EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[lville]

Just curious. Were you not able to use EB3 date of May 22, 3009 (like use the I-140 from EB3) to get GC when dates became current recently. I read elsewhere that USCiS was in fact reaching out to folks with I-140s in multiple categoris and asking which one they would like to proceed with. Not sure how that worked in their case.

I don't work for the same employer anymore that sponsored me in EB3.

[NJMavarick]

Thanks for this. Am I reading this right? There were approximately 3,800 EB2 and EB3 PERM certifications made in the months of May, June and July 2009. Assuming that 2,800 of those were EB2 petitions, can we expect EB2 petitions filed through, say June 2009, to clear in FY 2020?

There were 3800~ primary PERM applications during that period. Once you count the dependents, the number of people waiting to be greened in EB2 will be higher. Its really hard to predict considering people are moving from one queue to another. Maybe the other gurus on this forum can chime in...

[canada]

There were 3800~ primary PERM applications during that period. Once you count the dependents, the number of people waiting to be greened in EB2 will be higher. Its really hard to predict considering people are moving from one queue to another. Maybe the other gurus on this forum can chime in...

Pending Inventory released in July 2018 (which includes both the applicant and the dependents) shows 1400 for May 2009, 1400 for June 2009 and 800 for July 2009.

So based on that by October 2020-it should reach July 1st, 2009.

However consular processing numbers are not included in PI.

Also applicants are moving between EB2/EB3 resulting in slowing the process in my opinion

[IamGSN]

Pending Inventory released in July 2018 (which includes both the applicant and the dependents) shows 1400 for May 2009, 1400 for June 2009 and 800 for July 2009.

So based on that by October 2020-it should reach July 1st, 2009.

However consular processing numbers are not included in PI.

Also applicants are moving between EB2/EB3 resulting in slowing the process in my opinion

Are there any chances of Filing Dates movement in October 2019 ?

[canada]

Are there any chances of Filing Dates movement in October 2019 ?

Its anybody's guess because we don't have any information for the last one year regarding pending inventory.

[ferric]

Are there any chances of Filing Dates movement in October 2019 ?

Definitely not for EB3-I - CO already has demand data till 01APR2010 between the CP filings, downgrades and original EB3-I folks

It’ll be interesting to see where FAD returns to in October

[idliman]

Definitely not for EB3-I - CO already has demand data till 01APR2010 between the CP filings, downgrades and original EB3-I folks

It’ll be interesting to see where FAD returns to in October

I concur;
For EB3I:
Starting with Jan-2019 bulletin, the EB3I Filing dates are in 01APR2010. This is ahead of the FA dates by 10 months or so. So Mr. CO has good idea of demand in EB3I.
For EB2I:
EB2I filing dates are at 01JUN2009. However, the FA dates went to 01MAY2010 in April-2012 visa bulletin. He does not have the delta (change in demand) for EB2I since April-2012. He may move the DF for EB2I beyond 01JUL2009. EB2I DF went to 01JUL2009 in 2015, 2016.

[idliman]

Is there a way to know how many EB3I applicants are pending till 01JUL09?

EB3I reached 01JAN09 in Aug-2018. In one year, EB3I dates have moved to 01JUL09 (with retrogression). In other words a total of 2800 GCs were consumed by EB3I applicants with PDs in the first 6 months of 2009. Because the dates were moved gradually, I would expect most original EB3I applicants to have obtained their GCs by now. I would not think more than 500 EB3I applicants with PDs in first half of 2009 are still waiting. With this data, it can be extrapolated that there will be only another 2800 EB3I applicants in the second half of 2009.

The last known inventory for EB2I from May09 to Dec09 is about 9000. It is three times the EB3I number based on the trend we saw in the last year. With the downward porting from EB2I to EB3I, I think we say conservatively that the combined dates will reach somewhere in SEPT2009 by the end of next year without considering any spillover. Any counter arguments?

[imdeng]

Counter Arguments from top of my head: One - EB3I CP cases are exploding (see Spec's posts) and are consuming much of the quota leaving little for AOS cases. Two - for all the talk of downgrades, I feel like most folks in EB2I with 2009 PDs with EADs are going to stick it out. Surely July/Aug/Sept 2009 which are within reach in couple of years. Whether EB3I will run far ahead of EB2I will depend upon the balance of the two above and I have no idea how these numbers will stack up.

Is there a way to know how many EB3I applicants are pending till 01JUL09?

