Sounds like there are still people waiting for visa numbers between 2006-2009 in EB3-I
I have a feeling it won’t move back to July 2009 - the EB3I CP folks are activating really old (2006/7/8) petitions and using 4 numbers per applicant, not sure if that trend will continue but might lead CO to not move dates back to July 2009.
Originally Posted by IamGSN
I wish your predictions were right but sadly EB2 will move 7-10 days per visa bulletin, and that’s being optimistic. Conservatively 3-6 days
Any chance EB2-I will at least advance past May 22, 09 soon ? It’s going to be new year and new quota in 2020, so hoping it at least advances a week or more at a time and not crawl like 3 days.
Last year the dates moved by 11 days with new quota; the year before the dates moved by 23 days with new quota. So going by that trend, the dates should move between a week to two by October 15. Fingers crossed. Actually fingers, toes, legs, hands ...you name it all crossed. 10 years is a long wait. I agree there are others in worse situation, but 10 years is on an average 25% of your work life.
I can only hope that the filing date moves to mid-July 09 within the first quarter of the new FY. I am July 7, 09 (EB2), so while it's wishful thinking to expect to become current in this FY, being able to file 485 would be a huge relief! Oh well...Last year the dates moved by 11 days with new quota; the year before the dates moved by 23 days with new quota. So going by that trend, the dates should move between a week to two by October 15. Fingers crossed. Actually fingers, toes, legs, hands ...you name it all crossed. 10 years is a long wait. I agree there are others in worse situation, but 10 years is on an average 25% of your work life.
I am on the same boat and hoping for the same, as EB3-I is dead for now.
EB3I is not dead. It will bounce back to a July 09 date beginning October.
Glad to hear everyone's comments and frustrations. Sometimes this forum feels like only the "toppers" are posting and the "back benchers" are not encouraged OR afraid because of the higher standards here.
Looking at the approval trend in trackitt, EB3I 2009 applicants barely got any approval (less than 10% of total). So almost the entire 2009 EB3I that was current is still waiting for visas. I also agree with your view that more people in India (typically EB3I) are getting eligible to do CP. One of my friends in India decided not to pursue GC even though his company supported him to do it.
Usually there is some election year magic. I wish for that next year. Otherwise it is going to be the story of no spillover and another 2-3 years to clear 2009. The immigration system is so complex that no one can predict the cascading effects. I for one supported Obama admin's streamlining of GCs process till it systematically reduced the Spillover to India. It took about 2 or 3 years for that to play out. Maybe the "Inadmissability on Public Charge" rule might turnout to be positive. So we have to wait and see how the new Public Charge rule plays out. It is too early to say anything about its impacts now.
How does the CP process work? What are the benefits or disadvantages with it? Can you shift from non-CP to CP?
I got my 485 interview done yesterday , is this a indication that EB3-I dates will move or are they just trying to clear the desk , since interview is mandatory nowadays.
My pd is 03/2010 , I downgraded this Jan from EB2.
My IO gave a standard reply that dates will move in October.
Just out of curiosity-How can someone have an interview when the dates are not current. Can you please explain? Thanks
I am as surprised as you are, has anyone in the forum got a interview call recently without being current?
I saw few cases in trackitt, so it’s not unusual but curious to see if there is a trend here .
Yes. Many of my friends got the interviews done even before the dates are current. It’s the norm.
I wish for that too! However, the reason for the dates being retrogressed seems to be a deluge of downgrades in which case I am not really sure if that will happen. The forecast seems gloomy!
Two positive things in the Sep Bulletin.
This year EB got almost 2k extra GC's. it is 141.9K instead of 140K.
" The fiscal year 2019 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 141,918."
Last three months consular processing got increased by 50% and then it started cooling down. Hope this will continue.
"There has been a combination of a dramatic change in the USCIS demand pattern for adjustment of status applicants during July, and a larger than anticipated return of unused numbers which had been provided to consular offices for July use."
Bad News is that about dates moving back. CO said he will move dates back to August bulletin dates instead of July bulletin dates.
