wouldn’t they have filed before, and also if they are ones who left the country they would be counted in consular processing.

Counting the consular processing (200) and some additional dependents now added to original filers (say 200), it is still around 1200 numbers which could have gone to only eb3 porters. That seems too high.

So like jimmys said the inventory data is nowhere close to reality. Other explanation is not even 2800 visas are being given.

You cannot just average for two months and get the answer. I just looked at the July 2018 inventory and I am getting about 2800 cases this of course does not include CP cases and those cases who are have not filed for 485. But for new 485 cases to be eligibile for GC they have to have the interview done first.

Iatiam

[Dondraper]

You nailed the eb5 process but your lawyer was wrong. folks with Eb5 India have already for their GC. Had you applied in 2017 you would have had your GC by now but now you are looking at 8-10 years which is better considering there are like 80,000 indians in 2010 EB2/3 line. Oops the dates have not even moved from 2009. So your PD 2011 wont be current for another 2 decades at this rate.

[excalibur123]

You cannot just average for two months and get the answer. I just looked at the July 2018 inventory and I am getting about 2800 cases this of course does not include CP cases and those cases who are have not filed for 485. But for new 485 cases to be eligibile for GC they have to have the interview done first.

Iatiam

How exactly is it 2800? I based my calcs on Aug 2017 inv but using Jul 2018 it is even lower.

Mar 2009 -> 31 days : 527 pending => 6 days : 102 pending
Apr 2009 -> 649 pending
May 2009 -> 31 days : 1429 => 8 days : 369 pending

Total 1120

[mokrisin]

Is there any possibility that EB2I didn't get 2800 visas in 2019?

How are you getting 2800 cases from 2018 inventory?

You cannot just average for two months and get the answer. I just looked at the July 2018 inventory and I am getting about 2800 cases this of course does not include CP cases and those cases who are have not filed for 485. But for new 485 cases to be eligibile for GC they have to have the interview done first.

Iatiam

[iatiam]

How exactly is it 2800? I based my calcs on Aug 2017 inv but using Jul 2018 it is even lower.

Mar 2009 -> 31 days : 527 pending => 6 days : 102 pending
Apr 2009 -> 649 pending
May 2009 -> 31 days : 1429 => 8 days : 369 pending

Total 1120

Like I said, you cannot average. Take the entire inventory and add up till the date and you will get 2800