EB3I reached 01JAN09 in Aug-2018. In one year, EB3I dates have moved to 01JUL09 (with retrogression). In other words a total of 2800 GCs were consumed by EB3I applicants with PDs in the first 6 months of 2009. Because the dates were moved gradually, I would expect most original EB3I applicants to have obtained their GCs by now. I would not think more than 500 EB3I applicants with PDs in first half of 2009 are still waiting. With this data, it can be extrapolated that there will be only another 2800 EB3I applicants in the second half of 2009.

The last known inventory for EB2I from May09 to Dec09 is about 9000. It is three times the EB3I number based on the trend we saw in the last year. With the downward porting from EB2I to EB3I, I think we say conservatively that the combined dates will reach somewhere in SEPT2009 by the end of next year without considering any spillover. Any counter arguments?

[Spectator]

Is there a way to know how many EB3I applicants are pending till 01JUL09?

EB3I reached 01JAN09 in Aug-2018. In one year, EB3I dates have moved to 01JUL09 (with retrogression). In other words a total of 2800 GCs were consumed by EB3I applicants with PDs in the first 6 months of 2009. Because the dates were moved gradually, I would expect most original EB3I applicants to have obtained their GCs by now. I would not think more than 500 EB3I applicants with PDs in first half of 2009 are still waiting. With this data, it can be extrapolated that there will be only another 2800 EB3I applicants in the second half of 2009.

The last known inventory for EB2I from May09 to Dec09 is about 9000. It is three times the EB3I number based on the trend we saw in the last year. With the downward porting from EB2I to EB3I, I think we say conservatively that the combined dates will reach somewhere in SEPT2009 by the end of next year without considering any spillover. Any counter arguments?

idleman,

You are forced to make assumptions, for lack of data.

The problem is that you can't really test whether the assumptions hold true.

Implicitly, you've made an assumption that :

a) EB3-I has only received 2.8k approvals in FY2019.

b) That those approvals only came from PD Jan-Jun 2009.

I can't tell you whether they are good assumptions or not.

Trackitt approvals (which may not be a very good data source this year) for EB3-I show that 90% of approvals are for PD years prior to 2009.

This may not be altogether surprising, the processing time for a new I-485 is anywhere from 8 to 12 months.

I'm not criticizing - just pointing out how difficult it is.

[canada]

Counter Arguments from top of my head: One - EB3I CP cases are exploding (see Spec's posts) and are consuming much of the quota leaving little for AOS cases. Two - for all the talk of downgrades, I feel like most folks in EB2I with 2009 PDs with EADs are going to stick it out. Surely July/Aug/Sept 2009 which are within reach in couple of years. Whether EB3I will run far ahead of EB2I will depend upon the balance of the two above and I have no idea how these numbers will stack up.

Rather than going through the interview process and downgrade- people with EAD’s in May, June, July, 2009 may stay in EB2 and wait for GC to arrive in the mail. I find this argument valid

[ferric]

Spec,

Is there any way to predict the number of CP cases for EB3-I who can theoretically file with PD before Jul 2009?

It sounds like it’ll be 50/50 between CP and AOS this year? 1400 CP (assuming Jul is another 200 and retrogression in Aug/Sep) and 1400 AOS.

[Blue_fairy]

Don't leave out us Oct 2009 folks. On EAD since 2012 and sticking it out instead of moving queues

Counter Arguments from top of my head: One - EB3I CP cases are exploding (see Spec's posts) and are consuming much of the quota leaving little for AOS cases. Two - for all the talk of downgrades, I feel like most folks in EB2I with 2009 PDs with EADs are going to stick it out. Surely July/Aug/Sept 2009 which are within reach in couple of years. Whether EB3I will run far ahead of EB2I will depend upon the balance of the two above and I have no idea how these numbers will stack up.

[idliman]

idleman,

You are forced to make assumptions, for lack of data.

The problem is that you can't really test whether the assumptions hold true.

Implicitly, you've made an assumption that :

a) EB3-I has only received 2.8k approvals in FY2019.

b) That those approvals only came from PD Jan-Jun 2009.

I can't tell you whether they are good assumptions or not.

Trackitt approvals (which may not be a very good data source this year) for EB3-I show that 90% of approvals are for PD years prior to 2009.

This may not be altogether surprising, the processing time for a new I-485 is anywhere from 8 to 12 months.

I'm not criticizing - just pointing out how difficult it is.

I did not look at trackitt data. I went back and checked. The following are the EB2I and EB3I approvals in the last year.

EB3I Approvals Trend
PDs 2006 and before ----- 5%
2007 ------------------- 29%
2008 ------------------- 56%
2009 ------------------- 10%

EB2I Approvals Trend
PDs 2006 and before ----- 6%
2007 -------------------- 6%
2008 ------------------- 18%
2009 ------------------- 71%

My assumptions were totally incorrect. The approval of EB3I with PDs in 2009 had barely started. EB3I PD of 01JAN09 got FA current only in Aug-2018. So most of the EB3I pending applicants with PDs 2009 had their I485s in process for less than a year. With interviews and slowness of USCIS, they should start getting approvals after 300 days or so.

