EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[lville]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (8-16-19)
Following a review of the dates listed in the September 2019 visa bulletin, the entire EB-3 category has immediately been made “unavailable” for the remainder of FY2019. This means that the annual limits have been reached on these categories and additional numbers are thus unavailable until the beginning of the next fiscal year. This status is not limited to EB-3 China and EB-3 India. It also includes, effective immediately, the EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam categories.

In addition to this change, it is also important to flag that several other categories are listed as unavailable for the remainder of the fiscal year including the entirety of EB-4 and EB-4 Religious Workers categories, as well as EB-1 India. EB-1 China is not listed as unavailable but did retrogress 2.5 years due to increased demand.

Unless otherwise advised, applicants should still appear for a scheduled AOS interview. There is a possibility that an officer decides to not proceed with the interview and/or reschedules it for another time. If the interview moves forward and the application is deemed approvable, the officer will request a visa number and that request will subsequently be sent to Charlie Oppenheim’s “pending demand file” at the Department of State. Once this occurs, the visa number will be automatically authorized for use by USCIS, effective the first day of the month in which the applicant’s priority date becomes current.

Crap!!! It doesn't say much about EB2-I movement. Hopefully they publish it soon. Man hope it moves past May 23,2009

[almost]

Hi All,

Anyone seeing any movement on 485 for EB2-I with PD's before May 2nd 2009 at Texas Service center? Seems like Nebraska center is starting to issue approvals for dates into May but TSC hasn't practically seen any movement as per trackitt.

Thanks
Almost

[shekhar_kuruk]

Crap!!! It doesn't say much about EB2-I movement. Hopefully they publish it soon. Man hope it moves past May 23,2009

2 weeks should be possible with the allocation for the new year. You are almost there. Good luck. I am next in line after you

[shekhar_kuruk]

Hi All,

Anyone seeing any movement on 485 for EB2-I with PD's before May 2nd 2009 at Texas Service center? Seems like Nebraska center is starting to issue approvals for dates into May but TSC hasn't practically seen any movement as per trackitt.

Thanks
Almost

TSC has been slow looking at the trackitt data but you should be getting reading for the party. Anytime now.
Get greened and spend some greenbacks and do not forget to donate for a good cause. Time to celebrate. Cheers.

[idliman]

Anyone has updates on the proposed rule eliminating concurrent filing of visa petitions (I-140) and I-485? Originally this rule (1615-AC22) was supposed to go into effect next month (Sept 2019). The rejection rates for both I-485 and I-140 are about 8% in 2018. ROW was current for EB2 & EB3 till JUL-2019 bulletin. However, ROW EB1 is retrogressed. With not everyone opting for PP, there has to be a reduction in demand from ROW if this rule goes into effect. Needless to say this would also strongly discourage upgrade/downgrade of EB3/EB2 with a view to file for I485 and obtain ancillary benefits (EAD/AP).

[almost]

Thanks for the response Shekhar. It has been 10+ yrs as of now and there is no longing for a celebration anymore.... At this point I just want this to be over with so that I can move on with the next phase of plans for life .
I do however intend to do my fair share of additional charity as you have suggested. Wish you the best of luck as well .......... your date doesn't seem to be that far off

[Spectator]

I've updated the PERM data in the FACTS & DATA section with the latest FY2019 Q3 figures.

[jimmys]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Check in with Charlie on 8/16

[paramjit74]

Anyone has any idea what this means? Can they deny next EAD extension if we travel on AP?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orParolees.pdf

[suninphx]

Anyone has any idea what this means? Can they deny next EAD extension if we travel on AP?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orParolees.pdf

Just read Background and you would know the answer:

Certain foreign nationals may be paroled into the United States under INA 212(d)(5) for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit. USCIS has discretion to grant these foreign nationals employment authorization. Applicants are not entitled to employment authorization. USCIS determines whether to grant discretionary employment authorization on a case-by-case basis, taking into account all factors and considering the totality of the circumstances of each individual case.

