Downgrade from EB-2 2009 dates will be still low. Only a very few employers will file the downgrade application for EB-2 2009 if any. The real pressure will come from EB-2 2010 date onward.Originally Posted by iatiam
Downgrade from EB-2 2009 dates will be still low. Only a very few employers will file the downgrade application for EB-2 2009 if any. The real pressure will come from EB-2 2010 date onward.
Never say never with this current climate but I think this is a bit different as regards to our kids sponsoring us. Taking away one of the rights of a natural born US Citizen hopefully will not and should not be that easy.
True, but anyway this possibility is years away, with most of our kids not even in teens I presume. Its way better to go abroad for a year and try for EB1C. I was hopeful for many years, now the hope is dead
USCIS working to fasten 485 processing. This means you can get interview calls from FO's that are not in your service area.
https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/us...-400-and-i-485
The sad summary for EB2I is that the movement is 26MAR09 (OCT18) to 24APR09 (JUL19). So in 10 bulletins, we had 29 days of movement. An average of 2.9 days movement per bulletin.
EB3I on the other hand moved from 01JAN09 (OCT18 bulletin) to 01JUL09 (JUL19 bulletin). Yay! we have 6 months of movement in 10 bulletins. About 0.6 month or 18 days of movement per bulletin on an average.
Doesn't Look Good Fellas!! Current check-in with Charlie Oppenheim.
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
I'm hoping they at-least accept dates for Filing for a month or two. What is the possibility of that happening ?
Yup - no horizontal spillovers, no vertical spillovers. It looks pretty bleak out there.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Looks like Phillipines is the culprit for this. If Phillipines syncs with ROW, then expect good SO next FY.
... talking about years like they are days.
Looks like downgrading to EB3 will not help much for EB2-I candidates as there is not much movement expected for EB3-India in near future. Going to be same wait time in either category for people in April - June and waiting to file I-485. Is there any chance of any little movement in August and September Bulletin for EB3-India?
For EB2I, we are in 24APR09. From the current trend, it looks like we might reach 01MAY09 in this fiscal year. For EB3I, because of the downward porting, CO is not able to move dates drastically. I think he already has an understanding of the demand for EB3I till end of 2009. So there is no need for him to move the dates to generate demand data.
It makes more sense to group EB2I and EB3I into a single pool from now on wards. Adding May09 to September09 EB2I inventory comes up to 5615 (closer to the annual limit of 5606). This excludes inventory of EB3I. As EB3I is already in 01JUL09, there cannot be more than 1000 individuals still waiting in queue. So the safest (most conservative) prediction for year 2020 is for EB2I to reach 01SEP09 by October2020. My guess is that EB3I may move 4 to 6 months and reach 01DEC09 by end of 2020 fiscal year.
EB2I Inventory-------------Cumulative
May-09----------1429
June-09----------1411------2840
July-09-----------968-------3808
August-09--------801-------4609
September-09---1006-------5615
October-09------1127-------6742
November-09----1000-------7742
December-09----1148-------8890
PD's moving further than this assumes Spillover. I cannot see any horizontal or vertical spillovers as of now.
Till April 30th we had only under 2200 numbers for EB2, that too from July 2018 bulletin. We are still not passed April, which indicates the usage has not even reached the mandated minimum of 2803/4. If we factor in the EB2-India visa's issued in the last quarter of FY 18 this would be even lesser. Any PD less than 1st June 2009 clearly indicates loss of mandatory visa's, or a lot of derivative dependents were added later.
Your safest( most conservative) prediction says September 1st by October 2020 but without any spillover how can EB2 India cross July 1st? Every year EB2 India receives only 2800.. with May and June having around 2840 pending.
Please correct me if I am missing something
Also with July, August, September pending cases -968+801+1006=2775- September 1st, 2009 by October 2021. Am I wrong in my calculations
With the drama USCIS is playing with not releasing the PI and a very hostile administration due to the GC interviews— it is a nightmare without any legislative relief
I agree. For the math, I had grouped EB2I and EB3I numbers; 2803*2=5606; As people will be porting heavily and more likely have applications in both queues, I had assumed that both queues will essentially be the same in the next year.