I would still think that Pending EB3I folks in 2009 are still less than 1/3rd of EB2I folks. EB3I folks up to 01JUL2007 got their EADs; Also if I was EB3I, I would have gone through the pain of seeing PDs move by a week every month for the PDs 2001 to 2005. This would have forced me to get into EB2I queue. This makes me to think positively that EB3I FA will somehow reach beyond 01JAN10 before getting retrogressed as more downward porting from EB2I happens. The variable that we don't know is the internal pending inventory data for EB3I that only Mr. CO has access to.

It is good to know that most of the EB2I applicants are staying put and waiting for their GCs to arrive by mail. I guess this is a personal decision based on the relative stability of their jobs.

I would be glad to hear the thoughts of 2009 EB3I applicants in this forum. They would have spent most time analyzing their situation and their perspective might be different from folks who spent most of their time on EB2I queue.

[mesimba]

Dear Experts,

I am working in an industry which is on the downtrend with layoffs every quarter, my skills for which I had applied my labor are getting irrelevant.
Priority date EB2I, Dec 2009 and moved to a different job (from original PERM/I-140) using EAD.

At this point considering the downward trend in the industry that I currently work for I am looking for a change in field.

I have a few questions:

- If my PERM is for e.g. applied for C++ and I get a job in Java and finance. Will there be any issues if I change my job on EAD with file for a new supplement J ?
- Realistically when do you see EB2I PD Dec 2009 getting cleared.
- Is it worth considering my situation to downgrade to EB3 with better chances of greened earlier ? What will be the risk involved.

Any guidance to help my situation will be greatly appreciated.

[idliman]

Dear Experts,

I am working in an industry which is on the downtrend with layoffs every quarter, my skills for which I had applied my labor are getting irrelevant.
Priority date EB2I, Dec 2009 and moved to a different job (from original PERM/I-140) using EAD.

At this point considering the downward trend in the industry that I currently work for I am looking for a change in field.

I have a few questions:

- If my PERM is for e.g. applied for C++ and I get a job in Java and finance. Will there be any issues if I change my job on EAD with file for a new supplement J ?
- Realistically when do you see EB2I PD Dec 2009 getting cleared.
- Is it worth considering my situation to downgrade to EB3 with better chances of greened earlier ? What will be the risk involved.

Any guidance to help my situation will be greatly appreciated.

Sounds like what our industry is going through now. The key is how your attorney is going to argue for same or similar category justification. If the SOC codes of the H1B are the same that would be good. But you had joined directly on EAD. So you need to somehow meet the same or similar category justification. To be safe, I would also apply for a new PERM in your new employer / new job description; You can apply in EB2 itself and then when the time comes, because you have original PERM with the same employer you can downgraded to EB3 if needed.

Dec2009 EB2I is very close to my PD. Read the discussions above on possible movements; If you want to predict safely, I would say you will get your GC before OCT2022 (three years from now). The optimistic prediction will be OCT2021; However, I believe that EB3I will be current for your PD by next summer (by OCT202) subject to retrogression; The consensus seems to be that EB2I will clear 2009 in 2 to 3 years. If you are mentally prepared for the worst, you will not be disappointed.

If you have that many questions about job description and justification, you should consider a new PERM. You have enough time to get a new PERM approved before your PD becomes current. I cannot comment on the technicalities of your job as I am not familiar with your industry. Good luck.

[mesimba]

Sounds like what our industry is going through now. The key is how your attorney is going to argue for same or similar category justification. If the SOC codes of the H1B are the same that would be good. But you had joined directly on EAD. So you need to somehow meet the same or similar category justification. To be safe, I would also apply for a new PERM in your new employer / new job description; You can apply in EB2 itself and then when the time comes, because you have original PERM with the same employer you can downgraded to EB3 if needed.

Dec2009 EB2I is very close to my PD. Read the discussions above on possible movements; If you want to predict safely, I would say you will get your GC before OCT2022 (three years from now). The optimistic prediction will be OCT2021; However, I believe that EB3I will be current for your PD by next summer (by OCT202) subject to retrogression; The consensus seems to be that EB2I will clear 2009 in 2 to 3 years. If you are mentally prepared for the worst, you will not be disappointed.

If you have that many questions about job description and justification, you should consider a new PERM. You have enough time to get a new PERM approved before your PD becomes current. I cannot comment on the technicalities of your job as I am not familiar with your industry. Good luck.