"Numbers will once again be available for applicants in the above mentioned preferences beginning October 1, 2019 under the FY-2020 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August. "
True that. Plus FB might provide some SO this year. As Spec showed once, the numbers would be limited. But I really hope the public charge provision will reduce the FB consumption even further. Overall, the future doesn't look as bad as it used to be in the Obama days when dates rarely moved. Add to it the potential for a 2020 recession, we might see some healthy movement next FY.
Iatiam
Deluge of downgrades? Does it mean people who got their GC in EB2 are downgrading to get GC in EB-3? Only in Feb 2019 VB, EB-3 India took over EB-2 India. That time EB-2 was already in April 2009. So, how many EB-2 Indians between April 2009 - Jun 2009 are downgrading to EB-3 that's causing a deluge? There may be many downgrading in late 2009 and early 2010.
If anything that's going to prevent EB-3 India to move forward is, unknown CP cases. As already pointed out by Spec or Q earlier, the CP numbers for EB-3 India is unusually high this year. Since we don't know how many are still pending for CP in EB-3 2008/2009, it might negatively affect EB-3 India movement. To return back to July 1,2009 downgrades are not a significant problem,IMO.
A lot are called for interview even when their dates are not current. I was one of them. I was called for interview about 4 months ago. The IO told me since my dates are not current he can't issue the visa on the spot. However, he told me I will get my visa as soon as my PD becomes current.
YTeleven, I initiated an almost irreversible downgrade to EB3 based on your strong conviction and views this forum. You still confident it is the right choice? The last thing that should happen to a EB2/3 applicant is getting pushed back another few years in this already excruciating wait.
The EB2 folks who are still on EAD would have seen this as an opportunity to downgrade and maybe get the GC sooner. IMO, if the law allows it then they would do it and I do not see anything wrong with that. It does affect people like me but then at one point in time, we had a lot of upgrades which choked the EB2 line and what we see now is the reverse.
Even if the filing dates in EB3 move beyond April 2010, you would start seeing a lot of eb2 downgrades leading to a slow movement in EB3. This has been discussed in the past in the forum so would refrain from commenting further.
I didn't talk about EB-3 India filing dates moving beyond 2010. My point was there can't be deluge of downgrades before July 1,2009. There may be a few hundred downgrade cases maximum till July 1,2009.
Unless you already had EB-3 I-140 approved, you have to go through new I-140 and link that I-140 to your existing EB-2 case. For people in April 2009 it doesn't make sense as they may get their green card in the next few months or so. So the dates moving(not moving) to July 1,2009 is not because of EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades.
The real surprise was CP numbers for EB-3 India.
LOL(PD May 22,2009 EB2-I) I was in the same boat year ago when dates for EB3 moved past my PD. I was on the fence for few months and talking to other people on this forum and other decided to stay in EB2. Looking back if I had jumped to EB3 the month it passed my PD, I would have had my GC by now. Or at least my EAD/AP. Being in May 2009 sux, I feel like I'm neither here or there. This kind of sux, don't know how many more months I'll have to wait. Hopefully October bulletin moves beyond my date. What's more irritating is that 2 months before EB3 went past my PD I had my Perm approved. I was waiting to decide which category to choose. And when I decided to go EB2, very next month dates went past my PD. 2 yrs before that I had switched job, moved cross country because my new employer promised me to file my GC under EB2
Most of the negative sentiment against EB2 to EB3 downgrade is based on fear mongering by existing EB3 folks. Let's get real here - we have only seen a month of advance in EB2. So if someone has a PD in July 2009 or beyond, they can potentially save three to four years by moving to EB3. Trackitt is full of such people and for every person who did it in Trackitt, there are several others who are not active there. Downgrades are going to accelerate next FY especially if EB3 dates moved rapidly.
Iatiam
OK. I do agree that we cannot have a lot of EB2 folks before July 2009 who would be downgrading. I stand corrected. At the minimum, we should see July 2009. We will have to wait and see how the dates pan out after that.
EB3 I for 2019 did not get anywhere near the 6000 + it got for 2017 and 2018, due to high demand from ROW. Also CP numbers were very high beyond CO's estimate and it also played a part in the delay. Downgrades did not impact EB3I movement for FY19.
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