[redsox2009]

Here is the 2019 July DOS data.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	84	07	00	00	40	05	206	342
EB2	12	00	03	11	183	04	176	389
EB3	057	160	151	525	061	012	642	1608
EB4	00	08	00	02	10	16	172	218
EB5	183	051	013	000	085	118	244	694
Total	336	236	167	538	379	155	1440	3251

[Spectator]

Just to add to redsox2009 post, cumulatively, here is the situation for Oct-July (10 months of FY2019).

Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
China ----------- 578 ---- 150 ---- 229 ------ 7 -- 3,224 --- 4,188
India ----------- 150 ----- 44 -- 1,680 ---- 115 ---- 440 --- 2,429
Mexico ----------- 18 ----- 29 ---- 647 ----- 44 ----- 62 ----- 800
Philippines ------- 1 ---- 173 -- 3,957 ----- 57 ----- 11 --- 4,199
ROW ----------- 1,407 -- 2,859 -- 6,366 -- 1,592 -- 2,969 -- 15,193

Grand Total --- 2,154 -- 3,255 - 12,879 -- 1,815 -- 6,706 -- 26,809

Oct-Jul FY2018 was 24,847.
Full FY2018 was 27,345.


Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
China ----------- 350 -- 2,304 ---- 705 -- 1,313 -- 5,146 --- 9,818
India ----------- 182 ---- 721 ---- 147 -- 3,642 -- 6,117 -- 10,809
Mexico ---------- 982 - 13,209 ---- 613 ---- 843 -- 2,074 -- 17,721
Philippines --- 1,563 -- 2,844 -- 3,792 -- 1,018 -- 2,303 -- 11,520
ROW ---------- 14,871 - 34,203 - 11,858 - 12,809 - 31,012 - 104,753

Grand Total -- 17,948 - 53,281 - 17,115 - 19,625 - 46,652 - 154,621

Oct-Jul FY2018 was 178,295
Full FY2018 was 211,641.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Can anyone direct me to a post or thread that has most current and accurate information on the processing times and issues for F2A for spouse living in India? Basically the equivalent of this thread for F2A. I appreciate your help. I am particularly interested i knowing how the processing times are ever since F2A became current. Has anyone filed 130 since F2A got current and already been approved?

[EB22010Dec]

Redsox and spec, when you are posting items like this, if you could write at least one line explaining what that means, it would be such a great help for people like me who can not make sense of this information.

[Spectator]

Redsox and spec, when you are posting items like this, if you could write at least one line explaining what that means, it would be such a great help for people like me who can not make sense of this information.

This is hardly the first time this data source has been posted.

Try this post or look back at previous posting on the subject where it has been explained before, such as this one or this one and the discussions surrounding them. This post and those that follow it would also be relevant.

The original raw data can be found here.

redsox2009 has put a lot of effort into compiling the figures each month from the raw data and deserves some thanks for doing so month after month.

There is a point where people have to take some responsibility to educate themselves on the subject matter and not just be spoon fed the data and analysis.


The figures represent the number of visas issued by DOS at consulates around the world.

This contrasts to (and is in addition to) the number of AOS approvals USCIS make for those who have an I-485. For EB, Consular processing accounts for 15-20% of total approvals in a FY.

The long lost USCIS Pending Inventory only included AOS applicants (those still waiting, but not all those waiting). The monthly DOS report shows actual visas issued.

It might be interesting because:

a) It might show evolving trends in the number of EB applicants who are using Consular Processing rather than AOS. For example, EB3-I consular approvals to date for FY2019 are 1,680 for the 10 months reported in FY2019. That contrasts to only 747 for the full FY2018 and just 208 for the full FY2017.

b) Consular processing represents around 94% of all number limited FB approvals. Looking at the progress can give some idea if there are likely to be any unused FB visas in FY2019 that would spill over to EB in FY2020.

[swaugh]

Hi Spec/RedSox2009 - thank you for your efforts!