Thank you so much!

[imdeng]

USCIS does not care about the content of your job (like Java vs C++) - and the job description can be written (read spinned) to how you want it to sound like. USCIS is also okay with job progression. What really matters is the job SOC codes. If they are same or similar then that should work out okay for AC21 job portability purposes. In my specific case, I moved from to a different job - but both were same SOC code in the same industry, similar organizations - so the AC21 process (I485J) was easier.

Dec 2009 can be long wait. Worst case scenario - very broadly: next year is May+June+Part July 2009. Year after is Part July + Aug + Sep, Year after that is Oct+Nov+Dec. So you are looking at three years. Give or take 6 months.

Sounds like what our industry is going through now. The key is how your attorney is going to argue for same or similar category justification. If the SOC codes of the H1B are the same that would be good. But you had joined directly on EAD. So you need to somehow meet the same or similar category justification. To be safe, I would also apply for a new PERM in your new employer / new job description; You can apply in EB2 itself and then when the time comes, because you have original PERM with the same employer you can downgraded to EB3 if needed.

Dec2009 EB2I is very close to my PD. Read the discussions above on possible movements; If you want to predict safely, I would say you will get your GC before OCT2022 (three years from now). The optimistic prediction will be OCT2021; However, I believe that EB3I will be current for your PD by next summer (by OCT202) subject to retrogression; The consensus seems to be that EB2I will clear 2009 in 2 to 3 years. If you are mentally prepared for the worst, you will not be disappointed.

If you have that many questions about job description and justification, you should consider a new PERM. You have enough time to get a new PERM approved before your PD becomes current. I cannot comment on the technicalities of your job as I am not familiar with your industry. Good luck.

[karukon]

USCIS does not care about the content of your job (like Java vs C++) - and the job description can be written (read spinned) to how you want it to sound like. USCIS is also okay with job progression. What really matters is the job SOC codes. If they are same or similar then that should work out okay for AC21 job portability purposes. In my specific case, I moved from to a different job - but both were same SOC code in the same industry, similar organizations - so the AC21 process (I485J) was easier.

Dec 2009 can be long wait. Worst case scenario - very broadly: next year is May+June+Part July 2009. Year after is Part July + Aug + Sep, Year after that is Oct+Nov+Dec. So you are looking at three years. Give or take 6 months.

imdeng: For codes which changed since 2009, do USCIS compare and see ?

Thanks!

[imdeng]

I don't have any personal insight into this. I would assume that for any SOC classification change there is a before -> after mapping available - but this is kinda specific to your SOC classification.

imdeng: For codes which changed since 2009, do USCIS compare and see ?

Thanks!

[idliman]

It is Aug 14th and no visa bulletin yet?

[canada]

It is Aug 14th and no visa bulletin yet?

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2019.html

EB2- 8th May,2009.
EB1-unavailable
EB3 -1st July 2005

[idliman]

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2019.html

EB2- 8th May,2009.
EB1-unavailable
EB3 -1st July 2005

Thanks.
EB1IFA ==> U
EB2IFA ==> +6 Days
EB3IFA ==> -184 Days
No change in DF for India (EB1, EB2 & EB3). So in the next year the DF are expected to progress from 22FEB17 (EB1), 08MAY09 (EB2) and 01JUL09 (EB3).

[IamGSN]

Thanks.
EB1IFA ==> U
EB2IFA ==> +6 Days
EB3IFA ==> -184 Days
No change in DF for India (EB1, EB2 & EB3). So in the next year the DF are expected to progress from 22FEB17 (EB1), 08MAY09 (EB2) and 01JUL09 (EB3).

Actually EB3 India was retrogressed by another 6 months, what is CO trying to say in Bulletin ? Will the FA date be imposed back to 01JUL2009 for EB3 India?

============== Bulletine CO Comments
India – Employment First (E1) and Third Preferences (E3): Despite the earlier retrogression of the India E1 and E3 final action dates, USCIS demand for adjustment of status applicants with priority dates earlier than those dates remained excessive. Therefore, it was necessary to make the India E1 final action date “Unavailable” earlier in July, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2019. The India Employment Third preference date has been retrogressed and that date will be imposed immediately.

It is likely that corrective action will also be required for other preferences prior to the end of the fiscal year.

Numbers will once again be available for applicants in the above mentioned preferences beginning October 1, 2019 under the FY-2020 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August.
=============================

[vbollu]

seems, there is no SO got applied to this quarter and end of the FY. I thought Eb2 2009 would be cleared by end of FY, my estimates got wrong.