Earlier most people had the thinking of PDs are within a few months and can wait in one queue. However recently it is becoming clear that every 3 months in EB2I adds up to one year or more delay.
Ace's comments about visa's being lost makes me hope that they will move EB2I in the next two bulletins. I still don't understand visa's being wasted by CO. Why?
Now I understand why you grouped the two categories- as EB3 is practically empty. But the real test is will CO move EB3 aggressively? No. He will give excuses after excuses. I realize that basically EB3 is 473 cases pending as per July PI. Either they are bluffing with these numbers or just keeping us in the dark.
If someone who has EB2 India before March 2010 with their I485 Pending, I believe they rather want to carry on until their date becomes current as they can avoid interviews due to the fear or uneasiness. So these people might just stay put.
My question is why can’t EB3 be current for India with only 473 cases pending, while EB2 has 15000
Will we ever go back to 2 week movement per Bulletin any time soon ?
Off Topic Question -
A person sponsored for GC by company A left after 2 years of filing I-485 and joined company B. Company A withdrew underlying I-140 in 2014, he quit company B after 5 years and joined company A again. is he eligible for AC 21?
That's if you assume the pending inventory for July 2018 was accurate. And, you didn't factor CP cases.
I,for one, hope to have a little movement in EB3 India in Aug/Sep bulletin. So I can be greened.....
I think you are overthinking it. The three conditions for doing an AC21 are:
- I-140 has been approved, or is approvable when filed concurrently with I-485
- Form I-485 has been pending for at least 180 days.
- The proposed employment is in the "same or similar" occupational classification
Once the I485 has been pending for 180 days, you can do AC21. You can decide to inform USCIS whenever you want officially that you have ported by filing I485-J. This is my understanding; You may want to clarify this with your attorney.
bluelabel: Someone had original application (I485) with company A, then went places (B or C) and rejoined company A. In my opinion, as far as USCIS is concerned for I485 there is nothing you need to do. USCIS sent the pre-adjudicated I485 application to storage (archiving) and whenever you renew EAD+AP, they just verify that the application is pending. They don't care about anything else and don't have to know where you are now. When the PD is current (or going to be current), then USCIS is going to ask for medicals + I485J.
If you had already filed AC21 with companies B or C, then you might have to do it again.
Always please consult with your attorney.
There is a legitimate concern by OP since company A field for I140and then withdrew it.
That could be argued that they hired back in a position created later . Curious what lawyers will say about it:
EB-2 I Priority Date - 06/19/2009 I-485 Filed - 10/2015
A basic search leads to Fragomen's analysis:
https://www.fragomen.com/insights/al...e-takes-effect
Portability and Priority Date Retention for I-140 Beneficiaries
The new regulation eases the impact of I-140 petition revocations and codifies certain longstanding agency policies on I-140 job portability.
A foreign national whose I-140 petition has been approved for 180 days or more will not have the petition automatically revoked if the employer goes out of business or withdraws the petition on or after January 17, 2017. However, the foreign national will need a new job offer or a new I-140 petition to obtain employment-based permanent residence.
An I-140 beneficiary whose petition is revoked will be able to use the priority date for a subsequent I-140 petition, unless the reason for revocation was fraud, material misrepresentation, invalidation or revocation of the underlying labor certification or material error in the approval of the petition.
Consistent with prior policy, the beneficiary of a pending I-140 will be able to port to new employment after his or her adjustment of status application has been pending for 180 days or more, as long as the pending I-140 petition was approvable when filed and remained approvable for 180 days after the filing of the adjustment application.
The person's I-140 is revoked by company A in 2014(prior to Jan 17 2017) because the person quit. Now they re-hired him after 5 years on EAD, will he be eligible for AC21? The confusion is it's the same company that sponsored his original I-140 so why AC21 will come into picture here. One lawyer advised to re apply I-140 again with the same labor approved 9.5 years ago.
Consulate Processing for Indian EB2 for the last 3 years are 72,75 and 82. 10 times increase in CP for 2008? I doubt.
And July 18th data numbers is consistent with the numbers from the year 2014.
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