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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #5326
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJMavarick View Post
    OK. I do agree that we cannot have a lot of EB2 folks before July 2009 who would be downgrading. I stand corrected. At the minimum, we should see July 2009. We will have to wait and see how the dates pan out after that.
    Year after year, with a lot of hope we look forward to October bulletins. Let's see what's in store this time around.

  2. #5327
    For the sake of everyone's sanity, I would request to keep politics/trump/legal-vs-illegal/etc out of this thread. You are welcome to discuss them in threads that specifically focus on those issues.

    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    That's Trump's MO. He knows these will be challenged in states and will find a way to the Supreme Court where a conservative bench will uphold it. Hopefully his DACA cancellation will also be upheld by the court and stem the flow of illegals. If Obama can bring an executive order, I don't understand why his predecessor can't cancel it.

    Iatiam
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  3. #5328
    Quote Originally Posted by lville View Post
    LOL (PD May 22,2009 EB2-I) I was in the same boat year ago when dates for EB3 moved past my PD. I was on the fence for few months and talking to other people on this forum and other decided to stay in EB2. Looking back if I had jumped to EB3 the month it passed my PD, I would have had my GC by now. Or at least my EAD/AP. Being in May 2009 sux, I feel like I'm neither here or there. This kind of sux, don't know how many more months I'll have to wait. Hopefully October bulletin moves beyond my date. What's more irritating is that 2 months before EB3 went past my PD I had my Perm approved. I was waiting to decide which category to choose. And when I decided to go EB2, very next month dates went past my PD. 2 yrs before that I had switched job, moved cross country because my new employer promised me to file my GC under EB2
    Mine is 05/15/09, I am waiting with bated breathe as well!!

  4. #5329
    My Priority date is September 2009, I have downgraded from EB2 to EB3, assuming that the line will move faster... what happens to my EB2 I 140? Is it still valid, can I use it if EB2 moves faster?

  5. #5330
    My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates?

  6. #5331
    Quote Originally Posted by GCchaser View Post
    My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates?
    Yes, both are two different applications for future employment. But you cannot file I-485 simultaneously in both.

  7. #5332
    Quote Originally Posted by IamGSN View Post
    Yes, both are two different applications for future employment. But you cannot file I-485 simultaneously in both.
    Thanks for your response, but my employer didn’t file new PERM for EB3, it is a straight downgrade from EB2 to EB3

  8. #5333
    Quote Originally Posted by GCchaser View Post
    My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates?
    If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
    Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).

  9. #5334
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    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
    Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).

    They are not accepting DF yet. And not sure if they will going ahead.

  10. #5335
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
    Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).
    I guess they are not accepting the filing dates at this point!

  11. #5336
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    Year after year, with a lot of hope we look forward to October bulletins. Let's see what's in store this time around.
    True! Sadly, its a choice we all have made. With my date in 2011, it seems I may be looking anywhere between 4 to 8 years. <sigh>

    The only way out is if S386 gets passed which at the moment looks like a long shot.

  12. #5337
    Quote Originally Posted by GCchaser View Post
    I guess they are not accepting the filing dates at this point!
    Ah. Thanks. Oct-2018 to Jan-2019 Visa bulletins accepted the DF. So you have a chance in the next bulletin. Lets hope for the best. Keep your Birth Certificate and other docs for I-485 ready. I hope the window opens at least for a month so that people can get EAD+AP. The same arguments hold. They already have most of the demand in EB3I. So accepting the DF is not going to help or hurt them. Its 50/50. Praying to the almighty might sway the odds in your favor.

  13. #5338
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Ah. Thanks. Oct-2018 to Jan-2019 Visa bulletins accepted the DF. So you have a chance in the next bulletin. Lets hope for the best. Keep your Birth Certificate and other docs for I-485 ready. I hope the window opens at least for a month so that people can get EAD+AP. The same arguments hold. They already have most of the demand in EB3I. So accepting the DF is not going to help or hurt them. Its 50/50. Praying to the almighty might sway the odds in your favor.
    Yeah, let’s hope for the best... how ever my original question was, since I have downgraded to EB3... what if dates move in EB2? Is my EB2 140 still valid?

  14. #5339
    Quote Originally Posted by GCchaser View Post
    Yeah, let’s hope for the best... how ever my original question was, since I have downgraded to EB3... what if dates move in EB2? Is my EB2 140 still valid?
    I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.

  15. #5340
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.
    I am not getting the right answer for this question, a friend told me one Chinese guy had this situation and he was able to use EB2...now I am repenting for downgrading

  16. #5341
    Quote Originally Posted by GCchaser View Post
    I am not getting the right answer for this question, a friend told me one Chinese guy had this situation and he was able to use EB2...now I am repenting for downgrading
    What matters is the I-140 receipt number referenced in the Supplement J form submitted along with I-485 application. You can have both EB2 and EB3 I-140's but which ever I-140 is used in the supplement will determine your category.

  17. #5342
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    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.
    My lawyer said You have to do amendment every time you switch categories (Eb2 to Eb3 to Eb2 to Eb3....). It is time consuming I believe.

  18. #5343
    Quote Originally Posted by lville View Post
    My lawyer said You have to do amendment every time you switch categories (Eb2 to Eb3 to Eb2 to Eb3....). It is time consuming I believe.
    Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.

  19. #5344
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmar View Post
    Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.
    Important to know. First time I am hearing this.

  20. #5345
    Quote Originally Posted by IamGSN View Post
    Important to know. First time I am hearing this.
    Yes, we were caught off guard too, i thought the interview is just a formality but was totally wrong about it. Out officer told us that their new directive is to reject the cases without RFE but lot of it is depended on the individual officer and how you present the case in the interview. We were lucky to get RFE and not rejection.

  21. #5346
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmar View Post
    Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.
    That’s weird, I know a guy downgraded and got their GC without any issue... I also saw couple of posts in Trackitt

  22. #5347
    What is your PD? Your profile says it is in 2001. If that's the case, you should have your GC or citizenship by now

  23. #5348
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    What is your PD? Your profile says it is in 2001. If that's the case, you should have your GC or citizenship by now
    India, August, 2009. Filed I-485 in December 2018 (EB3) and attended interview in July 2019.

  24. #5349
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmar View Post
    India, August, 2009. Filed I-485 in December 2018 (EB3) and attended interview in July 2019.
    May I know the exact reason for your RFE? did they request the reason for downgrade? Are there any changes in your job role?

  25. #5350
    https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

    Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (8-16-19)
    Following a review of the dates listed in the September 2019 visa bulletin, the entire EB-3 category has immediately been made “unavailable” for the remainder of FY2019. This means that the annual limits have been reached on these categories and additional numbers are thus unavailable until the beginning of the next fiscal year. This status is not limited to EB-3 China and EB-3 India. It also includes, effective immediately, the EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam categories.

    In addition to this change, it is also important to flag that several other categories are listed as unavailable for the remainder of the fiscal year including the entirety of EB-4 and EB-4 Religious Workers categories, as well as EB-1 India. EB-1 China is not listed as unavailable but did retrogress 2.5 years due to increased demand.

    Unless otherwise advised, applicants should still appear for a scheduled AOS interview. There is a possibility that an officer decides to not proceed with the interview and/or reschedules it for another time. If the interview moves forward and the application is deemed approvable, the officer will request a visa number and that request will subsequently be sent to Charlie Oppenheim’s “pending demand file” at the Department of State. Once this occurs, the visa number will be automatically authorized for use by USCIS, effective the first day of the month in which the applicant’s priority date becomes current.

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