No one wants to work at USCIS. Holding the pending inventory for a year now and holding the visa that should have been issued by mandatory statute
Crazy corrupt USCIS workers their karma would be paid eternally after death AMEN!!
No one wants to work at USCIS. Holding the pending inventory for a year now and holding the visa that should have been issued by mandatory statute
Crazy corrupt USCIS workers their karma would be paid eternally after death AMEN!!
My PD is September, 2011 EB2 India
Per USCIS in 2018, it would take 5 years to reach January 2011 for EB2 India which should be around October, 2023.
Mr. Oppenheim explained that there are 14,400 “pre-adjudicated” Indian I-485 applications in the EB-2 category that have not yet used an EB-2 number. Because there are approximately 2,800 visas available per year in this category, Mr. Oppenheim estimates that it will take approximately 5 years to process the known Indian demand for applicants with EB-2 Priority Dates earlier than January 2011.
How many pending applicants from January, 2011 to August, 2011? How much time will it take to clear from January, 2011 to August, 2011 without spillovers?
Should PD September, 2011 India stay in EB2 or downgrade to EB3?
Can any gurus share their thoughts.
Not trying to discourage you but... to clear 2009 - it’s going to take 2023 based on July 2018 pending inventory.
There are 1400 and 1400 in May and June 2009 waiting... As of today we have not cleared April 2009 yet.
So May and June 2009 will clear in 2020 and July, August, September 2009 will clear in 2021.
October, November, December 2009 will clear by 2022 or 2023.
Then we have 2010 ... we have around 4700 Pending... so it takes 2025 to clear April2010
The above is applicable if you stay in EB2 but you wait and see how EB3 is moving ahead and if it crosses September 2011- try to downgrade to EB3.
The problem is we don’t have latest PI and everything is uncertain
The other issue is people already on EAD filed in 2012 might not want to downport and go through the interview
Good luck
Given the current movement, it seems it could be anywhere between 2025 and 2030. BTW, my PD is also in 2011.Originally Posted by waitlist
Well, in another 11 years, I can have my son sponsor meThe only other way we can get it sooner is if a bill passes in Congress that relieves us from this slavery
The statement in the article is not consistent with clearing pending applications with a PD prior to January 2011 in 5 years @ 2,803 approvals per year.
No applications are pending beyond April 2010 and the 14,400 figure is fairly consistent with known pending applications to that date.
PERM certifications started to rise sharply for India after this time.
There were 5,583 Indian PERM certifications with a PD of Jan-Apr 2010. These have translated to 4,677 pending EB2-I I-485 applications in the July 2018 USCIS Inventory (a factor of 83.77%).
If we use the known EB2-I pending applications for May 2009 - April 2010 from the July 2018 Inventory (13,567) and then use the above factor on PERM certifications after that date, there would be 45,778 I-485 pending for EB2-I before September 2011.
At 2,803 approvals / year, this would imply around a 16 year wait. At 6,000 approvals / year this would reduce to around 7.5 years.
I don't do predictions, so the above is just an example so that you can play around with the figures and assumptions should you wish to.
The PERM certification data can be found here.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
WOW!!!!
So I checked the PERM certifications for 2009 and there are none as per the link you mentioned. Does my analysis hold true that without spillover- I am looking at June 2021 to get my August 2009 date current with 2800 GC for EB2 ? There are 1400 for May and 1400 for 2009 June, 2009 July-900, August 800 PI
Thanks
The certifications are in this thread (Post #3 for 2009), but you already have the Inventory for 2009.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
@Canada and @WaitList
Check the below posts to derive the estimated waiting period:
#4905
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ll=1#post61996
#4912
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ll=1#post62005
also #4911
I read the link from gc1999 and he mentioned
"People who have already in EB2 with 485 EAD and employer not ready for downgrade , stay put. Next 1 year its possible to clear Aug/Sep 2009. Beyond that its doubtful
Other wise explore options, try to get a EB3 PERM and then use a complete I140 and get GC faster. "
Now I have an approved I-140 from a teaching hospital in medical field and cannot downgrade to EB3 but does not have EAD
Does anyone know if USCIS Field Office will schedule an interview for EB based 485 application while the priority date is NOT current? Or does the Filed Office schedule and conduct the interview based on 485 filing and approve the application when the priority date becomes current?
My I-485 EB interview was scheduled when my PD was not current(There were many people whose interviews were scheduled when they weren't current as well for EB).
I am a novice in the US immigration terminology. So the PERM numbers only matter from April 2010 and since I am August 28,2009 EB2- India, I would base my calculations only on PI of July 2018. If the PI numbers are true and no spillover and NO downporting from EB2 to EB3, I could be expecting to be current in 1.5-2 years. Today I learnt something new about these PERM numbers and the situation is really terrible for someone after April 2010. Thanks for explaining Spectator
canada,
You're on the right track. What you will find frustrating, is the assumptions you have to make without good evidence to make them.
I think everyone is very frustrated that USCIS have reverted to their old ways and don't want to release any information publicly.
With the change in the way I-485 are processed at Field Offices (FO, rather than Service Centers (SC), the Inventory data had become less useful, but not useless.
Below summarizes the data on I-485 pending inventory from one of the reports that is still published.