[GCGCGCGC]

Thank you very much Spec and redsox2009. Appreciate your time and efforts for this blog.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Again apologies for asking the question in this thread. I don't seem to have any other forum or thread that can answer this question better. F2A Final Action date is current, where as Filing Dates are not. This is the only Category with the inverted Dates (everyone is talking about the inversion in the Bond market). Some opinions would be helpful on that.

[Spectator]

Again apologies for asking the question in this thread. I don't seem to have any other forum or thread that can answer this question better. F2A Final Action date is current, where as Filing Dates are not. This is the only Category with the inverted Dates (everyone is talking about the inversion in the Bond market). Some opinions would be helpful on that.

I don't answer this with any certainty.

I think what it means for Consular Processing is:

a) The Current Final Action Date means any existing filed applications are eligible to be approved.

b) New filers must use the Filing Date.


USCIS can interpret as they wish for AOS.

I base this partly on a Shusterman article from a few months ago entitled Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (6-21-19):

The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019 Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March 8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year (FY2019).

I don't think the article is available any more, since it seems to be overwritten when the next "Check In" is published.


P.S. As for your previous question, I couldn't find any information about F2A in the forum. But, since the low end processing time for an I-130 is 5 months, it seems unlikely that any submitted since F2A became Current in July would have been approved at this time.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I don't answer this with any certainty.

I think what it means for Consular Processing is:

a) The Current Final Action Date means any existing filed applications are eligible to be approved.

b) New filers must use the Filing Date.


USCIS can interpret as they wish for AOS.

I base this partly on a Shusterman article from a few months ago entitled Check-In with DOSÂ’s Charlie Oppenheim (6-21-19):



I don't think the article is available any more, since it seems to be overwritten when the next "Check In" is published.


P.S. As for your previous question, I couldn't find any information about F2A in the forum. But, since the low end processing time for an I-130 is 5 months, it seems unlikely that any submitted since F2A became Current in July would have been approved at this time.

Thanks a bunch for the reply.

Have a follow up question on this

"this was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year (FY2019)"

To my knowledge, a Form I-130 has to be first filed and approved(which itself takes anywhere from 5 months to eternity) before a CP or AOS can be filed for. So what does Charlie mean by "this was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category"?

Again, "Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year" does Charlie mean that even if the candidates respond to the NVC letters, they will not be approved in the current FY and will only be approved in the next FY?

[Spectator]

Thanks a bunch for the reply.

Have a follow up question on this

"this was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year (FY2019)"

To my knowledge, a Form I-130 has to be first filed and approved(which itself takes anywhere from 5 months to eternity) before a CP or AOS can be filed for. So what does Charlie mean by "this was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category"?

Again, "Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year" does Charlie mean that even if the candidates respond to the NVC letters, they will not be approved in the current FY and will only be approved in the next FY?

All good and valid points.

It doesn't make a bunch of sense to me either.

I wasn't able to find much on the subject.

[Spectator]

I've spent a fair amount of time copying posts about DOS Consular approval data into a consolidated thread. You can find it here.

I think it's important data that deserves its own thread, rather than being scattered among 100 pages in the EB Calculations thread.

I've included a few discussion posts as well which give context to what the data represents and why it might be useful to look at.

It would be better if all further posts on the subject use this thread. It can be found at Forum / Live Discussion / Counselor-Processing (CP) / Consular Processing Data Published by DOS From March 2017 Onwards.

Here is the link - https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards

[dreamze]

Received Card production email for both me and my wife on 1st business day of Sept. Emotional journey started 10 years ago finally coming to end. Thanks Q, Spec and others for all your help and support!

[paramjit74]

Received Card production email for both me and my wife on 1st business day of Sept. Emotional journey started 10 years ago finally coming to end. Thanks Q, Spec and others for all your help and support!

Congrats. But as per your profile your PD is 5/31/2009?

[Spectator]

Received Card production email for both me and my wife on 1st business day of Sept. Emotional journey started 10 years ago finally coming to end. Thanks Q, Spec and others for all your help and support!

Congratulations.