--------- USCIS PENDING I-485 INVENTORY ---------
FY -- QTR ------ FO --------- SC ---------- Total
2016 - Q1 ----- 3,814 ----- 121,347 ----- 125,161
2016 - Q2 ----- 3,196 ----- 121,391 ----- 124,587
2016 - Q3 ----- 4,056 ----- 116,772 ----- 120,828
2016 - Q4 ----- 4,440 ----- 124,984 ----- 129,424
2017 - Q1 ----------- UNKNOWN ----------- 138,219
2017 - Q2 ----- 4,228 ----- 134,119 ----- 138,347
2017 - Q3 ----- 4,275 ----- 144,272 ----- 148,547
2017 - Q4 ----- 9,614 ----- 139,768 ----- 149,382
2018 - Q1 ---- 27,843 ----- 114,734 ----- 142,577
2018 - Q2 ---- 47,591 ----- 115,084 ----- 162,675
2018 - Q3 ---- 72,311 ------ 76,868 ----- 149,179
2018 - Q4 ---- 89,247 ------ 71,776 ----- 161,023
2019 - Q1 ---- 90,895 ------ 63,721 ----- 154,616
2019 - Q2 ---- 97,916 ------ 50,474 ----- 148,390
The report always shows zero for NBC.
Perhaps it's also worth noting that the recent reductions are probably illusory.
EB1 was Current for all Countries until April 2018. By the end of FY2019 - Q2, the latest pending I-485 for EB1-IC would be March 2018 and the latest pending I-485 for EB1-ROW would be July 2018.
Since those dates, EB1 approvals would reduce the pending figure but there have been no new additions for EB1 to the pending inventory.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks for the reply.
I am good at analyzing PERM data or pending inventory data.
How many pending applications in EB2 and EB3 from now till December, 2011 and then from January to September, 2011 based on last available inventory data?
It makes me wonder why would Mr. Oppenheimer make that statement as he has access to data that is available in public (and data available only to him) and can deduce it correctly. What did he miss when he made that deduction?
While it is good to look till 2011, I have to point out to downgrade scenario where the numbers get duplicated in both EB2 and EB3. EB3 I was predicted 1-3 months movement in February and it came to a grinding halt for the last 3 months. Last bulletin it was predicted that ROW is having a big demand. It might be a pointer that EB3 I might not get more than 3000, far cry from the 6000's we got in 2017 and 2018.
The 2-3 days nonsensical movement for EB2I ensured that even people with EAD in EB2 started doing the downgrade, in addition to the people till April 2010 who started their downgrade when the filing dates were getting accepted. This mess is going to sustain for a longer duration without any meaningful immigration reform, no matter whatever analytical and reasonable deductions we come up with.
If there is no visibility or No demand data available in EB3-India , why was EB3-I not made current like ROW?. By not making EB3-India current will only make me conclude that CO and USCIS know the demand (or) There is a heavy downgrade porting from EB2 India to EB3 India.
Just a gentle reminder that this is the EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) thread.
If people want to post about Bill and Politics, then do so in the correct thread.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...s-amp-Politics
If you choose not to, then the posts will be moved there.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Hi Spectator - how would you calculate when Jan 1st 2010 EB3I will be current? I would like to know the strategy you would use to do this. Thank you.
I wouldn't attempt to.
There's no information to use and too many assumptions to be made.
I wouldn't really do it for EB2-I either, but at least there is some historical data on "actual" numbers from when the PD surpassed July 2007.
That doesn't exist for EB3-I because the new FO processing was already in place and those numbers never hit any Inventory Reports.
The latest Cut Off Date allowed for filing an EB3-I I-485 was 01APR10 in January 2019. I don't think anyone has any idea of how many applications were received for the period August 2007 to March 2010. Without even the barest information, everything is guesswork, not prediction.
There's no data about the any effect of the EB3-I PD being ahead of EB2-I and how that might affect the numbers.
One effect I have noticed is on the number of EB3-I Consular Processed approvals.
The Filing Cut Off date exceeded July 2007 in October 2017 for CP cases. In FY2017 and prior years, there were approx. 150-200 EB3-I CP cases approved per year.
In FY2018, this rose to about 750 cases.
In FY2019 up to the end of May the figure stands at 1,365.
Without knowing that information, would you (or could you) have guessed it?
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spectator - thank you for your inputs.
Sure Spec, I will also try not to put feeders for political and bills while doing the calculations.
Quick question on cross charge-ability: If my EB2-I PD is May 2010 and my wife applies in EB1B-I, can we take advantage of the earlier PD filing jointly or can she only file when the primary's EB1-I date is current? TIA!
Unfortunately, priority date retention does not allow the transfer of one priority date to another spouse.
A Priority Date is attached to an individual whose I-140 has been approved ("the alien") and can't be cross charged to a spouse ("a different alien") approved I-140.
You could have a subsequent EB1 EB2 or EB3 petition approved and claim your May 2010 PD for it.8CFR 204.5
(e) Retention of section 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) priority date.
(1) A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) [EB1, EB2 or EB3] of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under section 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple approved petitions under section 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date.
Your wife can't claim your PD where she will be the primary applicant because she is using her own I-140 approval as the basis to file I-485.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I thought about it. And while this technically and legally may be correct; this can easily be circumvented by
a) The EB2 person filing as beneficiary with the EB1 spouse. EB2 person certainly retains his 2010 PD and thus gets approved.
b) The EB1 spouse can get approved immediately using "follow to join" rules as long as spouse was on EB2's application as beneficiary. This #2 please consult with lawyers. I am not entirely sure about this.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Hi Spec
qn on this - how do you know that C/P 2019 cases are that high until May?
Just curious - my p/d is early May 2009 EB3-I and I still haven't gotten an interview - trying to figure out how many people are ahead and at C/P if thats possible.
Also read somewhere that eb3-I approvals haven't cleared April 2009 yet - heavy demand and not sure how much but the FA date has been stalled and won't move this f-year means there is demand ?
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